Legendary one day?

[shorena]

Code:

Lincoln6Echo**[4]	1134	100.00%

[4] https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=29642

Something is wrong with his activity info.. ?

I have a small chance now as well.

You have an equal and Random chance .

Legendary:   Activity: the Legendary membergroup has no universal activity requirement.
                                You are guaranteed to become Legendary somewhere between 775 and 1030 activity,
                                but the exact point in this range at which you become Legendary is random per user.
                                Gets 5 gold coins under his name of which the last is half dark blue.

Did he delete lots of posts?  That is main thing I can think of that would have brought activity down.  

But to go from 1134 to 867 is a big drop.   But account is from June 25, 2011 so could have a high potential activity.

He didn't deleted the recent one's i guess but maybe the very old posts ? If it has 1050 potential then he is already a Legend.
(or) was a counting mistake ?

They never had that much activity, but they could have.

And, yes my chance is the same for every point of activity, but if you are at 1008 chances are higher than if you are at e.g. 784

[1714941207]

1714941207

[1714941207]

1714941207

[Heutenamos]

And, yes my chance is the same for every point of activity, but if you are at 1008 chances are higher than if you are at e.g. 784

No ,Randomness doesn't works like that. The only thing you could say is that a guy has highest probability when he is just one step closer to 1050 activity and he doesn't needs luck to become legendary then. It's absolute.

However, i get your point about the shorter the way the faster it is to achieve but you are neglecting the word "RANDOM" in this logic .

Edit: A guy with 1008 activity and you have the same probability to become Legendary cause it's random until 1050 activity is achieved.

[minifrij]

Edit: A guy with 1008 activity and you have the same probability to become Legendary cause it's random until 1050 activity is achieved.

Perhaps the words used are not the most correct, though the probability is certainly not the same. A person with a higher activity level has had all of the previous activity levels to become legendary, meaning that since there are a finite amount of them there is a better chance of it being the next one the higher their level, since there are fewer periods they can then achieve legendary in. Compared to someone like shorena, who since they have had one activity period so far where they could have hit it meaning that they could hit it in the many periods between their current activity and 1030 ( or whatever the limit is).

So, yes shorena does have the same chance as anyone else to hit Legendary, though it is more likely for someone with higher activity to hit it, the closer to the limit they are.

I hope that made sense, it's pretty early and I was typing that off the top of my head.

[mexxer-2]

Edit: A guy with 1008 activity and you have the same probability to become Legendary cause it's random until 1050 activity is achieved.

The definition of probability

Probability is the measure of the likelihood that an event will occur. Probability is quantified as a number between 0 and 1 (where 0 indicates impossibility and 1 indicates certainty). The higher the probability of an event, the more certain we are that the event will occur.

Going by your logic, flipping a coin , both sides should have a same probability of happening right? What would be the number?
Hint: Its 1/2

Now going the same way:
Hitting legendary and not hitting legendary can be considered as Heads and tails respectively.

Going a bit far now("-" signifies a range between numbers):
Hitting/not hitting legendary, at 775-817.5, (817.5)-(817.5+42.5) ,(817.5+42.5)- (817.5+42.5*2) , (817.5+42.5*3) and so on until 1052, can be considered as a side on a dice.
Now according to your logic, all of them have the same probability of hitting legendary, i.e 1/6 . Now all you have to do is complicate it by sho's calculations

Edit: Dang it, minifrij made a better explanation

[Heutenamos]

Random is very different from probability. what ever you guys are saying is just because there is a deadline of 1050 activity for legendary.
But i don't think anyone is going to have any extra chance until the last activity cycle.

If your logic is assumed to be true then why the less probability one's become Legendary sooner than more probability guys ? what is the point in having more probability while the other one with lesser prob.. wins the race ?

[Lauda]

Random is very different from probability.

There is no real thing such as random in the computer world, and thus the probability thing can and should be applied.

If your logic is assumed to be true then why the less probability one's become Legendary sooner than more probability guys ? what is the point in having more probability while the other one with lesser prob.. wins the race ?

Take for example gambling, sometimes people lose with a 90% chance and sometimes they win with 1%.

[mexxer-2]

Random is very different from probability. what ever you guys are saying is just because there is a deadline of 1050 activity for legendary.
But i don't think anyone is going to have any extra chance until the last activity cycle.

Please read, minifrij's and my(not recommended   ) explanation again.

what is the point in having more probability while the other one with lesser prob.. wins the race ?

Braggin rights? And hey, the other guys don't have any problem with having a small chance

[Heutenamos]

Random is very different from probability.

