Chinese people buy in chinese exchanges and then western people who are already familiar with the bitcoin buy in example bitstamp. Normal western people are not yet interested (google trends) but when we break ATH they will be and then everybody just BUY BUY BUY =D
It's also possible everyone who wanted to learn about bitcoin already did that back in april, and when it does hit the media those people will be like "meh, again? I'm not falling for this again!". Those people buy when we break $500 and then they sell at the next correction bottom. this ... is exactly why most people will not touch bitcoin with a 10 foot pole... only a few suckers will do this, and btc will get a bad reputation- it is actually pretty bad already among the normal people... ask anyone who is a CFO or accountant if they think any large business would want to use a currency that fluctuates by 50% in any given week, and has an ultra thin market. |
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The fuel comes from CHINA!!! How hard is this to understand?
how much fuel is left? |
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Bitcoin is not even at the eary adopter phase, we are in the one before that, I forget what it is called... let us say we are at the mosaic stage, pre netscape... we have not even realized 98% of what this tech can and will be used for.
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i would not classify all of these scenarios as bubbles... it has to go u at least 10X and then fall hard. well that is my definition at least
2011 was definitely a bubble because it dropped over 90%. 2013 so far is not a bubble as there was no 90% drop.
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i'm currently in south sweden near a naval museum, i am sure that for enough btc (say 1000 btc and a stockpile of beer and vodka) i can convince some swedes to "borrow" a ship very much like this one and row it up the coast. just keep in mind that the waters around stockholm freeze during the winter so time is of the essence.
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The OP isn't a sovereign nation, he doesn't have a seat on the UN security counsel, and he doesn't have enough nuclear weapons to wipe out the human race. So comparing him to Russian oil reserves is kinda silly right?
Russian govt protects national businesses and its owners, also don't forget what US-Russia relationships are now. I cannot even find at least 1 case where Russia forfeited some company's assets on its own territory with request of US court. BTW, BTC-E is Russian exchange and magically it haven't any legal troubles. If you are concerned about legal issues may be just follow it's example  He is right, doubt Russia would agree to FATCA or any other wacky imperialist laws Congress passes ... the long arm of US law does not reach there. Actually I had a friend stuck in a gulag prison on some made up industrial espionage charges and it took Collin Powell asking Putin in person for them to let him go... no joke... by the time they got him he was reduced to skin and bones |
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No way can this pump last if no new incoming fiat. Soon as it's gone, IT'S GONE AND WE DIVEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE.
For every Bitcoin bought on MtGox one is sold and that money stays in MtGox waiting to be used again. I suspect the USD from coins being sold now will be used to buy cheaper coins after the 'correction'. The Chinese pumper could be buying his own coins over and over gain to inflate the price. With a reasonable chunk of coins this could be done after initially selling only some of them. that is not entirely true, people in the EU are saying they get their SEPA transfers. check the irc chat #mtgox and the mtgox withdraw delays thread but i bet no one in the EU in their right mind would tx money to gox, they are buying on btce or bitstamp |
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gridcoin.us
you get a big subsidy for mining with boinc turned on
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The spread between Gox and Bitstamp is the smallest its been in a while, percentage-wise. Its only around 5%. this either means that Gox isn't high enough & will go higher in the future, Bitstamp is too high, or perhaps the arbitrage channels are opening up again.
well, if Gox is selling BTC it does not have that % difference should be going down. exactly, dump some fractional reserve bitcoins on the exchange and suppress the price. oh, Gox!  trivia question: when was the last time that the price divergence between gox and bitstamp was this thin, and what happened in the days following? |
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an investment produces something, it has utility. I take it you're not a gold bug? i actually do own some coins Why? for some of the same reasons some people are hoarding btc now. knowing that mindset i believe the current run up that is happening now is not a sudden shift in detection of an unexpected increase in sustainable future value growth rates. |
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I think it's a myth that Bitcoin's value mostly stems from transaction value or merchant adoption. The real driving force is long-term investment. Or rather, the value does stem from transaction value and merchant adoption, but not present transaction value or merchant adoption but future transaction value and merchant adoption. One of the things that investors do is drive up the price of things that will serve a valuable function in the future, since most people won't buy them now since they're not valuable for that purpose now.
You beat me to it an investment produces something, it has utility. I take it you're not a gold bug? i actually do own some coins edit: and i do keep some of them under my mattress... |
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I think it's a myth that Bitcoin's value mostly stems from transaction value or merchant adoption. The real driving force is long-term investment. Or rather, the value does stem from transaction value and merchant adoption, but not present transaction value or merchant adoption but future transaction value and merchant adoption. One of the things that investors do is drive up the price of things that will serve a valuable function in the future, since most people won't buy them now since they're not valuable for that purpose now.
