ACTUAL Butterfly Labs PCB pics!

[Korbman]

I ask, because it means that out of the 12,000 electronic orders...very few that are actually valid. I thought they were well into the 6,000 thousand range. But looking over different combos, I find it hard to believe that there are many valid orders. I expected many mini-rigs to be sold since customer service stated most of their customers were supposedly not front bitcointalk.org or any other forums. (?)

Oh goodness no. They have a preorder count of maybe 300 here on the forums, but they've noted before that total preorders are about double what we see here. Call it 600-700 orders, with the majority being Jalapenos and Singles.

And I know veerrryyy few people able to drop $30k on a dime for a Mini Rig. Out of the many thousands of BTC users, only a handful will be throwing down cash for them (including myself if my Fund raises the capital )

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[SgtSpike]

By the way, the first chip run for BFL is allegedly 20,000 chips.

20,000 ASIC chips can make

20k / 8 = 2,500 Single SC chips.
20k / ? = ?,??? Little SC chips.
20k / 1 = 20,000 Jalapenos.
20k / 200 = 100 Mini-rigs.

Those are the totals if a batch of 20,000 are divided above as if the batch were used exclusively for one type.

Question: How does one go about fulfilling 12,000 order ID's? Lets assume there are less than 6,000 valid orders. (no clue how many are multiple units in each order...so lets assume it makes up to 6,000 assorted units. Some will order several units while others only 1 unit.)

How does one go about fulfilling that many orders with only 20k ASIC chips? Anyone know how many chips will go into each little single SC?

The Little SC will be 4 chips (logically, since each chip produces 7.5GH/s, and they will be 30GH/s units).

But why are you asking this question?  Josh already stated that the 20k chips was more than enough to fulfill all current preorders (as of a couple of weeks ago)... so the existing orders are some combination of the above units, but not enough to use up 20k chips.

I ask, because it means that out of the 12,000 electronic orders...very few that are actually valid. I thought they were well into the 6,000 thousand range. But looking over different combos, I find it hard to believe that there are many valid orders. I expected many mini-rigs to be sold since customer service stated most of their customers were supposedly not front bitcointalk.org or any other forums. (?)

Ah, ok.  Yes, very few of the orders are valid.  I would guess maybe 1,000 orders.  Just my personal opinion/hunch.

[michaelmclees]

Right.  This is due to curious people testing out the order button to see how many BTC they'd need to spend to make an order.  So people would try to time their order to the market and in the process they'd create 20 false orders.

[PuertoLibre]

I ask, because it means that out of the 12,000 electronic orders...very few that are actually valid. I thought they were well into the 6,000 thousand range. But looking over different combos, I find it hard to believe that there are many valid orders. I expected many mini-rigs to be sold since customer service stated most of their customers were supposedly not front bitcointalk.org or any other forums. (?)

Oh goodness no. They have a preorder count of maybe 300 here on the forums, but they've noted before that total preorders are about double what we see here. Call it 600-700 orders, with the majority being Jalapenos and Singles.

And I know veerrryyy few people able to drop $30k on a dime for a Mini Rig. Out of the many thousands of BTC users, only a handful will be throwing down cash for them (including myself if my Fund raises the capital )

Then I am deeply confused....

I thought I saw one representative say they had several hundred of each type. (Some post somewhere on BitcoinTalk or on their company forum (don't remember where).

I thought they were the biggest? If they only have 600 or 700 (or anywhere near that range) then why isn't Tom (of bASIC) considered the largest vendor? Hopefully someone can straighten me out as I have seemingly lost the plot and the narrative I kept seeing touted around....

[SgtSpike]

I ask, because it means that out of the 12,000 electronic orders...very few that are actually valid. I thought they were well into the 6,000 thousand range. But looking over different combos, I find it hard to believe that there are many valid orders. I expected many mini-rigs to be sold since customer service stated most of their customers were supposedly not front bitcointalk.org or any other forums. (?)

Oh goodness no. They have a preorder count of maybe 300 here on the forums, but they've noted before that total preorders are about double what we see here. Call it 600-700 orders, with the majority being Jalapenos and Singles.

