Nights Watch by Afrikoin

[Fakhoury]

“...if a large amount of people want to hold their wealth in the form of bitcoin, JPMorgan will attempt to provide them with that service.”

Could you share please the source of this quote.

On a side note, I'm extremely happy for you and your topic, as I said before, it's a real gem, but PLEASE, be more bullish man

[1714937441]

1714937441

[HI-TEC99]

"People forget that this is all well within technical movement. We were looking for $430 or $435 before any of this craig wright shit happened.

Just like the hearn announcment, prices are simply random and bouncing around technical constraints with fundamental targets. Our puny reptile brains are trying to find patterns, and are applying correlated (but not causative) explicit events to try to explain price. In reality, our brains look for distinct events (like whales acting in the market, or events causing moves), but in reality thousands of decentralized actions just reach an equilibrium.

None of this shit matters."

https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/4hlke2/daily_discussion_tuesday_may_03_2016/d2r4uiy

We might have gone down to $435 anyway, but the craig wright shit might have hastened that drop. There is some technical name the chart guys use for the effect events can have on the price. At the minimum they can speed up the pumps and dumps that would eventually happen whatever. That's a good thing if it saves us months of boring sideways flatline prices.

[Tzupy]

...
I with you (highlighted). I think traders expecting another rally to unprecedented highs are delusional and will get caught out if (when) we hit a high and head back down. Its part of the characteristics of wave B.

I'm expecting at least $650 and open to reach $1000, but doubt this is the big mega bubble wave some are suggesting.

My opinion though,could be wong.

Meanwhile, Tzupy, does this mean you are bullish?

The evolution of the bid sum on Huobi for the last 30 days suggests an upcoming pump.

I am moderately bullish, but I try to keep an eye on Chinese whale manipulation. Closed my long yesterday at 452$ and now looking for a new entry.
If the market will reach at least ~480$ and then find support at ~450$, the ~800$ scenario will become probable.
If we go slow up, fail to make a significantly higher high, and then break support at 450$, then IMO we'll test 300$.

Bulls showed weakness, but the bullish scenario is not yet invalidated. However, bulls will have to break resistance at 500$ within 2 weeks to make it happen.
But with the rather low volume and depleted bid sides on western exchanges, this looks improbable now.

[Afrikoin]

[Afrikoin]

[Afrikoin]

r0ach I tried to explain this to you in the past and you still are repeating (what I and Martin Armstrong think is) the wrong conceptualization. I hope I can explain to you this time in a way that you will contemplate, because getting this wrong is going to be a big time error.

If you're looking at it in terms of the dollar and Bitcoin competing on equal grounds.  The USD is already the world reserve currency, and once you're #1, there's not much higher you can go.  The act of increasing interest rates would strengthen the dollar, yea, but not anywhere near to the extent the halving's effect on BTC price.

I do not see Bitcoin going anywhere but up from it's current position.  Some tiny interest rate increase is negligible in compared to the halving's effects. 

You are misunderstanding the timing and interplay presented by Armstrong which I explained in that post of mine if you clicked the quote and read the entire post.

Everyone right now thinks interest rates must decline because the US economy (and global  economy) is getting weaker. Thus everyone is skeptical about a rise in stock market. The stock market is slowing rising now to go against the majority of fools.

As the interest rate rises hit, they will assume this will crater the global economy, so they will sell the stock market and this will cause a brief contagion and crash. They will also sell off gold and all assets same as in 2008/2009. Thus Bitcoin can get caught up in this crazy reaction contagion. Remember silver fell from $21 to $8.

But what nobody understands is international capital flows. All the capital flows will head towards the USA as the safe haven during this expectation of global contraction due to rising interest rates. Thus paradoxically the US stock market will start booming in V bottom sling shot and no one will initially believe it has staying power. But the fundamental flows won't stop. So this US sling shot will turn into a raging bubble by late 2017 or 2018 with a double or triple possible.

So paradoxically the US stock market will rise with interest rates due to capital flows dominating. Also rising interest rates will drive people out of bonds, not into them. Armstrong has shown that stocks rise with interest rates at times of crisis like this such as 1920 - 1930 era.

Gold and Bitcoin will rise with the stock market as the public starts to realize the government is toast and they must shift to private assets such as stocks, AAA corporate bonds, gold, and other collectibles.

The US stock market has phased shift and is no longer going to be a public wave asset and will be a private assets and thus rise with the dollar and gold and crypto not opposite.

The price of gold and Bitcoin don't move in unison either:

Btw, gold and BTC are somewhat highly correlated (afair -0.58), contrary to what your eye is telling you. They are phase shifted, but that is not relevant.