You beat me to it an investment produces something, it has utility. investing in a worker and a taco truck, produces a return. buying something and hiding it produces nothing. the present value should already contain all discounted future value, which is anticipated by market participants. although one could make an argument that market participants are growing temporarily driving up the price. so then we may have what is called a liquidity trap in the bitcoin world. which would result in deflation (higher btc price)that we are now seeing but it is not a long term innovation value driven bubble by a change in the rate of adoption and rate of tx growth. IF that is the case, then as soon as the speculators run out of powder and whatever other reasons others may have for hoarding the crash will come , unless tx rates increase dramatically. it could happen, i just don't see it right now. this is not to say that the price cannot go up, it may for some time, until people realize that there is no additional value from just buying the stuff and not doing anything with it. |
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Another theory about why there is so little resistance to the current climb:
1) many of the largest bitcoin holders were criminals and/or money launderers; and
2) ^ have been scared away from the major exchanges due to regulation and government actions over the summer.
i would have to go with this and add that... some never reported their btc income a couple years ago when they mined it or were paid for services (maybe didnt know what to do with it and it was monopoly money at the time) and don't want their btc showing up at places that have instituted KYC... you know what happens to money assets that you hide from the US govt after 3 years right... not saying it is right but that's the way it is... |
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my personal opinion is that bubbles should be spaced out longer than the time period between the last 2 bubbles as it takes longer for new innovations to bring about new growth curves. the time period between the last 2 bubbles was about 21 months. it is been only 6 months and people are already expecting another bubble event...
But so much has changed. look at this tx graph https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions?timespan=all&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=the # of processed tx is a proxy for utility, earlier this year we got rid of dust tx and you could see the decrease, and now an increase which means that some new value has been brought in but we are not talking 10X yet. in the last bubble the magnitudinal (10x) tx increase preceded the massive (10x) price range shift  |
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I like to hope that the bears in this kind of market sustain enough losses that their power to irrationally drive it down is greatly diluted. I suppose corrections are natural, but it's nice to have a collective sense of confidence when the smart ones know it's going up no matter the short-term obstacles. I guess the new money have to get their coins from someone.
unfortunately what is happening right now is price going up due to lack of supply due to hoarding, not any new magnitudinal shift in utility that has come online with btc business in the last 3 weeks. look at the tx graph it has not shifted since last year. people who got paid in btc a few years ago are sitting on thousands, some of them are not providing any value to the system especially by not circulating the btc they have. they could easily take those coins and invest them into btc businesses or people to write off their massive profits but instead they are hoarding for various reasons (I realize some people didnt declare this income the first couple years and are in a weird position...). that is not healthy. i don't recall who it was but one of the dev's once said that there would be something like 5 (or 7?) btc bubbles. market adoption driven bubbles should happen in the first 2 and 3 stage (mass market adoption, final bubble) of market adoption. there is probably some academic studies i have read on this but i dont recall offhand my personal opinion is that bubbles should be spaced out longer than the time period between the last 2 bubbles as it takes longer for new innovations to bring about new growth curves. the time period between the last 2 bubbles was about 21 months. it is been only 6 months and people are already expecting another bubble event... |
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well i don't daytrade but i think it is good that people do, it provides liquidity
if every just kept their btc under their mattress (print out of private key), then there would be no chance for anyone new to get their hands on some
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As I said many times: buy and hold has historically been a winning strategy with BTC. Daytrading BTC is a huge risk, and IMO it should be done ONLY after an obvious bubble pop that leads to a bear market, as we had from mid April to July/August.
In my book this is a very bad time to daytrade, is time to hold like a motherfucker, as I've been saying since the beginning of July. I also remember you saying I and other bulls were in denial and we would panic and capitulate soon when we sat around $70-80 in June/July. Turned out you were horribly wrong those days, I wonder how many people lost money listening to your bearish rants.  That was a bit earlier, but its true that many times my bearish calls were wrong. First (April, post-crash) I said the very bottom was already hit ($50) and that this was in no way like 2011, then I started to doubt about this and I wrote that we would probably go to $30. It turned out I was completely right in April, and completely wrong in May. Summing up, that was a bad call from my side for sure. Nevertheless, I missed the very bottom in the hope of doubling my coins, but we WERE in a bear market indeed, and those who sold at $125 in May (which is when I sold my coins, it's all on the forums) have bought for sure cheaper coins when we went again to $60/$70. I know I did, even if I was expecting them even cheaper. At the end of the day, I ended up with more coins I had pre-bubble - I didn't triple them, I didn't double them, but I increased them by a healthy 35%. I was up to 50% at some point, then sold at the very bottom in one occasion, fucking up, but you cannot be right 100% of the time. What I feel sorry for is for those guys who had thousands of coins in 2011, and now they have only a few hundreds. What I guarantee you is that won't happen to me. I know very well what's my goal in this game: to end up with MORE btc I had. It's easy to make fiat profits with an asset that went from sub $1 to $266 in 3 years. Even a monkey can have fiat profits by trading such an asset. The difficult thing is to end up with MORE BTC in the process, and that's my only purpose. up 35% is very respectable. people need to make their own decisions, personally sticking to a strategy seems to work well. for example my strategy is buying more when there is a massive dump, which only happens every once in a while - unfortunately i missed the SR dump, thought it would go lower |
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great wall of china coming down.... barbarians are invading!  |
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the spread between gox en stamp is betting smaller? Any ideas why?
Used to be 15$ spread when in 100-150 range, like >10%, now its 10$ around the 200 range, so about ~5%...
arbitrage. someone is doing it. It will be interesting what will happend when we have less than 10k btc on mtgox... |
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