Critical Levels - EW analysis

[BTCtrader71]

Could we be on the upswing of the second shoulder of a head and shoulders pattern spanning most of 2015?

First shoulder peaked at about $300 in early March 2015.

Head peaked at about $312 in July 2015.

Expectation of peak of second shoulder at around $300 in November.

[Afrikoin]

Updated chart from before with the latest price movements. You can also find it in the comments of the article I posted yesterday, BTCUSD Short Term Corrective Rally.

Update on the recent jump to $267 which is following the count in the OP as a Wave 3 of C, hitting the 3.618 extension of Wave 1. We should expect a short but sharp retrace before the last move up to ~$274 as the top of the entire corrective move. Stay tuned for more.

Sign me up for your thread!

[eboard10]

Updated chart from before with the latest price movements. You can also find it in the comments of the article I posted yesterday, BTCUSD Short Term Corrective Rally.

Update on the recent jump to $267 which is following the count in the OP as a Wave 3 of C, hitting the 3.618 extension of Wave 1. We should expect a short but sharp retrace before the last move up to ~$274 as the top of the entire corrective move. Stay tuned for more.

Sign me up for your thread!

Lol, just realised that my (A) and (B) should be placed instead of A and B in my chart, but that doesn't affect the count that is currently playing out. Will update over the weekend. Feel free to check my page but I'll post the charts on here as well. I'm still a novice though, so I do make mistakes.

[Afrikoin]

Here is a chart from David Alcindor asserting move up from low $200s as wave 4 correction

my thread https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1161207.new#new

[Afrikoin]

My take on the current price movement. The first fib levels represent the extension of Wave (A) to estimate levels for Wave (C). The second scale represents the extension of Wave 1 of C to estimate the levels for Wave 5 of C. It's possible that Wave (C) will be topping near the $273 mark as the 1.618 extension of Wave (A), assuming my count is valid.

Thanks for reviving this thread

Q: How is this pattern different from a similar pattern in June/july?

recall

The pattern is slightly different but similar overall. We are looking at corrective patterns in both cases.

last time you said it was a 2, and it turned out not to be.

Podyx posted on Nights watch about your count being invalidated. Is it?

[SebastianJu]

he declared bankruptcy.

That is not true. I spoke with chessnut lately he is doing fine. This speculation forum tired him out.

That seems correct to me. I saw him on friday on the tradewave forex chat. Guess he was busy exploiting the price moves of EURUSD.

[Afrikoin]

Hi EWers

I love this thread and all the EW stuff.

Since Chessnut is laying low for a while, I'm inviting EWers who posted charts to drop their charts and conversation on https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1161207.new#new

I haven't seen a solid EW thread around on speculation (maybe I'm not looking hard enough). Would like to see EW analysis. there is a need for one.

Come roost at https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1161207.new#new

[chessnut]

This is a significant area for a short term reversal on the 4H, with ~268~ a fair target in any case as a iv wave area.



This impulse could be 1 or A which we could use to play the move on breakdown or better w2 form.

[meh32123]

Welcome back :-)

[Afrikoin]

Welcome back :-)

same here. good to have you back chessnut. We missed you

[Fakhoury]

Welcome back :-)

I missed you chessnut, hope you are doing well buddy

[chessnut]

despite the false breakdown through the primary trendline this is a more satisfying count having had a clear wave v termination.

[JustAnotherSheep]

Any chance the impulse up could've been C as red count below (or alternatively 3, if the pictured A is somehow counted as an impulse)?



Personally a bit doubtful of that as the B looks too much like an impulse down, probably some species of truncated 5.

[notme]

Nice try guys, guess again.

[chessnut]

probably an extension of sorts happening. will have to wait for more form before we can say what's really going on.

[chessnut]

this is it.......it is wave 5. minimum local target 1880 for the ED but medium term tgt is still the wave 4 area.... 1760 or so. ED are sharp and fast to resolve.

[SmoothCurves]

this is it.......it is wave 5. minimum local target 1880 for the ED but medium term tgt is still the wave 4 area.... 1760 or so. ED are sharp and fast to resolve.

Is the appropriate response to buy the dip?

[grahvity]

David Alcindor updated:



Here is the most BULLISH scenario I can come up with:

1 - First, it is nearly guaranted that we are in a prolong correction, hence the large, encompassing A-B-C pattern.

2 - Projection of such pattern (not in terms of Elliott Wave, but simply in terms of geometry), Wave-C projection off of Wave-B defines 363.66 as pan-ultimate top for this correction ... Near December 2015.

3 - The two most recent channels reflect R.N. Elliott channel methodology ... Hence, we just completed an Intermediate Wave-(3), whereas Intermediate Wave-(4) should be under development at this time.

4 - Based on same R. N. Elliott channel construction, the secondary channel (GREEN) points to a higher border validation at/near 363.66.

5 - Bad news is that from a total Wave, these broad sweeping correction will tend to return o the origin of Wave-A ... Interestingly, this fits the Predictive/Forecasting Model's outer most tolerable WL value = 152.72, defined this past SEP 2015.

So, as mentioned before, the only analyses are revealing at the H4 levels and above, offering a broad "bird'seye view" of what the Bitcoin trader will HAVE TO endure, not only in terms of adverse excursion if ever SHORT, but in counter-trend threat if taking a long position, especially near the current yet-to-define top.

Best,

David Alcindor

Sauce: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/vTWNd0Qk-BTCUSD-bitstamp-Stomped-Mulls-Decline-bitcoin-BTC-forex/

[eboard10]

David Alcindor's count doesn't make much sense tbh.

Could be an expanding B-wave triangle if we cross the previous $318 top.

[SmoothCurves]

David Alcindor updated:



Here is the most BULLISH scenario I can come up with:

1 - First, it is nearly guaranted that we are in a prolong correction, hence the large, encompassing A-B-C pattern.

2 - Projection of such pattern (not in terms of Elliott Wave, but simply in terms of geometry), Wave-C projection off of Wave-B defines 363.66 as pan-ultimate top for this correction ... Near December 2015.

3 - The two most recent channels reflect R.N. Elliott channel methodology ... Hence, we just completed an Intermediate Wave-(3), whereas Intermediate Wave-(4) should be under development at this time.

4 - Based on same R. N. Elliott channel construction, the secondary channel (GREEN) points to a higher border validation at/near 363.66.

5 - Bad news is that from a total Wave, these broad sweeping correction will tend to return o the origin of Wave-A ... Interestingly, this fits the Predictive/Forecasting Model's outer most tolerable WL value = 152.72, defined this past SEP 2015.

So, as mentioned before, the only analyses are revealing at the H4 levels and above, offering a broad "bird'seye view" of what the Bitcoin trader will HAVE TO endure, not only in terms of adverse excursion if ever SHORT, but in counter-trend threat if taking a long position, especially near the current yet-to-define top.

Best,

David Alcindor

Sauce: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/vTWNd0Qk-BTCUSD-bitstamp-Stomped-Mulls-Decline-bitcoin-BTC-forex/

LOL at $152 prices. I hope he's right, I would buy the heck out of that.