And I know veerrryyy few people able to drop $30k on a dime for a Mini Rig. Out of the many thousands of BTC users, only a handful will be throwing down cash for them (including myself if my Fund raises the capital )

Then I am deeply confused....

I thought I saw one representative say they had several hundred of each type. (Some post somewhere on BitcoinTalk or on their company forum (don't remember where).

I thought they were the biggest? If they only have 600 or 700 (or anywhere near that range) then why isn't Tom (of bASIC) considered the largest vendor? Hopefully someone can straighten me out as I have seemingly lost the plot and the narrative I kept seeing touted around....

How many units on preorder does Tom have?

[crazyates]

How many units on preorder does Tom have?

He had about 900 orders as of about 2 1/2 weeks ago. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=79637.msg1292414#msg1292414

However, I think BFL has a lot more than 600-700 orders. That would mean that only 1 in 20 orders actually got paid. I'm thinking it's 4-5x that amount. About a month ago, they said there were upwards of 100TH/s in pre-orders.

[SgtSpike]

How many units on preorder does Tom have?

He had about 900 orders as of about 2 1/2 weeks ago. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=79637.msg1292414#msg1292414

However, I think BFL has a lot more than 600-700 orders. That would mean that only 1 in 20 orders actually got paid. I'm thinking it's 4-5x that amount. About a month ago, they said there were upwards of 100TH/s in pre-orders.

So maybe it would be better to compare pre-sold TH/s then.  Tom doesn't have minirigs...  If 50 of those BFL orders are minirigs, that's 75+TH/s right there.  It wouldn't take much to make 600-700 orders into more than 100TH/s, depending on what each of those orders was for.

It's really useless speculation anyway.  Who cares how many orders there are?  What matters is how many TH/s were ordered, and (to a lesser extent), how much revenue those sales brought in to each of the companies.

[kano]

...
Edit: I want to point out that none of the ASIC manufacturers have shown a prototype, and all have taken full up-front payment for preorders. The only company that has been open about their progress is BlockErupter(Asicminer), but they've run aground with GLBSE now. Also, I'm not aware what is happening on the Avalon mailing list, but looking at Ngzhang's track-record, I'd be amazed if they were not open regarding their progress as well as the risks associated.
...

Well - actually - Tom did say they had already done a prototype - but didn't show it.
That was his first announcement of bASIC back in September:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=79637.msg1157524#msg1157524
(stating Nov/Dec delivery)

and the post mentioning the prototype
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=79637.msg1157583#msg1157583

[Syke]

So maybe it would be better to compare pre-sold TH/s then.  Tom doesn't have minirigs...  If 50 of those BFL orders are minirigs, that's 75+TH/s right there.  It wouldn't take much to make 600-700 orders into more than 100TH/s, depending on what each of those orders was for.

It's really useless speculation anyway.  Who cares how many orders there are?  What matters is how many TH/s were ordered, and (to a lesser extent), how much revenue those sales brought in to each of the companies.

Right.

BFL: 20,000 chips in the first batch, maybe half of them go into Jalapenos for 4.5 GH/s and half into the other for 7.5 GH/s. We're looking at 120 TH/s preordered if they use every chip.

bASIC: 900 orders, also assume a 50/50 split between the 27 and 54 GH/s rigs. 36.45 TH/s total preordered.

BFL has roughly 3x the orders TH/s-wise as bASIC.

[kano]

So maybe it would be better to compare pre-sold TH/s then.  Tom doesn't have minirigs...  If 50 of those BFL orders are minirigs, that's 75+TH/s right there.  It wouldn't take much to make 600-700 orders into more than 100TH/s, depending on what each of those orders was for.

It's really useless speculation anyway.  Who cares how many orders there are?  What matters is how many TH/s were ordered, and (to a lesser extent), how much revenue those sales brought in to each of the companies.

..
bASIC: 900 orders, also assume a 50/50 split between the 27 and 54 GH/s rigs. 36.45 TH/s total preordered.
...

50/50 split is clearly not gonna be correct - I'd 'guess' it would be something like 90/10 since all the original orders were upgraded to 54 when he announced it.
Though even 75/25 puts that up to 42.5TH/s (not a big difference, but still a difference)

[crazyates]

So maybe it would be better to compare pre-sold TH/s then.  Tom doesn't have minirigs...  If 50 of those BFL orders are minirigs, that's 75+TH/s right there.  It wouldn't take much to make 600-700 orders into more than 100TH/s, depending on what each of those orders was for.

