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Bitcoin Oz
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August 22, 2012, 04:16:37 AM |
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I can't help but feel this entire thread is just a way to see if people, fresh off of losing money to Pirate, will once again risk large sums will no proof that the counterparty has the ability or inclination to pay other than some vague handwaving.
This is a little different because bets here are only a risk of reputation. Bets with pirate were risks of sums. And I'm surprised I don't see more of "team ponzi" here hedging some of their pirate-loans. If I put on my tinfoil hat, I can think of another possibility. For simplicity, assume pirate's exposure is much less than 500k and he's short the claims by only 5k BTC. MNW knows this, so he takes 10k BTC in bets that pirate will pay and gives pirate the 5k he's short. Then MNW collects the 10k. That's over-simplified, but pirate could reduce his exposure by buying claims or GLBSE bonds from lenders panic-selling for pennies on the coin. At the same time, collect as much as possible from buyers of default bets and other forms of insurance (aka credit default swaps). Highly unlikely that this could be orchestrated. And the credit-default-swaps, btw, right after peaking in 2008, turned worthless when buyers realized AIG sold them without collateral (small warning for speculating on ponzi defaults). On the other hand, maybe MNW really is giving away 10k BTC, to reward skeptics and ensure that default doesn't fade from memory any time soon, helping the community develop a resistance to ponzis. That would make him just as honest as pirate. MNW says he's "giving it away" even as he says he's "teaching a lesson to those crying wolf on things without evidence" (ps: Evidence of absence is not to be confused with absence of evidence). Pirate says he's "doing a mybitcoin" even as he says "everyone will be paid". I hesitate to increase my bet because of the foggy judgement standards for three weeks from now, and no reliable records of claims, exposure, etc. I fully intend to pay MNW if pirate can pull it off by the three-week mark, with minimal hand-wringing. Let's watch the facts roll in and cut through all the double-speak. It should be easy for MNW to prove he has the 10kbtc by moving it to an address and signing a message with the private key . Anything else is bullshit.  |
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Rassah
Legendary
 Offline
Activity: 1680
Merit: 1035
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August 22, 2012, 04:19:44 AM |
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OK, well firstly, yes I'm goading certain people, but mostly just the annoying, overly vocal dicks that have been spouting on and on and on this whole time.
<snip>
Now, what else you got? Oh that's right, nothing, because you didn't read the thread properly before ranting away. Great job.
Actually, I have been following this thread since the very beginning. That's why I pointed out that, by "goading" annoying, overly vocal dicks as much as, and in the way that you have, you have become an annoying, overly vocal dick yourself. Pretty easy to be one when you have nothing to gain or lose. Whether or not you have anything invested with pirate, the outcome of this particular bet won't affect you, but it will affect the guy you're telling others to bet against. However, if you want, I'll take 5BTC from you too. You also totally accused Vladimir of saying "Oooh, but I don't gamble!" when it was I who said that. |
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theymos
Administrator
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 5180
Merit: 12900
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August 22, 2012, 04:25:16 AM |
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Please increase to:
38.8 BTC
1PsVebpFgxzf3sPrn7ViLv9uXL2gQgvicD
Thank you.
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1NXYoJ5xU91Jp83XfVMHwwTUyZFK64BoAD
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bigasic
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August 22, 2012, 04:25:57 AM |
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1CDKm8eBbUiWomosqCTUjsKaxMrcN6XjdL
10 BTC
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Matthew N. Wright (OP)
Untrustworthy
Hero Member
Offline
Activity: 588
Merit: 500
Hero VIP ultra official trusted super staff puppet
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August 22, 2012, 04:26:47 AM |
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1CDKm8eBbUiWomosqCTUjsKaxMrcN6XjdL
10 BTC
Approved. |
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RoloTonyBrownTown
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August 22, 2012, 04:28:22 AM |
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OK, well firstly, yes I'm goading certain people, but mostly just the annoying, overly vocal dicks that have been spouting on and on and on this whole time.
<snip>
Now, what else you got? Oh that's right, nothing, because you didn't read the thread properly before ranting away. Great job.
Actually, I have been following this thread since the very beginning. That's why I pointed out that, by "goading" annoying, overly vocal dicks as much as the way that you have, you have become an annoying, overly vocal dick yourself. Well you know what? I totally can't argue with that You're right, and it's not something I'm particularly happy with as this is really the first time I've delved into "trolling", ever. I'm generally a practitioner of "good forum etiquette", at least on every other forum I'm a member of. This place is just out of control, and even the trolls have trolls. When all this pirate thing has blown over I'll most likely disappear into the sunset and be done with this place to be honest. Anyway, I'm rambling. But tl;dr, yeah you're right. EDIT: And sure, we can do the 5BTC if you like. If you want to get funky with Escrow I'm OK with that, but I'm happy to just trust you to pay up if you're happy to do the same to me. You can quote this, and it'll be in this thread for good. I'm sure plenty of people will be after me to pay up should I lose (and despite my comments about leaving the forum above, I won't before settling up. But happy to use Escrow if you prefer). |
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Rassah
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1680
Merit: 1035
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August 22, 2012, 04:37:08 AM |
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And sure, we can do the 5BTC if you like. If you want to get funky with Escrow I'm OK with that, but I'm happy to just trust you to pay up if you're happy to do the same to me. You can quote this, and it'll be in this thread for good.
