r0ach's Cryptomarkets Watch & Scamcoin Observer

[TPTB_need_war]

Your scenario doesn't make sense.  There's no reason for all these nations to be beholden to the US dollar and collapse while acting as indentured servants to the US.

It doesn't make sense. But it is a fact. The value of dollars raised by foreign corporations via bonds that have to repaid in dollars is $10 trillion since 2008.

The Hong Kong dollar is pegged to the US dollar. The Chinese Yuan has been more or less pegged the US dollar. This policy enabled China to force all savings in China into 0 profit manufacturing. Read Michael Pettis to understand the macro economics.

What you think is irrelevant. These are the facts.

[1714647667]

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[1714647667]

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[maxsinner]

Ethereum still looks massively inflated. I would not feel comfortable holding any amount for longer than a few days.

[r0ach]

It doesn't make sense. But it is a fact. The value of dollars raised by foreign corporations via bonds that have to repaid in dollars is $10 trillion since 2008.

The Hong Kong dollar is pegged to the US dollar. The Chinese Yuan has been more or less pegged the US dollar. This policy enabled China to force all savings in China into 0 profit manufacturing. Read Michael Pettis to understand the macro economics.

What you think is irrelevant. These are the facts.

I mean, it's obvious why, just military dominance.  They have no need to challenge the dollar in a way that can create conflict until the burden of not doing so is too great.  That time will come and everyone on the planet is not going to be willing slaves of the US forever.  Even if they were willing to do such a thing, the flight of capital to the US would send Bitcoin to the moon in the process.  I think this debunks your idea that gold and Bitcoin can be linked at all completely.  Capital flight to US assets or USD will send Bitcoin skyrocketing.  Bitcoin is the Rolls Royce of capital flight.

[darlidada]

It doesn't make sense. But it is a fact. The value of dollars raised by foreign corporations via bonds that have to repaid in dollars is $10 trillion since 2008.

The Hong Kong dollar is pegged to the US dollar. The Chinese Yuan has been more or less pegged the US dollar. This policy enabled China to force all savings in China into 0 profit manufacturing. Read Michael Pettis to understand the macro economics.

What you think is irrelevant. These are the facts.

I mean, it's obvious why, just military dominance.  They have no need to challenge the dollar in a way that can create conflict until the burden of not doing so is too great.  That time will come and everyone on the planet is not going to be willing slaves of the US forever.  Even if they were willing to do such a thing, the flight of capital to the US would send Bitcoin to the moon in the process.  I think this debunks your idea that gold and Bitcoin can be linked at all completely.  Capital flight to US assets or USD will send Bitcoin skyrocketing.  Bitcoin is the Rolls Royce of capital flight.

YUAN => BTC  (increase of BTC price)
BTC => USD (decrease of BTC price)

if no one holds btcs isnt the effect neutral at the end? or am i missing something?

Edit: interest read on that subject http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-26/why-hedge-fund-manager-who-made-killing-subprime-buying-bitcoin

[r0ach]

It doesn't make sense. But it is a fact. The value of dollars raised by foreign corporations via bonds that have to repaid in dollars is $10 trillion since 2008.

The Hong Kong dollar is pegged to the US dollar. The Chinese Yuan has been more or less pegged the US dollar. This policy enabled China to force all savings in China into 0 profit manufacturing. Read Michael Pettis to understand the macro economics.

What you think is irrelevant. These are the facts.

I mean, it's obvious why, just military dominance.  They have no need to challenge the dollar in a way that can create conflict until the burden of not doing so is too great.  That time will come and everyone on the planet is not going to be willing slaves of the US forever.  Even if they were willing to do such a thing, the flight of capital to the US would send Bitcoin to the moon in the process.  I think this debunks your idea that gold and Bitcoin can be linked at all completely.  Capital flight to US assets or USD will send Bitcoin skyrocketing.  Bitcoin is the Rolls Royce of capital flight.

YUAN => BTC  (increase of BTC price)
BTC => USD (decrease of BTC price)

isnt the effect neutral at the end? or am i missing something?

No...because the market cap is dramatically inflated in the process, which makes the price of each coin go higher.  Not everyone is buying then dumping all at the same time.  The float of economic activity is what enables you to use any currency as a store of value.  It's a hugely net positive effect.

