Martin Armstrong Discussion

[tabnloz]

Does MA read my writings here, or do we just have a lot of similarity in our thinking:

Not even Trump will be able to stop this meltdown and will most likely be blamed for it.

Actually quite a few people out there thinking along these lines, so you're in good company 

Do you have any thoughts on this? Trump has started to pivot away from appeasing China (which was Obama's policy) and being more accommodating to Russia. But, he also seems to be upping the ante on Iran (opposite of Obama / kerry) - a Russian ally less interested in invasion / spreading empire but who challenges Saudi for regional dominance in Middle East. What's the play here?

Classic divide and conquer.
With his kind of irrational foreign policy and personality he is letting all the big players about his next step in the dark.

His opponents are pretty much in a limbo now and are just reacting to his next executive order (until now nobody has the guts to face the US directly).
I dont think trump is anti-war especially as his closest advisers are bannon and navarro who think a war with china is inevitable. Imho this is just the preparation for something big coming.

At the lastest when the trump promises with debt and tax reduction, getting manufacturing jobs back etc pp wont work out he will need a war to distract the US population from the obvious.

Edit

Putin has the ambitions to make russia great again and not only economical. This is not a secret (Chechenya, crimea, syria).

Pippa Malmgren's book Signals also sees a big chance of conflict with China, almost inevitably. China needs control that area of ocean to feed its population. Just happens that this is also a major shipping route. US recognizes this and has pivoted to Asia since 2012.

Good point about Trump is forcing countries to be reactionary.

Not sure I agree re: Russia. Their gdp is the same as New York and they are resource self sufficient. Don't think they have global ambitions like the US, but their geopolitic strategy wants to keep their ports (Crimea & warm water in Syria) and monopolize the flow of gas in Europe. If anything they do want to (brutally) keep their former USSR states in check (violently quelling any anti Moscow movements) and fend off NATO builds ups along these borders. The CIA overthrew the Ukraine govt. Imagine if Russia sent a force to Cuba again, how it would be perceived.

I really put the Trump phenomenon down to the disconnect between classes. Globalism has destroyed the social contract ( the Sir james Goldsmith youtube videos are are great explanation). There does seem to be a plan that Clinton used; promote Trump as he was seen as a weaker candidate. They saw Bush as the threat and Trumps blanket coverage in the press was encouraged by the Clinton cronies. But, it backfired because from their bubble they couldn't smell the real world discontent.

Remember Rothschilds said they historically decided who goes to war and when, and I had documented upthread that they put Trump in office.

No doubt the elites had a plan for the possibility of Trump winning. It's a two horse race and they always bet on both. It's not as if a war has never been fought forat the whim of the powerful



Bannon is an American nationalist and their way forward seems clear - protect America at home and defend it abroad, both economically and militarily. The US/China/Russia are the big three and the best way to play it is to form alliances to marginalize one party.

Siding with Russia means the US controls the Mid East shitfight. Perhaps the play is leave Assad in Syria to appease Moscow (and destroy Daesh) but marginalize Iran to keep the Saudi's happy? How will China get their oil?

A Russian alliance also controls Europe. Russia keeps the gas dominance but provides a bulwark against China. Maybe keeping Europe in an economic depression deals China a massive economic blow (their biggest market), although the EU seems to be doing a credible job of this themselves.

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[iamnotback]

Remember Rothschilds said they historically decided who goes to war and when, and I had documented upthread that they put Trump in office.

No doubt the elites had a plan for the possibility of Trump winning. It's a two horse race and they always bet on both

No I am saying Rothschilds engineered the entire thing, including making sure the Democrats thought Trump was the Trojan Horse to destroy the Republicans.

[tabnloz]

I don't believe fear of a God is necessary. Rationality will work if men stop being ideological sponges.

We return once more to our core disagreement.
I disagree with you entirely on this issue.

Evil is often Rational
https://www.prageru.com/courses/religionphilosophy/evil-rational

Evil is not rational, when your goal is to maintain your culture. Anything which correctly maintains your culture is by definition not evil.

You think Evil is arbitrary because you have no goal to measure good vs. evil with. Thus you need some nebulous nonsense which has a muddled goal and outcome, e.g. the muddled outcome of how you have noted that the Jews have alienated many societies by doing parasitism because their religion says they can do usury to non-Jews.

Hitler's social justice most definitely was evil and did not maintain the society and positive culture of the white man.

For example, one evil in a correctly functioning white culture would be to fornicate with the opposite gender who is a member of the same culture and not take care of raising the offspring. That doesn't require a fear of God. It is obvious that the culture will be destroyed otherwise.

Fornicating with the same gender would obviously also destroy the culture of the primary point being productive and raising productive males (and women productive at bearing and raising children). I mean raising the women is just as important, but they are raised for different roles, both of which are productive and important.