It's really useless speculation anyway.  Who cares how many orders there are?  What matters is how many TH/s were ordered, and (to a lesser extent), how much revenue those sales brought in to each of the companies.

Right.

BFL: 20,000 chips in the first batch, maybe half of them go into Jalapenos for 4.5 GH/s and half into the other for 7.5 GH/s. We're looking at 120 TH/s preordered if they use every chip.

bASIC: 900 orders, also assume a 50/50 split between the 27 and 54 GH/s rigs. 36.45 TH/s total preordered.

BFL has roughly 3x the orders TH/s-wise as bASIC.

I don't think half of all the chips are going to go into Jalapenos. There's a reason they started offering a "Little Single" upgrade from Jalapenos while still maintaining your place in line. Combined with the fact that they only use 1 chip instead of 8, I'd say it's a small percentage of their chips that will be in Jalapenos.

[Askit2]

Maybe I am thinking about this wrong but for each single traded in BFL will send out about 8 asic chips.
1 SC single =8
2 Little Singles likely = 8
8 Jalapenos = 8.

The rigs will throw off the numbers but knowing the raw trade ins are 8 chips per single trade in maybe would get closer to the right number.
Though the Mini rig trade ins will get more. I would expect every order to have at least 8 ASIC chips unless someone paid for a single jalapeno or a little single by itself.

[LiteBit]

I don't think half of all the chips are going to go into Jalapenos. There's a reason they started offering a "Little Single" upgrade from Jalapenos while still maintaining your place in line. Combined with the fact that they only use 1 chip instead of 8, I'd say it's a small percentage of their chips that will be in Jalapenos.

I agree with your logic on this.  They went ahead with an upgrade option while maintaining current spots in line.  Makes me think they're good for it.

[monstrs]

I dont think we can predict how those chips will be placed between units. There are still people trading in japalenos to something better.

[MrTeal]

I dont think we can predict how those chips will be placed between units. There are still people trading in japalenos to something better.

The easiest and probably most accurate way is to just look at the wait list thread and assume that's close to the total distribution.

[scrybe]

I dont think we can predict how those chips will be placed between units. There are still people trading in japalenos to something better.

Why bother?

Just assume they are shipping ~15,000 chips over the first 6-8 weeks and finishing the 20K batch within another month or so (close to worst case, all 20K ship by 3/1.) It does not matter if they are in Jally's or Mini-rigs at the macro level, just multiply by 7.5 for worst case.

What is more interesting to me is the actual execution, will they achieve faster shipping, or will it take until 6/1 to sell out of the initial 20K batch?

I'm also trying to factor in a 20% boost in performance for all those chips someafter release when overclocking becomes common or BFL releases faster clockspeed firmware. (500Mhz to 600Mhz) A second boost of 33% (800Mhz)  is likely as well, but I'm betting something will give before we hit 1Ghz for most customers.

[kano]

Well there is a relevance of chips <-> device coz it affects the difficulty.
The J'things produce a lot less GH/s per chip.

[monstrs]

Actually i would like to know if those ASICs will be overclockable? Its no problem to put some fan on them, if that means more GH/s. If they will, that could raise difficulty even more.

[2GOOD]

Actually i would like to know if those ASICs will be overclockable? Its no problem to put some fan on them, if that means more GH/s. If they will, that could raise difficulty even more.

AFAIK they will be at half speed ~500Mhz, so maybe with later firmware versions they will be.
IMO the more important question is would Jalapenos offer the possibility to put them at full speed i.e. 7.5Gh/s with proper power source and cooling.

[HotSwap]

Actually i would like to know if those ASICs will be overclockable? Its no problem to put some fan on them, if that means more GH/s. If they will, that could raise difficulty even more.

AFAIK they will be at half speed ~500Mhz, so maybe with later firmware versions they will be.
IMO the more important question is would Jalapenos offer the possibility to put them at full speed i.e. 7.5Gh/s with proper power source and cooling.

I dont see why this would not be possible, there is always a way around that...