Martin Armstrong Discussion

[sidhujag]

We need to destroy and replace StackExchange by putting the functionality on a decentralized blockchain. This will be one of the apps I'd like to see created for the OpenShare blockchain technology I am now developing.

Upvote me at StackExchange please:

Re: 22 year old inherited 30k from 529 payout; wondering best way to invest

Invest 50% in the DOW index and sell ALL when it hits 40,000 in couple of years.

Invest the rest in Bitcoin and sell half when it exceeds $2000 - $2500 within next year or so.

The big question is what to buy when you sell those because we are headed into an epic global economic disaster that will have the governments confiscating most assets. Perhaps gold.

Start reading ArmstrongEconomics.com blog if you want to know what is really going on. We have an extensive discussion on that. I am @iamnotback there.

Disclaimer: these are my unprofessional ideas. Do not hold me responsible for your investment decisions. I am supposed to tell you to consult with a professional adviser, even though I think they will lose all your money in the coming economic collapse.

StackExchange deleted my answer above and they added the following protection to the answer:

protected by Ganesh Sittampalam♦ 14 hours ago

Thank you for your interest in this question. Because it has attracted low-quality or spam answers that had to be removed, posting an answer now requires 10 reputation on this site (the association bonus does not count).

That foolish Hitler moderator also deleted my comments. I had put the following comment below my answer after someone had downvoted it:

You'll see an enormous number of downvotes from ignorant fools who will lose all their wealth over the next few years, because they think my ideas are not sound nor conservative enough. Lol. Mark my word. Come back to my post in a few years.

I also had comments on each of the other answers, such as on the most popular answer I wrote that putting a large amount of money in a bank account long-term was one of the stupidest things one could do because the government will be coming after all assets and bail-ins are very likely especially in the EU. On the answer about maxing out retirement plan contributions, I had commented saying that the governments would nationalize the retirement plan assets and that one should be taking early withdrawals asap. On the answer about how investment advisers follow a conservative portfolio to minimize downside risk, I said the coming crash of 35+ year sovereign bond bubble would cause one to lose all their assets by being conservative.

We need to destroy and replace StackExchange...

Btw, that links to the Meta discussion area of StackExchange, but it appears they going to censor what I wrote there also:

How is StackExchange's censorship going to compete again decentralization?

StackExchange MUST and WILL die.

Observing them downvote without any discussion, I added the following comment to the bottom of the question.

Where the hell can we discuss something with you guys without incurring censorship if not in meta? So you're going to downvote and delete this also! Shoot yourselves in the foot. I am coming after you and I will destroy your centralized paradigm. We can still have moderators in a decentralized paradigm, but everyone can individually and freely choose which moderators they ignore.

And so that comment appeared to draw them into a little bit of ego chest thumping. Let the ass kicking begin by launching the actual decentralized paradigm.

I hear Stack Overflow can be rebuilt in a weekend, and we run the rest of the of the network off the same code, so I'm pretty scared. What's your proposed solution, someone who thinks we MUST and WILL die?

@AdamLear Multiple copies of a centralized paradigm is not the same economy-of-scale as a decentralized blockchain over which everyone can interopt and apply their own individualized rules for which moderation changesets to ignore, i.e. disjoint stores of data is not an optimal and winning solution to censorship. The way to mitigate the efficacy of politics is by empowering individual choice. This is why the Internet (as a complete database) is killing the corrupt mass media conglomerates. StackExchange is one of the next on the hitlist. You and your upvoters have some learning to do.

Calling moderators (or anybody btw) "foolish Hitler" in a rant is not an optimal and winning basis for a discussion.

@ModusTollens cry in your spilled milk. Your paradigm is going to die. All your downvotes are powerless.

As I told you all, I am not doing this just for money! It is a competition about ideas and what will make a better Internet.

A decentralized stack.exchange is really easy all you need is ipfs and some merkle tree.anchoring to.chain.. its like dead.simple

[iamnotback]

A decentralized stack.exchange is really easy all you need is ipfs and some merkle tree.anchoring to.chain.. its like dead.simple

Incorrect.

IPFS relies on Bitcoin for unalterable hashes of the data, i.e. there must be a blockchain to record the ordering of first claims to the hash of the data. And we all know that Bitcoin is not decentralized and is doomed.

The blockchain design is the key component. IPFS is just one of many protocols that will be built on top of my OpenShare blockchain. You've got to have the decentralized consensus for the blockchain fixed or nothing else is decentralized which relies on it. And no one has published a solution yet. I claim one though unpublished.

The other egregious flaw with IPFS is it provides no economic model for hosting the data. That is what my OpenShare also proposes to solve with the SHARE token and instant unlimited scaling microtransactions. These are hard technical problems that no one has solved decentralized. Lightning Networks for Bitcoin is not a design that maintains decentralization (and it has other problems I've enumerated else where).

