seems these "beers" want a crash cuz they sold already and want back in, loll
to bad
choooooo chooooo
Crash at 280. Until then "choo choo" " for sure we are going to retest the previous highs (it actually had hit 300 on btchina in april) it kind of amazes me how much fiat was sitting around at gox this whole time (it is not as if people are wiring funds to gox when price is way cheaper on a few exchanges), and the fact that this money just watched BTC go so low a few times and then just sat there for months until the most expensive time to start buying |
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Gox in anti-gravity mode - this is no chemical fuels any more, warp drive engine on!
Warp drive would be $10k instant  i like this version better  |
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i wonder if this has to do with people anticipating SEC approval of the bitcoin trust, the sec should respond within 30 days of the oct 8 filing
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Who has 100k btc anymore?
Other than dpr and satoshi...
the twinsies  |
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PSA: A correction now, even a big temporary sell-off, would be totally normal. That's not saying we'll get one, but don't panic if it happens. The "DON'T PANIC" posts during a mini-crash may fall on deaf ears because they look desperate. They aren't; it is a fact that markets don't move in straight lines. Don't be a weak hand. Besides being generally cowardly, it is very expensive to your financial wellbeing. We now return to our regularly scheduled rally  less than 20000 btc left on gox... where is that sell of gonna come from... wtf are you talking about? Go to blockchained.com and look at what happen to ask sum before the last major crashes. We are in risky territory. are you unable to read little boy? |
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PSA: A correction now, even a big temporary sell-off, would be totally normal. That's not saying we'll get one, but don't panic if it happens. The "DON'T PANIC" posts during a mini-crash may fall on deaf ears because they look desperate. They aren't; it is a fact that markets don't move in straight lines. Don't be a weak hand. Besides being generally cowardly, it is very expensive to your financial wellbeing. We now return to our regularly scheduled rally less than 20000 btc left on gox... where is that sell of gonna come from... |
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I wish I could do that but I am a grad student at the moment and my income is rather sporadic so I place orders at way below market value, and wait patiently Is that working out for you? I'm not that patient. I simply bought/buy and hold. I figure it's only going up, so if I'm down a bit now, it's only temporary, and I'm better off simply locking in the long term value. when i do this, i occasionally get a catch (it is like every few months during reversals and random flash crashes, sometimes i bid too low or think it will fall lower than it does but i rather be safe, and i am up a lot...), and then i can sometimes double my money and make a stack if i even get tempted to day trade i make like way lower returns with a lot more effort. and as i said i don't have regular income as a student and i don't want to worry about btc crashing 80% while i am writing my thesis and thinking sh-t i need to sell 10% of my btc just to pay my rent, etc... This is what I wanted to hear. I was trying to daytrade but it consume so much time and profit zero. How have you learned that? Could you please give me some advices? Not sure I can give any good advice other then just everday adjust your order to 30% under market price before you go to sleep... one day you win the lottery... for example look at the night sr was taken down (it was night time for me) Then do not get too greedy, I usually am happy with 50%, but definitely at 100% you should take out your original buy amount. Also I just noticed that the all time high was actually much higher on btchina, it was something like 300. Since they lead the rally, I need to figure out what the fibonacci retracements would be for them. |
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No, you're right. Its why CampBX isnt important. If they went to $500 it wouldnt effect the other markets at all.
