Good point that a paper BTC derivitave (like GBTC and COIN) will attract a small but significant sum of money from investors who want to hedge against recessions and market/currency/economic crises. It's yet another tool for portfolio management.

This fact alone puts it on the radar for Wall Street, who make money selling these investment instruments to the public. They have undoubtedly "helped" the bear market due to the fact that there are so many green traders who are easy to shake out.

Think about this: Hedge funds aren't allowed to buy bull markets--in fact this is a great way to lose your job of you work for one--instead they buy down markets. When they buy, they buy low and they make sure to not mark the price up. Why would they make you rich at their expense? If the $200 level holds it's good evidence that these prices are "low" to whomever seeks to build a position in Bitcoin, and they hope to revisit higher price levels in the future.

Seeing how twitchy and hungry for good news this market is, watch everyone fat finger the margin buy button if GBTC begins trading at any price above spot.

These guys want the paper Bitcoin derivitave which is what GBTC is. They want to make money by being liquidity providers of this paper by selling it to their existing customers and any new investors who desire safe (ie regulated) Bitcoin price exposure in their investment portfolios. But they need to buy it first which is what we are seeing here.

Like someone has insider info about institutional demand of GBTC and bought up all the cheap coins for themselves.

Possible front running of GBTC trading?

Crazy BTCe pump. Old school, I like it.

That's what I'm thinking. Someone wants out today, not tomorrow.

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Failure to get above the 30d MA line during the last two rallies is a pretty good indication that the downtrend from $300 still has steam left and will probably test the 78.6 fib level. That's the lowest Fibonacci point, the "line in the sand" if you will. If we break it, watch out. Volume is low as the trading range from January to now is working itself out to completion (to be expected), so it wouldn't be difficult to achieve some panic.

To start the bull engine we either need more demand or liquidate until fewer people hold a larger amount of coins (bought from panic sellers) to reduce supply. A final big shakeout of early adopters and miners below $200 would clear the way for a big bull move.

Looks like one whale wanted to push through the trendline with a bit of volume, but a bigger whale absorbed it all. Market is not going higher with this kind of money capping the price.

He sent 100 from the 70k address. The 70k (minus the 100) is still sitting in the original address. It was simply sent back as change.

Speculation is a huge and vital part of every market. Big currency markets simply have large market caps (in the trillions) so they are less volatile. You need billions, not millions to manipulate those markets.

Bitcoin is still a very young market and is just beginning to show efficient price discovery mechanisms. You joined during a massive speculative bubble so your expectations are high. Give it time.

Everyone uses the live API--bots, web interface, trading software, bitcoin chart sites... Using a bot is only faster because it can make decisions and place orders very quickly. Generally everyone gets the info as it comes, no delay.

I think the analysis of shorts vs longs is useful to know but overused to predict price. Shorts were at ATHs and the market still went down; conversely for longs. Market moves on supply and demand and not much else and those with the most coins and $$$ have the largest effect on price. They still have risk and need to make money so this will push the market in the direction of least resistance, or where obvious technicals point (often this is the same). Whales respect good, time-tested TA (volume, trends, support & resistance, MAs) just as other traders do. This is important as many of them are quite good.

Shorts vs longs may tell a good story but is more of a metric to see how many traders are entering the market to profit than anything else.

I think there's a bit more downside (sorry guys). Technically things aren't looking great unless you can call this low volume chopping around a bottom--I can't. 3d macd solidly in the red. Daily chart bear flag in the works looking a bit foreboding. Whales seem intent on getting a panic shakeout near 200s or lower. Save your longs until then when everyone's freaking out.

NLC, you are one troubled individual. Now I just feel sorry for you.

Before Bitcoin grows up some professional interests need to take positions on the cheap. That's all it is. You wanted Wall Street, well they are here and shaking down the early adopter tree.

The orderbook is not usually a good indicator. It stacked to massive buy support before the last round of dumps as whales were selling into their own bids.

Starting to look ugly if you ask me. If buying pressure does not pick up holders will continue to bail at this price level.

3d MACD crossing red doesn't help.

Nope, mining would simply go back in time a few years.

The point is that H&S top is a distribution pattern so red volume must be increasing on the right side of the pattern. There has to be significant distribution (selling) happening throughout the entire pattern (not just on the neckline break) for the pattern to be valid.