[iamnotback]

Btw, this caused them to not just delete the question, but go beyond their usual deletion policy and entirely strip it from even my own view as the creator of the question:

This 45 years old Millennial gladly puts her name on her 'censorship'.

@ModusTollens German hacker females in the mold of Hilter Merkel and her subjugation of the PIIGS to German mercantilism via Euro straightjacket and rapefugees to add icing to the paddling. Reading the patriarchy damned facts in the Dark Enlightenment thread will clue you in on there is nearly nothing you and I would agree on, but you might learn something. Enjoy the crash & burn (SE, the EU, feminism, and everything you endear). P.S. I have partial German ancestry.

No wonder SE is headed into the toilet. Along with the entire Western morass. Get out while you still can.

Edit: I refreshed the page and I can still view the deleted question. I see it was deleted by the following:

deleted by rene, Shadow Wizard, yannis

[sidhujag]

A decentralized stack.exchange is really easy all you need is ipfs and some merkle tree.anchoring to.chain.. its like dead.simple

Incorrect.

IPFS relies on Bitcoin for unalterable hashes of the data, i.e. there must be a blockchain to record the ordering of first claims to the hash of the data. And we all know that Bitcoin is not decentralized and is doomed.

The blockchain design is the key component. IPFS is just one of many protocols that will be built on top of my OpenShare blockchain. You've got to have the decentralized consensus for the blockchain fixed or nothing else is decentralized which relies on it. And no one has published a solution yet. I claim one though unpublished.

The other egregious flaw with IPFS is it provides no economic model for hosting the data. That is what my OpenShare also proposes to solve with the SHARE token and instant unlimited scaling microtransactions. These are hard technical problems that no one has solved decentralized. Lightning Networks for Bitcoin is not a design that maintains decentralization (and it has other problems I've enumerated else where).

Ipfs certainly doesnt rely on any blockchain. Filecoin and something like hipfish.io help with seeding. Bitcoin can be used for immutable data through merkle root hashing. But bitcoin doesnt have to be used it can be any secure chain. Id be happy to further discuss such a design via pm.. its what im currently thinking about anyway.

I personally dont think its feasible and scalable to build the solution through expecting miners to create the merkle tree and root it because there is lack of incentive for the miner to do such a thing.. unless you know of a way to pay to miner through some offchain commitment that can be claimed by showing amount of work done and having miner claim a reward afterwards.. again probably out of scope for dicussing here

[iamnotback]

Ipfs certainly doesnt rely on any blockchain. Filecoin and something like hipfish.io help with seeding. Bitcoin can be used for immutable data through merkle root hashing. But bitcoin doesnt have to be used it can be any secure chain. Id be happy to further discuss such a design via pm.. its what im currently thinking about anyway.

You'll need a blockchain for any sort of ordered application such as SE, otherwise you will have only chaos.

If you are interested in building apps for the OpenShare project which I am spearheading (but still in a very nascent stage of pre-development) or otherwise being involved in the open source project, there will be Slack of some sort once I ("we") reach that stage. I just not quite prepared yet to unleash the open source avalanche, because I am head-in-the-sand on preliminary work (and 3 more doses away from cutting my daily doses of antibiotics in half, hoping I'll have even more energy soon).

There are many technical issues, so I'd rather not even respond to your Merkle tree point right now. Let's discuss in an appropriate technical setting.

[sidhujag]

Ipfs certainly doesnt rely on any blockchain. Filecoin and something like hipfish.io help with seeding. Bitcoin can be used for immutable data through merkle root hashing. But bitcoin doesnt have to be used it can be any secure chain. Id be happy to further discuss such a design via pm.. its what im currently thinking about anyway.

You'll need a blockchain for any sort of ordered application such as SE, otherwise you will have only chaos.

If you are interested in building apps for the OpenShare project which I am spearheading (but still in a very nascent stage of pre-development) or otherwise being involved in the open source project, there will be Slack of some sort once I ("we") reach that stage. I just not quite prepared yet to unleash the open source avalanche, because I am head-in-the-sand on preliminary work (and 3 more doses away from cutting my daily doses of antibiotics in half, hoping I'll have even more energy soon).

There are many technical issues, so I'd rather not even respond to your Merkle tree point right now. Let's discuss in an appropriate technical setting.

You got.mail

[r0ach]

Invest 50% in the DOW index and sell ALL when it hits 40,000 in couple of years.

Invest the rest in Bitcoin and sell half when it exceeds $2000 - $2500 within next year or so.

I'll take the exact opposite of that trade.  The main macro level bet someone should be making is shorting the US debt.  Buying stocks is definitely not that trade.  Yea, stocks will benefit from inflation if they monetize the debt from no buyers in the bond market, but it's far more bullish for metals, especially considering the starting point of both assets.  Stocks starting from stupidly high prices and metals in an inverse bubble.  Metals should win any inflation trade, definitely when they also hedge against govt going out of control while stocks don't.

