Nights Watch by Afrikoin

[Tzupy]

6h PSAR flipped to bearish on western exchanges, but not yet in China.

Update: flipped in China too, although BTCChina is a bit more bearish that Huobi or OKCoin.
Bitfinex managed to flip the 1d PSAR to bearish, nice!

Update2:daily PSAR flipped at BTCChina too, picture below to show the importance.

[hdbuck]

waiting for daily red macd, then support testing targets: 370 - 320

[afbitcoins]

Update to the bullish fork Im monitoring



Bitcoin didnt manage to retest the midline but is finding support on next line down. In short term might go down but trend still looks up to me. Might be painting the dead cat bounce (bear trap) Ive expected for a while

[Afrikoin]

Possible fractal in play #BTC

https://twitter.com/AngeloBTC/status/678734498754789376

[Afrikoin]

Bitcoin Technical Analysis - 25

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pONjY0hTU-Q&feature=youtu.be

[Afrikoin]

Two counts I'm seeing at the moment, one pushing the price up, the other down.

As the triangle is going to end soon, we should see some price movement in the next hours/day.

[suda123]

Possible fractal in play #BTC

https://twitter.com/AngeloBTC/status/678734498754789376

Oooooooooooooooooooo

[Afrikoin]

"price of bitcoin could test its 2013 highs of above $1,100 next year and then pick up speed to rise to $4,400 by the end of 2017"

Record highs predicted for bitcoin in 2016 as new supply halves:

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-markets-bitcoin-analysis-idUSKBN0U60GM20151223?utm_source=twitter

[Afrikoin]

"unforgeable bearer tokens are the main innovation of bitcoin, the full implications of secure tokenisation seed a new paradigm for finance."

aDAM BACK

https://twitter.com/adam3us/status/676228503013036032

[Igluenza]

Good stuff! :-)

[Afrikoin]

Let's Talk Bitcoin! #272 - Exciting Possibilities

https://letstalkbitcoin.com/blog/post/lets-talk-bitcoin-272-exciting-possibilities

This time we'll hear from...

    Eric Lombrozo talks about the current reality behind Bitcoin Full nodes and some of his ideas for improving the situation in a talk called "Incentives for Full Nodes"
    Peter Todd talks about the motivations and rationale behind Proof of Work in a talk called "The Good, Bad and Ugly of Proof of Work"

[Afrikoin]

Zimbabwe to adopt Chinese yuan as legal currency after debt cancellation

In an unprecedented move that signals China’s growing global influence, Zimbabwe has announced that it will adopt the Chinese currency as legal tender.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/international-business/african-and-mideast-business/zimbabwe-to-adopt-chinese-yuan-as-legal-currency-after-debt-cancellation/article27914154/?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=Referrer:+Social+Network+/+Media&utm_campaign=Shared+Web+Article+Links

[Afrikoin]

Switzerland to vote on banning banks from creating money

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11999966/Switzerland-to-vote-on-banning-banks-from-creating-money.html

 The SNB was established in 1891, with exclusive power to mint coins and issue Swiss banknotes.

But over 90pc of money in circulation in Switzerland now exists in the form "electronic" cash created by private banks, rather than the central bank.

 "Due to the emergence of electronic payment transactions, banks have regained the opportunity to create their own money," said the Swiss Sovereign Money campaign.

"The decision taken by the people in 1891 has fallen into oblivion."

[Afrikoin]

Switzerland to vote on banning banks from creating money

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11999966/Switzerland-to-vote-on-banning-banks-from-creating-money.html

 The SNB was established in 1891, with exclusive power to mint coins and issue Swiss banknotes.

But over 90pc of money in circulation in Switzerland now exists in the form "electronic" cash created by private banks, rather than the central bank.

 "Due to the emergence of electronic payment transactions, banks have regained the opportunity to create their own money," said the Swiss Sovereign Money campaign.

"The decision taken by the people in 1891 has fallen into oblivion."

bonus,

great comments!

[Afrikoin]

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/qQnWu9Wx-BTCUSD-POSSIBLE-CYCLE-COMPLETION-WITH-LIMITED-UPSIDE/#tc268905

IvoZ

Hello DanV, has continuous uptrent in the recent days and overshoot fo your targets changed everything in your opinion in the main chart? Do you still expect large drops incoming?


