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2181  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: September 17, 2013, 12:42:51 PM


ummm, the same thing is going on at bitstamp. slow and steady stream of 1 btc sells.

thats something like 2-400/hr on each exchange.

its not unusual to see 10,000 - 25,000BTC traded in 1 hour

the sellers selling slowly at market is bullish!



I see no such volume anywhere.

Sellers selling slowly = bullish ?

What world do you live in  Huh

Let me guess: all in land  Wink

Where facts and reason build serve the position.

Or are you just trying to compensate for Falkevinke his all-out 'logic'?  Grin

I think what he means by selling slowly is that no one is taking big dumps, as happened 2x now during the shake out periods.

obviously sellers of stuff for BTC need to liquidate into dollars/euros as 99.9% of the world economy has yet to accept BTC for stuff... so you cannot interpret some selling as lack of faith in BTC but rather merchants needing fiat to pay their invoices.
2182  Economy / Exchanges / Re: MtGox withdrawal delays [Gathering] on: September 17, 2013, 03:48:10 AM
has anyone gone to the IRC chat channel to ask what is current status?
2183  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: September 17, 2013, 03:15:20 AM
Off-topic, but does anybody know what is wrong with blockchain.info charts?  

Like this one with amount of bitcoin in circulation: http://blockchain.info/charts/total-bitcoins?timespan=30days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

Looks like there has been an error since september 5th.

weren't we mining at an accelerated pace the last few months perhaps this is the result of that? or perhaps there is some missing data for about a week or so.

otherwise the chart looks good to me


2184  Economy / Speculation / Re: Is 140$ new 9$? on: September 17, 2013, 02:59:01 AM
Yeah sorry...converting from Canadian in my head.

Still we are meandering around that 100 euro mark.

i am not going to try to find the post now, it is practically impossible, but someone a couple months ago when this current run up started posted a nice analytical piece concluding  that we would plateau at around 100 euro this fall
2185  Economy / Speculation / Re: [Poll] Do you have a life? on: September 17, 2013, 02:55:20 AM
i'm a graduate student so this forum gives me the chance to take a break from intellectual pursuits  Cheesy
2186  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: September 17, 2013, 12:51:27 AM
Check falkvinges article about it. He has his own opinion about this 1 btc sells.

http://falkvinge.net/2013/09/13/bitcoins-vast-overvaluation-seems-to-be-caused-by-usually-illegal-price-fixing/

this article has a number of major flaws

#1 conspiracy theory

there is some cabal of traders- does he mean like a hedge fund operates?

# intent

he is guessing at intent

"splitting an order to give the illusion of many trades, and trading within a group to give the appearance of increased volume"

how about... splitting an order to maximize profit

his whole argument hinges on increased volume, yet there are people on this forum bitchin about lowered volume... huh  Huh

#3 stop loss triggering

" causing more stop losses to trigger "

is anyone aware of any of the major exchanges to have a stop loss feature? as far as i know it does not exist.

# 4 panic selling

"illusion of many different players panic-selling" is created by 1 btc sells every 5 seconds?Huh

no the illusion of panic selling would be created by someone dumping 500 btc, waiting 5 minutes, dumping 750 btc, waiting 5 minutes, dumping 1000 btc, waiting 5 minutes dumping 1250 btc.... boom! the rats start jumping ship...

i could go on but i would just suggest people not listen to a politician for market analysis, there is a reason why his role in society is politician not hedge fund manager...


I don't like it either and i don't get the same conclusions. It has some interesting ideas though.
As i said his own opinion. Wonder what is crossing his mind lately. He was absolutely bullish some months ago:

http://falkvinge.net/2013/03/06/the-target-value-for-bitcoin-is-not-some-50-or-100-it-is-100000-to-1000000/

Is he out and wants to come in again?

the impression i got from the article was someone lost out on some trades, his ego got hurt...

started to drink a bunch of whisky (I base this on his own bio, claiming to be a lover of whisky) that got him mad about it...

then to calm down called over some friends to smoke some weed (bought on SR of course, totally guessing here) that unfortunately made him really paranoid because the weed turned out to be moldy...

after sometime being high and coming up with ideas of what is going on with bitcoin someone at the party broke out the cocaine (because y'all know whisky and coke always come together to the party)

finally, he decided to do something about all this trading nonsense and wrote this article.

i know that's not what actually happened (OR DID IT Wink but hey this is what happens when someone takes wild stabs in the dark...
2187  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: September 17, 2013, 12:24:50 AM
Check falkvinges article about it. He has his own opinion about this 1 btc sells.

http://falkvinge.net/2013/09/13/bitcoins-vast-overvaluation-seems-to-be-caused-by-usually-illegal-price-fixing/

this article has a number of major flaws

#1 conspiracy theory

there is some cabal of traders- does he mean like a hedge fund operates?