As for bitcoin, while everyone was completely full of shit saying bitcoin was going to skyrocket and metals were going to drop, I sold all bitcoin at $1168 to hold cash on the sidelines and wait for the drop:

This market is trading like the DOW right now, artificially levitated.

Price has absolutely no short term upside at all

I'm out again at $1168 (no idea why the price is that high right now) and will let this market marinate.

Bought more silver at $16.90 too before the fed rate hike increased the price because I knew the bottom is already in on metals without a massive deflationary event.

This is the only outcome from here concerning US debt:

If you ever thought the debt would not be defaulted on or alternatively devalued by hyperinflation, this mike maloney chart tells you all you need to know about that:  

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x7q-73dpBKo

Alternatively, they can do something like revalue gold at $20,000-$50,000 an ounce, but those are basically the only 3 options.  Places like china + india + russia now own such large amounts of gold they have no incentive to force a gold only standard on people because it would make india too powerful, so they don't really have any reason to try and stop silver from rising too.  The profits are almost mindblowingly unbelievable, but I think you will eventually see something like gold $20,000 silver $600.

[sidhujag]

Invest 50% in the DOW index and sell ALL when it hits 40,000 in couple of years.

Invest the rest in Bitcoin and sell half when it exceeds $2000 - $2500 within next year or so.

I'll take the exact opposite of that trade.  The main macro level bet someone should be making is shorting the US debt.  Buying stocks is definitely not that trade.  Yea, stocks will benefit from inflation if they monetize the debt from no buyers in the bond market, but it's far more bullish for metals, especially considering the starting point of both assets.  Stocks starting from stupidly high prices and metals in an inverse bubble.  Metals should win any inflation trade, definitely when they also hedge against govt going out of control while stocks don't.

As for bitcoin, while everyone was completely full of shit saying bitcoin was going to skyrocket and metals were going to drop, I sold all bitcoin at $1168 to hold cash on the sidelines and wait for the drop:

This market is trading like the DOW right now, artificially levitated.

Price has absolutely no short term upside at all

I'm out again at $1168 (no idea why the price is that high right now) and will let this market marinate.

Bought more silver at $16.90 too before the fed rate hike increased the price because I knew the bottom is already in on metals without a massive deflationary event.

This is the only outcome from here concerning US debt:

If you ever thought the debt would not be defaulted on or alternatively devalued by hyperinflation, this mike maloney chart tells you all you need to know about that:  

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x7q-73dpBKo

Alternatively, they can do something like revalue gold at $20,000-$50,000 an ounce, but those are basically the only 3 options.  Places like china + india + russia now own such large amounts of gold they have no incentive to force a gold only standard on people because it would make india too powerful, so they don't really have any reason to try and stop silver from rising too.  The profits are almost mindblowingly unbelievable, but I think you will eventually see something like gold $20,000 silver $600.

Shorting us debt means buying us stocks currently.. if your the pig in the middle you would say what you just said..starting point of.bitcoin was when gold was already above $1000 so id say gold so.far is losing this race

[r0ach]

Shorting us debt means buying us stocks currently..

That was the most illogical thing I've ever read.  A bond market meltdown and sovereign debt crisis that threatens the currency itself is not....bullish on stocks.  Just about the only thing it is explicitly bullish for is metals.  I don't really care about tertiary effects of some fund that has more money than it knows what to do with puts money in stocks because it doesn't know what else to do.  All I care about is the trade that maximizes profit and stocks are not going to be it.  Hell, stocks are far more likely to be losing than gaining anything.

[iamnotback]

Math matters.

[iamnotback]

That was the most illogical thing I've ever read.  A bond market meltdown and sovereign debt crisis that threatens the currency itself is not....bullish on stocks.

It is bullish the USD and USA stocks short-term to 2018 or so. Then pivot back towards Asia after the 2020 bottom in Asia (West will continue to unravel and will not bottom). Use private assets to cross the chasm from 2019 to 2024 wherein there will be a monetary reset (but which private assets? gold or some new cryptocurrency actually decentralized for the masses?). But first the last safe haven stampede into the USD.

[iamnotback]

@r0ach did you ever figure out who controls Ethereum? Please reply over there where I mentioned you.

Yeah I know you think the Jews are behind it all, but more specifically which faction under them overlords.

[sidhujag]

Shorting us debt means buying us stocks currently..

That was the most illogical thing I've ever read.  A bond market meltdown and sovereign debt crisis that threatens the currency itself is not....bullish on stocks.  Just about the only thing it is explicitly bullish for is metals.  I don't really care about tertiary effects of some fund that has more money than it knows what to do with puts money in stocks because it doesn't know what else to do.  All I care about is the trade that maximizes profit and stocks are not going to be it.  Hell, stocks are far more likely to be losing than gaining anything.

