Martin Armstrong Discussion

[sidhujag]

Everything associated with the Industrial Age will die, including government, fiat money, socialism, strip malls, precious metals, etc..

The world looks very different on the other side.

Stay in crypto.

Wouldn't be so sure of that!:

Roger is teaching economics 101 out of his ass. If you're interested:
https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/61oycs/substitute_goods/

He's kind of right there.  I always thought if bitcoin doesn't scale and fees go too high transactions would bleed into an altcoin like litecoin.  Then once litecoin fees go to high they would bleed into something else.  At this point cryptocurrency would either be a slow march to the graveyard with continuous fracturing of the ecosystem, or you would end up with regional currencies developing to avoid the overhead of outside ecosystems.  

It's possible the common link between each regional currency would be bitcoin, but it's also possible it would be some fiat note or gold/silver/oil whatever instead.  The common link is what other nations would accept in international trade settlement.  They currently accept useless things like tbills, but most people seem to be pushing towards settling international trade in gold.  If you were the king of a country and selling oil to someone else, would you rather have gold or bitcoin?...

I'd probably want something more than imaginary electrons as payment if I was dumping my country's natural resources on the market.  Bitcoin is similar to fiat paper promises in that regard - an IOU to receive goods or services from someone else at a later date.  It requires another party to honor that contract, which is not legally binding nor even a gentlemen's agreement - just an assumption some random guy is going to give you stuff for it some day.  It takes an actual physical commodity based currency that you can hold in your hand and defend with an AR15 to eleminate that counter party risk.  

Someone might not agree to be your slave just because you have a bag of gold, but at least you don't end up with a bag of nothing out of the deal.

There are no more kings of countries if you didn't notice. Ideal money will keep on rolling, gold has been rolled on already.

Theres no better example of a failed IOU attempt than the economies of the past that used precious metals. That ship has sailed, some crypto will be the one to take over, better to have your money here than there imo. Precious metals will fall back to the price representing industrial demand (way below)

[1714562685]

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[1714562685]

1714562685

[OROBTC]

...

Eastern and Central Europe figure "bigly" today at Armstrong's blog.

Macedonia doesn't want Soros-style government.  Macedonia is a complicated place:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/europes-current-economy/macedonia-reject-soros-the-eu-socialism/

* * *

Some NATO troops (from the USA, UK and Romania) just moved to NE Poland:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/russia/nato-troops-moved-from-germany-to-poland-on-weekend/

* * *

Belarus (not heard from often) has their own problems, with Russia, with tax demonstrations, etc.:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/civil-unrest/tax-revolt-in-belarus-turning-to-mass-arrests/

[iamnotback]

Wouldn't be so sure of that!:

Roger is teaching economics 101 out of his ass. If you're interested:
https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/61oycs/substitute_goods/

He's kind of right there.  I always thought if bitcoin doesn't scale and fees go too high transactions would bleed into an altcoin like litecoin.  Then once litecoin fees go to high they would bleed into something else.  At this point cryptocurrency would either be a slow march to the graveyard with continuous fracturing of the ecosystem, or you would end up with regional currencies developing to avoid the overhead of outside ecosystems.  

It's possible the common link between each regional currency would be bitcoin, but it's also possible it would be some fiat note or gold/silver/oil whatever instead.  The common link is what other nations would accept in international trade settlement.  They currently accept useless things like tbills, but most people seem to be pushing towards settling international trade in gold.  If you were the king of a country and selling oil to someone else, would you rather have gold or bitcoin?...

I'd probably want something more than imaginary electrons as payment if I was dumping my country's natural resources on the market.  Bitcoin is similar to fiat paper promises in that regard - an IOU to receive goods or services from someone else at a later date.  It requires another party to honor that contract, which is not legally binding nor even a gentlemen's agreement - just an assumption some random guy is going to give you stuff for it some day.  It takes an actual physical commodity based currency that you can hold in your hand and defend with an AR15 to eleminate that counter party risk.  

Someone might not agree to be your slave just because you have a bag of gold, but at least you don't end up with a bag of nothing out of the deal.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1837136.msg18358389#msg18358389

[r0ach]

Ideal money will keep on rolling, gold has been rolled on already.