# intent

he is guessing at intent

"splitting an order to give the illusion of many trades, and trading within a group to give the appearance of increased volume"

how about... splitting an order to maximize profit

his whole argument hinges on increased volume, yet there are people on this forum bitchin about lowered volume... huh  Huh

#3 stop loss triggering

" causing more stop losses to trigger "

is anyone aware of any of the major exchanges to have a stop loss feature? as far as i know it does not exist.

# 4 panic selling

"illusion of many different players panic-selling" is created by 1 btc sells every 5 seconds?Huh

no the illusion of panic selling would be created by someone dumping 500 btc, waiting 5 minutes, dumping 750 btc, waiting 5 minutes, dumping 1000 btc, waiting 5 minutes dumping 1250 btc.... boom! the rats start jumping ship...

i could go on but i would just suggest people not listen to a politician for market analysis, there is a reason why his role in society is politician not hedge fund manager...
2188  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: September 16, 2013, 08:17:12 PM
just what do you think the FBI will say...

how about..

we need more money for more computing power so that we can try to trace these illicit money laundering transactions, please give us another $10 billion so we can hire more people and buy more hardware
2189  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: September 16, 2013, 08:11:35 PM
no. not this...

the peak happened on low volume, it was high volume which caused the crash, careful what you wish for... Tongue

this i have noticed as well. whenever transaction volume is low, the price is high. when volume is high, price is slow. supply & demand.

i would guess the shifts in the btc demand curve are gradual over time due to the fact that it is difficult to get fiat into the system.  however this may change as the btc economy widens (btc denominated securities and services)...

however when from one day we go from trading 30k (day before peak) to the next day when we hit the peak of 260 and then proceed to have volume 5x to 160k on gox, you see a 60% drop in value.

it is hard to get fiat in but it is easy to open up 11M worth of btc in wallets... this is an indication that most btc owners are just sitting on a ton of btc and willing to hold on for the long term (or many people didnt take it so seriously and lost their wallets in the first couple years thus limiting supply)

it seems that hitting 250 resulted in unlocking some btc whales' to take massive dumps, but since the change in ownership, and the double bottom at 60ish over the last half year, one can reasonably assume that the change and shake out has happened. and as far as i can tell there is no indication that the underlying fundamentals driving btc adoption are slowing down, in fact once all this regulatory BS gets under control, and it will (otherwise making it a blackmarket thing in the USA but not in other western countries will only increase its value at a higher pace - just like coke and weed ), there will be an upward correction.

i would pay close attention to this date...

" 2014 Appropriations Bill for Commerce, Justice, Science and Related agencies which contains many things, but notably requests an FBI Briefing on the subject of Bitcoins and Money Laundering, to be available within 120 days of signing.  On July 23, 2013, "

http://bitcoinmagazine.com/6361/bitcoin-goes-to-washington-bitcoin-and-money-laundering-2014-commerce-justice-science-and-related-agencies-appropriations-bill-federal-bureau-of-investigation/


2190  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: September 16, 2013, 06:58:01 PM
Seems to me like the amount of value being traded has, when you take into account prices, increased. I mean 50k coins at $10 each is less then 5k at $130.
Which is already reflected in the higher price. IMO BTC volume is the appropriate indicator.
This.

Poor Gox.  Smiley

no. not this...

the peak happened on low volume, it was high volume which caused the crash, careful what you wish for... Tongue
2191  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: September 16, 2013, 07:20:22 AM
Gox approaching 5,000 24hr volume. lulz, btc = dead.

its weird.. just about a month ago 25k was the normal "low"

30k being the average daily volume

What? 30k was NOT the average. that was a high, usually once a week IF THAT.

50k daily was normal pre-April crash. In the weeks leading up to the crash we had over 100k daily. Peaked over 550k.

NO ONE IS INTERESTED AT THESE PRICES (but the bots).