I'll take your word for it, though if you fail to pay up, I won't hold it against you either. So, acknowledged/witnessed. |
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dust
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August 22, 2012, 04:39:03 AM |
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And sure, we can do the 5BTC if you like. If you want to get funky with Escrow I'm OK with that, but I'm happy to just trust you to pay up if you're happy to do the same to me. You can quote this, and it'll be in this thread for good.
I'll take your word for it, though if you fail to pay up, I won't hold it against you either. So, acknowledged/witnessed. We are negotiating a 100BTC bet with escrow. |
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finkleshnorts
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August 22, 2012, 04:39:39 AM |
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5 BTC
(adding address soon, blockchain.info is down for me)
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Matthew N. Wright (OP)
Untrustworthy
Hero Member
Offline
Activity: 588
Merit: 500
Hero VIP ultra official trusted super staff puppet
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August 22, 2012, 04:41:07 AM |
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5 BTC
(adding address soon, blockchain.info is down for me)
Accepted. |
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RoloTonyBrownTown
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August 22, 2012, 04:44:48 AM |
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And sure, we can do the 5BTC if you like. If you want to get funky with Escrow I'm OK with that, but I'm happy to just trust you to pay up if you're happy to do the same to me. You can quote this, and it'll be in this thread for good.
I'll take your word for it, though if you fail to pay up, I won't hold it against you either. So, acknowledged/witnessed. Not a prob, I'll happily pay up if necessary (well, maybe not "happily", but yeah)  |
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Fluttershy
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August 22, 2012, 04:52:05 AM |
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I'll bet all my bitcoins against all yours.
On a more serious note, who's going to organize the betting pool for whether Matthew pays up or not?
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sadpandatech
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August 22, 2012, 04:52:51 AM |
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5 BTC
(adding address soon, blockchain.info is down for me)
not you too. ;/ I guess everyone cracks given enough time. I suppose if I wasn't busy spending my coins on hokers and blow, I may split a coin between forum m8's as well. ;p *shakes his head at Matthew* |
If you're not excited by the idea of being an early adopter 'now', then you should come back in three or four years and either tell us "Told you it'd never work!" or join what should, by then, be a much more stable and easier-to-use system.
- GA
It is being worked on by smart people. -DamienBlack
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bitcoinBull
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 826
Merit: 1001
rippleFanatic
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August 22, 2012, 04:54:11 AM |
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Increasing my bet before "team ponzi" start hedging theirs. 250 BTC 1ADEPf7M8NifTU6x9eHEDWvNHrJNT5urnj Evidence of absence (not to be confused with absence of evidence). |
College of Bucking Bulls Knowledge
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Matthew N. Wright (OP)
Untrustworthy
Hero Member
Offline
Activity: 588
Merit: 500
Hero VIP ultra official trusted super staff puppet
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August 22, 2012, 04:54:19 AM |
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*shakes his head at Matthew*
*shakes his hand with sadpandatech's head* Weird handshake you've got there. You have nothing to worry about if you're not making baseless accusations. It will all be over soon. |
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drakahn
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August 22, 2012, 04:56:23 AM |
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Increasing my bet before "team ponzi" start hedging theirs. 250 BTC 1ADEPf7M8NifTU6x9eHEDWvNHrJNT5urnj Evidence of absence (not to be confused with absence of evidence). Team ponzi are the guys screaming ponzi as its its proven fact with no evidence |
14ga8dJ6NGpiwQkNTXg7KzwozasfaXNfEU
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Matthew N. Wright (OP)
Untrustworthy
Hero Member
Offline
Activity: 588
Merit: 500
Hero VIP ultra official trusted super staff puppet
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August 22, 2012, 04:56:32 AM |
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Increasing my bet before "team ponzi" start hedging theirs. 250 BTC 1ADEPf7M8NifTU6x9eHEDWvNHrJNT5urnj Evidence of absence (not to be confused with absence of evidence). Acknowledged |
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Matthew N. Wright (OP)
Untrustworthy
Hero Member
Offline
Activity: 588
Merit: 500
Hero VIP ultra official trusted super staff puppet
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August 22, 2012, 04:58:51 AM |
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Please increase to:
38.8 BTC
1PsVebpFgxzf3sPrn7ViLv9uXL2gQgvicD
Thank you.
Approved. |
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finkleshnorts
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August 22, 2012, 05:07:41 AM |
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5 BTC
(adding address soon, blockchain.info is down for me)
not you too. ;/ I guess everyone cracks given enough time. I suppose if I wasn't busy spending my coins on hokers and blow, I may split a coin between forum m8's as well. ;p *shakes his head at Matthew* Hey, I cracked when theymos posted his bet. I already have a bet on betsofbitco.in though.... I hope I'm wrong! I hope everyone gets their coins back. I'm sick of all the "i told you so's" and other bullshit being spewn around right now. Nothing worth reading on the forum at the moment. |
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