Martin Armstrong Discussion

[Taro12]

Hi, I am new here. I'm glad that there is a discussion of how to use this system.

I have been using Socrates for awhile.

Other than reversals and turning points, is there a previous post about how to use Socrates analyses?

For example:

What does it mean when Socrates said: "our long-term trend and cyclical strength indicators are both bullish 169498"?

It said "bullish" but sometimes the number is below the current market price. Why?

Is the price going down?

1. It said: "Looking at the Array, the key Weekly targets on the Turning Point Model... Considering all factors, there is a possibility of a decline moving into 8/6 with the opposite trend thereafter into the week of August 27th."
2. It also said: "At this moment, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the weekly level."
3. It also said: "It is possible to see a turning point come this month... Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a reaction high. However, the market has been neutral for right now so caution is advisable and look more closely at the short-term trading levels for a hint of the next directional move into that target time frame"

The above three sentences are making me confused.

"The next turning point should be a reaction high with a possibility that the market decline into 8/6 and the opposite trend thereafter" --> Does this mean I should buy this market on 8/6?

Should I wait until it elected a weekly bullish reversal? Should I wait until the weekly trend change to rising?

Should I focus only on the reversals and turning points?
 
I mean there are so many ways to use this system. Is there a guide we can use?

Thanks

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[Thekees]

Hi, I am new here. I'm glad that there is a discussion of how to use this system.

I have been using Socrates for awhile.

Other than reversals and turning points, is there a previous post about how to use Socrates analyses?

For example:

What does it mean when Socrates said: "our long-term trend and cyclical strength indicators are both bullish 169498"?

It said "bullish" but sometimes the number is below the current market price. Why?

Is the price going down?

1. It said: "Looking at the Array, the key Weekly targets on the Turning Point Model... Considering all factors, there is a possibility of a decline moving into 8/6 with the opposite trend thereafter into the week of August 27th."
2. It also said: "At this moment, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the weekly level."
3. It also said: "It is possible to see a turning point come this month... Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a reaction high. However, the market has been neutral for right now so caution is advisable and look more closely at the short-term trading levels for a hint of the next directional move into that target time frame"

The above three sentences are making me confused.

"The next turning point should be a reaction high with a possibility that the market decline into 8/6 and the opposite trend thereafter" --> Does this mean I should buy this market on 8/6?

Should I wait until it elected a weekly bullish reversal? Should I wait until the weekly trend change to rising?

Should I focus only on the reversals and turning points?
 
I mean there are so many ways to use this system. Is there a guide we can use?

Thanks

We are all still trying to figure this out. On Armstrongs website there are guides of how to use the arrays, its not as simple as buy/sell at the turning points, there are also cycle inversions but how to know when they unfold im also no sure.
Have a look at these, they were posted a while back and summarise lots of the socrates stuff.

https://imgur.com/a/XjmXL
https://imgur.com/a/UXJVxEn

Personally I ignore the almost all of the socrates text and just look at the reversals and try and trade with or off them. As you have said though Socrates has also started providing the array turning points so I am now trying to use these together with the reversals.

[TanteStefana]

Would be interesting to know his opinion about the Bitcoin movement and about the future of cryptocurrency itself how would we be integrated in the worldwide system of economy and currency.

[Cobrak777]

It is ironic that the conditions setting up today were also the case in 1927. The Fed back then lowered U.S. rates to try to deflect the capital inflows to help bailout Europe. The markets eventually backfired and capital shifted. It poured into the USA and doubled the U.S. share market, despite doubling interest rates to try to prevent the crisis they helped to create. This all led to the 1931 sovereign debt crisis and those economic declines resulted in political chaos. In 1933, FDR came to power, but so did Hitler and Mao. That was all made possible because of the collapse in government debt. We are in the very same position today as the Fed is surrendering domestic policy objectives for international concerns.

[Traxo]

@AnonyMint communicated to me, “Where are you now @realr0ach, haha:”

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/precious-metals/gold/gold-the-changing-fundamentals/

[STT]

Gold never changes, I thought that was the point to holding it.  The perceptions of it might change and obviously its changing as a ratio to various FIAT standards and debt vs growth and all sorts.   The gold itself cant ever be argued to have changed though, even production of gold rising is only mirroring global population growth and so rising demand potential also.


