I treat that as coincidence - or more precisely a too way feedback loop that just happened to show only one side.  And it is not exact - the episode, for example, did generate quite high peak - the popularity though did not last.  The main idea is that without more popularity I don't see much chances that bitcoin will rally for an extended time period, the prices can lead for some time - but if popularity lags too much - then prices have to go down as well.

Buying now and staying long is also about beating the market - if you speculate you are trying to beat the market by definition.  There are long term risks as well - for example government crash on bitcoin, or a better solution (maybe one not using so much electricity).  Now there is also a midterm risk that there will not be any more bitcoin speculators and the money in the  system will only oscillate the price back and forth between two numbers.  I am a little bit disappointed by the bitcoin google trends impact resulting from that 'Good Wife' episode.  Maybe the mainstream adoption of bitcoin will be much slower then we imagine.

Since then I've started reading about the various techniques, subscribed to the S3052 newsletter and it kind of works so far.  Much better then I thought it would.

I don't know - so far I don't regret that I sold when it was at $15.  Before that I was mostly losing on my moves - but this single one spared me a lot.

My entirely unscietific Elliot Wave analysis tells me we are half way through the correction.  During this time I prefer to keep USD, just like I did in the Autumn - but on a shorter timescale.

Who loses on that?  bitcoinica?  So they are a bucket shot after all?

I used it together with chodpaba graphs and decided that there is too much risk that the support zone will be broken.  And also on the up side it was rather difficult climb - both because of chodpaba graphs and asks on tradehill.

I understand that you sold low when you thought it *must* go even lower and how you're kind of surprised - but maybe if you convince everyone that it goes back to $2.00 - then you might yet have a chance to buy it back.

Good move!

Didn't I say contrarian indicator?  This shows that it worked this time

I am a bit lazy - so I am now changing the range to 10 first threads.

The obviously bearish ones:

Smart Money has left the building… Have you?
shit, shit, shit

No obviously bullish threads, but if the date was not sooo far away one could count "Block Reward changing to 25 BTC in November-December 2012".

At the 12 position was another bear: KNIFE IMMINENT

A new, contrarian indicator.

Currently in the first 20 threads on this page there are no bullish threads and about 5 bearish threads.

I know I've created one of this bearish threads myself - but the saturation of this forum by them now reached the point where they are starting to be a good contrarian indicator.

I did quite well in the last half a year  doing the opposite to what you were advising: selling when you were so enthusiastic and then buying when you started posting more balanced notes.

3 weeks of correction - are we midway?

But it is over $1.50/BTC.

The problem now are bitcoinica cascading forced liquidations - if that happens again it can drive the price down very quickly and at this point is is quite probable because we are close to the recent bottom and the star was on the buy button well into 5.4 prices.

According to Kahneman people gamble against the odds (that is irrationally) in two cases.  First is when they can gain much for little (even if their chances are very small) - this is the well known lottery fact.  The second case is less obvious -  it is when they can avoid loosing (even if gambling means that most probably they will lose much more).  When on bitcoinica people have negatibe PL they tend to keep the position even if they know that prices will probably fall.  This explains how the prices were falling in the autumn so slowly, but now with bitcoinica and forced liquidations this is a different picture and I don't expect the bitcoinica deleverage to be smooth.

Bitcoinica star shows that bitcoinica does not have funds to support the rally any more - this is what stopped the recent rally.  But indirectly it also shows that all bitcoin optimists are now fully in BTC and have no funds left for buying more.

I've seen it on the other side as well today.

So who now does not believe that threads like this are a bearish sign?