Bitcoin Forum
November 19, 2024, 10:36:55 AM *
News: Check out the artwork 1Dq created to commemorate this forum's 15th anniversary
 
   Home   Help Search Login Register More  
Poll
Question: DO you like this thread
Meh
Yes
No

Pages: « 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 [16] 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 ... 198 »
  Print  
Author Topic: Nights Watch by Afrikoin  (Read 303324 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic.
Afrikoin (OP)
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1540
Merit: 1003


alan watts is all you need


View Profile
October 26, 2015, 08:15:05 PM
 #301

""My personal thought is that we're still going to make another run upwards in the near term. The prior few times we've been pushing these levels (March & July 2015), we had initial spikes to over $300, and then a pullback that occurred over the course of a few days which setup a second push towards the highs reached in the prior days. However, those second pushes have ultimately failed and signaled a turning point in the market both times. For the record, I'm talking about longer term charts like the 1D, not the intraday movements.

For now, my playbook is to wait on the second push towards $300. If we break new highs, then I'll assume we will continue the stair-step pattern up the wall of worry. If we fail to break new highs, I'll be putting in a small short because I believe that may be the signal of a reversal, and I'll add to the short if we move lower.
""



              ▄▄▄██████▄▄▄
          ▄██████████████████▄
       ▄████████████████████████▄
 ▄▄  ▄████████████████████████████▄
███████████████████████████████████▄
 ▀▀█████████████████████████████████▄
   ██████████████████████████████████
   ██████████████████████████████████
   ██████████████████████████████████
   ██████████████████████████████████
   ▀████████████████████████████████▀
    ▀██████████████████████████████▀
     ▀▀██████████████████████████▀
        ▀██████████████████████▀
           ▀▀▀████████████▀▀▀
.
.....
.....
.....
.....
.....
.....





Afrikoin (OP)
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1540
Merit: 1003


alan watts is all you need


View Profile
October 26, 2015, 09:02:34 PM
 #302

Pulled back under. Rally does look toast from here. It would be full retard mode if we kept going higher




              ▄▄▄██████▄▄▄
          ▄██████████████████▄
       ▄████████████████████████▄
 ▄▄  ▄████████████████████████████▄
███████████████████████████████████▄
 ▀▀█████████████████████████████████▄
   ██████████████████████████████████
   ██████████████████████████████████
   ██████████████████████████████████
   ██████████████████████████████████
   ▀████████████████████████████████▀
    ▀██████████████████████████████▀
     ▀▀██████████████████████████▀
        ▀██████████████████████▀
           ▀▀▀████████████▀▀▀
.
.....
.....
.....
.....
.....
.....





Hyena
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2114
Merit: 1015



View Profile WWW
October 26, 2015, 09:08:24 PM
 #303

Pulled back under. Rally does look toast from here. It would be full retard mode if we kept going higher

Look at the volume. It is already full retard mode. All forms of extrapolation will fail at this moment since we are entering the great unknown.

★★★ CryptoGraffiti.info ★★★ Hidden Messages Found from the Block Chain (Thread)
Afrikoin (OP)
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1540
Merit: 1003


alan watts is all you need


View Profile
October 26, 2015, 09:31:19 PM
 #304

Pulled back under. Rally does look toast from here. It would be full retard mode if we kept going higher



Look at the volume. It is already full retard mode. All forms of extrapolation will fail at this moment since we are entering the great unknown.
















              ▄▄▄██████▄▄▄
          ▄██████████████████▄
       ▄████████████████████████▄
 ▄▄  ▄████████████████████████████▄
███████████████████████████████████▄
 ▀▀█████████████████████████████████▄
   ██████████████████████████████████
   ██████████████████████████████████
   ██████████████████████████████████
   ██████████████████████████████████
   ▀████████████████████████████████▀
    ▀██████████████████████████████▀
     ▀▀██████████████████████████▀
        ▀██████████████████████▀
           ▀▀▀████████████▀▀▀
.
.....
.....
.....
.....
.....
.....





lebing
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1288
Merit: 1000

Enabling the maximal migration


View Profile
October 26, 2015, 09:40:38 PM
 #305

looks like the west has been relegated to mere arbitrage  Shocked

Bro, do you even blockchain?
-E Voorhees
Wekkel
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 3108
Merit: 1531


yes


View Profile
October 26, 2015, 10:47:54 PM
 #306

The West will return, eventually.