Stock market acting as a liquidity source and probably.the fact that big fish will gladly buy lower.and sell higher.. only time i can see gold going up which is a very minute scenario is if us defaults and throws in the flag.. during our lifetime.highly unlikely

[criptix]

How low do guys think btc will go? I though it was oversold and going up but now it looks rather like a dead cat.

[iamnotback]

Math matters.

How low do guys think btc will go? I though it was oversold and going up but now it looks rather like a dead cat.

Bitcoin Unlimited is doomed now that I've shown it is based on faulty math. This is fundamental and the entire concept of unlimited block size is flawed. Once the market digests my revelation, there will be dumping of mining nodes for Bitcoin Unlimited. Roger Ver you really need to get better peer review of the projects you support. You are making so many YUGE technical errors and promulgating incorrect technical information. Shame on you.

[r0ach]

@r0ach did you ever figure out who controls Ethereum?

Ethereum is mostly just R3 subsidiaries who don't like bitcoin because they didn't get in on the ground floor and used Vitalik as a useful idiot front man while buying up the whole premine then using that premine as leverage collateral on Bologniex.  This is the moment cryptocurrency became a complete cesspit that should be avoided by the public entirely because they aren't even using real money to pump this thing.  They have a bunch of illiquid assets they can't even dump for profit because...they are the entire market themselves...so they leverage those illiquid assets to try and attract momentum traders and then dump on them.  Ethereum is a giant rat trap.

[r0ach]

How low do guys think btc will go? I though it was oversold and going up but now it looks rather like a dead cat.

This was my battle plan for bitcoin and the market did pretty much exactly what I expected it to do:

This declining head and shoulders will probably make it dump again then bounce to $1050 or something:



I'm out again at $1168 (no idea why the price is that high right now) and will let this market marinate.

But after the price went to $1050 this was my view:

I expected the price to do this already without factoring a BU hardfork in at all.  So right now I feel like the market has not priced in any hardfork.  Meaning if no fork occurs, I guess it can hold this position, but if one does happen, it would likely dump:

[iamnotback]

But after the price went to $1050 this was my view:

I expected the price to do this already without factoring a BU hardfork in at all.  So right now I feel like the market has not priced in any hardfork.  Meaning if no fork occurs, I guess it can hold this position, but if one does happen, it would likely dump:

I diversified into ETH.

I also agree with you on this:

@Ayers agreed there is new greater fool BTC incoming. The key distinction is that allegedly there is only one coordinated whale/cartel in control (instead of multiple uncoordinated, competing whales) who will run away and let it crash to ~1% of its price in order to conserve their BTC stash in a stampede spiral event (which hasn't happened yet because there is sufficient supply of new fools incoming and the base of the pyramid of hodlers who could stampede is always being diluted relative to the cartel's percent of the money supply by the compounding asymmetrical masternode ROI scheme). Unlike in an aggregate market wherein bagholders could at least get out with say only -80% loss or something reasonable.

It is quite an elaborate scheme. You have to wrap your mind around it holistically. The masternodes are the cartel (technically a masternode isn't a hashrate miner, but because the masternodes are subsidized asymmetrically they can also be the miners then selfish mine and gain more asymmetric rewards).

Please read my post immediately before yours where I replied to @dinofelis's latest post.

Note ETH may be similarly structured but without the masternodes (unless someone has an unreleased more efficient implementation of the ETH PoW algorithm, which I saw someone allege) and with better ecosystem marketing and hype than Dash:

@r0ach did you ever figure out who controls Ethereum?

Ethereum is mostly just R3 subsidiaries who don't like bitcoin because they didn't get in on the ground floor and used Vitalik as a useful idiot front man while buying up the whole premine then using that premine as leverage collateral on Bologniex.  This is the moment cryptocurrency became a complete cesspit that should be avoided by the public entirely because they aren't even using real money to pump this thing.  They have a bunch of illiquid assets they can't even dump for profit because...they are the entire market themselves...so they leverage those illiquid assets to try and attract momentum traders and then dump on them.  Ethereum is a giant rat trap.

[OROBTC]

...

Real Estate has traditionally been a great investment in the USA (bearing in mind "location, location, location").  But there are problems with real estate: it is illiquid (hard to sell fast), and is easily taxed:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/taxes/taxing-property-going-crazy/

I agree with Armstrong, as governments get ever more aggressive in taxing their already burdened citizens, immobile property is going to be a big target.

[r0ach]

I agree with Armstrong, as governments get ever more aggressive in taxing their already burdened citizens, immobile property is going to be a big target.

Which is why I'm buying a 40' catamaran or monohull sailboat.