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421  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 23, 2015, 08:27:01 PM
One person's ignorance is another's enlightenment. You're going to have a long road ahead of you if you engage everyone who, by your own judgement, has been deemed ignorant. You will rarely change someone's mind with words anyway... actions are much more effective.

Nah, ignorance is pretty much just ignorance. Anyway, it's less about convincing that person and more about convincing others who might think the bullshit that person is slinging around sounds reasonable.

As for actions, does "flaming them to rubble" count?

BillyJoe is from the deep South. Have you been? Bigotry is cultural there. On the other hand, so is kindness, so he'd probably give you the coat off his back and full access to his amazing liquor stash even though you've been berating him for pages and pages Wink
422  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 23, 2015, 07:43:34 PM
Why should I have to tolerate ignorance? There's enough of it in this world, and it probably won't stop even if it's being fought, but it definitely won't stop if the people who try to avoid ignorant views simply roll over to it.

One person's ignorance is another's enlightenment. You're going to have a long road ahead of you if you engage everyone who, by your own judgement, has been deemed ignorant. You will rarely change someone's mind with words anyway... actions are much more effective.
423  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 23, 2015, 06:13:57 PM
I'd rather have off topic discussion than pages of low quality troll posts.
424  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis never ends on: February 23, 2015, 04:23:34 PM
I think if I've learned anything about trading, it's that the market rarely behaves the same way twice!
425  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 20, 2015, 10:08:26 PM
seems to be holding, weirdly enough.

The only thing preventing higher prices is the amount of selling...

The only thing preventing lower prices is the amount of buying...
426  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 20, 2015, 10:00:37 PM
....and then what happens to the dead scout?

I think you missed the point.
427  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 20, 2015, 09:57:25 PM
hi guys!

you are not able to break 250.  Cry


THE “JUMP” ACROSS THE CREEK” ANALOGY

The term “jump” was first used by Robert G. Evans, who piloted the Wyckoff Associates educational enterprise for numerous years after the death of Richard D. Wyckoff. One of his more captivating analogies was the “jump across the creek” (JAC) story he used to explain how a market would break out of a trading range. In the story, the market is symbolised by a Boy Scout, and the trading range by a meandering creek, with its “upper resistance line” defined by the rally peaks within the range. After probing the edge of the creek and discovering that the flow of supply was starting to dry up, the Boy Scout would retreat in order to get a running start to “jump across the creek.” The power of the movement by the Boy Scout would be measured by price spread and volume.

Defining the Jump

A jump is a relatively wider price-spread move made on comparatively higher volume that penetrates outer resistance or support. A backup is a test that immediately follows the jump – a relatively narrow price-spread reaction or rally on comparatively lighter volume that tests and confirms the legitimacy of the preceding jump action.


does this work backwards?   Undecided

jump - > dip

Absofruitly.

When it works backwards, the Boy Scout is instead testing support, which in a distribution trading range is indicated as "ice" instead of a "creek." The Scout tests and eventually falls through on heavier selling and is unable to break back above the ice, and the price drowns.

As we are probably not in a distribution trading range (strong buy support, little downward movement on shakeouts, plenty of floating supply removed from market following the Bter news) this does not apply.
428  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 20, 2015, 06:19:15 PM
hi guys!

you are not able to break 250.  Cry


THE “JUMP” ACROSS THE CREEK” ANALOGY

The term “jump” was first used by Robert G. Evans, who piloted the Wyckoff Associates educational enterprise for numerous years after the death of Richard D. Wyckoff. One of his more captivating analogies was the “jump across the creek” (JAC) story he used to explain how a market would break out of a trading range. In the story, the market is symbolised by a Boy Scout, and the trading range by a meandering creek, with its “upper resistance line” defined by the rally peaks within the range. After probing the edge of the creek and discovering that the flow of supply was starting to dry up, the Boy Scout would retreat in order to get a running start to “jump across the creek.” The power of the movement by the Boy Scout would be measured by price spread and volume.

Defining the Jump

A jump is a relatively wider price-spread move made on comparatively higher volume that penetrates outer resistance or support. A backup is a test that immediately follows the jump – a relatively narrow price-spread reaction or rally on comparatively lighter volume that tests and confirms the legitimacy of the preceding jump action.
429  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 20, 2015, 06:26:33 AM
jameson was involved in the first 132.79585631 purchase

no alcohol involved in the second purchase

go big or go home



Geez, the USD swap rate is getting up there. Slow your roll, Camo. That's a perfectly reasonable purchase, but we need to consolidate in this range for a while before the assault on $250. If we get much higher, take some profit and get back in 4 or 5 dollars lower.

Get one like that right and you'll be financially set for a few months. And with a strong margin you can essentially wait for the market to come to you and ignore the small moves and shakeouts. With a couple large crashes in the background going long and waiting it out is not a bad option. (Assess your risk first, as always, and don't be dumb about it... learn how to read the market... and don't risk the farm if you're only playing with a couple chips.)