Theres no better example of a failed IOU attempt than the economies of the past that used precious metals. That ship has sailed, some crypto will be the one to take over, better to have your money here than there imo. Precious metals will fall back to the price representing industrial demand (way below)

LOL, you're flat out lying to yourself.  Bitcoin does not solve ANY counter party risk problems - it has FAR WORSE counter party risk than metals do.  If you believe the "ship has sailed" on metals, then you should probably dump your bitcoin now since it's fundamentally worse than metals in ALL ASPECTS that metals are valued for from counter party risk, to fungibility, durability, store of value, limited supply (rough consensus attack), etc.  

All forms of cryptocurrency are nothing but Rube Goldberg machines that attempt to obfuscate their failures by adding mass complexity to smokescreen what's really going on.  The only way you're getting a non-fraudulent monetary system on this planet is by using metals in native coin form (not IOUs for metals).  Due to severe technical burden shoveled upon users (like old people who will never understand things like RBF), lack of ability to scale, and need to maintain wealth in a 3rd party chain of custody for things like wills, bitcoin is even more likely to end up as banker IOUs than metals are.  This is assuming bitcoin even worked and does what it claims in the first place, but it doesn't.

[iamnotback]

Re: Is Ethereum going to take over bitcoin in the upcoming months?

Bitcoin has utility, eth just barely has one or two uses.

What good is that utility (e.g. transferring value) if I can't use it because the fees go to $100 per transaction?

You don't think most of the places that accept crypto now will not accept ETH when nobody can use Buttcoin any more.

The current standoff means fees will just keep increasing.

This war isn't over yet.

$100.00 fee to transfer how much btc? with today's average transfer fees, it would cost $100.00 to transfer $17,203.00 worth of BTC. In my opinion that's more than reasonable.

It will increase significantly if the block size is not increased and/or some off chain solution isn't able to supplant on chain demand growth.

Ethereum is the scam coin that the banksters control.

Good luck laying down with the devil's dogs.

Sorry to be the one to bust your little fantasy, but ditto for Bitcoin.

[r0ach]

What good is that utility (e.g. transferring value) if I can't use it because the fees go to $100 per transaction?

Like I said, bitcoin is a currency not money.  

Once the transaction fees go sky high, it forces bitcoin into a settlement layer role, which is really just a synonym for "store of value" aka the base of Exter's pyramid.  But since man-made currencies are not stores of value, and are just meaningless, abstract jibberish, the invisible hand should then put the brakes on and prevent the BTC market cap from increasing since it's trying to fulfill a role it cannot do.  The only question is at what transaction fee size does this occur.  My guess is around $1-2.  It's always possible BTC fills some niche role like real estate closings, car deals, or drug deals, and that market can bear higher fees, though.

[sidhujag]

Ideal money will keep on rolling, gold has been rolled on already.

Theres no better example of a failed IOU attempt than the economies of the past that used precious metals. That ship has sailed, some crypto will be the one to take over, better to have your money here than there imo. Precious metals will fall back to the price representing industrial demand (way below)

LOL, you're flat out lying to yourself.  Bitcoin does not solve ANY counter party risk problems - it has FAR WORSE counter party risk than metals do.  If you believe the "ship has sailed" on metals, then you should probably dump your bitcoin now since it's fundamentally worse than metals in ALL ASPECTS that metals are valued for from counter party risk, to fungibility, durability, store of value, limited supply (rough consensus attack), etc.  

All forms of cryptocurrency are nothing but Rube Goldberg machines that attempt to obfuscate their failures by adding mass complexity to smokescreen what's really going on.  The only way you're getting a non-fraudulent monetary system on this planet is by using metals in native coin form (not IOUs for metals).  Due to severe technical burden shoveled upon users (like old people who will never understand things like RBF), lack of ability to scale, and need to maintain wealth in a 3rd party chain of custody for things like wills, bitcoin is even more likely to end up as banker IOUs than metals are.  This is assuming bitcoin even worked and does what it claims in the first place, but it doesn't.

Ive already shown why and how your wrong but you keep bringing up the same argument over and over.. refer to nick szabos article if you dont believe me.. the money with higher utility always wins.. you seem to have the bagholders dilemma  you hold gold and wont sell for a loss or something. I do not hold bitcoin note that i said crypto even though bitcoin is better than gold who knows if it will be the one to win.

if LN can help solve microtxs then something like that would solve your fee issues.

[iamnotback]

IMPORTANT: Nick Szabo admits that LN is not socially scalable.

[r0ach]

the money with higher utility always wins..

