When the market is moving sideways and supply and demand are in relative harmony, triangles and other continuation patterns are how chartists judge when and where to take a position for the coming move. As they work themselves out, the trading range becomes smaller and smaller because range traders try to front run the other range traders which slowly closes the range, hence the triangle or wedge shape. There are variations whether the continuation range represents accumulation or distribution that will cause them to look a bit different.

At the end of the day, however, it always comes down to the intent, action and sentiment of the traders. TA as pictures on a price chart simply help us visualize this.

If a rally doesn't get sold down it will likely continue up.

Path of least resistance.

If you're a whale with 10k+ coins you still need to be able to read the market like a pro and know when the herd will follow you, or else you'll probably lose it real quick.

I think green volume looks good, rising bottoms since $166 on the daily, couple recent pump attempts from whales taking big positions (knowing that shakeouts don't do a whole lotta good anymore...), desperate gambling bears trying to trade against the market, throwing all they have left at it to protect their short positions...
 
Rockets are getting primed to leave this trading range. $300 right around the corner.

To let the shorts pile up. Whales hate weak hands that sell into rallies, so it's better to run them out at lower prices and gun the stops below the market. Clean out those sellers so the next pump is cost effective.

This is actually how a bull flag works, psychologically. Rally--let market drift down--catch weak handed coins---rally resumes.

This almost never works out for them. Fighting the market is the fastest way to go broke. Shorts pushed the price down so low, now they are surprised when it springs back in their face.

I agree. I'm trying to figure where we'll meet resistance areas... the last trading range from $300-$400 was low volume in comparison, and I imagine most who wanted to get out (capitulate) have already, hence the reason why we are at $280 today. If we pass $315, watch out. That would move us definitively out of this trading range ($200-$300) and into a strong bull move, partially propelled by the 20k who are still short. There will be no mercy for even well-capitalized shorts at those price levels as the hope to return sub $200 will fade into the distance.

Couldn't resist taking advantage of the pre-pump shakeout. And at $266, well, never thought I'd ever get that price again!


Target $350, but we'll see how we do once in the 300s...

Not a good market to be trading on the wrong side of. After capitulation nearly all my trades have been long (one short after $315 local top but that's the only time I've risked one)

Auction price must have been higher than market.

Glad I added to my long at @$265.

Well that came out of nowhere. Bam.

If there is not enough selling in the market, it doesn't matter what that mess of a chart says.

Selling is the only thing that stands in the way of higher prices. And we have been shaking it out of the market for months--It would be risky to trade pullbacks with bears in such a weak position to move the price down very far.

We are coming out of a rising bottom accumulation trading range defined by the crash to $160 and correction to $315... Any available supply has literally been vacuumed out of the market by strong hands. Now that it's just about gone, the market moves up with ease. This idea always confuses bears who think the market is moved by some other force than supply and demand. Indeed it works in reverse at market tops when all the bulls get delusional yet the market is flooded with supply.

If we bust above $300 or $315 on heavy volume and the pullback is weak and on low volume, it's a signal that the bottom is in and a new bull market is beginning. The former resistance line at the top of the trading range is now support. Here we add to longs, not open shorts.

Could be miners, but my bet is on shakeouts. Gotta clean out the bears, catch some stops and encourage the gamblers to open more shorts before going back up (it's cheaper that way and allows for a cleaner pump... also the additional margin calls will spur things along)

Meanwhile LTC creeps back toward $2. Seems that it will rally along with BTC this time.

If we hit that target, I'm going on vacation. I've been trying to warn the shorts since capitulation that floating supply was drying up, nothing to sell, and we would get a markup soon.

edit: probably shouldn't post my trades here.

Longs are getting expensive--my cost of carrying this trade has essentially doubled since a few days ago. It will probably triple and more before I unload.

Lambie, get help.

Nothing wrong with getting happy over the potential end of a year-long bear market. Price moves on supply and demand anyway, the effect of this forum is miniscule.

Bears had their time to frolic in shorting schadenfreude but were unwittingly coiling a spring that would potentially wipe out their profits.

You seem to have a grip on things at least with the experience of a couple of years of market movements. I've seen some guys enter a trade, no matter how risky, just for the thrill of it knowing that they will probably lose. The trading subreddit is full of them.

I knew next to nothing about trading in 2013 too, but how hard is it to pick up a book or two about a potentially life-changing opportunity??

I would have expected more selling around this level, but the pullbacks are very small and short-lived. 6h chart shows expanding green volume. Weekly MACD is green with clear capitulation and accumulation zones behind us.

Everything is pointing to higher prices, yet BTC swaps back up to 20k.

At this point I feel like a decent percentage of the traders in this market have no clue how to read a chart at all, and are straight up gambling addicts.

Yeah owning a boat is expensive as hell. Repairs, fuel, rent, winter storage, crew (if you have a yacht), taxes... you need a steady income for something like that, not a one-time Bitcoin cashout.

Lotto winners and professional athletes/musicians who come from humble beginnings run into this problem all the time---they underestimate how expensive a "rich" lifestyle is. Not to mention you have family and friends who feel entitled to handouts coming out of the woodwork.