MoneyPot.com :: The bitcoin gambling wallet

[RHavar]

well as this is all luck everyone can win/lose so its not everyone that win big should be under investigation.
regards.
-Katerniko1

I never lock accounts while looking into them (they are always free with withdraw, and continue gambling) but it's a completely normal part of operating a casino. It'd be irresponsible if I didn't =)

[katerniko1]

well as this is all luck everyone can win/lose so its not everyone that win big should be under investigation.
regards.
-Katerniko1

I never lock accounts while looking into them (they are always free with withdraw, and continue gambling) but it's a completely normal part of operating a casino. It'd be irresponsible if I didn't =)

you check every guy that win ?
for me that looks like im a robber while you checking me for my wins...
(i know you protect your money etc.but not everyone are scammers and cheaters)
regards.
-Katerniko1

[RHavar]

you check every guy that win ?
for me that looks like im a robber while you checking me for my wins...
(i know you protect your money etc.but not everyone are scammers and cheaters)
regards.
-Katerniko1

By check, I doesn't mean "check their id", but I mean check some of the network requests and database fields and make sure everything looks normal. Often I chart the bets, and run a few simulations to see how likely it happened. I even have done this a few times on losers, and make sure that nothing is wrong there too. It's a totally non-invasive thing, that mainly happens automatically and you wouldn't know it's happening unless I told you

[dooglus]

The deviation from the expected profit is crazy. I could understand it if the site has only a few thousands of bets, but it has over 2.8 millions bets already. How unlikely is it for a site to have an expected profit of 0.98% and to have an actual profit of -1.91% over so many bets?

It's impossible to answer that question if you don't tell me the distribution of the bet sizes.

If all the bets were the same size, it's very unlikely. If 1% of the bets were significantly bigger than the other 99% then it's much more likely, because only 1% of the bets would be significant to the total site profit.

When Just-Dice was running for BTC we had billions of bets and ended up with an actual profit of around 0.35% when the expected profit was 1%. That's because a small percentage of the bets were huge, and they did better than expected. The billions of tiny bets have little to no impact on the bottom line.

[dooglus]

Hope I will not bring bad luck with me as Dooglus did  (j/k as well)

It's not the first time. It often seems to be that when I invest in a bankroll the site starts losing.

I refuse to believe I'm causing it to happen, but it is a little disturbing.

[dooglus]

I just saw this and wondered what's going on. Is it a rounding error?

Bet #143075335
General Info
User: totolino
App: Texas Hold'em All-In
Bet Kind: custom
Wager: 1 bits
Profit: -1 bits
Investor Profit: 0.994999999308493 bits
App Dev Profit: 0.005000000691507011 bits
House Edge: 1.00%
Total Expected Value: -0.02 bits

If the house edge is 1% and the wager is 1 bit then why is the expected value -0.02 bits and not -0.01 bits?

[hua_hui]

Hope I will not bring bad luck with me as Dooglus did  (j/k as well)

It's not the first time. It often seems to be that when I invest in a bankroll the site starts losing.

I refuse to believe I'm causing it to happen, but it is a little disturbing.

well u r not the only one. whenever i start investing in anything, it will just start to go down. however, i believe moneypot will continue to grow stronger and hope it can get back up to ~130btc again.

the only website that does not drop immediately after i invest is justdice. lol but a few days later, it happen that is goes to negative profits due to whale bettings.

[Greentree]

My investment extremely went down, what is happening?

[RHavar]

If the house edge is 1% and the wager is 1 bit then why is the expected value -0.02 bits and not -0.01 bits?

In the display layer, all values are floored to the satoshi. This is so if someone has 1.9 satoshi it shows up as 0.01 bits. Even though it's closer to 0.02 bits, it shows as 0.01 to prevent people trying to withdraw 0.02 (which wouldn't be allowed). Internally MP keeps a lot more precision than that.

So the bet in question has **slightly** less EV than 1 satoshi, so the format function is flooring it, which makes it show  as -0.02.  (Actually that's the reason the values above it aren't displayed nicely, so you can see the precise value)

[RHavar]

My investment extremely went down, what is happening?

https://www.moneypot.com/apps/497-investdice

has resulted in about ~73.5 BTC of investor loses and counting 

[investdice]

My investment extremely went down, what is happening?

A player on my site InvestDice is currently winning big with his army of bots.

Current site stats:
Bets:   3,119,385
Wagered:   2,375,810,754.30 bits
Bets Profit:   -65,927,146.68 bits (-2.77%)
Expected Profit:   23,359,321.24 bits (0.98%)

[e1ghtSpace]

What happened to the old money pot website where there was a graph and you had to cash out before it crashed?

[actmyname]

What happened to the old money pot website where there was a graph and you had to cash out before it crashed?

That domain and website is now known as "bustabit".

You can go to the website to find it again.

[e1ghtSpace]

What happened to the old money pot website where there was a graph and you had to cash out before it crashed?

That domain and website is now known as "bustabit".

You can go to the website to find it again.

Ah awesome. The owner gave me 0.028 one time. It was awesome.
I also one a bet of 2 bits x 120. That was fun.

[RHavar]

What happened to the old money pot website where there was a graph and you had to cash out before it crashed?

That domain and website is now known as "bustabit".

You can go to the website to find it again.

Also accounts were carried over to that domain, so it's safe to enter your old username/password =)

[RHavar]

The deviation from the expected profit is crazy. I could understand it if the site has only a few thousands of bets, but it has over 2.8 millions bets already. How unlikely is it for a site to have an expected profit of 0.98% and to have an actual profit of -1.91% over so many bets?

It's impossible to answer that question if you don't tell me the distribution of the bet sizes.