Enjoying some Corbières wine, watching the price inch slowly upwards...
430  Economy / Speculation / Re: The bears are losing their grip on: February 19, 2015, 11:21:25 PM
Bull markets occur once enough coins/stock have been transferred from weak to strong hands. The huge transfer that occurred when we dipped to $166 was likely the last of the weak hands letting go, not being able to withstand any more losses. We haven't seen any interest to retest sub $200--there is simply not the volume to get there, and whales will not waste money trying if they can't attract much of a following when they sell.

TL;DR:  Suck it bears.  Grin

I'm not convinced of that at all. There was a squeeze of margin longs who were overleveraged. That's all I know for sure. The beneficiaries of that squeeze could just as easily do it again should market conditions dictate.

Maybe, but whales need a reason to move the market to get others to follow (usually good or bad news). They can't simply orchestrate a rally or crash without a window of opportunity to act upon. It must be cost effective for them.

They needed a long bear market to squeeze the longs and create a panic over the Bitstamp news. Think of it as the final movement of a symphony. If they randomly created another crash tomorrow, not enough sellers would follow because they don't exist. There is no momentum. Play the last movement of a symphony by itself to a professional musician and it doesn't make sense without the context of the preceding movements.
431  Economy / Speculation / Re: The bears are losing their grip on: February 19, 2015, 10:59:46 PM
Bull markets occur once enough coins/stock have been transferred from weak to strong hands. The huge transfer that occurred when we dipped to $166 was likely the last of the weak hands letting go, not being able to withstand any more losses. We haven't seen any interest to retest sub $200--there is simply not the volume to get there, and whales will not waste money trying if they can't attract much of a following when they sell.
432  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 18, 2015, 05:29:16 PM
Get your fiat cannons ready, gentlemen.



Still relevant... we got a little shakeout into the middle of the trading range while I was sleeping. We might test lower but watch the volume. If it's not high, don't get spooked.

Shakeouts are low volume drops to "test" the market. If you're a whale, you hate weak hands that ruin your rallies. So you can dump a bunch of coins and the market immediately tells you a story. Any sellers left? If yes, another shakeout is in order. If no, safe to go up. As a bonus you get to catch stops below the market that lock traders into poor positions. This is good because they will panic buy later.

Of course it could be miners dumping but to get the best price you'd set limit orders. There is great slippage market selling that many coins and if you're a miner, there is no interest in pushing the price down with large market sells, the price is low enough as it is!
433  Other / Politics & Society / Re: What does the Gov't really know about UFOs and ET's? on: February 18, 2015, 04:49:09 AM
We may not be alone, but the universe is so old that Earth's time is but a brief moment. Similar intelligent civilizations have probably existed, but if it was a long time ago in a galaxy far, far away, we will never know them. Even if a civilization has survived long enough to master space travel, the chance that our time periods and galactic proximity line up is extremely low.
434  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 18, 2015, 02:01:53 AM
Get your fiat cannons ready, gentlemen.

435  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 18, 2015, 12:51:50 AM
Clearly there are more than a few people on the wrong side of the market here.

To me it is not a market. It is an escape from fiat slavery. Go crypto and leave the Global Bankster Ponzi Fiat World behind.

I agree, but people try to trade to increase their holdings and allow themselves to be caught in bad trades. Look at the trading simulator thread, only a few out of 60 are actually profitable, everyone else is getting whipsawed and falling for the same old tricks.
436  Economy / Speculation / Re: Speculation Troll Rant on: February 18, 2015, 12:45:19 AM
Ignore is the best weapon. You wouldn't give them your attention in real life, why do it on a forum?
437  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 18, 2015, 12:43:06 AM
Clearly there are more than a few people on the wrong side of the market here.
438  Economy / Speculation / Re: ETA on the ETF? on: February 17, 2015, 07:14:55 PM
I think Gemini is probably something the SEC would very much like to see, as in, they were told they needed a licensed, bonded exchange with expertly-implemented security best practices before approval would be imminent.

I do wonder why people get nervous at the idea of "Wall Street" getting into Bitcoin. Wall Street is a collection of investors, investment related businesses, hedge funds, trading desks, etc. They generally will not be concerned with manipulating the market, rather they will want customers to invest in their crypto portfolios and services. It's a win for Bitcoin. The trading will be left to large pocketed individuals and groups, and probably many of the whales you see today will still be active. The best traders now will be the professional market makers of the future.
439  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 15, 2015, 09:14:32 PM
Shorting after obvious absorption volume. Seems like a good plan. /s
440  Economy / Speculation / Re: Critical Levels - EW analysis on: February 15, 2015, 03:11:40 AM
From a non EW perspective there is little chance we will see sub $100. I think this is where EW analysis falls down honestly, as if looking at arbitrary (albeit possible) market patterns will explain what the largest and most influential traders are doing in this market, because it does not.

I look at things from a supply and demand perspective. The market makers have been accumulating this whole time and once they are ready (and attempts to shake out the market further have failed), mark the price up. It is cheaper to do once there is little to no selling left and they know this. They essentially have cornered the market and have absorbed all floating supply from the weak hands. The logical next step is to initiate a bull market to better their wallets.

So if efforts to mark down the price below $200 have failed (too expensive), what would cause them to dump down to $100? Even they can't fight the demand below $210, and they certainly are not in the business of losing money. Trading against the market is a really good way to go broke, so they won't do it.
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