There is no real thing such as random in the computer world, and thus the probability thing can and should be applied.

If your logic is assumed to be true then why the less probability one's become Legendary sooner than more probability guys ? what is the point in having more probability while the other one with lesser prob.. wins the race ?

Take for example gambling, sometimes people lose with a 90% chance and sometimes they win with 1%.

Yeah i get that ,it's like getting a number say 99 out of 1-100 numbers and it's not the same when all the 98 numbers <99 are excluded (like the activity cycles passes on and people get close to 1050) then the probability increases and is 50%.

That is not random though. If it is then all are at the same level was my point.

[Lauda]

Yeah i get that ,it's like getting a number say 99 out of 1-100 numbers and it's not the same when all the 98 numbers <99 are excluded (like the activity cycles passes on and people get close to 1050) then the probability increases and is 50%.
That is not random though. If it is then all are at the same level was my point.

When we are talking about chances, they might be. When we are talking about the level of probability of an event occurring then they are not. Not sure how you can't understand probability in this case.

[Heutenamos]

Yeah i get that ,it's like getting a number say 99 out of 1-100 numbers and it's not the same when all the 98 numbers <99 are excluded (like the activity cycles passes on and people get close to 1050) then the probability increases and is 50%.
That is not random though. If it is then all are at the same level was my point.

When we are talking about chances, they might be. When we are talking about the level of probability of an event occurring then they are not. Not sure how you can't understand probability in this case.

yeah it's correct if we speak of probability and i get that. But i was saying about the randomness (which is unexpected and without any patterns/methods).

[Lauda]

yeah it's correct if we speak of probability and i get that. But i was saying about the randomness (which is unexpected and without any patterns/methods).

Well I think that is the point of Shorena's list; that's at least how I interpreted it from day 1. When I was talking about the non existence of randomness in computers, I actually meant something else. Given a set interval of numbers, where each number has the same chances of being chosen n amount of times, using a random function would result in some numbers being picked a lot more times than others.

[Heutenamos]

yeah it's correct if we speak of probability and i get that. But i was saying about the randomness (which is unexpected and without any patterns/methods).

Well I think that is the point of Shorena's list; that's at least how I interpreted it from day 1. When I was talking about the non existence of randomness in computers, I actually meant something else. Given a set interval of numbers, where each number has the same chances of being chosen n amount of times, using a random function would result in some numbers being picked a lot more times than others.

Correct and that is why there could be no probability when something is Random or is selected/opted randomly and vice versa.

[Lauda]

Correct and that is why there could be no probability when something is Random or is selected/opted randomly and vice versa.

However if we have a fixed set of possible intervals from a range of Y (let's say 0) to X (100), where X guarantees 100% that the event occur you can start talking about probability. You should not take the thread that seriously, everyone is mostly having fun in it while awaiting their legendary status.

[Heutenamos]

Correct and that is why there could be no probability when something is Random or is selected/opted randomly and vice versa.

However if we have a fixed set of possible intervals from a range of Y (let's say 0) to X (100), where X guarantees 100% that the event occur you can start talking about probability. You should not take the thread that seriously, everyone is mostly having fun in it while awaiting their legendary status.

That was the best of all answers i guess.It's years for me though.

[defaced]

lol LEGENDARY AT LAST

Look at all these sub human heros lurking around here.. lolol jk ^_^

Feelsgoodman.jpg

[butcherboss]

The "one day" has arrived!!!

[Mitchell]

lol LEGENDARY AT LAST

Look at all these sub human heros lurking around here.. lolol jk ^_^

Feelsgoodman.jpg

Watch out mate! You just might trigger my nuke finger.

I'm kidding of course.

[Blazed]

lol LEGENDARY AT LAST

Look at all these sub human heros lurking around here.. lolol jk ^_^

Feelsgoodman.jpg

Agreed these plebs are not worthy of our replies. Hero trash in this thread is making me ill...

[freedomno1]

lol LEGENDARY AT LAST

Look at all these sub human heros lurking around here.. lolol jk ^_^

Feelsgoodman.jpg

Watch out mate! You just might trigger my nuke finger.

I'm kidding of course.

He-he na Theymos would just add a new level to mess with everyone again

[tspacepilot]

lol LEGENDARY AT LAST

Look at all these sub human heros lurking around here.. lolol jk ^_^

Feelsgoodman.jpg

So if the guarantee is at 1052, I'd be curious to hear who has the current record for latest legendary.  Seems OP here hit it somewhere around 1008 (exactly?).

I'm in the 900s and I'm still hero, I'd like to see if I can last longer than 1008 before I rank up.