A H&S top needs expanding volume to the downside (after the head forms) to confirm it as a distribution pattern. So you'd want to see more volume on the right shoulder.

H&S volume does not measure up. Volume has steadily decreased on the way down from the head and the right shoulder where it should increase. OBV has been making higher highs during the same period.

Bottom tested three times (at least) on declining volume over the past few weeks. This trading range was shakeout city.

Moving averages diverge all the time, which is all MACD really is, calculating the difference between two lines and turning it into momentum.

Seems like a shakeout to me. Volume has been steadily declining as we are nearing the end of the trading range, similar to Dec 2014. The difference then is that we had the Bitstamp hack to bring in sellers to push us lower.

If there's enough volume to get below $235, see you there.

There will be one, and it will start when nobody's expecting it. We'll probably get a month or three of relative stability, or a slow upward price drift, before it happens taking everyone by surprise. Active markets just don't go in straight lines forever.

If you trade with a brain you won't be frequenting tradingview, whaleclub or any other group for that matter, you'll be reading and studying the market on your own. If those guys were making consistent money they wouldn't need to promote themselves to attract a following. And I can guarantee you those guys already know how to trade, set stops correctly, and read the market as it comes at them allowing them to avoid their own advice if it turns out to be false (which is often, no analyst is perfect). The poor lemmings who listen to them will be stuck in poor positions as the market turns against them, not knowing what to do, so they invariably hold, hoping and wishing (and trolling) that the market will come back to them. Eventually they get emotional and let go at the worst possible time. This is how the market eats newb traders.

Don't bother with 15m analysis. We are in an accumulation phase, at least on the longer term (months). They happen after capitulation at market bottoms. A long term distribution will occur at some point in the future, but not until after a strong bull market. Dec-Feb 2013/14 was the big distribution phase after the 2013 bull market. Accumulation generally takes longer than distribution, and we are nearing the final phases of one now started in January. Either bears get their wish and the market shakes down to $200 again before takeoff, or we blast off upwards through spring and summer. It's anyone's guess at this point. In the event of a shakeout many longs (who have proven to be well-capitalized) would continue to hold and more shorts led by dumb money would be opened, only to run for cover on the reversal. In the event of a blast off, the shorts would still run for cover and many more would be opened above $300 only to be destroyed by a new bull market, which always follows an accumulation phase (of course the dumb money does not know this). This is why there are so many well-funded long positions, probably some professional money there. Shorts are the weak hands in both scenarios.

Personally, with the difficulty the market has had selling of recently, my vote is for the blast off. It'll happen just like every other bubble: Supply is removed from remaining weak hands via capitulation, market fails to continue downward as demand is back in control, and price floats up for a few months before gaining steam into a parabolic move. Then distribution and another bear market as all the weak hands who bought at the top bail again, then accumulation and another bull market. Rinse and repeat.

Me too. I think that there's such low volume on Finex that it might simply be the bots keeping price in line with the Chinese exchanges who are range trading. They seem to be much more active lately. Hard to say, really.

Edit: looks like it's breaking upward, no surprise here

I think this "unstable" trollish behavior is primarily those who either missed the boat at single/double digits, sold too early or lost their coin somehow and now are angry and bitter, or can't afford much and see it as an opportunity to better their economic status. Some are trading, talking their books, risking what they already have to make more. Some are simply angry and jealous. Their emotions reflect that they are (or were) invested somehow.

Overall I get the sense that most here are self-interested, trying to increase their stash of a very limited and soon-to-be more expensive digitally-limited commodity.

We're near the bottom of a market cycle that plays out over years, so it is very difficult for many to take a longer-term view. I do think the market will turn around this year, either gradually or violently, which will help sentiment a lot but unfortunately draw in many new users looking to get rich, probably more so than 2013 given Bitcoin's increased publicity. Those that buy near the top will become future weak hands that will drive the subsequent and unavoidable bear market. Those few that stuck out the bear market will now be in a much stronger position. Exciting times if it happens.

It'll happen soon enough if price is continuously finding higher bottoms. The shakeout a few hours ago surprised me, seems there is solid support above $250. I see the obvious (almost too obvious) H&S on the hourly, but the target for a pattern that small is measured from the neckline to the top of the head, so like $252. Not a short I'm going to take after the recent bottom and market strength.

I often sit on positions for weeks, but my trades happen on the daily chart so it involves waiting out a lot of the noise found on lower timeframes. Sometimes you have the luxury of waiting until the market comes back to you, but only if you're reasonably sure that it will, otherwise it's just wishing and hoping (not a good strategy). Sometimes it doesn't and it's more profitable to cut losses and reverse positions. Of course the danger here is that you can get whipsawed to death if you don't catch the trend early enough. It ultimately depends on your trading style. There are no hard and fast rules, but if you're sitting on a losing short position and the market is bullish and telling you there is not a lot of downward pressure, you should think about taking the loss. (Opposite situation would be in a losing long position where there is lots of supply coming in and the market is trending strongly down). There is no shame in this, it's simply the logical thing to do. If you cut your losers short relatively quickly and let the winners ride, you'll be much better off.

Always trade logically, never trade emotionally.

That's what's the derivatives are for. Gain exposure to the price movements, but no worries about learning how to secure bitcoins properly.

Once everyone who wants a slice of the Bitcoin pie buys at these price levels, hold onto your hats. Because once there's nothing left to sell, price goes up.

A formidable indicator on larger timescales.

For the uninitiated, because learning is more fun than trolling:

We got a nice spike but volume fell off as we entered a consolidation period today. This is either the start of a bigger rally or it will simply peter out and correct/consolidate as demand is removed. But not to $220.

Honestly when you get a decent rally after bottom has been tested three times, it's a signal that there's not much left to sell in this price range. Remember the market exists as traders with a finite amount of coins. The success of a rally is defined by the amount of supply that's sold into it, so after a bottom formation you see the price spike up easily, almost in slow motion as there is very little selling by traders as they've either sold already or were sucked into a shakeout near the bottom. Look at the price tonight, it's sitting stably on very low volume with almost no selling. Plenty of buying though. Price drifting up on low volume after supply has been removed is normal and bullish.

That's BurtW, no? He is a pretty well-known localbitcoins trader around here. Obviously setup and then nailed for money laundering... ouch. I feel for the guy and his family.

It's just that we've been over it. Again and again and again. To the point that it seems planned and manipulative, even if its not intended in that way.

Not my problem if you mentally ill mosquitoes keep yourselves in Life's waiting room forever.

Price goes up $20 and suddenly double spends are happening and a mining cartel takeover is imminent.

Get a life guys, or at least take it to the technical development thread where you can share your fears in a thread that's not a troll-fest. Oh wait, there's no one to feed your narcissism there. It only counts as therapy if you're paying $200 an hour you know.

They are free to do any of that now. But a pool that does won't see as much revenue because no one will want to point their miners there, so again there is no incentive.

Jorge, if a minig cartel ever threatened to change the rules of Bitcoin, the value would plummet as everyone jumped ship to a new coin. Why would they ever do it knowing that it would devalue their assets? Miners want bitcoins and need them to have value, or it's a wasteful endeavor.

Btw, have you bought any bitcoins yet? Have you set up a minig rig to see how the incentive structure works?

Talk is cheap.