Afrikoin (OP)
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1540
Merit: 1003


alan watts is all you need


View Profile
October 28, 2015, 08:11:03 PM
 #307

David Alcindor's count doesn't make much sense tbh.

Could be an expanding B-wave triangle if we cross the previous $318 top.






              ▄▄▄██████▄▄▄
          ▄██████████████████▄
       ▄████████████████████████▄
 ▄▄  ▄████████████████████████████▄
███████████████████████████████████▄
 ▀▀█████████████████████████████████▄
   ██████████████████████████████████
   ██████████████████████████████████
   ██████████████████████████████████
   ██████████████████████████████████
   ▀████████████████████████████████▀
    ▀██████████████████████████████▀
     ▀▀██████████████████████████▀
        ▀██████████████████████▀
           ▀▀▀████████████▀▀▀
.
.....
.....
.....
.....
.....
.....





Afrikoin (OP)
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1540
Merit: 1003


alan watts is all you need


View Profile
October 28, 2015, 08:11:57 PM
 #308

David Alcindor updated:



Here is the most BULLISH scenario I can come up with:

1 - First, it is nearly guaranted that we are in a prolong correction, hence the large, encompassing A-B-C pattern.

2 - Projection of such pattern (not in terms of Elliott Wave, but simply in terms of geometry), Wave-C projection off of Wave-B defines 363.66 as pan-ultimate top for this correction ... Near December 2015.

3 - The two most recent channels reflect R.N. Elliott channel methodology ... Hence, we just completed an Intermediate Wave-(3), whereas Intermediate Wave-(4) should be under development at this time.

4 - Based on same R. N. Elliott channel construction, the secondary channel (GREEN) points to a higher border validation at/near 363.66.

5 - Bad news is that from a total Wave, these broad sweeping correction will tend to return o the origin of Wave-A ... Interestingly, this fits the Predictive/Forecasting Model's outer most tolerable WL value = 152.72, defined this past SEP 2015.

So, as mentioned before, the only analyses are revealing at the H4 levels and above, offering a broad "bird'seye view" of what the Bitcoin trader will HAVE TO endure, not only in terms of adverse excursion if ever SHORT, but in counter-trend threat if taking a long position, especially near the current yet-to-define top.

Best,

David Alcindor

Sauce: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/vTWNd0Qk-BTCUSD-bitstamp-Stomped-Mulls-Decline-bitcoin-BTC-forex/



              ▄▄▄██████▄▄▄
          ▄██████████████████▄
       ▄████████████████████████▄
 ▄▄  ▄████████████████████████████▄
███████████████████████████████████▄
 ▀▀█████████████████████████████████▄
   ██████████████████████████████████
   ██████████████████████████████████
   ██████████████████████████████████
   ██████████████████████████████████
   ▀████████████████████████████████▀
    ▀██████████████████████████████▀
     ▀▀██████████████████████████▀
        ▀██████████████████████▀
           ▀▀▀████████████▀▀▀
.
.....
.....
.....
.....
.....
.....





Afrikoin (OP)
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1540
Merit: 1003


alan watts is all you need


View Profile
October 28, 2015, 08:14:01 PM
 #309

this is it.......it is wave 5. minimum local target 1880 for the ED but medium term tgt is still the wave 4 area.... 1760 or so. ED are sharp and fast to resolve.





