Better get busy in the futures market then. 20x short. You'll make a killing 

Correct, the average user will not even notice the change should it occur.

I would enjoy some additional selling into my orders, though. However once no sellers exist at these levels and volume/volatility begin to dry up, the path of least resistance is up.

Last time I checked, Bitcoin is still functioning as intended.

I'm also endlessly fascinated with the time people waste here, whether they are actual trolls with an agenda or just kids with nothing better to do. In the case of one famous troll, she is a truly disturbed individual.

Talk is cheap boys. The market is telling a different story, showing good relative strength at this level.

NY residents needed to withdraw their BTC from Bitfinex by 4pm Eastern today or the balances would be converted to USD. About 250 BTC in shorts opened this last hour...I overheard lots of fud in the chatrooms about the "Finex dump" so let the gamblers gamble...

I can think of many worse outcomes. One could think of it as input from an intelligent mind uniquely positioned to give relevant feedback.

It would be nice if Satoshi would weigh in on the debate now that it has come to a head with Mike's release of XT. The last time he did was in response to the media potentially using the Dorian Nakamoto story to discredit Bitcoin in a big way. This issue seems more pressing.

I'm sure he's out there watching closely. Maybe his silence says it all.

I think it's important not to get wrapped up in the specific shapes and minutiae of chart patterns. What they represent and their context in the larger market cycle is more important.

A cup & handle is simply a U-shaped accumulation range. A shallow correction occurs (the handle) at the top resistance on lower volume, then the price continues its upward momentum which was built up within the accumulation.

As long as the price stays above the 200 day MA we are safe. Considering the market's recent hardening of support at and above that level by the guys who did the accumulating, higher prices from this point forward is probably a good bet.

Altcoins are largely a way for traders to increase their BTC which is what everyone wants at the end of the day. Even protocols like Ethereum with tremendous potential are not immune to market forces--Counterparty was there months ago with Overstock et all "on board" and nothing big came of it except the usual pump and dump.

Never fall in love with an altcoin--it is not different this time.

When the market is ready--that is when enough strong hands hold most of the bitcoins, small amounts of demand buying into very little selling can push the price by large amounts.

That means a strong surge up but not necessarily parabolic. The market has more price discovery mechanisms now (futures, margin trading, etc) than in 2013 so the rise may not get past $1000 until next year. I'm anticipating a move to $400-$500 in the coming months though--the price has bottomed and wound itself up for at least that much

The goal of accumulation (if you're a professional investor type) is to spread out your buying so you average your holdings near the middle of the range. It depends on how early or late you enter the market (the guys buying the selling climax get the best price and quantity but take on more risk). There are likely multiple syndicates and other professional groups among us, we just don't see them and they are quietly supporting the price and sucking up supply, giving us higher lows and increasingly strong rallies. When they begin strategically deploying their resources (and those bid walls) to advertise Bitcoin to the greater investing community, watch out. Until then they are happy to provide generous support near their average buy price, my guess $200-$250.

The margin longs don't bother me too much, as most of them seem well capitalized and won't budge save for a super mega crash, which has a very low likelihood of happening. Many of them are owned by great traders as you'll generally see a few million of the longs decrease instead of increase during big rallies. This is profitable behavior. Contrast this to shorts who tend to pile on during every little dip and get burned having to cover at higher prices--very unprofitable, reactionary and amateur. It's easy to see who the strong hands are in this case.

Since no one else is mentioning it, the DJIA crossed a significant technical milestone today to the downside.

Already down 250+ points.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-death-cross-is-a-bearish-omen-for-the-stock-market-2015-08-11

That would certainly be interesting to implement. A free market of price discovery mechanisms would certainly act to stabilize the price.

The famous "bubble graph" we all know and love represents large market cycles which are driven by supply and demand and human fear in most every asset class. In retrospect on they will all resemble this pattern. The exception to this are the big indices (DJIA, S&P) in which the underperformers are constantly being replaced. With those, you get a graph that is more or less up over a very long period (which is kind of misleading when you think about it).

The run up to the peak of the bubble (bull market) is caused by lack of supply and increased demand. Higher prices bring in more demand because humans fear a poor position in life--they buy to get rich.

The run down to the trough of the bubble (bear market) is caused by excess supply and decreasing demand. Lower prices decrease demand and increase supply from the same people who bought to get rich. As their dreams are dashed, they become fearful and tend to sell.