Thus drunkenness is thus rationally evil. Not maintaining your physical exercise is rationally evil. Not having self-discipline and understanding the natural purposes of one's urges is thus rationally evil.

A culture of such men should not have a primary goal of competing against each other (except as a sport or friendly motivation) but rather to note they are competing against all the inferior external cultures which want to destroy the superior culture. This should be a culture of cooperation and harmony. Raising high IQ males correctly should make this more plausible. (We can't compare to the high IQ men we have today, because so many of them have been raised by parents who had no clue about the realities of nature and the culture they need to cultivate)

Conquest should be for cultural gains, i.e. incorporating the best genetics from external cultures. This can even be an entirely decentralized form of conquest, i.e. each young male off on his own grabbing some female(s) who are pliant (also serves as an outlet/goal for their natural hormonal surge at the young age).

I won't get any where towards that goal with bearded orthodox Jews, because they have their rationality clouded by all these pagan religious customs and rituals. How can one be rational if they still believe the bark on the tree is Holy and symbolism crap. Jews are trying to do conquest via usury form of parasitism. I think partaking of females is a more insidious form of parasitism.

Tribes did this but they didn't scale because they didn't educate their males and set them free to integrate into the knowledge of the world.

A lot of this makes sense during times of scarce population, like The Age of the Goddess, but not now. There was a time where humanity was rebuilding and reproduction was for survival of the species (note the handed-down lessons of 'be fruitful and multiply', 're-plenish the earth'). In light of your argument, this was a time where women were worshipped, roles were defined, but there was minimal violence - the violence came as the populations expanded and weather turned cold, forcing them to move in search of optimum conditions / resources. This was real climate change. Conquests were a matter of survival, not cultural gain.

Doesn't what you are saying sound more like Eugenics?

We keep looking at the world and thinking the current spate of shit is purely religious / cultural or that we are losing our culture. This is inevitable to some degree as the population grows and resources become more sought after. Probably why some are pushing for space colonization. The violence-as-religious war is only true for one side (the one rooted in a radical interpretation of Islam). The other side is doing shit for resources and geopolitical strategy. Eventually, if our population doesn't get hit by a pandemic, it will be for food and water.

[iamnotback]

A lot of this makes sense during times of scarce population

It always makes sense when you are competing for who has the most votes and the immigrants are multiplying like rabbits.

If we don't reproduce well above replacement rates, our culture dies. Sorry these are damned facts.

This is inevitable to some degree as the population grows and resources become more sought after.

Your Malthusian delusion is unwarranted. Resources are inexorably getting cheaper. Iron used to be a precious metal. Did you not see the chart that I quoted from the Economist magazine in my seminal essay several years ago.

You will probably need a week or two of studying the thread slowly.

I will be the first to admit I needed a week or two to fully absorb the following works of AnonyMint.

The Rise of Knowledge

[iamnotback]

Armstrong has updated his gold forecast in his private blog. Anyone care to tell what he says so we can all substantiate his being correct? Or is it more of the same quatrain type speech we are all used to?

I haven't inquired yet (been too ill to do much of anything) with my source who subscribes to Armstrong. Also I had stated last time, that I wouldn't again reveal private subscriber info during the week it is intended to predict. I might reveal it after the fact, since this does not harm Armstrong subscribers.

Interesting to me is that gold seems to move up whenever there appears to be the case that Trump is destabilizing the world order in a way that might lead to war. Or any pause in the stronger dollar move.

Yet then the reality is this strong USA stance drives the dollar up, so gold has to move back down.

I think we are likely to get a strong dollar before we get any war and believe any war going hot with the major players will be due to economic devastation of the coming strong dollar vortex. So I still see gold down as the general direction until (late or after) 2018, in spite of deadcat bounces. Will be interested to read Armstrong's perspective.

Armstrong (and I concurred) has always said gold could go as high as $5000 (not higher!) after this strong dollar interlude. Again I have my doubts about whether you will be able to cash in your physical gold at that price.

I haven't read MA's recent private reports, but this indicates to me he is saying failed to close above $1221, which remained his bearish reversal from 2 weeks ago:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/precious-metals/gold/gold-closed-1220-80/

You MA skeptics are one day going to learn to respect Socrates.

[tabnloz]

A lot of this makes sense during times of scarce population

It always makes sense when you are competing for who has the most votes and the immigrants are multiplying like rabbits.

If we don't reproduce well above replacement rates, our culture dies. Sorry these are damned facts.

This is inevitable to some degree as the population grows and resources become more sought after.

Your Malthusian delusion is unwarranted. Resources are inexorably getting cheaper. Iron used to be a precious metal. Did you not see the chart that I quoted from the Economist magazine in my seminal essay several years ago.

You will probably need a week or two of studying the thread slowly.

I will be the first to admit I needed a week or two to fully absorb the following works of AnonyMint.

