Martin Armstrong Discussion

[TPTB_need_war]

China is reverting to credit stimulus after attempts to engineer a stock market boom failed horribly. The day of reckoning is delayed again

It is too late. CONFIDENCE has been broken and the Chinese are moving short. The Minsky Moment is here.

When the government bans short selling, you know CONFIDENCE is gone. The shorts will pile on using proxies.

The government made it worse by pumping up bubbles, so now being short is much more profitable than being long by any probability. The Chinese are like dogs who can smell which way the leverage blows.

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[macsga]

[1] the reason I say that is because the Euro is preparing to gap down starting roughly in September or October. Or you short the Euro. I didn't run the numbers on that. I had BTC and needed to make a decision on my BTC. I don't have a brokerage account any more.

Go to stockcharts.com and run a 1 year chart on $EURUSD, then $GOLD, then $BRENT. Then go run a 1 year chart of BTC.

You see all dumped at the same time starting in August 2014.  All these assets are correlated at this time.

 

Good point. I still stand on my thesis though

In the meanwhile I stumbled upon this article from Armstrong:

China Moving Closer to Taking the Yuan International
Posted on July 24, 2015 by Martin Armstrong
Shanghai-2

China’s move to create a yuan based contract for gold was portrayed by the gold promoters cheering this as their savior, but for all the hype, the mere fact that gold will trade in yuan was neither bullish for gold nor any means of displacing the dollar. What this development does is effectively provide a way to hedge the yuan, for playing a yuan contract on the same commodity expressed in dollars is a de facto currency futures contract. You can buy in dollars and sell in yuan if you are bearish in the yuan or vice versa. As long as it is the same underlying commodity then the net difference becomes a way of just trading the currency.

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/34314

[macsga]

China is reverting to credit stimulus after attempts to engineer a stock market boom failed horribly. The day of reckoning is delayed again

It is too late. CONFIDENCE has been broken and the Chinese are moving short. The Minsky Moment is here.

When the government bans short selling, you know CONFIDENCE is gone. The shorts will pile on using proxies.

The government made it worse by pumping up bubbles, so now being short is much more profitable than being long by any probability. The Chinese are like dogs who can smell which way the leverage blows.

LOL, I might as well stop participating, we're thinking so much alike it's getting ridiculous. 

[TPTB_need_war]

Right on time for the Sept/Oct turn of the ECM (and the computer model prediction of massive volatility in the Euro from November until January), Armstrong's prediction the Fed would raise rates. South Africa already did. Other emerging markets will have to raise to protect their currencies and forex reserves.

So there is your factor to drive debt contagion. Rising interest rates.

Euro will collapse below parity dragging gold and BTC down.

We are going to shake out (pauperize) all those Bitards who have been criticizing me and Armstrong for the past 2 years. Wise crypto-currency investors will sell out to dollars here around $300 or (if they can stomach the risk) even short BTC.

May be it's just USD is currently being pumped so that everything else goes down compared to USD ?
Can it be that IMF and the Fed decided to sell all of it's gold, silver and other reserves to pump USD and Dow ?

If you had been reading Martin Armstrong's blog and my posts here, you'd have known for over 2 years that the dollar would becoming stronger because all the QE sent out into the world as carry trade of the ZIRP is going come rushing back to the USA (leaving the rest of the world in a short position in dollars bankrupting the emerging markets) as it will be safe haven as the rest of the world collapses. This would cause the USA to raise interest rates, thus compounding the problem for all nations except the USA. The target date was Oct 2015. Right on time...

[TPTB_need_war]

@TPTB, have you made a post demonstrating through proofs or at least exemples why you think the axis of powers of today are merely smoke and mirrors and they are actually working together?

You think it was an accident?

The Fed accidentally released a confidential analysis of where interest rates are going

[tabnloz]

Funny thing, I noticed I recognised one of the people involved in Armstrong's documentary The Forecaster, a very well respected sibling of a friend. I asked him his opinion of MA, he said 'the man is a genius'.

[TPTB_need_war]

Can anyone explain why even though the dates in the following chart do not align on a 8.6 year cycle, that Armstrong is not deviating from the scientific method?



P.S. This is a test. I can explain it. Hint, pay careful attention to what the dates represent and what the 8.6 cycle represents and then read his other post and this one.

wavefronts interference. The business cycle is not the same wave as the international crisis cycle. This is why you would need computer to search all of fractal patterns and pull out the cycles from the interference.

[TPTB_need_war]

You fools need to start taking me seriously!

China has entered its waterfall collapse (to bottom by 2020 before the West will).

http://socialblessing.com/chinas-rapid-economic-slowdown-is-probably-even-worse-than-the-government-will-admit/

Expert JCapital’s Anne Stevenson-Yang (shocking!!):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C2SStFt-k_A (skip to 3 min point in the video)



http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/04/19/fractional-banking-china/

You can really start to feel 2015.75 coming. This is going to be a harder fall than 2007-2009 for outside the USA we are in a declining mode since 2007, which should bottom by 2020. This is a DEBT CRISIS not a bubble in stocks or commodities thins time.