              ▄▄▄██████▄▄▄
          ▄██████████████████▄
       ▄████████████████████████▄
 ▄▄  ▄████████████████████████████▄
███████████████████████████████████▄
 ▀▀█████████████████████████████████▄
   ██████████████████████████████████
   ██████████████████████████████████
   ██████████████████████████████████
   ██████████████████████████████████
   ▀████████████████████████████████▀
    ▀██████████████████████████████▀
     ▀▀██████████████████████████▀
        ▀██████████████████████▀
           ▀▀▀████████████▀▀▀
.
.....
.....
.....
.....
.....
.....





odin.dillinger
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 43
Merit: 0


View Profile
October 29, 2015, 10:40:44 AM
 #310

So both Chessnut and MasterLuc is guestimating this movement up to be bigger than 320?
Afrikoin (OP)
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1540
Merit: 1003


alan watts is all you need


View Profile
October 29, 2015, 01:15:05 PM
 #311

So both Chessnut and MasterLuc is guestimating this movement up to be bigger than 320?

Yes, many seem to agree this could go much higher. $ 360



It is rare to have different analysts  applying different techniques agree on a trend. That itself speaks volumes. An perhaps a lesson to remember if/when another bubble occurs.

Find the right analysts (diverse set) and watch what they say



              ▄▄▄██████▄▄▄
          ▄██████████████████▄
       ▄████████████████████████▄
 ▄▄  ▄████████████████████████████▄
███████████████████████████████████▄
 ▀▀█████████████████████████████████▄
   ██████████████████████████████████
   ██████████████████████████████████
   ██████████████████████████████████
   ██████████████████████████████████
   ▀████████████████████████████████▀
    ▀██████████████████████████████▀
     ▀▀██████████████████████████▀
        ▀██████████████████████▀
           ▀▀▀████████████▀▀▀
.
.....
.....
.....
.....
.....
.....





Afrikoin (OP)
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1540
Merit: 1003


alan watts is all you need


View Profile
October 29, 2015, 01:17:18 PM
 #312




              ▄▄▄██████▄▄▄
          ▄██████████████████▄
       ▄████████████████████████▄
 ▄▄  ▄████████████████████████████▄
███████████████████████████████████▄
 ▀▀█████████████████████████████████▄
   ██████████████████████████████████
   ██████████████████████████████████
   ██████████████████████████████████
   ██████████████████████████████████
   ▀████████████████████████████████▀
    ▀██████████████████████████████▀
     ▀▀██████████████████████████▀
        ▀██████████████████████▀
           ▀▀▀████████████▀▀▀
.
.....
.....
.....
.....
.....
.....





Afrikoin (OP)
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1540
Merit: 1003


alan watts is all you need


View Profile
October 29, 2015, 01:19:07 PM
 #313

David Alcindor

on https://www.tradingview.com/chat/?utm_content=bufferb0fb2&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer#nG7jDhaJhHHw8Vya


"I have no doubt that $BTC is setting itself up for a LONG-TERM growth. No question about it.

HOWEVER, there is a lot of slaughtering that will have to occur before that. That means decapitating bears with a temporary rally, then chopping off hooves with a counter-trend decline ... This first up, then down, then finally up is the pathway I envisage.

Banks - and the institutional traders that act on their behalves - live at such atmospheric scale that is psychologically not inhabitable for the retail trader who depends on gregarious nurturing and much shorter twitches of emotional activities.

"They" own this and other markets, and they will pass favorable laws and regulations that will tip the advantage to the "house"."



              ▄▄▄██████▄▄▄
          ▄██████████████████▄
       ▄████████████████████████▄
 ▄▄  ▄████████████████████████████▄
███████████████████████████████████▄
 ▀▀█████████████████████████████████▄
   ██████████████████████████████████
   ██████████████████████████████████
   ██████████████████████████████████
   ██████████████████████████████████
   ▀████████████████████████████████▀
    ▀██████████████████████████████▀
     ▀▀██████████████████████████▀
        ▀██████████████████████▀
           ▀▀▀████████████▀▀▀
.
.....
.....
.....
.....
.....
.....





