Back to my point...if ASIC's are needed for the decentralized network they plan and the NETWORK IS NOT IN PLACE YET to compete with Amazon
at the supposed 10c to 1.00 format, etc...and IF the siacoin price NOW is based on scarcity..it won't matter...no one will turn on equip of any flavor
asic, gpu or otherwise for a coin that has no value in that it is 1) no longer based on scarcity for price (esp if 5x the ASIC's driving up difficulty and coin
production) and 2) no network for these ASIC's to contribute to.
you can't have both the coin is either 1) valuable because of scarcity vs use or 2) valutble for use in their decentralized network
I'm just saying I see no such decentralized network in place in any manner large enough nor complete enough to pull the price out of the dumps ..indeed
it will make it worse for price of siacoin in the obvious fact of no network in place and a lot of asic's sitting about..folk will NOT run their asic's at an electrial
loss....price of siacoin will not stay up just on speculaltion of network coming and previous scarcity ..thus plunk
if you doubt that look at the amount of asic's that were dumped vs the LTC price as of today...difficulty overstepped the value of the coin (LTC) ...
so a muddled mess indeed..hope it won't happen....but not hearing a lot of the decentralized network hitting the world at the same time as all the asic's
hit the siacoin world either
sure, amount of sia coin will be 'the same' but a lot of coin does not mean it keeps value....
Again, even if it dropped back to GPU mining and the ASIC's are off the electric use is the same more or less....the coin will not survive if they
say they made a mess of ASIC's for their decentralized solution to storage...and 'guess what' it is not there or they postpone it for a year
and the current crop of asic's are of no use to run....speculators will walk, gpu miners will not compete with asic's that also are going to go
off or in a dismal state...it is like the old paycoin cloud mining viewpoint...if the rug is pulled out from under the concept..than it won't matter
how many coin there are....the consumers will go to more successful coins, that would not have the damage of the above from a late
network launch and asic's in the tank unable to be used for anything of note, because price of siacoin tanks on the above fiasco.
Sure the network would survive, sure sia-tech would likely survive even such a missed launch...but could siacoin ever recover after such
a fiasco...doubtful...money talks and bullsh*t walks....folk would walk with eventual coin being worth nothing in their vision was not up to
speed on the storage solution when they said and with the asic dump (investment) of equipment not able to be used....ie coin would tank
and likely stay tanked in price IMHO, would be too much of a boat anchor on development etc, folk would move on to other projects with
such a failure, again IMHO.
You miss the point...look at your LTC example...people give up, difficulty drops, remaining people earn more...then people that gave up come back, and back-forth
few times, it settles at perfect point for most people involved
As for SIA coin and its future purpose...you described 98% coins on the market...wheres monaco VISAcard? Wheres OmiseGO network? Do STORJ have
finished product? etc
We can only hope (and technically savvy maybe check for themselves) that team is doing right and folowing its roadmap
ah, I was unclear, with LTC and scrypt-pow 90% of all the miners that are on that network are Bitmain L3+'s THE SAME MODEL AND GENERATION OF MINERS, thus some folk contact me
they are losing 12c a day
on such a unit and myself I'm losing at 14c kwh in a data hall 64c a day. BUT EVERYONE IS LOSING AND UNDER WATER ...THE SAME. Thus when diff goes down, don't' matter everyone
is up, when diff goes down everyone shuts down..but the price never changes because ALL THE SAME TYPE AND GENERATION OF EQUIPMENT...so we can go along
and follow difficulty up and down..but if there is MORE equipment at the high difficulty than there is coin ..that people want to buy (LTC and all scrypt pow coins now)
then EVENTUALLY, everyone will turn off the miners, because at every difficulty drop or rise they are on/off thus difficulty for scrypt pow anyway..which is calculated
every 3 days...never REALLY goes down...same unicorns...all mining at a loss at $120 LTC I was losing 45c a day at 88 LTC I'm losing 67c a day..see....all the same units involved.
same thing with siacoin....IF you have a lot of ASIC's and NO reason for the price of siacoin because the decentralized network is not up when the ASIC's are turned
on they are NOT turned on...IF there is a profit ..even briefly, they ALL turn on, thus negating your price...you have to pay electric on your units..so eventually, you
just don't pay the electric and no one mines at a loss...their vision has to be up and hitting the world in stride to compete in the next 2 weeks or so, i don't see this as likely.
this is IF they don't have the decentralized network using ASIC's at 10c to $1.00 amazon prices in place...if the price of siacoin is based on this idea of this network
being up and running and the ASIC's need it up and running to at least break even on electric..the whole thing fails...because the current price is based on this idea it
will be up (speculation) and with ASIC's the scarcity of coin issue goes away as difficulty goes up rapidly as everyone mines.