Another thing that bothered me about that article is that I've looked at estimates of what percent the stock market is composed of regarding retirement funds and the numbers were always huge.  Raising interest rates tanks the stock market, so how does raising interest help retirement funds if so many of them are in the stock market in the first place?

See the above. Rising interest rates will raise the US stock market. The rest of the world will be toast. War is coming...

After 2018 the USA economy will have been choked off by the strong dollar which destroy the rest of the world and as international capital inflows abate.

Then we do a global monetary reset. Asia will bottom 2020. The West will continue declining in clusterfuck chaos through 2033.

[Afrikoin]

Would be great to get an opinion from RyNinDaCleM https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=15327

paging RyNinDaCleM

[Afrikoin]

Always pays to zoom out and look at the bigger picture, and for the more risk tolerant and more long term minded amongst us, it seems that $426-$428, represented a trendline breaking, Mom and Vol indicator bullish structure entry point into Bitcoin, targetting $650 and above......


....but just take a look at the Volume bars down the bottom of the chart. That aint yelling "its a bull!" to me.

Nope! It looks like triangle volume to me. The big confirmation volume will come with a break above the D-Wave high (475 iirc)

[Afrikoin]

You guys have to read this.

"Firstly, Satoshi Nakamoto is not one human being. It is or was a team.
Craig Wright named one person in his recent communications, being the
late Dave Kleinman. Craig did not name others, nor should I. While he
was the quintessential genius who had the original idea for Bitcoin and
wrote the lion's share of the code, Craig could not have done it alone.
Satoshi Nakamoto was a team effort."

Ian Grigg

http://www.metzdowd.com/pipermail/cryptography/2016-May/029323.html

[Tzupy]

https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/bitcoin-price-tipping-point/

[Afrikoin]

https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/bitcoin-price-tipping-point/

wow. THAT - IS - EXTREMELY NEGATIVE.

[Afrikoin]

Why I’m buying bitcoins

Charlies MOrris

http://moneyweek.com/why-im-buying-bitcoins/

[Afrikoin]

Satoshi Saga Continues: Tulip Trust Trustee Expected to Appear by September 19, Says Joseph VaughnPerling

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/satoshi-saga-continues-tulip-trust-trustee-expected-to-appear-by-september-says-joseph-vaughnperling-1462467803

[Tzupy]

https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/bitcoin-price-tipping-point/

wow. THAT - IS - EXTREMELY NEGATIVE.

EXTREMELY NEGATIVE? Hmm... Then let's show a bullish scenario, in which we are in a similar position with the 1st November 2015, but moving about 3 times slower.
If soon we'll see a pump and will be able to hug the upper BB in 6h time frame (2h back in November, adjusted for 3x slower), then a top of about 700$ is possible.

[Afrikoin]

BTC has taken the symmetrical triangle right to the wire. Nothing to say that it won't break up or down, and put in a new high, or low, which will then go on to form a new limit of a larger triangle here, but which way she is going to go, is a really a coinflip for me at the moment. Looking at Higher timeframes, it has to be said, that BTC is looking pretty bearish right now, which is perhaps one reason why Bitcoin will break up a bit. Wash out all the shorters, and suck in any long gravy train riders for when the real dump comes.





I am currently long on two seperate trades, but if I wasn't, BTC would be in a no trade situation for me right now. Should BTC dump on the break of this triangle, I have my stops set on margin trade, and will adjust target to scratch on solid BTC trade, with emergency Stop Loss down beneath bottom of current range, should this thing really tank.

[slap]

Some discussion on other site, where Venzen also is active:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?s=c702425ae4e67909495495a93a6c717d&t=432733&page=227

[Afrikoin]

Some discussion on other site, where Venzen also is active:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?s=c702425ae4e67909495495a93a6c717d&t=432733&page=227

Great thread! Thanks for sharing!

Share when you can thanks

[Afrikoin]

I have put up a poll. Please vote

[slap]

Alot of people think >470. If they put their money where there mouth is we can assume a lot of (leveraged) longs.
So a long-squeeze could be in the making. I voted downwards. Btc still has to deal with blocksize issues, and the halvening is something a lot of people are betting on an upward move. Well, who's buying them to the moon!?
I dont want to claim to be right though, but one has to be realistic. Still, I'm holding a few btc's- maybe I'm not right after all.

A Brexit could spark things infavour to btc for instance. I think intrensic btc can not double its value, external factors could lift btc. Hope this sounds okay, Engrish not my default language.

Great poll, should be an invite to clarify one's vote. This is a gentlemans thread.
plz keep up the good work, thnx.

[Tzupy]

Based on past wave shapes, this could form a triangle and then break down, from an overbought state.
For me the question is where will it find support, if it will form a higher low, then the bullish scenario, up to 700$, will be favored.
If it will correct down to say 410$, then we'll probably be in the middle of a complex correction and probably a much lower low looming.