The Rise of Knowledge

I can accept that resources are getting cheaper from the chart & increasing population doesn't necessarily lead to scarcity, my point was that a) controlling them becomes more sought after (eg, Western wars in ME, South China Sea, Russian gas to Europe) and b) as population grows people look to move where life is "better" (natives believe their culture is being diluted - which I think is inevitable). Sometimes b) comes as a result of a).

If coincube needs a few weeks, I will probably need a few years.

[iamnotback]

Armstrong posted this satire today:

Note I am probably greater than 1/32 Cherokee, because my grandmother had browner skin and was only 5'2". And I think she said her grandmother (or great-grandmother) was pure Cherokee. Also they sent my sister and I to arts & crafts workshops for native Americans to learn some of their heritage such as sewing leather and decorating it with beads (yet the beads were ceramic and I imagine the natives used wood).

Note Elizabeth Warren may have a small fraction of native American blood. So many Americans do.

I did not try to use my native American minority status to get admitted to UC Berkeley Engineering (and now I am damn glad they declined me). I was accepted at UC Santa Barbara (and even had a visit with the Dean of Engineering and they welcomed me), but decided to return to my father's alma mater LSU instead (tried to win the love of my father I guess but not even a 4.0 GPA could move that mountain).

[OROBTC]

...

Bwa ha ha!!  Nailed it with the pictures of our so-called leaders.  I don't which of those nine pictures is the best (funniest), so many good candidates there...

Re Native American blood, we were trying to find out if family lore was true re Indian blood from my mom's side (if so, we would have very little, less than 1/64th for sure).

* * *

Re the decline of the West, ZH had a nice piece on what has been going on in QUEBEC earlier today.  Normally I wouldn't give two cents about such a thing, but for the fact that my wife and I spent a month in Montreal a few years ago.  The decline of Catholicism there, and now Trudeau the Younger wants more Muslims et cochonerie:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-02-05/quebec-crisis-west

[OROBTC]

...

I have never seen Armstrong discuss platinum (he might have, I have just not seen it).

The past couple of years have been something of an anomaly re the Price Ratio of Platinum to Gold (Pt is some 22% cheaper than Au now, "normally" it sells at a premium).  Fairly famous hard-ass geologist Mickey Fulp writes an interesting piece on this:

http://www.goldgeologist.com/mercenary_musings/musing-170206-The-46-Year-Record-of-Platinum-Gold-Ratios.pdf

Platinum, a speculation of interest?

[r0ach]

If we don't reproduce well above replacement rates, our culture dies. Sorry these are damned facts.

This is nonsense IMO.  You don't defeat r-selection populations by becoming an r-selection population yourself.  Earth is generally overpopulated in terms of sustainability and k-selection populations are naturally going to taper down to compensate.  They will reproduce more when there is actually an abundance of space, resources, and reason to.  It is not a permanent death spiral.  K-individuals are not going to have 4 kids while living inside a tiny apartment somewhere with no means to support them.

It seems obvious K-selection populations never could have existed in the past without using strategies of going to war against or containing r-selection populations/isolating themselves against them.  That is what will happen in the future as well.  The "soft-warfare" against r-selection populations started long ago with innocuous tactics such as "white flight", but will eventually ramp up into full scale warfare as certain groups act as white people stalkers - following whites around and demanding free welfare or violence if they don't give in to subsidize their dysfunctional r-lifestyle.

http://www.goldgeologist.com/mercenary_musings/musing-170206-The-46-Year-Record-of-Platinum-Gold-Ratios.pdf

Platinum, a speculation of interest?

Gotta love this quote:

"From a compendium of sources, the average crustal abundance of both metals is around 4 ppb. Based
solely on this fact, platinum and gold should trade at about the same price."

Yet going by this logic, silver is coming out of the ground at only a 9:1 ratio to gold, so silver would be vastly more undervalued using his logic and there would be no reason to talk about platinum at all.  

[sidhujag]

Anonymint, do you think Lightening networks with wallet-to-wallet channel selection offers a decentralized payment layer on top of bitcoin sufficient for its the need for which it is implemented?

[iamnotback]

You don't defeat r-selection populations by becoming an r-selection population yourself.

I didn't propose R-selection.

Earth is generally overpopulated in terms of sustainability

Malthusian nonsense.

[iamnotback]

Anonymint, do you think Lightening networks with wallet-to-wallet channel selection offers a decentralized payment layer on top of bitcoin sufficient for its the need for which it is implemented?

I haven't looked into the bolded term. Is that a new proposal?