If CBX went to $500 I'd move coins there and sell them, move fiat to my bank, then wire it back to bitfinex. Hell, at that price you could just buy the coins thru localbitcoins. Well yeah, but its like when rmbtb CNY went to 1500 the other day.. no other exchanges gave a fuck. Because they arent significant. Significance comes in the form of volume and trust. Bitstamp is #1 in that I think. Followed by Gox. Then maybe BTC-China and BTC-E. CNY went to 1337. I show they went to 1339.99 |
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Google trends image. What exactly is fueling this rally? This tells me it's old money doing the same all over.  maybe there is a service called "baidu trends"? Zero trade fees in china is fueling this pump/fake-rally. Zero trade fees are what's called "free market." So I have no idea why you think that would distort the market. It's pretty easy to fake volume when there are no financial constraints to doing so. Don't you think? A single whale can repeatedly buy and sell his own coins. (That's not to say the market won't roll over him or that this is what is happening) Sure you can manipulate volume. How will that help in manipulating price? You don't think manipulating volume can affect price action? Re price manipulation, that would depend on how much of the coins/fiat on the exchange is controlled by the whale. Is it impossible that one could drive up the inter-exchange rate this way? Or would he just be run over by arbitrage? I don't really know, I'm just brainstorming... No one can arb using an exchange located in a country that has capital controls!!! Go ahead try to move fiat money out of China... and you thought Gox was hard... I'm pretty sure people can arb. After all lots of the people who have money in stuff like OKPay & LibertyReserve were Chinese. Obviously if you can get money into those types of things you can use similar approaches to arb. Okay... i stand corrected... there is no *easy way*... |
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Google trends image. What exactly is fueling this rally? This tells me it's old money doing the same all over. maybe there is a service called "baidu trends"? Zero trade fees in china is fueling this pump/fake-rally. Zero trade fees are what's called "free market." So I have no idea why you think that would distort the market. It's pretty easy to fake volume when there are no financial constraints to doing so. Don't you think? A single whale can repeatedly buy and sell his own coins. (That's not to say the market won't roll over him or that this is what is happening) Sure you can manipulate volume. How will that help in manipulating price? You don't think manipulating volume can affect price action? Re price manipulation, that would depend on how much of the coins/fiat on the exchange is controlled by the whale. Is it impossible that one could drive up the inter-exchange rate this way? Or would he just be run over by arbitrage? I don't really know, I'm just brainstorming... No one can arb using an exchange located in a country that has capital controls!!! Go ahead try to move fiat money out of China... and you thought Gox was hard... |
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i'm currently in south sweden near a naval museum, i am sure that for enough btc (say 1000 btc and a stockpile of beer and vodka) i can convince some swedes to "borrow" a ship very much like this one and row it up the coast. just keep in mind that the waters around stockholm freeze during the winter so time is of the essence.
Hmmm... snag a college kid and offer him $184 to "borrow" a longship from a museum and row it to Stockholm and you have a deal + 10% finder's fee. The swedes are not so cheap, as you know their work to pay ratio is very skewed And I charge 25% mgmt overhead, plus a piece of any spoils |
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At first consideration I can't see how money out of circulation can 'cause speculative boom and bust cycles'. Are you suggesting fear of hoarders dumping feeds busts? Surely if these nasty hoarders/long-term-speculators/savers selflessly did something with their coin so that they are in circulation, after the adjustment in price we'd be subject to the same cyclic upward and downward pressures - and we would be forever fearing someone new isn't going to come in and hoard loads (thus exposing us to the same supposed problems). Can't we just accept it is going to go up and down quite drastically for some time because it is very small and someone with a reasonable amount of money can move the market quite significantly? That's just the way it is until 'market cap' is much much higher - and in order to get there the value has to rise - and due to human nature it IS NOT going to rise nice and smoothly to provide the ideal adoption-for-transactions circumstances you desire. It is simply what it is! it is called a liquidity trap, which in btc's case diminishes the network effect thus lowering tx and overall network value. anyway i am writing all this down to see if my analysis turns out wrong or right 3 to 6 months out and there is a reversal. if it is wrong then i have to rethink. if it turns out right then i'll feel good about getting it right. Though not an economist I'm not convinced what you are describing is called a liquidity trap, nor can I see how a limited available amount of bitcoins in circulation diminishes the 'network effect'. Would you care to elaborate? i actually have to get back to writing a paper otherwise I would. Anyway this is all conjecture at this point, I'll know in a few months when the tx and price data is available. |
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I wish I could do that but I am a grad student at the moment and my income is rather sporadic so I place orders at way below market value, and wait patiently Is that working out for you? I'm not that patient. I simply bought/buy and hold. I figure it's only going up, so if I'm down a bit now, it's only temporary, and I'm better off simply locking in the long term value. when i do this, i occasionally get a catch (it is like every few months during reversals and random flash crashes, sometimes i bid too low or think it will fall lower than it does but i rather be safe, and i am up a lot...), and then i can sometimes double my money and make a stack if i even get tempted to day trade i make like way lower returns with a lot more effort. and as i said i don't have regular income as a student and i don't want to worry about btc crashing 80% while i am writing my thesis and thinking sh-t i need to sell 10% of my btc just to pay my rent, etc... |