Afrikoin (OP)
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1540
Merit: 1003


alan watts is all you need


View Profile
October 29, 2015, 02:31:21 PM
 #314




              ▄▄▄██████▄▄▄
          ▄██████████████████▄
       ▄████████████████████████▄
 ▄▄  ▄████████████████████████████▄
███████████████████████████████████▄
 ▀▀█████████████████████████████████▄
   ██████████████████████████████████
   ██████████████████████████████████
   ██████████████████████████████████
   ██████████████████████████████████
   ▀████████████████████████████████▀
    ▀██████████████████████████████▀
     ▀▀██████████████████████████▀
        ▀██████████████████████▀
           ▀▀▀████████████▀▀▀
.
.....
.....
.....
.....
.....
.....





Afrikoin (OP)
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1540
Merit: 1003


alan watts is all you need


View Profile
October 29, 2015, 07:51:54 PM
 #315

ECB: "Roots Of Bitcoin Can Be Found In The Austrian School Of Economics"

Jon Matonis

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jonmatonis/2012/11/03/ecb-roots-of-bitcoin-can-be-found-in-the-austrian-school-of-economics/



              ▄▄▄██████▄▄▄
          ▄██████████████████▄
       ▄████████████████████████▄
 ▄▄  ▄████████████████████████████▄
███████████████████████████████████▄
 ▀▀█████████████████████████████████▄
   ██████████████████████████████████
   ██████████████████████████████████
   ██████████████████████████████████
   ██████████████████████████████████
   ▀████████████████████████████████▀
    ▀██████████████████████████████▀
     ▀▀██████████████████████████▀
        ▀██████████████████████▀
           ▀▀▀████████████▀▀▀
.
.....
.....
.....
.....
.....
.....





Afrikoin (OP)
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1540
Merit: 1003


alan watts is all you need


View Profile
October 29, 2015, 11:52:16 PM
 #316




              ▄▄▄██████▄▄▄
          ▄██████████████████▄
       ▄████████████████████████▄
 ▄▄  ▄████████████████████████████▄
███████████████████████████████████▄
 ▀▀█████████████████████████████████▄
   ██████████████████████████████████
   ██████████████████████████████████
   ██████████████████████████████████
   ██████████████████████████████████
   ▀████████████████████████████████▀
    ▀██████████████████████████████▀
     ▀▀██████████████████████████▀
        ▀██████████████████████▀
           ▀▀▀████████████▀▀▀
.
.....
.....
.....
.....
.....
.....





Afrikoin (OP)
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1540
Merit: 1003


alan watts is all you need


View Profile
October 30, 2015, 08:47:41 AM
 #317

""Holy shit - if this keeps on, price will hit RSI resistance on the WEEKLY. That hasn't happened since the last bubble. That that will be some serious ass resistance.

I have always thought that this market and the last bubble was much like the massive 2011 bubble up to $32. I don't view the April 2013 or Nov. 2013 bubbles as separate events - just one giant bubble. If you think about that year as a giant bubble, and and 2011 as a giant bubble, I think it provides a clearer picture. Liquidity is always increasing with price, so it takes more and more time and effort to move the price. That is a major factor as to why there was a pause in the summer of 2013. Think of liquidity / market cap as "stretching out" or "zooming in" or "magnifying" everything in the market. Movement takes more money, more time, and more movement (think fractals) to occur.

As a result, I've always looked back to the 2011 aftermath for guidance - that's why i never liked to look at the "bubblewatch" etc. because they were looking at tiny microcosms and defining a single period as separate discrete events. My thought process about that:

  1  It took almost 2 years to reach previous highs ($32). That was at a time when there was no liquidity in the market at all. Bitcoin was like $5. It's been about 2 years since the $1200 day, and I'd expect another couple of years. I'm not wed to this idea and it's not my strongest conviction, but it's my best guess. My counter argument here would be that BTC will move less from trading / store of value and more to rails use-cases, exploding usership and demand, which would make the previous comparison irrelevant anyway. But all things equal and adoption occurring marginally, I don't expect $1,000 bitcoins again for a few years.