The more dangerous ground is on holding industrial metals like silver or even platinum because its used in car production and supply and demand is less clear.  I would guess even those two will appreciate over many years vs dollar

Traditionally, this would form a cocktail of geopolitical uncertainty that would lead to screams buy gold!

The reason for strong dollar now is the tariffs and trade barriers.    Dollar is a heavily speculated currency, its not in reaction to trade done as obviously USA runs a trade deficit and the money is being used globally as a reserve.   The point with paper related to politics is that it is subject to great changes, right now the Dollar rises because its seen as a safe haven but the perception can miss the point that dollar has grown weaker.    Price doesn't dictate fundamentals, it can run opposite and everyone here knows this already but none of us want to fight the market on it.    Its still going to happen that dollar weakness eventually is apparent.

People always end up comparing gold with Bitcoin because they are both headless entities.   They have no defence or campaign to champion their positives.     Any actual dynamic demonstrated comes via a free market itself, its a slow method like water on stone its effect is gradual but as natural as it gets. I have no idea when Gold comes good but I really have no doubt on it because of what I see as temporary effects.

Ultimately trading tariffs, sanctions, barriers, etc as an effect make USA poorer, as a nation its a net importer even in energy I think that might be true.   Either production must increase dramatically within USA or its freely trading nation partners, if that does not occur then costs rise.  If costs rise then the nation is poorer, productivity is lower and growth is not there, lots of knock on effects.   The sum total is not going to be a stronger dollar then, thats the fundamentals I think but right this moment we have trading reacting by raising Dollar.  

Its perfectly fine then if gold falls but theres no real negative I see in gold for its price being lower.   Anyone who does use or hold gold should aim to buy every year, sell only when they aim to sell many of their assets I guess.  Its slow, heavy, inert and never says a word in its defence it requires great perception then is how I see this situation.   Dollar on the other hand has billions speaking its book as if it were gospel when its only a paper promise paid by politics not trade.

[worldsuccess01]

Im so interested about Armstrong discussion about here life story but I am not so satistfied the articles which is any post in the forum and hoping it will be opened so that all we know the real life of Armstrong discussion.

[Inspiretk]

Today's article is very interesting: Gold & the Changing Fundamentals
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/precious-metals/gold/gold-the-changing-fundamentals/

I'm reading it, and it's screaming out bitcoin/crypto as gold's replacement.
Question: Can you express any opinion on gold?
Answer from Armstrong:
... We have to understand one thing. The younger generations do not see gold as money as do the aging generation. The older generations remember being taught that is school and the days of the gold standard. The younger generation does not even bother with paper money and pays with their cell phones. This is raising the question of whether gold will remain as a safe-haven instrument in the future if the younger generation does not even consider gold suitable for anything other than a trinket ...

[sidhujag]

Today's article is very interesting: Gold & the Changing Fundamentals
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/precious-metals/gold/gold-the-changing-fundamentals/

I'm reading it, and it's screaming out bitcoin/crypto as gold's replacement.
Question: Can you express any opinion on gold?
Answer from Armstrong:
... We have to understand one thing. The younger generations do not see gold as money as do the aging generation. The older generations remember being taught that is school and the days of the gold standard. The younger generation does not even bother with paper money and pays with their cell phones. This is raising the question of whether gold will remain as a safe-haven instrument in the future if the younger generation does not even consider gold suitable for anything other than a trinket ...

ofc i told roach yrs ago that when btc beats gold price it will be for long term instead he sold at $600.

yesterday the selloff in pms lined up with rise in crypto. This is ideal money at work.

[Traxo]

Armstrong has clearly outlined his thoughts on Bitcoin and he isn't a fan: https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/cryptocurrency/cryptocurrency-private-v-public/

Shelby refuted Armstrong (and he emails all his refutations to Armstrong):

https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@anonymint/re-anonymint-re-anonymint-re-anonymint-re-goldgoatsnguns-re-anonymint-re-anonymint-re-anonymint-bitcoin-rises-because-land-is-becoming-worthless-20180812t142803478z

[Inspiretk]

He's got good points, but I think sometimes he's too harsh on Armstrong. Even great people sometimes don't understand a new concept straight away.

[sidhujag]

It doesn't matter either way. Reversals will determine if it is an uptrend or downtrend. Technicals>fundamentals.

fundamentals always matters more. technicals is for traders fundamentals for investors.