If all the bets were the same size, it's very unlikely. If 1% of the bets were significantly bigger than the other 99% then it's much more likely, because only 1% of the bets would be significant to the total site profit.

When Just-Dice was running for BTC we had billions of bets and ended up with an actual profit of around 0.35% when the expected profit was 1%. That's because a small percentage of the bets were huge, and they did better than expected. The billions of tiny bets have little to no impact on the bottom line.

On this app there's been made:

572102 bets @ 0.0001 BTC (on 2x). 282271 have won, and 289831 lost resulting in a net player loss of 0.756 BTC.  
543899 bets @ 0.0002 BTC (on 2x). 269188 have won, and 274711 lost resulting in a net player loss of 1.1046 BTC
277403 bets @ 0.0004 BTC (on 2x). 137664 have won, and 139739 lost resulting in a net player loss of 0.83 BTC
140016 bets @ 0.0008 BTC (on 2x).   69327 have won, and  70689 lost resulting in a net player loss of 1.08 BTC


This sort of general trend continues, unless you get to the bets that have only been done a few times, where the player(s) have got rather lucky

e.g.

82 bets @ 4 BTC  (on 2x). 45 won, and 37 lost resulting in a net player win of 32 btc
8   bets @ 6 BTC  (on 2x).   5 won, and 3 lost  resulting in a net player win of  12 btc


so actually, the small bets haven't really done much but added a lot of noise. The investors would be far worse off without them

[BigMac]

The deviation from the expected profit is crazy. I could understand it if the site has only a few thousands of bets, but it has over 2.8 millions bets already. How unlikely is it for a site to have an expected profit of 0.98% and to have an actual profit of -1.91% over so many bets?

It's impossible to answer that question if you don't tell me the distribution of the bet sizes.

If all the bets were the same size, it's very unlikely. If 1% of the bets were significantly bigger than the other 99% then it's much more likely, because only 1% of the bets would be significant to the total site profit.

When Just-Dice was running for BTC we had billions of bets and ended up with an actual profit of around 0.35% when the expected profit was 1%. That's because a small percentage of the bets were huge, and they did better than expected. The billions of tiny bets have little to no impact on the bottom line.

On this app there's been made:

572102 bets @ 0.0001 BTC (on 2x). 282271 have won, and 289831 lost resulting in a net player loss of 0.756 BTC. 
543899 bets @ 0.0002 BTC (on 2x). 269188 have won, and 274711 lost resulting in a net player loss of 1.1046 BTC
277403 bets @ 0.0004 BTC (on 2x). 137664 have won, and 139739 lost resulting in a net player loss of 0.83 BTC
140016 bets @ 0.0008 BTC (on 2x).   69327 have won, and  70689 lost resulting in a net player loss of 1.08 BTC


This sort of general trend continues, unless you get to the bets that have only been done a few times, where the player(s) have got rather lucky

e.g.

82 bets @ 4 BTC  (on 2x). 45 won, and 37 lost resulting in a net player win of 32 btc
8   bets @ 6 BTC  (on 2x).   5 won, and 3 lost  resulting in a net player win of  12 btc


so actually, the small bets haven't really done much but added a lot of noise. The investors would be far worse off without them

I see. Looking at the stats of only those 4 btc and 6 btc bets, the players are lucky but it is not as improbable as I imagined.

[dooglus]

On this app there's been made:

572102 bets @ 0.0001 BTC (on 2x). 282271 have won, and 289831 lost resulting in a net player loss of 0.756 BTC.  
543899 bets @ 0.0002 BTC (on 2x). 269188 have won, and 274711 lost resulting in a net player loss of 1.1046 BTC
277403 bets @ 0.0004 BTC (on 2x). 137664 have won, and 139739 lost resulting in a net player loss of 0.83 BTC
140016 bets @ 0.0008 BTC (on 2x).   69327 have won, and  70689 lost resulting in a net player loss of 1.08 BTC

This sort of general trend continues, unless you get to the bets that have only been done a few times, where the player(s) have got rather lucky

e.g.

82 bets @ 4 BTC  (on 2x). 45 won, and 37 lost resulting in a net player win of 32 btc
8   bets @ 6 BTC  (on 2x).   5 won, and 3 lost  resulting in a net player win of  12 btc

so actually, the small bets haven't really done much but added a lot of noise. The investors would be far worse off without them

That last line contradicts itself. Are the small bets not much but noise, or would the investors be far worse off without them?

[RHavar]

That last line contradicts itself. Are the small bets not much but noise, or would the investors be far worse off without them?

Or does it? I like to think of the small bets like the gentle sound that a fan makes when helping you go to sleep, while getting interrupted by the gang war outside (the big bets).



But being serious, "noise" was probably the wrong word to use. I just meant that the small bets are greatly inflating the total-bet count, which makes the win look a lot less likely than it actually is, all the while actually benefiting investor.

[ranlo]

That last line contradicts itself. Are the small bets not much but noise, or would the investors be far worse off without them?

Or does it? I like to think of the small bets like the gentle sound that a fan makes when helping you go to sleep, while getting interrupted by the gang war outside (the big bets).



But being serious, "noise" was probably the wrong word to use. I just meant that the small bets are greatly inflating the total-bet count, which makes the win look a lot less likely than it actually is, all the while actually benefiting investor.

Yeah, you worded that badly. When I read it I was like "how could these small bets be bad for investors?" The important thing for everyone to remember is that the more bets there are, the closer you'll get to the expected profit. 100 bets could swing either way, but 100 million would be a better representation. In this case, some bets just happened to be lucky over a small set. And looking at profit now, it looks like he lost a lot (or someone did).