   2 There were 2 run-ups with bubble-like behavior following the 2011 peak.



 These were catalysts to restore some equilibrium in the market. Ironically, I think that these bubbles were necessary for price discovery. Normally, bubbles damage price discovery because there are yawning chasms of uncertainty where price hasn't bounced around. However, back then (and i think now), BTC corrected hard and floated too low for too long - eventually the market agreed that price should be substantially higher. This happened once, led to another softer bubble and stability.

   3 I'd expect that this is following that first bottoming out period - price may jump up to $500 and then hover around $300 for a while. Repeat jump to $900 and then hover around $700 for a while. Bubble still far away.

So i don't think the exact motions will be comparable - you'd need to look at the 2011 daily to compare it to the current weekly to take into account differences in liquidity and time that i mentioned - and i think that's a fool's errand anyway. Nothing is ever going to be exactly the same. But i think the similarities are striking.

TL;DR: bitcoin had 2 bubbles: 2011 and 2013.""





              ▄▄▄██████▄▄▄
          ▄██████████████████▄
       ▄████████████████████████▄
 ▄▄  ▄████████████████████████████▄
███████████████████████████████████▄
 ▀▀█████████████████████████████████▄
   ██████████████████████████████████
   ██████████████████████████████████
   ██████████████████████████████████
   ██████████████████████████████████
   ▀████████████████████████████████▀
    ▀██████████████████████████████▀
     ▀▀██████████████████████████▀
        ▀██████████████████████▀
           ▀▀▀████████████▀▀▀
.
.....
.....
.....
.....
.....
.....





Afrikoin (OP)
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1540
Merit: 1003


alan watts is all you need


View Profile
October 30, 2015, 08:53:38 AM
 #318




              ▄▄▄██████▄▄▄
          ▄██████████████████▄
       ▄████████████████████████▄
 ▄▄  ▄████████████████████████████▄
███████████████████████████████████▄
 ▀▀█████████████████████████████████▄
   ██████████████████████████████████
   ██████████████████████████████████
   ██████████████████████████████████
   ██████████████████████████████████
   ▀████████████████████████████████▀
    ▀██████████████████████████████▀
     ▀▀██████████████████████████▀
        ▀██████████████████████▀
           ▀▀▀████████████▀▀▀
.
.....
.....
.....
.....
.....
.....





Afrikoin (OP)
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1540
Merit: 1003


alan watts is all you need


View Profile
October 30, 2015, 08:57:05 AM
 #319

I'm in the camp that thinks we're still in a larger correction - similar to October2014, and June 2014.

I could be wrong, but it helps for perspective.




              ▄▄▄██████▄▄▄
          ▄██████████████████▄
       ▄████████████████████████▄
 ▄▄  ▄████████████████████████████▄
███████████████████████████████████▄
 ▀▀█████████████████████████████████▄
   ██████████████████████████████████
   ██████████████████████████████████
   ██████████████████████████████████
   ██████████████████████████████████
   ▀████████████████████████████████▀
    ▀██████████████████████████████▀
     ▀▀██████████████████████████▀
        ▀██████████████████████▀
           ▀▀▀████████████▀▀▀
.
.....
.....
.....
.....
.....
.....





8up
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 618
Merit: 500



View Profile
October 30, 2015, 09:02:33 AM
 #320

I'm in the camp that thinks we're still in a larger correction - similar to October2014, and June 2014.

I could be wrong, but it helps for perspective.



What makes me skeptical is the huge volume of the last move.
Everything else speaks for further correction (I think this means stability) after reaching a new plateau at ~$300

Always wrong until not.
Pages: « 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 [16] 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 ... 198 »
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!