DanV

Thank you for your question. Not entirely sure what you are seeking from me nor if you are simply wishing to see if I will ever change my view.

First of all let be absolutely clear. I have not inherent to agenda nor wish necessarily wish to see the price of Bitcoin's decline or will it just because I might say so. Since I get the feeling from several questions and my interaction with others that leaqds me to suspect that many feel that no matter what, I will always suggest that the price will decline.

So in my answer to the above, forgetting that this is a Bitcoin (and all the competing sentiments I observe amongst the Bitcoin community) and taking this as purely a financial instrument (which in the minds of many clearly it is not and I have no issue with that), and looking at the price action since Nov 2013 high, it seems that we have a zigzag decline resulting in Jan 2015 low. Ordinarily by this corection, I could conclude that overall correction is complete. If this was the case however, you would at least look for 5 wave impulsive move of the Jan 2015 low based on EW principle. Many analysts and traders feel that the strong rally we have experienced is the evident 5 wave move I should be looking for.

However I cannot see that being the case, nor has anyone yet satisfactorily shown me the valid wave counts. So if we do not have the 5 wave impulsive move of the Jan 2015 low, then in my view it seems that whatever it is, it's a part of corrective move of the decline from Nov 2013 - Jan 2015. Now this could either be a zigzag or some sort of triangle or other combination of moves to the upside, even if this results in a price moving much higher ie, 700+ but on completion would likely result in eventually dropping back towards Jan 2015 low.

Alternatively, and it is very speculative view, that we might see a massive contracting triangle which includes the price decline from Nov 2013 high in the form of 3-3-3-3-3 configuration. In this event whilst we will continue to move in up & down cycle with each contracting but consisting of 3 swings. In this event it has a long way to go before it is completed but at least the lowest swing of pattern formed in Jan 2015 will be the lasting low.

Now if you are realistic, I don't think anyone in their right minds could say with 100% certainty which of the eventualities will be true. I am not aware of any method which can say that the final low is in. Only time will tell.

So in that context, I am open to both possibilities that final low is in place or that we are retracing the decline from Nov 2013 high to Jan 2015 with final low is yet to form.

This might not be the answer you are looking for nor will it assist you or anyone who might feel that they wish to know where is the absolute low. However, no matter how may times I am asked, I cannot add any more than above and which in various forms, I have already expressed before.

The chart below, is only intended to give you some ideas of possible outcome based on EW principles as likely patterns in this overall juncture. In deed there may be some other permutation or combination of them, I cannot reasonably envisage nor be able to show as the chart will become just jungle of lines. But hope it will illustrate both the likely complexity and the possibilities that the final low is yet in the future.

[RyNinDaCleM]

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/qQnWu9Wx-BTCUSD-POSSIBLE-CYCLE-COMPLETION-WITH-LIMITED-UPSIDE/#tc268905

IvoZ

Hello DanV, has continuous uptrent in the recent days and overshoot fo your targets changed everything in your opinion in the main chart? Do you still expect large drops incoming?


DanV

Thank you for your question. Not entirely sure what you are seeking from me nor if you are simply wishing to see if I will ever change my view.

First of all let be absolutely clear. I have not inherent to agenda nor wish necessarily wish to see the price of Bitcoin's decline or will it just because I might say so. Since I get the feeling from several questions and my interaction with others that leaqds me to suspect that many feel that no matter what, I will always suggest that the price will decline.

So in my answer to the above, forgetting that this is a Bitcoin (and all the competing sentiments I observe amongst the Bitcoin community) and taking this as purely a financial instrument (which in the minds of many clearly it is not and I have no issue with that), and looking at the price action since Nov 2013 high, it seems that we have a zigzag decline resulting in Jan 2015 low. Ordinarily by this corection, I could conclude that overall correction is complete. If this was the case however, you would at least look for 5 wave impulsive move of the Jan 2015 low based on EW principle. Many analysts and traders feel that the strong rally we have experienced is the evident 5 wave move I should be looking for.