You keep falling back on this meaningless and ill-defined phrase "higher utility".  Since bitcoin doesn't even have enough TPS to service a semi-abandoned town on-chain, there is no utility to speak of.  Even if you claim by some miracle scaling will be fixed, you also completely ignore that bitcoin does not function in a decentralized manner, has no Nash equilibrium, nor does it remove counter party risk, nor is it fungible, nor is it a store of value, etc.

You claim bitcoin derives utility as money when it has no attributes of money!  It's like claiming a dead salmon provides higher utility than a hammer as a tool to hit a nail.  It was never a tool in the first place!  It's just some Rube Goldberg machine some entity created.  The creation of bitcoin was not some type of divine event where we need to change the calenders from AD to AB (after bitcoin).  People like Antonopolous try to convince people that, but it's just cult recruiting type behavior or a pump and dump scheme.

It's a fact, bitcoin never improved upon anything gold and silver already do.  It didn't solve any important computer science problems like Byzantine generals either.  It's literally just security through obscurity aka a Rube Goldberg machine.  It does everything worse than metals besides the speed in which you can send it, but digital fiat already did the same thing, and bitcoin is equal to digital fiat in that regard since it's not decentralized.

To top it all off, the last straw bitcoin people grasp is that you can "counterfeit" metals so bitcoin has to be better!  Even this is a complete lie.  It's the year 2017, there's all kinds of machinery available now to easily test if metals are real or not.  However, due to the rough consensus attack, bitcoin can be counterfeited to infinity with no valid test to see which is "real" because there never was a real one in the first place.  Don't even get me started on bitcoin governance.  Bitcoin governance was initially devised as some type of crude form of mob rule (which didn't even pass any type of common sense test then), and has now devolved into cartel oligarchy.

[iamnotback]

My thesis of a bifurcation of global money is confirmed.

[iamnotback]

Re: Miner cartel, Bankster cartel, or an altcoin? Your choice?

Some ground rules have to be explained so that readers can make sense of this, so they can clearly discern who is the idiot with inkblot comprehension skills.

1. Nash's theory of Ideal Money has as its very foundation, the absolute requirement that the standard money (aka the high valued settlement money) must be absolutely honest, impartial, and have a predictable schedule of debasement. If this requirement is not met, then the entire theory crumbles to sand, because for example as Nash explained, the system of national currencies we have now is non-informational because there is no honest, predictable standard value which can enable the information of the free market to anneal. In other words, a totally relative system is a circle jerk of the blind leading the blind (bad money compared against bad money). But we know already from our upthread analysis of Bitcoin that it is completely controlled by the whales, and thus there is no reason to believe it will forever remain honest. Rothschild controls Bitcoin and when he is ready in future when the entire world is dependent on this standard money, then he can start to do dishonest things with it and bring the world to Revelation with all the wealth of the world concentrated on the hill in Jerusalem, as predicted in the Bible. Everything is proceeding exactly as predicted, so it is very easy for me to discern what is happening.

2. The good currencies are destined to wipe out the bad currencies over time as the public and the free markets anneal to the survival-of-the-fittest wherein those systems which had employed the good money as their unit-of-account will have prospered. But this means a lot of pain in the interim time while old systems fight against the good money and there booms and busts in bad money regimes. The private banking in Bitcoin off chain LN will be beholden to the (regulations, central banks, etc) regions wherein they do business, unlike the Bitcoin on chain money which will be global money immune to regulation because of the nature of its regulation being the secure/immutable protocol of the blockchain (and this is a key point!). This is entirely my point that unleashing unregulated fractional reserve banking on off chain Bitcoin transactions denominated in BTC (at par) globally would cause extreme distress just as the Greece borrowing in Euros when their industrial productivity is not as high as Germany has bankrupted Greece. This is the 10 Kings stage of regional currencies as predicted in Revelation in the Bible. This is the pain and chaos that precedes the final stage when the entire world submits to a single world currency and the 666 mark on everyone's forehead, as mentioned for item #1 above.


Bitcoin is the NWO coin. It was created by Rothschild and he controls it behind the scenes.

