Halving is a profitable???

[Cuidler]

For those who are not reading the list, here a part of Lukejr's mail:

We are coming up on the subsidy halving this July, and there have been some
concerns raised that a non-trivial number of miners could potentially drop off
the network. This would result in a significantly longer block interval, which
also means a higher per-block transaction volume, which could cause the block
size limit to legitimately be hit much sooner than expected. Furthermore, due
to difficulty adjustment being measured exclusively in blocks, the time until
it adjusts to compensate would be prolonged.

For example, if 50% of miners dropped off the network, blocks would be every
20 minutes on average and contain double the transactions they presently do.
Even double would be approximately 850-900k, which potentially bumps up
against the hard limit when empty blocks are taken into consideration. This
situation would continue for a full month if no changes are made. If more
miners drop off the network, most of this becomes linearly worse, but due to
hitting the block size limit, the backlog would grow indefinitely until the
adjustment occurs.

Basically Lukejr concern is when halving occur and blocks become worth 12.5 BTC instead of 25 BTC, half of the hashrate might shut down to keep the same profitability. But because block will be created in 20 minutes on average instead of 10 minutes, even half of the hashrate shut down will not save miners profitability because they will receive only half of the bitcoins to stay profitable (20 minutes to generate Bitcoins instead of 10 minutes). If miners shut down another half of the hashrate, the block time generation becomes 40 minutes on average but they will receive only half of the bitcoins to be profitable again, also know as doom down spiral until difficulty readjust after one month.

I know it is just simple example and in real world minners have differently effective miners so the most effective miners can stay profitable while the old miners might be turned down. But Lukejr got a point.

So halving is definitively not a sure way to get the price up, at least short term.

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[HarryKPeters]

Do you think that in this year halving is a profitable???

As many people who make money will lose money, very hard to answer. Those with bitcoin likely win, those without lose.  Or you could say it just keeps us all distracted on bitcoin while some other better opportunity lurks.

Its very hard to say. You will never now what can happen later in the future with Bitcoin, but of course we hope that it will be profitable.
You also can now see that the value is rising slowly and that is very good for the people who already made an investment.

[romero121]

During the past days of halving it has given good profit. Now this time everyone are expecting and speculating as halving is profitable. Lets hope for the best and wait to see whats gonna happen.

[btcltccoins]

May be, because Halving has a big part in popular of Bitcoins, i also still waiting of halving, and i hope it will be a great.
most of the people are buying bitcoins and save it because of halving, when halving is coming than automatically bitcoins's price increased. it is a very profitable part of Bitcoins. so mostly people like it.

[PacePay]

Yes, the halving in this year will definitely be profitable, It will have a good effect on bitcoin price as said by the developers. The results are already obvious to us, you can notice that now the price of bitcoin is tended to go up and up, it is fluctuating but in the forward direction not the backward. And we hope that at the time of halving it will cross about $600 or $700.

[ObscureBean]

If there was a way to determine this with 100% certainty, everyone would be billionaires   Anything less than 100% certainty means it's a gamble, like everything else in life. I think the best course of action is to keep a close watch on the price and be up to date with everything else happening in the Bitcoin world. If you're lucky you may be able to profit from the halving  

[Mr. Big]

If we are thinking about the halving, it will be profitable if we are keeping coins and wait for it, But, we could only say that we will  profit when we get there...As of the moment the only thing I know is that the price would increase because of the supply of fresh coins are being cut half and the other is there are people who are holding coins right..

[pooya87]

i believe bitcoin price is going to rise a lot this year, so it would be profitable. but it won't be all because of halving. there are a lot of things going on with bitcoin this year that are all exciting enough to raise the price like these projects here https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1420155.0 especially the OpenBazaar project that i believe will be revolutionary and bring a lot of attention to bitcoin.

[bitbunnny]

No one can know that. The charm of Bitcoin is also that is so unpredictable.