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At first consideration I can't see how money out of circulation can 'cause speculative boom and bust cycles'. Are you suggesting fear of hoarders dumping feeds busts? Surely if these nasty hoarders/long-term-speculators/savers selflessly did something with their coin so that they are in circulation, after the adjustment in price we'd be subject to the same cyclic upward and downward pressures - and we would be forever fearing someone new isn't going to come in and hoard loads (thus exposing us to the same supposed problems). Can't we just accept it is going to go up and down quite drastically for some time because it is very small and someone with a reasonable amount of money can move the market quite significantly? That's just the way it is until 'market cap' is much much higher - and in order to get there the value has to rise - and due to human nature it IS NOT going to rise nice and smoothly to provide the ideal adoption-for-transactions circumstances you desire. It is simply what it is! it is called a liquidity trap, which in btc's case diminishes the network effect thus lowering tx and overall network value. anyway i am writing all this down to see if my analysis turns out wrong or right 3 to 6 months out and there is a reversal. if it is wrong then i have to rethink. if it turns out right then i'll feel good about getting it right. |
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Those big Whales will start dumping at certain price point you never know, may well be a collaboration between the big players from the east and west. Dump with friends! All we want to know is.... when will the whales dump? They won't tell, that's the biggest secret. The question is if they are nice whales or asshole whales. smart whales are actually waiting at the bottom...  |
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Those big Whales will start dumping at certain price point you never know, may well be a collaboration between the big players from the east and west. Exactly, but doing chart-analysis helps to have at least a hint when buy/sell how does one analyze an asymptotic rise? |
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We will test 266 soon then taste a huge nice bubble pop
if that happens expect having miners slug through the valley of death for a while... if hash power declines b/c miners go offline, block times will increase... compounding the problem... |
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Chinese people buy in chinese exchanges and then western people who are already familiar with the bitcoin buy in example bitstamp. Normal western people are not yet interested (google trends) but when we break ATH they will be and then everybody just BUY BUY BUY =D
It's also possible everyone who wanted to learn about bitcoin already did that back in april, and when it does hit the media those people will be like "meh, again? I'm not falling for this again!". Those people buy when we break $500 and then they sell at the next correction bottom. this ... is exactly why most people will not touch bitcoin with a 10 foot pole... only a few suckers will do this, and btc will get a bad reputation- it is actually pretty bad already among the normal people... ask anyone who is a CFO or accountant if they think any large business would want to use a currency that fluctuates by 50% in any given week, and has an ultra thin market. when people will realize that increase in bitcoin price was not a bubble but normal market fluctuations, they will come back, especially when banks will introduce new limitations or fees for their services. Not to mention bail ins and outs. As for the second sentence, you didn't expected new currency to be introduced with full market first day of it's existence? the ultra thin market exists because 95% of btc is hoarded, not because it is the first day of existence (which happened a while ago btw). the hoarding causes speculative boom and bust cycles. the volatility from the boom and bust cycles diminish the intended economic advantage of using a trustless p2p money system vs third parties. the diminished value lowers adoption rates... anyway i think we will test 266 soonish... |
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Chinese people buy in chinese exchanges and then western people who are already familiar with the bitcoin buy in example bitstamp. Normal western people are not yet interested (google trends) but when we break ATH they will be and then everybody just BUY BUY BUY =D
It's also possible everyone who wanted to learn about bitcoin already did that back in april, and when it does hit the media those people will be like "meh, again? I'm not falling for this again!". Those people buy when we break $500 and then they sell at the next correction bottom. this ... is exactly why most people will not touch bitcoin with a 10 foot pole... only a few suckers will do this, and btc will get a bad reputation- it is actually pretty bad already among the normal people... ask anyone who is a CFO or accountant if they think any large business would want to use a currency that fluctuates by 50% in any given week, and has an ultra thin market. Now you're hitting an entirely different subject with that last remark. I'm saying the bitcoin community underestimates how many people actually know about bitcoin. I think everyone who matters (people interested in technology, IT people, general investors,...) already learned about bitcoin back in april. Never mind the regular mom and pop investors, they wouldn't touch this with a 10 foot pole as this is an investment that lies outside of the banking scheme. For the regular mom and pop investors to come in, something truly revolutionary (or cataclysmic like a US default that has people searching for a safe haven) needs to happen. Another thing, look at the possibilities one has to invest in bitcoin. One needs to transfer money to an unregulated bitcoin exchange like Bitstamp or Gox. No way regular mom and pop investors would do that. But that's long term talk. Short term we need to look at companies and people like us (technofreaks) endorsing bitcoin. read the first sentence of the first 2 paragraphs of satoshi's wp: "Commerce on the Internet has come to rely almost exclusively on financial institutions serving as trusted third parties to process electronic payments" "What is needed is an electronic payment system based on cryptographic proof instead of trust, allowing any two willing parties to transact directly with each other without the need for a trusted third party" Is btc used for commerce on the Internet? Where in the wp does it say we need a trustless asset class to invest in? good to go back to the roots sometimes... for a reminder of why this even exists. |
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