Throwing all the Martin Armstrong related posts here, that kLee deleted from his PnF thread in the Speculation subforum. I think this commentary is too valuable to be lost from the public eye. Thanks to kLee for creating this extra work for me.
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PnF looks promising though.
huh Let kLee fool himself so he can learn the hard way, but I thought you were based in mathematical facts not superstitution.
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TPTB with all the respect to you and Armstrong can we keep this thread PnF related?
I will leave, but before I go I want to point out that PnF and other technical anal-sis, is useless. Quoting Armstrong's energy model points out why that is the case (thus on topic). I've helped you make some money which you desperately need given your illness.
Any way good luck, I will not post in your threads again.
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macgsa,
Here is more info on Armstrong's models. See for example the Energy Model which is claimed to be an improvement on one-dimensional oscillators or stochastic indicators.
http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/modelsP.S. Don't tell iCebreaker, he might blow a fuse.
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I will LMAO when we breach $300 and then stabilize above it never to see below again.
If we move significantly above $400, then you can LMAO with confidence. Otherwise, you are very likely to be the greater fool, based on Armstrong's thesis of public vs. private assets and the timing of the coming contagion in October as I explained upthread.
Remember capital flows chase capital flows, because of the wealth effect (i.e. the market price and thus market cap > the capital invested). Thus when the stampede is in a certain direction, capital follows there and out of where it was. Then you have to add the margin calls and leverage induced liquidity contagion that exacerbates the effect.
Has Armstrong specifically stated anything about future BTC predictions? That would've been a nice incentive for me to buy his "Socrates" S/W.
Afaik he makes only predictions regarding to gold. And Anonymint treats gold and bitcoins the same way, as private assets.
Afaik he has written about private assets as a class of assets, not only as gold. He has explained how the US stock market has apparently phased shifted and moved recently from being aligned with public assets to alignment with private assets, which is why it is moving into a low for October instead of a blowoff peak. Back in August 2012 when he predicted a doubling or tripling of the US stock market, he made it clear that this could either come before October or in 2017, depending on whether the stock market phased shifted or not. By now, he is reasonably certain it has phase shifted. The USD has also aligned with private assets for the period 2015.75 to 2017.95. After that 2017.95, all hell will break loose, pandemics, global war, etc.. and the USD is toast.
He has not written about Bitcoin except to say he hates cryptocurrency and thinks it is doomed. I dismiss this as myopia on his part because his global flows models can't pick up on such small caps and he hates it because he thinks all cryptocurrency is associated with the move to electronic money totalitarianism and he also looks at it as a false hope at odds with his "Solution Conference" solution (debt for equity swaps).
It is possible that Bitcoin is off in its own world and has no correlation to other private assets. I strongly doubt it.
The speculative ramps for Bitcoin in 2011 and 2013 correlated with those in gold and silver. Bitcoin has been aligning itself with private assets, just with more speculative volatility because it was such a small market cap.
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trading is so easy when we have a machine that predicts the future and you guys to translate its data
thanks!
Yw, but remember one has to be cautious until the market has confirmed. Looks like we have confirmation now.
So many people saying I am insane or am on ignore. Hopefully insanely rich and peacefully ignored, lol.
http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/34170Each aspect of PRICE, TIME, and Pattern Recognition (Global Market Watch) is entirely independent. Therefore, we gave three levels on the Dow the 18500, 23000, and 32000/40000. When we introduce TIME, the first opportunity for a major high was 2015.75 and the three price targets would then come into play. So while the maximum objective would have been 32000/40,000 as early as 2015, we have been unable to get through the first target at 18500. Hence, if we saw a price advance to 23,000 with the TIME of the ECM (October 1, 2015), then we should expect a correction because we met both TIME and PRICE. Failing to reach that next threshold at 23,000 means the next TIME target becomes 2017. Exceeding 23,000 before TIME means you then go to the next target in PRICE, being the 32,000/40,000 area.
We identify time windows and for such targets; to form important highs or lows there MUST be the alignment of both TIME and PRICE unfolding often according to Pattern Recognition.
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http://armstrongeconomics.com/archives/33539Silver is headed below $12 and gold below $1050.
Most likely bottoming below $9 and $850. The lowest possible for gold in the $600s.
We have a bounce here in BTC and PMs, then headed for lower lows, which means < $150 for BTC and probably double-digits
It will be a blood bath.
You've been warned. And I have not been wrong since I started following Armstrong some years ago.
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kLee with such narrow bands you can easily get stopped out by volatility. If you want to be a day trader, you need Armstrong's entropy model to do it well. You'd be wise to pay for his services. If you can't afford, then stop day trading because you will end up losing.
As a small investor, you can HODL or you can bet on understanding Armstrong's model broadly.