[sidhujag]

It doesn't matter either way. Reversals will determine if it is an uptrend or downtrend. Technicals>fundamentals.

fundamentals always matters more. technicals is for traders fundamentals for investors.

Your statement implies that fundamentals are more reliable over the long term than technicals. However, technicals display order even in the long term. Fundamental analysis suffers from a greater amount of subjective analysis than technicals. But Socrates' whole point is to analyze objectively without emotion, for various timeframes.

thats true for some types of macro events because humans generally affected by the same ratios that govern nature and thus likely to attritube major decisions to those events however fundamentally in our lifetime it matters not because we are only in our work lives for about 30 yrs and thus macro events if you miss one will likely cost you your entire position you have built up assuming perfect game theory on your part which we know is next to impossible. If that is your gameplan better to find an edge like arbitrage and apply the same principles with an expectancy calculation and let a.bot run. Fundamentals are generally hands off and for the most part get you ahead alot further than technicals do for anything worthwhile.

See me vs roach. He has his points technically but fundamentally he was wrong because he doesnt understand Ideal Money by Nash nor did he read szabos post I told him to. Therefor even though sample size is small it is conclusive the more you look around that fundamentals trump technicals no matter how lucrative technicals may look. Livermore would agree with this post.

[sidhujag]

It doesn't matter either way. Reversals will determine if it is an uptrend or downtrend. Technicals>fundamentals.

fundamentals always matters more. technicals is for traders fundamentals for investors.

Your statement implies that fundamentals are more reliable over the long term than technicals. However, technicals display order even in the long term. Fundamental analysis suffers from a greater amount of subjective analysis than technicals. But Socrates' whole point is to analyze objectively without emotion, for various timeframes.

thats true for some types of macro events because humans generally affected by the same ratios that govern nature and thus likely to attritube major decisions to those events however fundamentally in our lifetime it matters not because we are only in our work lives for about 30 yrs and thus macro events if you miss one will likely cost you your entire position you have built up assuming perfect game theory on your part which we know is next to impossible. If that is your gameplan better to find an edge like arbitrage and apply the same principles with an expectancy calculation and let a.bot run. Fundamentals are generally hands off and for the most part get you ahead alot further than technicals do for anything worthwhile.

See me vs roach. He has his points technically but fundamentally he was wrong because he doesnt understand Ideal Money by Nash nor did he read szabos post I told him to. Therefor even though sample size is small it is conclusive the more you look around that fundamentals trump technicals no matter how lucrative technicals may look. Livermore would agree with this post.

Fundamentals again, are subjective. Unless one factors all fundamentals, there will always be something they miss out on. Fundamentally, if one bitcoin is worth 100k (subjective) and is undervalued, one could rationalize buying at any price. And they would have lost it all (many have). Which types of macro events are you referring to, that technicals cannot capture? Technicals again, can be long term; they can have trendlines that last years, or even decades. They can be just as hands off as fundamentals. In fact, fundamentals don't matter if you're buying something at 19k that suddenly becomes 6k and end up bagholding for decades. Time will tell.

Ideal money is hypothetical. There never has been an ideal money so far. One can argue bitcoin is ideal money, but there has not been any Bullish Reversal after its drop. Until that happens, Bitcoin is still technically in a downtrend and has not generated any buy signal yet. Thus, fundamentals are subjective.

technicals rely on subjective metric that narrates a herd mentality that it is likely to reproduce outputs from similar inputs. In the end technicals may or may not allow you to sell at 19k but those same people will fundamentally be aligned to buy back because of what bitcoin represents. The target market is so large that risk reward points to holding at any of these levels which is a fundamental move rather than technical.

In other words if you want to get technical... measure the amount of people selling out to cash and back to their bank accounts to measure if a trend is dead. I guess you wont find much.. this is again a function of Ideal Money.

Gold was asymptotically ideal.. fiat was more ideal and crypto is more ideal. The actual term Ideal Money is midleading its more of an idea of a classification in general terms and not specific description of what exists or doesnt exist

[STT]

ofc i told roach yrs ago that when btc beats gold price it will be for long term instead he sold at $600.

yesterday the selloff in pms lined up with rise in crypto. This is ideal money at work.

Long term its efficiency which will grant gold or BTC the higher price but it cant be said easily as the Bitcoin protocol can be changed for some efficient use.   At present BTC is too expensive in its costs I think. 