[BitcoinSupremo]

Don't get your hopes very high because of the halving, I think we should be more realistic and the price of Bitcoin after halving will be 600-700 USD, but thats only my prediction, we will see the price after the halving, so if someone have bought Bitcoin at 280-300 USD and is holding from back then, then I am sure it will be very profitable for these persons if they decide to sell after halving.

[countryfree]

Well, if you have a lot of BTC and the price rises, it'll be good for you, but I'm not so sure for miners. There's no rule saying value shall double to compensate for the revenue reduced by half. If BTC only increases 30%, which would be good, result for miners will be a loss.

[Kartikay]

It is difficult to answer because
Yes halving is profitable if you have purchased bitcoins at a low price and have intentions to sell them when price will hike.
No if you will purchase bitcoins or mine them at the time of halving!

[AsaroUk]

The bad thing if the halving is that nobody will know what is going to happen with it, the most people think of course that the value will rise in the future but also other people dont think that.
If you are now looking at the value you can see that the value is not even rising now, so I also dont think that it will be that profitable.

[Amph]

No one can know that. The charm of Bitcoin is also that is so unpredictable.

it is is to know actually, currently miner are earnign 4x their consumption, this is still equal to 2x their consumption after the halving, easy math really

this if the value stay the same and no pump will come, which is unlikely, than a dump

[Enotche]

I think need  to look at past events halving.


But here it is necessary to consider that at that time was only introduced into circulation new mining equipment and also increasing people's interest.

And,maybe this event will lead to the development of even more powerfull mining equipment.

[Kakmakr]

I think need  to look at past events halving.


But here it is necessary to consider that at that time was only introduced into circulation new mining equipment and also increasing people's interest.

And,maybe this event will lead to the development of even more powerfull mining equipment.

This was still early days, and the adoption ratio to Bitcoin and the distribution was much less. We might see something special with this Halving, if everything goes as planned. We have seen some positive news lately, with Barclays partnership with Circle and OpenBazaar opening it's doors.

This will be the one to watch for future events to come, not the previous time this has happened.

[TastyChillySauce00]

The bad thing if the halving is that nobody will know what is going to happen with it, the most people think of course that the value will rise in the future but also other people dont think that.
If you are now looking at the value you can see that the value is not even rising now, so I also dont think that it will be that profitable.

probably so many people holdin their btc just to wait halving to be realized,and the market goes normal and stable,but if people massly sell their bitcoin at the same time (when price rising because of halving),you can predict what's going to happen

[ShowOff]

The bad thing if the halving is that nobody will know what is going to happen with it, the most people think of course that the value will rise in the future but also other people dont think that.
If you are now looking at the value you can see that the value is not even rising now, so I also dont think that it will be that profitable.

probably so many people holdin their btc just to wait halving to be realized,and the market goes normal and stable,but if people massly sell their bitcoin at the same time (when price rising because of halving),you can predict what's going to happen

that is what i'm thinking about , if almost every people waiting halving party to come , and sell their bitcoin, it can affect the price and is there are anyone who will buy it if almost every people want to sell ?

[arwin100]

The bad thing if the halving is that nobody will know what is going to happen with it, the most people think of course that the value will rise in the future but also other people dont think that.
If you are now looking at the value you can see that the value is not even rising now, so I also dont think that it will be that profitable.

probably so many people holdin their btc just to wait halving to be realized,and the market goes normal and stable,but if people massly sell their bitcoin at the same time (when price rising because of halving),you can predict what's going to happen

that is what i'm thinking about , if almost every people waiting halving party to come , and sell their bitcoin, it can affect the price and is there are anyone who will buy it if almost every people want to sell ?

Yes many people hold their bitcoin for now because they are bery hopefull that bitcoin will increase its price when. Halving is happen well let see and i feel excited about it another good stage for bitcoin and i think it will rise more and more in near future.

[qiwoman2]

Let's just hope that if there is a price increase we don't see too many Bitcoin Whales dumping it down just to go and hoard more cheap coins. It would be nice to see Bitcoin rise to 1k and that be a new floor for it. Only time will tell I guess.