Last time I evaluated LN, my analysis was:

https://gist.github.com/shelby3/c786018a8bb2d8d837abce3a4cf4e799#542-lightning-networks

Note guys I am only on the 19th day of the intensive 8-week, 4-drug TB treatment (to be followed by 18 weeks of 2-drug regimen), so my energy remains very low and I am not actively working much:

https://github.com/keean/zenscript/issues/30#issuecomment-278074629

My liver has improved and my eating and digestion appears to be improving but not yet totally normalized. My energy level is very low. Difficult to think intensely. Want to sleep always.

[sidhujag]

Anonymint, do you think Lightening networks with wallet-to-wallet channel selection offers a decentralized payment layer on top of bitcoin sufficient for its the need for which it is implemented?

I haven't looked into the bolded term. Is that a new proposal?

Last time I evaluated LN, my analysis was:

https://gist.github.com/shelby3/c786018a8bb2d8d837abce3a4cf4e799#542-lightning-networks

Note guys I am only on the 19th day of the intensive 8-week, 4-drug TB treatment (to be followed by 18 weeks of 2-drug regimen), so my energy remains very low and I am not actively working much:

https://github.com/keean/zenscript/issues/30#issuecomment-278074629

My liver has improved and my eating and digestion appears to be improving but not yet totally normalized. My energy level is very low. Difficult to think intensely. Want to sleep always.

Yes they are mulling over it however as far as I can see I can't determine how channels would be routed through wallets when most wallets are offline including mobile phones which run power save and apps are idle (not processing) when not in use? A wallet-to-wallet would be ideal if people's wallet APIs were accessible deterministically but we know that's not the case... so not 100% on how that proposal is structured. If they figure it out it would make LN usable and a viable payment layer ontop of bitcoin to solve roach's issue with bitcoin not relying on being a store of value only.

[iamnotback]

http://www.chinausfocus.com/foreign-policy/the-story-of-the-us-regime-change-plan-in-the-philippines

[iamnotback]

Euro crisis probably begins in April or May:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/politics/le-pen-in-first-place-so-far/

The $1220.80 close for Gold last week was a Weekly Bearish Reversal, but we had a mild Monthly Bullish reversal at the end of the year.

So the greater probability is that Gold is doing one more deadcat bounce before a further decline after April to below $1050. If we see silver/gold ratio move below 60 and gold move higher than $1306, then we may have a serious bullish reversal, but that is not likely.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/precious-metals/gold/silver-the-key-to-a-sustainable-rally-in-gold/

[tabnloz]

Bitcoin back up.

Note how the Chinese FX intervention in January (large strengthening) halted the rise temporarily? Can't keep it up forever (trilemma) and now the price is going back up. We could the mother of all spikes if the PBoC resorts to a one time big devaluation. Fundamentals, politics, currency wars all colliding.

"The PBOC has been expending an unprecedented amount of resources in the form of it's FX reserves in an attempt to support the Renminbi (this article assumes you've read "The Macro Truth About The Bitcoin" article, if you haven't its a prerequisite). The initial deployment of this capital to force CNY onshore caused violent capital repatriation. The result was rapid drop in BTC, as those who used CNY to purchase it were put in a predicament where CNY was too expensive to hold offshore"

Quote from http://boombustblog.com/blog/item/9257-revisiting-the-breakdown-of-the-macro-drivers-behind-bitcoin-s-price

[tabnloz]

I like being able to take a few different macro views and try and get an overall picture. From both sides of the bitcoin fence: anti (MA, Rickards), pro (Raoul Pal, Reggie M) and non declared (Maudlin)

Other point to add to the mix that supports MA's thesis of potential upswing in US stocks - the new proposed Border Adjustment Tax (BAT) laws from the Trump Admin. Includes things like 100% write off in first year for business investment. Problem may be that globally this upheaval will be very violent economically considering the precarious situations may countries are in.

[iamnotback]

Please note the edit in red:

The $1220.80 close for Gold last week was a Weekly Bearish Reversal, but we had a mild Monthly Bullish reversal at the end of the year.

Comments else where:

Re: Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski sides with Democrats in the Senate voting

Never trust women with roles of highly strategic responsibility.

They love drama and vote their emotions and perspective as nurturers and consensus builders (or with their destructive hindbrain).

My current stance is not focused on repealing women's suffrage at the level of collective governance, because I view collective governance as just another enslavement coping mechanism (of which I view religion as another) for managing the stables/corrals of weak sheepeople.

My message is for the strong men who actually run or could run the world, if they would assert their superior cultural evolutionary strategy. The powerful have the "votes" that matter, because economics is reality and democracy is an illusion of control (an actually an enslavement mechanism) for weak sheepeople to circle-jerk themselves with.

JAD wishes to install a dictator Trump to manage the weak sheepeople, but this creates the precedent (and a power vacuum) for the devolution into a totalitarian regime. So it is not a solution. Rothschilds is cleverly playing the various modes of the enslavement paradigms to divide-and-conquer. We strong men should be aware and smarter.

[iamnotback]

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/02/steve-bannon-books-reading-list-214745