My premise is they HAVE TO WANT TO KEEP AND HODL SIACOIN ..the NON-ASIC miners....and the ASIC miners need a price to pay electric at least to break even
and some extra siacoin in the bank for their troubles...NONE of this will be possible if you simply have a mess of ASIC'S making coin and the decentralized network and their
siacoin storage solution is not in place and getting folk to buy it..if
is not in place..that is called FAILURE and the NON-Miner's who are buying and holding siacoin will stop doing so...and the coin will dump to dust.
So the faith in the coin is based on their vision and the investment on that vision by folk who got ASIC's you take that away, because their supposed decentralized
network is not in place for the folk that invested in the ASIC'S ..WHAT DO YOU THINK WILL HAPPEN? PLUNK DOWN SHE GOES
can't have it both ways, the blockchain does not exist just because the coin exists....the coin exist as its vision dictates ..the shafting of say those who got
ASIC's and any big delay in getting their decentralized network to MAKE $$$$ to compete against amazon as their vision....will also add to the tanking or
failure of their coin...I just don't see any real promotion or communication that they can jump into JULY 2018 and take enough cloud storage away from folk
to make money and get the ASIC's up to mine the network for this to work out of the box.
You can't state the coin does such and such, and the network will be ready by so and so, and not deliver to folk who already have sia-coin (HODL) and
have invested in specific ASIC's and not be able to even make electric costs back...the coin will tank in purpose/project and price.
AS this relates to current difficulty with scrypt-pow and LTC ...again, all the same equipment...with the same issues as sia-tech equipment, no one has any advantage
side point on the LTC ..they are all the same equipment (L3+'s) NO ONE HAS AN ADVANTAGE MINING IT IS ALL AT A LOSS.
AS to Bitmain units that do blake2b at 815mh and 1,375 watts....with the majority of
Bitmain units PROBABLY out of the running at 1,375 watts for 815mh....the remaining units of which Obelisk sc-1's at 800mh and 500 watts are probably a
good 90% of all the equipment ..THAT CURRENTLY CAN RUN AT THESE SIACOIN PRICES...thus.waiting for the decentralized network it is THE SAME AS THE CURRENT
scrypt-pow and L3+ miners...NO ONE HAS ANY
ADVANTAGE IN EQUIPMENT OVER ANYONE ELSE with rising difficulty..thus all go off and on at the same time ...especially if they are mining at an
electrical loss...a future/supposed NEXT GENERATION EQUIPMENT may work as you state...it does not exist ..at least from other mnfgs at a price point
vs mining vs electric that would make any difference..that I can tell now, .indeed it could be just GPU miners doing it on the side..but at prices an ASIC can make
siacoin vs the price ..even that would not make sense..in ASIC's are more efficient ..that also IMHO, would be very short lived.
again, the whole thing has to come together to cover the ASIC network, sia coin storage vision in place, to keep/get the price to a point that the
ASIC's can maintain the network of decentralized storage at a price that makes sense over electric..again if that is not met ..and EVERYONE
has the same equipment and NO advantage, again, IMHO, it never gets off the ground, price tanks, and the project dies.
again, can't have your cake and eat it too....all have to come together UNLESS a new more eff miner comes out...but then again, once
burnt by these now previous never to ROI miners that are behind the curve even before the launch...no one would buy...
so tell me the network is ready and in place to compete with Amazon centralized storage and the rest via siacoins vision of decentralized storage, competing from the get go
with siacoin ASIC'S can make more than they use in electric and all is well...but not seeing enough noise/hype etc on this happening...again, deafening silence
in that the majority of ASIC's by Sia-Tech are to be dumped into the world by the July 15th, 2018.
Again, using the scrypt-pow and LTC universe and the same type of equipment as an example..the ASIC's in that coin universe ran difficulty up to such a point
with the same equipment, (thus no advantage due to no competition) that now the price can't catch up and the network is in danger of collapsing and super
sizing the price down even further.
Again, without their vision in place and running alongside the ASIC's and competing with the Amazon centralized storage and a real good reason with the price less, to
be a great alternative to Amazon Storage...or the whole endeavor..well,
it will all not get off the ground...stuck
anyway, perhaps I'm incorrect...but again, not seeing it...
and again, hope I'm wrong (I'm 5 obelisks into their vision and competition..really want to be wrong)
brad