I am placing good odds on a bounce to $315 and I am long. At $315 I will be short until we get that blood bath < $100. I have confidence in the model, because I understand why it is predicting this. And it makes sense from many different vantage points. For example, look at the poll of the expected prices for 2015. 36% think $1000+. So we still need a blood bath to wash out all the fools. The reason we are getting a rally here is because it is necessary to maximize the amount money the fools want to lose, as they will double-down and buy more and then HODL all the way down to the bottom. The chart you quoted which shows the rally after every multi-week period of low volatility is apropos.
Armstrong pointed out that June and July are the season of the year for gold (thus private assets such as Bitcoin) to rally.
The risk you are failing to attribute to gold is that you won't be able to find any where to sell it.
The government will close down all black markets when they move us to electronic money.
Black markets can only exist where the mainstream money is not trackable. Ponder that.
Your only chance to not lose all your wealth will be an anonymous crypto-currency. Remember I warned you and you didn't listen.
Why would someone who has anonymous crypto-currency want to trade it for gold wherein they risk their anonymity in a sting operation. Duh.
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I think Armstrong does sell different levels of access to his model. My vague understanding from his vague descriptions is that his stochastic model for day trading incorporates another dimension of structure that is hidden within the price data.
Apologies haven't replied to you on your thread. Armstrong made some new posts about chaos this past week on his blog. Hope you have time to review them and quote from them to your thread for posterity. I don't have time.
Silver is headed below $12 and gold below $1050.
The reason for that is the strong Dollar.
No. You will see the private assets rise with the dollar after October.
The reason is because there is a mad rush into the short end of the bond curve in Europe as the contagion there develops into the BIG BANG in October (which btw has been predicting by Armstrong since 1985 when he first published his model's prediction!).
Understand that capital chases capital, because it heads where the prices are rising the fastest.
So this is sucking capital out of other assets.
Also during a contagion, the most liquid (not leveraged assets) are sold first.
This coming low in private assets is to set up their massive rise after the BIG BANG in October.
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The mad rush into short end of the yield curve for safe haven in bonds will be the peak of government Oct 2015 (i.e. public assets), which will be a low in private assets (i.e. stocks, gold, Bitcoin).
After that we in the crazy global sovereign debt collapse and private assets will rise like crazy.
For the moment we are having a seasonal summer bounce in private assets to suck in all the greater fools before the collapse into the low Oct 2015. Of course it is possible that this summer rally already peaked. I was thinking more to $315, but it doesn't have to be. I still think it will, to pull in more "Bitcoin to the mood types".
The WEC will be critical to surviving what comes next, not just a single day. The crazy period we face is 2015.75 into 2017.90.
We have been warning that we may see a Phase Transition in equities BEGIN with the 2015.75 and the FALSE MOVE. But this should be the PEAK in government – NOT the peak in markets outside of interest rates.
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The mad rush into short end of the yield curve for safe haven in bonds will be the peak of government Oct 2015 (i.e. public assets), which will be a low in private assets (i.e. stocks, gold, Bitcoin).
After that we in the crazy global sovereign debt collapse and private assets will rise like crazy.
For the moment we are having a seasonal summer bounce in private assets to suck in all the greater fools before the collapse into the low Oct 2015. Of course it is possible that this summer rally already peaked. I was thinking more to $315, but it doesn't have to be. I still think it will, to pull in more "Bitcoin to the mood types".
The WEC will be critical to surviving what comes next, not just a single day. The crazy period we face is 2015.75 into 2017.90.
We have been warning that we may see a Phase Transition in equities BEGIN with the 2015.75 and the FALSE MOVE. But this should be the PEAK in government – NOT the peak in markets outside of interest rates.
I am really curious how it will play out. Your point makes sense in my eyes, i am just not brave enough to sell my coins in hope to buy back significantly lower. These are very interesting times.
The best (safest) choice right now is to HODL and wait. I've no intention on moving even a tiny bit.
I will be selling every BTC I own if we hit $300. And doubling my BTC when I buy back below $150.
I can't promise that of course, but I've watched Armstrong's model over the years and it has always been correct (if you understand how time and price are orthogonal and you need to weigh other factors in the model). For example, it predicted the closing price for oil Dec. 31, 2014 at $54 back when oil was $100+ and no one was expecting the collapse.
There absolutely will be a mad stampede into the short-end of the yield curve in bonds in Europe as the debt contagion LIQUIDITY CRISIS over there is unleashed over the next few months. When the Europeans return from summer vacations, all hell is going to break out over there.
There are a lot of Europeans holding BTC and when they need to raise cash because of the liquidity crisis that will be caused by the contagion, they will sell what is liquid.
Must read:
http://armstrongeconomics.com/archives/33799http://armstrongeconomics.com/archives/33843http://armstrongeconomics.com/archives/33837P.S. my resolve is aided also by the fact that I am working on an altcoin and think I will see a lot more upside there than I ever will with BTC, thus I my perspective on BTC is as more a savings account and not an investment (relatively speaking). This removes a lot of the "Bitcoin to the moon" emotion that clouds the rationality of others. They are too married to their investment.