Was it really? I could have sworn every time I checked volume it was like 30k.

http://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/

Set the period to D1 (daily). The volume was fucking PATHETIC all summer. total joke. Bots are floating this failboat.

then leave and go away.

GOOD BYE

2192  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: September 15, 2013, 06:09:50 PM
this thread becomes useless when you guys start posting fake charts whales breaching when there is zero volume etc.  Please go outside and enjoy life. things will get exciting again soon...

has sight of the white whale driven you to madness?
2193  Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: stock coins? p2p virtual stock equity / cryptostocks on: September 15, 2013, 09:13:42 AM
Def. think this needs to happen, otherwise, it appears to me that ownership in "shares" of these companies are just database entries, and can't be moved or traded accross multiple exchanges.

I would like to contribute to this project if you get it going.

See my post about creating a centralized list of these virtual exchanges: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=283997.msg3039773#msg3039773

Furthermore, this idea also hints at a larger issue that block-chaining can solve: replacing the system of "Clearing", "Settlement" and "Chain of Custody" that is one of the biggest inefficiencies in interparty exchanges today... ever bought a house and signed a mortgage and paid for insurance on the "title" to your "title agent"? Or bought a stock and waited 3 days for it to "settle"? It's imbecilic in the 21st Century - but it gives plenty of useful idiots something to do for a living  Wink


Thanks for posting this.  It lends more economic credence to why adapting the bitcoin code base to "shares" would hold some new productive value. 

My short term goals are two-fold: to gauge people's interest and to produce a paper via crowd effort to flesh out the concepts, such the ones as you have mentioned as well as the technical aspects. 
2194  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Cryptocurrency working as a distributed stock exchange? on: September 14, 2013, 11:37:36 PM
is this still alive?
2195  Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: stock coins? p2p virtual stock equity on: September 14, 2013, 10:57:53 PM
I also hope that this will soon be implemented. And hopefully the exchange will be incorporated into the P2P system. So that trustless trading of bitcoins against stocks is easily possible. That would be the ultimate breakthrough for large scale bitcoin adoption.

When you wrote this it made me think about that crowd funding legislation that the SEC has yet to implement the regulations for (they are almost a year late I think).  Just think how huge that would be.  There is NO WAY that any regular stock exchange could expeditiously implement stocks for thousands+++ ideas that could get crowd funded, nor would they want to as the money involved would be too low for them to profit from the operational costs.

Nor should one exchange have a monopoly, so the obvious (to me) answer is a bitcoin style cryptostock, and of course using bitcoins as a medium of exchange.  

all those asics could potentially be put to use for trading and maintaining such stock networks.

and as a side benefit we would get TX fees for the miners, and ideally control for the crazy high frequency trading that happens on wall street
2196  Economy / Gambling / Re: Is PrimeDice really (provably)fair? on: September 14, 2013, 08:47:50 PM
wtf are the chances of tails coming up 13 times in a row...

Higher than you think. Quite often on all the dice sites.

i calculated that it was something like 1 in 8000ish if I did my math right, so after rolling 2200+ times, it was not a shocker, but did suck
2197  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: September 14, 2013, 06:11:53 PM
Charts are not loading bro

gonna have to put chart buddy on ignore  Huh
2198  Economy / Service Discussion / MtGOX Euro Withdrawals on: September 14, 2013, 11:29:23 AM
I know there is a massive thread on this, which I have read through but does anyone know what are the thresholds for Euro SEPA transfers these days? And the time expectation?
2199  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: September 14, 2013, 11:27:07 AM
The frequency of the buys have been the same some time, but now bullets seem to be running out?



This is from 2h chart. 140 broke down, what's going to happen next?
Possibly a lot of selling into the weekend dip, followed by a lot of regret when the next whale buy in happens.  Of course it could go either way though.  The longer term trend is definitely upwards, but as we all know past performance often means very little in this game.

it seems that the market is falling on its own weight. and the manipulation to keep the price at 140+ is not very successful

how do you know that there is only one entity manipulating the market?  maybe they are all taking turns with the market?
2200  Economy / Securities / Re: p2p virtual securities? crypto-stocks? on: September 14, 2013, 11:25:31 AM
The seminal discussion on the topic happened last December, here.

thanks, seems like there needs to be much more evolution in the market before a company would put out a crypto-stock
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