Stronger dollar in 2018 has hurt gold and BTC also I think, both seem well contained and out of favour.  The dollar declined for most of 2017 and I think was part of the story for the large rise in Bitcoin and its momentum to end the year so well.   It could do this again but right now Dollar is still climbing while appearing strong, I'm not sure I can be bullish BTC until USD does crest expectations and start a negative trend again. 

[sidhujag]

ofc i told roach yrs ago that when btc beats gold price it will be for long term instead he sold at $600.

yesterday the selloff in pms lined up with rise in crypto. This is ideal money at work.

Long term its efficiency which will grant gold or BTC the higher price but it cant be said easily as the Bitcoin protocol can be changed for some efficient use.   At present BTC is too expensive in its costs I think. 

Stronger dollar in 2018 has hurt gold and BTC also I think, both seem well contained and out of favour.  The dollar declined for most of 2017 and I think was part of the story for the large rise in Bitcoin and its momentum to end the year so well.   It could do this again but right now Dollar is still climbing while appearing strong, I'm not sure I can be bullish BTC until USD does crest expectations and start a negative trend again. 

due to ideal money bitcoin cannot be changed.. you have to work around it while preserving security for the usecase.

[Inspiretk]

You can't just do Technical and/or Fundamental analysis. If you understand how the world works, another market can affect the market you are analyzing. So your analysis even though it's correct, will be affected by an outside force sooner or later. You just need to keep that in mind, and never marry your trade. I don't have any answers, I just keep eyes out and see what's happening and follow people to see if they're right or not and ignore those that's wrong, and keep following those that's more right.

[Traxo]

STT, Shelby wanted me to ask you to do some reading because he strongly disagrees with you about gold:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4920367.msg44422077#msg44422077

[contraband]

STT, Shelby wanted me to ask you to do some reading because he strongly disagrees with you about gold:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4920367.msg44422077#msg44422077

Very solid points!!!

Gold and Silver's potential to be a viable medimum of exchange, is only decreasing as the time goes by. This also has an effect on its use as a store of value, as the value will continue to go down.

Now, if society were to completely fall apart, to the point that government has little control of a few select cities, and almost zero control outside of them, sure, gold and silver would become more relevant, but not by a whole hell of a lot, and the gap in value between gold/silver and crypto would increase exponentially in such a scenario.

So then in what conditions would gold/silver be a good choice?

Now that crypto is here, I would think everyone that has even a limited grasp on the dynamics of crypto, would see this as a no brainer?

Im really strugging to see where Im wrong here? Especially after reading Shelbys linked post. Whats the argument after reading that?

Im not trying to be a smartass when I say, that Im surprised that people think that gold/silver would even compare to cryptos potential in any case!

Many thought silver would take off because of its use in industry, but we see what we got from that.

[STT]

So then in what conditions would gold/silver be a good choice?

Now that crypto is here, I would think everyone that has even a limited grasp on the dynamics of crypto, would see this as a no brainer?

Im really strugging to see where Im wrong here? Especially after reading Shelbys linked post. Whats the argument after reading that?

Im not trying to be a smartass when I say, that Im surprised that people think that gold/silver would even compare to cryptos potential in any case!

Many thought silver would take off because of its use in industry, but we see what we got from that.

The case for either metal is quite simple, they require no maintenance to continue in value.   Where as BTC has a network that must be maintained,  I dont especially see the two standards of metal and electronic transfer as being in competition.   If BTC achieves qualities gold will never have then they can both appreciate at the same time.    
Also for gold there is qualities it has that are not replaced by the existence of BTC.   It is a unique element, there is no immediate argument between the two as they do different things, I see both retaining value going foward.  The main issue is that neither is being used commonly.

When US dollar standard fails as it appears it must for the world to carry on untroubled then I would never assume the USD will fall perfectly intact never a flaw until it hits the ground completely unused.    Whats far more likely is the global reserve of using just one nation for world trade is fractured, the idea itself is a failure and in that process the value held by USD distributes to many different types of monetary transfer.   So we'll have alternate FIAT standards with presumably proper interest being paid, we'll have value placed in metal and commodities and we'll very likely have some value attributed to online blockchains.    There will be paper currency partially backed by gold, thats just historic reversion and it worked previously no reason to doubt it wont be tried and tested most likely working similarly in future.

 I dont believe any one standard will replace USD as a duplicate in size and form as it transacts daily right now