However I cannot see that being the case, nor has anyone yet satisfactorily shown me the valid wave counts. So if we do not have the 5 wave impulsive move of the Jan 2015 low, then in my view it seems that whatever it is, it's a part of corrective move of the decline from Nov 2013 - Jan 2015. Now this could either be a zigzag or some sort of triangle or other combination of moves to the upside, even if this results in a price moving much higher ie, 700+ but on completion would likely result in eventually dropping back towards Jan 2015 low.

Alternatively, and it is very speculative view, that we might see a massive contracting triangle which includes the price decline from Nov 2013 high in the form of 3-3-3-3-3 configuration. In this event whilst we will continue to move in up & down cycle with each contracting but consisting of 3 swings. In this event it has a long way to go before it is completed but at least the lowest swing of pattern formed in Jan 2015 will be the lasting low.

Now if you are realistic, I don't think anyone in their right minds could say with 100% certainty which of the eventualities will be true. I am not aware of any method which can say that the final low is in. Only time will tell.

So in that context, I am open to both possibilities that final low is in place or that we are retracing the decline from Nov 2013 high to Jan 2015 with final low is yet to form.

This might not be the answer you are looking for nor will it assist you or anyone who might feel that they wish to know where is the absolute low. However, no matter how may times I am asked, I cannot add any more than above and which in various forms, I have already expressed before.

The chart below, is only intended to give you some ideas of possible outcome based on EW principles as likely patterns in this overall juncture. In deed there may be some other permutation or combination of them, I cannot reasonably envisage nor be able to show as the chart will become just jungle of lines. But hope it will illustrate both the likely complexity and the possibilities that the final low is yet in the future.

Thanks for posting this Afrikoin! While I often have an issue having the same outlook as Dan since in his shorter term charts, he is often not just wrong, but very wrong, I do share his longer term outlook here. That was a thoughtful post and echos my thoughts. It is true that there is no clear impulsive move from the January low without coming up with the most rare and ridiculous counts offered in EW -The expanding diagonal. Something that I believe in far less than the diagonal idea presented in Luc's thread (the one that I spoke of in a linked post a couple of pages back in this thread). I just don't see it.

[Afrikoin]

Lightning Network Skepticism

https://chrispacia.wordpress.com/2015/12/23/lightning-network-skepticism/

Discussion of same on hacker news

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10788550

[brg444]

Lightning Network Skepticism

https://chrispacia.wordpress.com/2015/12/23/lightning-network-skepticism/

Discussion of same on hacker news

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10788550

TL;DR

A couple of ignorant trolls are having trouble understanding how Lightning Network operates and therefore propose it's broken.

[RoadTrain]

Lightning Network Skepticism

https://chrispacia.wordpress.com/2015/12/23/lightning-network-skepticism/

Discussion of same on hacker news

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10788550

TL;DR

A couple of ignorant trolls are having trouble understanding how Lightning Network operates and therefore propose it's broken.

Couldn't be more true, I was getting a severe facepalm when reading some comments there. Really sorry for the time Joseph and Mark spent there.

[Afrikoin]

https://www.tradingview.com/x/pIS9jUMv/





See that big massive purple M. That is a big massive confirmed bear M, and if you like, also a double top to the $502 high. Such bearish market structure is not to be ignored. Don't allowed yourself to buy into any of the retarded bull talk on this forum. This is not a buying opportunity, unless you are an ace day trader who knows precisely when you are gonna dump your BTC. Trend is your Friend. Weekly Chart is still a bull, but fuck trading of the weekly trend. come in a bit closer and things looking a bit less rosy, and certainly the 4Hr trend is firmly bear.

Trend is bear, Daily mom are (were) maxed out, and will now be looking to give the floor some more attention, and that Big M is a very strong market signal telling you all you need to know about what lies ahead for this market.

When/If BTC hits the Red Box, then start looking for shorts......this will be easier said than done, as I imagine when/if BTC gets up there, Pro Traders will be over it like a rash, and shorting the fuck out of BTC. and more cautious/less skilled traders will be unlikely to get the market structure that we like, in the trade location that we like.

Trend is your friend, correct.  The trend since January is up.  Short term there may be some losses, but shorting this close to halving could be disastrous.  Good luck!!!