As of tomorrow morning, the central bank of China has cut its reserve ration by 1%. So fractional banking is being increased to confront the problems we truly face. When the US economy turns down, it is not going to be a pretty sight.

Extra reading:

http://blog.mpettis.com/2014/12/how-might-a-china-slowdown-affect-the-world/

http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2015/04/us-growing-faster-china/

http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2014/11/how-jobs-will-queer-chinese-rebalancing/

[macsga]

I have often noted that this is nothing but a race with time. The flask has so many holes that the water is all over the place. Here comes China for a strong rebound:

Chinese shares tumble 8.5 percent in biggest one-day drop since 2007

Chinese shares slid more than 8 percent on Monday as an unprecedented government rescue plan to prop up valuations ran out of steam, throwing Beijing's efforts to stave off a deeper crash into doubt.

Major indexes suffered their largest one-day drop since 2007, shattering three weeks of relative calm in China's volatile stock markets since Beijing unleashed a barrage of support measures to arrest a slump that started in mid-June.

"The lesson from China's last equity bubble is that, once sentiment has soured, policy interventions aimed at shoring up prices have only a short-lived effect," wrote Capital Economics analysts in a research note reacting to the slide.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/27/us-markets-china-stocks-idUSKCN0Q10KE20150727

[Afrikoin]

Following keenly.

Q: How would these expected events affect the economies of East African countries for example? _Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda. OR even broadly Sub Saharan African countries? They're considered frontier economies,emerging somewhat, nascent capital markets.

Dependent on FDI, remittances, paltry VC flow and foreign investors on local exchanges. Possibly more?

[macsga]

Following keenly.

Q: How would these expected events affect the economies of East African countries for example? _Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda. OR even broadly Sub Saharan African countries? They're considered frontier economies,emerging somewhat, nascent capital markets.

Dependent on FDI, remittances, paltry VC flow and foreign investors on local exchanges. Possibly more?

Under such a dramatic economic event, no one should be considered 'unaffected'. IMHO, the less an economy is exposed to the USD/EUR Banking System & Markets, the better. Africa (certain countries atm) have managed to achieve an extremely good economic infrastructure behavior, mainly because of the fact that the big companies of the West have left them alone due to:

a. their mines were depleted
b. low commodities demand

Don't get me wrong, everybody will be affected. But you will have the least problems of us all.

Just my 20c.

[darlidada]

So who is shorting bitcoin right now ? Who's waiting for 3XX to short it?

[macsga]

So who is shorting bitcoin right now ? Who's waiting for 3XX to short it?

As TPTB_need_war wrote "it needs a strong stomach" to do so. I've lost quite too many so far to try and short now (or at any price less than $3000). BUT; I know one thing for sure. No risk - no reward. Many people have the ability (and the money/BTC) to risk without caring. I don't. If you don't feel comfortable with a (possible) opportunity, don't do it. Simple as that.

[av123]

So who is shorting bitcoin right now ? Who's waiting for 3XX to short it?

As TPTB_need_war wrote "it needs a strong stomach" to do so. I've lost quite too many so far to try and short now (or at any price less than $3000). BUT; I know one thing for sure. No risk - no reward. Many people have the ability (and the money/BTC) to risk without caring. I don't. If you don't feel comfortable with a (possible) opportunity, don't do it. Simple as that.

I don't have the appetite to short either. It will be interesting to see what happens in light of the bull market in the dollar. This is a quote from Raoul Pal in this month's Global Macro Investor newsletter:

"I think that the dollar is the only thing that matters. My view remains that we are in the early stages of what will prove to be one of the biggest dollar bull markets in history, and it is going to reap devastation on the global economy..."

Link here: https://www.hvst.com/posts/47293-global-macro-investor-july-2015-monthly

[TPTB_need_war]

This query:

https://www.google.com.ph/search?q=site%3Aarmstrongeconomics.com+Windows+8+spyware

Returns:

Your search - site:armstrongeconomics.com Windows 8 spyware - did not match any documents.

Any other query on "site:armstrongeconomics.com" returns a slew of listings. I know for a fact that Armstrong wrote numerous times about how Windows 8 is spyware. But now I can't find a single listing via Google. So this tells you in whose back pocket Google is in.

I ran the same search again on duckduckgo.com and received many listings!

[Wekkel]

As from Windows 10, Cortana will be listening all the time 

[TPTB_need_war]

MA still can't admit TPTB (axis powers) are staging and inciting the conflicts using propaganda to control the minds of the masses:

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/35448

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/35483

[RAJSALLIN]

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/35453

[bigtimespaghetti]

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/35453

I haven't seen armstrong write on crypto, cheers. Not much content in it- but at least a peek into Armstrong's opinions on them.

[RAJSALLIN]

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/35453

I haven't seen armstrong write on crypto, cheers. Not much content in it- but at least a peek into Armstrong's opinions on them.

He has been pretty clear about his negative opinion on bitcoin. On the other hand he says we're headed to electronic money fast. Not sure how he feels these don't match but I think it's partly due to the fact governments will never allow a form of currency that they don't control. He also doesn't seem to understand the point of an anonymous crypto and how powerful it could be. Maybe Anonymint can elaborate.