Price cycles are governed by the floating supply of the asset and the qualities of the people who own it. As the bubble gets going, sentiment improves and price increases but this also spreads the available supply around to those rushing in from all corners to get rich. These people are weak hands. As the bubble deflates, the supply consolidates back into the strong hands, or high quality owners intent on holding long-term who will not be shaken out as easily on bad news or lower prices.

This is also the reason bear markets take longer to play out--near market tops the supply float is held by a large number of people so it takes longer to distribute on the market. In contrast, just before a bull market at the bottom, the supply is consolidated into very few hands ready to sell to the public. This doesn't take as long once the spark of greed has been ingnited.

If it walks and quacks like a duck...

Who knows if that's the case here, but programmers and hackers with big egos thinking they can trade seems to be a significant part of the landscape.

Such is capitalism and the competition of ideas where the preminent ones ultimately win out.

I'm not as concerned with the blocksize debate as some, but I certainly understand the need to begin and continue the dialogue about it.

Things tend to move quickly to their place and calmly in their place. The problem will eventually be solved, but the outcome may not be predictable at this point in time.

Because the market is resting after a big "no supply" rally from $220. And there is still not enough selling to bring the price much below $275 because it was getting vacuumed up during the past six months while the price was low. During that time Bitcoin ownership quietly changed from panicky "moon kid" get-rich-quick types to well informed, high quality long-term holders. Add a little demand from whales, traders and a dash of fomo... you start seeing bullish behavior.

That is the whole point of accumulation--to corner the market of floating supply so that by the time Joe Blow notices and wants to buy the stock/security will be triple the price.

Trendlines get broken frequently when market goes sideways into reaccumulation (or distribution). The important thing to watch for is whether supply gets absorbed inside of this range. One usually sees volume/volatility dry up when this happens as the lack of selling limits the actions of traders. Then price is free to move up.

These thoughts are from a collection of texts written by Charles Dow, Richard Wyckoff, Edwin LeFevre, Hank Pruden, Tom Williams and many others... also they are from my own years of experience in trading and pattern recognition and analysis. Most good ideas originate from others, don't they? When I teach my students the structure of Mozart symphonies or perform in an opera I do not claim to have originated the idea of western musical analysis, chord structure or the principles of human vocal acoustics and production that originated hundreds of years ago, nor do I have to quote them and provide sources to validate the performance. That's ridiculous.

But yes, just for you, just because you woke up on the wrong side of the bed I'll be sure to send an annotated bibliography just as soon as possible.

No surprise that the bears are out trying to short the rally that is bringing the seven month accumulation and bear market to an end. The problem here for them is that overall, the "team" involved with Bitcoin right now is relatively small after the long bear market and the public disinterest associated with falling prices. The bearish subdivision of this team is even smaller. This makes downward market movements have low volume and without a large effect on price: There is simply not enough selling to overcome whatever demand has been left over and the price tends to drift upwards. Once a little demand is added the price will want to enter a very clean and extended rally.

Think of the bear market as making the bears' team roster smaller and smaller over time as the overarching supply (left over from those who bought during the top distribution and the panic selling that comes along with lower prices) that kept the price down is gradually absorbed at lower and lower prices. A bull market is the opposite and does the same with bulls: Their team gets smaller as the buying climax approaches and demand begins to dry up. This is when most people are the most bullish, but in reality there is tremendous supply being thrown at the market from the informed interests who bought near the bottom and the high prices cannot be sustained. There are important psychological factors at work as to why this happens, e.g. the weak hands who buy near the top and get burned who panic sell during a selling climax at a loss, and the panic buying of those on the sidelines during a buying climax who cannot stand to see their friends getting rich without them.

The market price of any asset is unpredictable to most because they attempt to fit it into their view of what the underlying asset (in this case Bitcoin) should be instead of what it is and think that the fundamentals should always be reflected in the market during price discovery. This is overcomplication. The only reliable market predictions are made by studying supply and demand removing imperfect human opinion, expectation and hyperbole.

There comes a time in every asset and every market where supply has dried up to a degree that the price can rise easily--the end of a bear market. There also comes a time where demand dries up, causing the price to fall easily--the end of a bull market. There are also people who understand this dynamic, long-term relationship, how it effects human emotions and attempt to profit from it. This is largely the reason why many stocks and securiteis do not always reflect their "fundamental" value (whatever that is) so humans attempt to search out positive or negative news to fit their view of why the price is rising or falling.