r0ach's Cryptomarkets Watch & Scamcoin Observer

[maudevang]

I think you are right. The alts have nothing to contribute. Most or just garbage or at least 99%. Better to dump them.

[1714645544]

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[1714645544]

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[1714645544]

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[TPTB_need_war]

Apparently not a good enough graphic artist to prevent the chain from dying.

I want him for making games and social network app stuff. Not a silly logo for crypto-currency.

[TPTB_need_war]

You may end up being correct but why not hedge your bet? Why sell all the BTC you own?

I need the fiat and I was planning to sell any way. Just decided to wait until I could maximize my near-term price.

If you've got a lot of speculation risk in this, I don't know what to say. Don't speculate with more than you stand to lose, i.e. be diversified so you are inherently hedged.

I am hedged because I am spending that cash on my expenses so I can have the time to do more important programming which is my best chance for having a good income again.

[r0ach]

Margin long BTC at maximum leverageI am hedged because I am spending that cash on my expenses so I can have the time to do more important programming which is my best chance for having a good income again.

[TPTB_need_war]

Margin long BTC at maximum leverageI am hedged because I am spending that cash on my expenses so I can have the time to do more important programming which is my best chance for having a good income again.

Haha. You don't have much confidence in my programming and marketing abilities.

As you know, maximum leverage can fail even if the prediction is correct, due to volatility, margin calls, and timing.

I'll take my 33% chance with my programming and marketing over the 5% chance of a maximum leverage position.

[TPTB_need_war]

So for them to break even with their current profit margin, BTC Price of $450 has to literally Double to $900 within days of the halving.

That assumes they are breaking even before, which is very likely false.

The Economics 101 of the price meeting demand at marginal supply shouldn't mean anything but gibberish to most here in Altcoin Discussion land.

The impact of marginal miners exiting and more coins for the remaining miners should not even be entertained as a possibility because it violates the K.I.S.S. soundbite principle.

[r0ach]

Margin long BTC at maximum leverageI am hedged because I am spending that cash on my expenses so I can have the time to do more important programming which is my best chance for having a good income again.

Haha. You don't have much confidence in my programming and marketing abilities.

As you know, maximum leverage can fail even if the prediction is correct, due to volatility, margin calls, and timing.

I'll take my 33% chance with my programming and marketing over the 5% chance of a maximum leverage position.

There are only three types of people in the world:  poor people, margin traders, and poor margin traders.

[TPTB_need_war]

Margin long BTC at maximum leverageI am hedged because I am spending that cash on my expenses so I can have the time to do more important programming which is my best chance for having a good income again.

Haha. You don't have much confidence in my programming and marketing abilities.

As you know, maximum leverage can fail even if the prediction is correct, due to volatility, margin calls, and timing.

I'll take my 33% chance with my programming and marketing over the 5% chance of a maximum leverage position.

There are only three types of people in the world:  poor people, margin traders, and poor margin traders.

Haha. Good one. True. And I am always highly leveraged on my projects. And I've hit at least 3 homeruns already in my life. Being sick from 2006 to present (chronically since 2012), blinding of one eye end of 1999 with many months of followup surgeries, and a maelstrom of broken marriage/kids issues from 2001 forward, toppled my juggernaut applecart.

But I think I've got the Hotwheels back on the cart now...hopefully age 51 isn't too grandpa-esque...

[r0ach]

Leverage and interest are both kind of the root of all evil.  Assuming wealth distribution began equally, the margin ratios offered at most exchanges are just good enough to put the winner into the "good side" of the 80/20 rule.  Who wins and loses doesn't really matter, just the fact that afterwards someone will be the new landlords of the world by either skill or sheer luck, so you're manufacturing extreme inequality through some type of socially accepted contract.  Since economics is a zero sum game, the winner becomes the plantation owner and the loser (or any non-participant in the margin system) becomes the slave.  They're both pretty highly linked, since interest always tends to power margin in some manner.

[angaper]

I can't understand such unjustified speculations. We need to keep in mind that altcoins are a very recent phenomenon in the world economy and there is not enough background or historic records to predict with such accuracy the bitcoin movements to come. No one can foresee with sufficient basis any potencial scenario, and I think it is better to be expectant every day.

[TPTB_need_war]

...and I think it is better to be expectant every day.

Sorry I couldn't resist:

[Nxtblg]

But I think I've got the Hotwheels back on the cart now...hopefully age 51 isn't too grandpa-esque...

Well if it is, you can always jump on board the Trump Train.

[Nxtblg]

Leverage and interest are both kind of the root of all evil.  

Hmmm....I'd put it differently:

"Leverage is the Destroyer of the Impulsive and Interest is the Eater of Fools."

[TPTB_need_war]

Since economics is a zero sum game

Nope. Because saplings grow to oak trees, but oak trees don't grow to the moon and beyond, they rot and decay.

The larger your wealth, the less fast you can grow it because your economy-of-scale is too large for the smaller faster growing opportunities. The new minnows race past you, and the cycle repeats over and over again.

Sorry the fundamental matter of the universe is cyclical, because without friction the speed-of-life would be infinite and thus past and future would collapse into the nothingness of an infinitesimal point in spacetime. We exists only because of friction and cycles.

[r0ach]

We exist only because of friction and cycles.

Which backs what I said about a zero sum game when even the universe probably is one.  That everything you look around and see is the more long drawn out equivalent of a quantum fluctuation, some type of energy or matter briefly appearing then disappearing back to the void.

The "no free lunch" zero energy universe:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero-energy_universe

[Yakamoto]

We exist only because of friction and cycles.

Which backs what I said about a zero sum game when even the universe probably is one.  That everything you look around and see is the more long drawn out equivalent of a quantum fluctuation, some type of energy or matter briefly appearing then disappearing back to the void.

The "no free lunch" zero energy universe:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero-energy_universe

This is expected, due to the second law of thermodynamics. There is no positive to anything, and everything flows from order to chaos.

Everything is a zero-sum game, something is negated while another is added, and it never goes beyond -+0.

[TPTB_need_war]

We exist only because of friction and cycles.

Which backs what I said about a zero sum game when even the universe probably is one.  That everything you look around and see is the more long drawn out equivalent of a quantum fluctuation, some type of energy or matter briefly appearing then disappearing back to the void.

The "no free lunch" zero energy universe:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero-energy_universe

Sorry incorrect again. The Second Law of Thermodynamics (which Einstein remarked is fundamental because it is due to the irreversibility of the forward change in time) insures the entropy of the universe is always trending to maximum, not to some limit. So our diversity and opportunity are always increasing.

Man r0ach, don't be so depressed. Life is great!

[BTCLovingDude]

I think you are right. The alts have nothing to contribute. Most or just garbage or at least 99%. Better to dump them.

well, this is not entirely true.
i am not defending any altcoins here and i agree that most of them are just garbage and the only benefit of them is to be pumped and dumps and in the meantime some people are taking the profit.

but also there are a lot of good things going on in the development part of the altcoins, you can still find some good projects with dedicated developers working hard.

[TPTB_need_war]

I sold 1BTC @ $460. Dollar cost averaging what I believe to be a deadcat bounce.

[Nxtblg]

I sold 1BTC @ $460. Dollar cost averaging what I believe to be a deadcat bounce.

So you're legging out.

Hrm. If BTC does what you say, I'd better scrape up some cash to buy more.