""Holy shit - if this keeps on, price will hit RSI resistance on the WEEKLY. That hasn't happened since the last bubble. That that will be some serious ass resistance.
I have always thought that this market and the last bubble was much like the massive 2011 bubble up to $32. I don't view the April 2013 or Nov. 2013 bubbles as separate events - just one giant bubble. If you think about that year as a giant bubble, and and 2011 as a giant bubble, I think it provides a clearer picture. Liquidity is always increasing with price, so it takes more and more time and effort to move the price. That is a major factor as to why there was a pause in the summer of 2013. Think of liquidity / market cap as "stretching out" or "zooming in" or "magnifying" everything in the market. Movement takes more money, more time, and more movement (think fractals) to occur.
As a result, I've always looked back to the 2011 aftermath for guidance - that's why i never liked to look at the "bubblewatch" etc. because they were looking at tiny microcosms and defining a single period as separate discrete events. My thought process about that:
1 It took almost 2 years to reach previous highs ($32). That was at a time when there was no liquidity in the market at all. Bitcoin was like $5. It's been about 2 years since the $1200 day, and I'd expect another couple of years. I'm not wed to this idea and it's not my strongest conviction, but it's my best guess. My counter argument here would be that BTC will move less from trading / store of value and more to rails use-cases, exploding usership and demand, which would make the previous comparison irrelevant anyway. But all things equal and adoption occurring marginally, I don't expect $1,000 bitcoins again for a few years.
2 There were 2 run-ups with bubble-like behavior following the 2011 peak.
These were catalysts to restore some equilibrium in the market. Ironically, I think that these bubbles were necessary for price discovery. Normally, bubbles damage price discovery because there are yawning chasms of uncertainty where price hasn't bounced around. However, back then (and i think now), BTC corrected hard and floated too low for too long - eventually the market agreed that price should be substantially higher. This happened once, led to another softer bubble and stability.
3 I'd expect that this is following that first bottoming out period - price may jump up to $500 and then hover around $300 for a while. Repeat jump to $900 and then hover around $700 for a while. Bubble still far away.
So i don't think the exact motions will be comparable - you'd need to look at the 2011 daily to compare it to the current weekly to take into account differences in liquidity and time that i mentioned - and i think that's a fool's errand anyway. Nothing is ever going to be exactly the same. But i think the similarities are striking.
TL;DR: bitcoin had 2 bubbles: 2011 and 2013.""
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