Now my point is that during the 10 Kings stage, these regional currencies (e.g. the Yuan for the Asian Union) and any private banking "BTC" derivative notes issued within those regimes, will not be a global unit, because they will have failures which are independent of each other (because they are not on chain protocol enforced money). Thus my point is that during that period, the knowledge age economy which is already globalized and to a large extent ignores and is immune to regional regulation, will desire a unit-of-account which is global and protocol enforced on chain. I intend to provide this unit with my project and our money will diverge from Bitcoin's universe. We will bifurcate away from Bitcoin's old world economy which is trying to convert the legacy political and financial systems of the world to the Ideal Money. Instead we will go directly to Ideal Money enforced on chain and ours will be even better than Bitcoin because it will be deflationary instead of only 0% inflation.

And we will kick ass. Those who want to suffer and moan in pain will go with the banksters and their Bitcoin lie. It is a lie because of that I wrote in #1.

And I don't care what that idiot writes, because it should be now very clear he is an idiot who deserves his appointment with his future pain and suffering.

In the Bible it says that the Beast is wounded. I am telling you I think our work is what wounds the Beast.

[r0ach]

[sidhujag]

IMPORTANT: Nick Szabo admits that LN is not socially scalable.

Ok what about dash style instantsend where mempool tx is locked across the network and then masternodes also confirm this lock thus producing pseudo confirmations.. wouldnt this type of.thing solve fees because people wont be paying high fees to get into next block

[sloanf]

good to see some people here are finally getting it. Martin Armstrong is a scamster and a cheap charlatan. All he does is taking money from idiots like @iamnotback in exchange for bs. That's it.
 
In addition to claiming to be a forecaster, trader, programmer, historian, physicist, seismologist, expert in government, politics, and so much else this charlatan is now in a new business. He now all of a sudden is... drum roll... a constitutional lawyer https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/north_america/americas-current-economy/does-it-matter-if-you-are-born-outside-usa-to-be-president/. I mean this conman could not even manage to get into a community college, never did anything in his life but cheating, lying and spreading bs on his amateurish blog and conferences.

He claims that he has something like NASA+IMF but in reality it's just a one man show. It's just him. No employees, no offices, and of course no super computer. The charlatan is totally incompetent, broke and just  desperate for someone else's money. Sound familiar? The Great and Terrible Wizard of Oz, an ordinary conman.

[iamnotback]

IMPORTANT: Nick Szabo admits that LN is not socially scalable.

Ok what about dash style instantsend where mempool tx is locked across the network and then masternodes also confirm this lock thus producing pseudo confirmations.. wouldnt this type of.thing solve fees because people wont be paying high fees to get into next block

It is one way but not particularly robust. I think I have a better way.

But you could fork Graphene DPoS or Dash for the time being.

[iamnotback]

@OROBTC, you wanted to understand money and the knowledge age.

Here is all the edification @r0ach will ever need. Make sure you click the link in the linked post, which will take you to my main elucidation.

[sidhujag]

IMPORTANT: Nick Szabo admits that LN is not socially scalable.

Ok what about dash style instantsend where mempool tx is locked across the network and then masternodes also confirm this lock thus producing pseudo confirmations.. wouldnt this type of.thing solve fees because people wont be paying high fees to get into next block

It is one way but not particularly robust. I think I have a better way.

But you could fork Graphene DPoS or Dash for the time being.

There are many vulnerabilities in both, but things like schnorr signatures may help.

[iamnotback]

Nash's Ideal Money being the basis behind Bitcoin and how it relates to Armstrong's writings:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1837136.msg18370659#msg18370659

[r0ach]

@OROBTC, you wanted to understand money and the knowledge age.

Here is all the edification @r0ach will ever need. Make sure you click the link in the linked post, which will take you to my main elucidation.

The knowledge silver age

[OROBTC]

@OROBTC, you wanted to understand money and the knowledge age.

Here is all the edification @r0ach will ever need. Make sure you click the link in the linked post, which will take you to my main elucidation.

The knowledge silver age

r0ach my man (my insect?  my friend?), I am not impressed with silver at $18.00, even though I own some.  Not a whole helluva lot, but enough to have a big smile should it get back up to $50.  Should silver get to the lofty levels some predict, great!

Gold is my Wealth Preserver, with a nice side of platinum.

Silver is bulky.  If silver goes to $100, then a tube would be $2000.  BFD.  I'll drink better coffee, so you know, OK.  

Sure, I understand that silver is more volatile than gold.  But volatility and exposure to a risky upside does not convince me to jump in.  I know MULTIPLE people who have lost money playing with "The Devil's Metal" (Ag).