[smooth]

What i would do is wait until it looks like a good time dump *some* of them.
And chances are those Bigger whales (legal or not) out there seen what i have all along
and noticed a monthly pattern of price increases and decreases..
and of course would *try* and aim their dumping at a profitable point time to do so.

Sure there is no question there are Bitcoin whales (both holders and traders) who dump in large amounts when they think the time is right. Whether ransomware developers do this or not is totally impossible for us to know, I'm just doubting it because everything I've seen indicates that almost everyone who is using Bitcoin as part of some other business just wants be rid of it ASAP. Waiting for a time to sell in bulk means holding, and that's exactly what most non-speculators don't want to do.

We don't know for sure, but the one thing we absolutely do know for sure is that virtually all ransomware buyers buy the coins they need to pay the ransom. Assuming your number of $350 million is close to correct, it works out to $1 million per day in buy pressure coming from ransomware buyers alone. That's a good chunk of all the daily mined coins (and it will more than the daily mined coins at current prices after the halving). So if ransomware developers are holding and waiting for a good time to sell, there would be massive upward pressure on the price all the rest of the time.

[maxsinner]

Aren't you guys a bit off topic, or am I missing the point? Please move the discussion to the Ransomware section.

[mnemonicsoup]

At $500+, I don't know why anyone in their sane mind would hold Bitcoin. You aren't going to make +100% gain from $500 in 2016.

If I buy gold, it has less utility than Bitcoin.  Where can I spend gold?  Nowhere.  All I can do with gold is mail it back to the gold dealer for 90% or less of what I paid for it.  

I don't know where you are from but here in Europe, the local shops give you 97% of what you've paid.

[TPTB_need_war]

It doesn't make sense. But it is a fact. The value of dollars raised by foreign corporations via bonds that have to repaid in dollars is $10 trillion since 2008.

The Hong Kong dollar is pegged to the US dollar. The Chinese Yuan has been more or less pegged the US dollar. This policy enabled China to force all savings in China into 0 profit manufacturing. Read Michael Pettis to understand the macro economics.

What you think is irrelevant. These are the facts.

...the flight of capital to the US would send Bitcoin to the moon in the process.  I think this debunks your idea that gold and Bitcoin can be linked at all completely.  Capital flight to US assets or USD will send Bitcoin skyrocketing.  Bitcoin is the Rolls Royce of capital flight.

Indeed this is what is predicted for 2017 to 2020ish. But first there will be an initial asset-wide reaction to a global liquidity squeeze when the interest rates change direction. Then the capital flight movement (from the liquidity crisis affected economies) leads to a concentration in USD, US stocks, Bitcoin, and gold and other tangible private assets will upward spiral (positive feedback loop effect) into to a bubble stampede into them. Thus the V bottom slingshot prediction.

And gold will be also be going up as a safe haven flight asset:

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; At the WEC you said stay in cash not debt. You also said the stock market would dive in the first quarter the turn back up. I have followed the reversals all the way up and caught probably 80% of the move. Thank you. My question is simply are knocking of heaven’s door? Is it time to breakout or are we consolidating? I have found the Socrates preview for attendees a real asset for it has no agenda but forecasting.

ANSWER: Well put. Stay in mostly cash, far away from fixed income. Yes, we are knocking on heaven’s door as they say in the Dow. The GMW has done a pretty good job for this rally. The Daily Bullish Reversal in the Dow that is important stands at 18137.50. We reached 18167,63 intraday, but could not close about that Reversal. It is possible to break through to new highs on the cash index. However, to do so we need that daily closing just to test the former high established last May at 18351.36. We need to exceed that high here in 2016 to imply we will continue to push higher.

Nevertheless, it is never wise to ANTICIPATE such breakouts because that is how people buy the high and lose a fortune. A daily close above 18010 will help warn that we may press high for a day. Keep in mind we are at the threshold in many markets. If we press higher after April, then we can see an early rally into June/July. But lift-off still appears to be next year in almost everything.

The issue seems to be CONFIDENCE. That must crack, and when it does, this will be confirmed by the breakout in everything.

Ethereum still looks massively inflated. I would not feel comfortable holding any amount for longer than a few days.

It has been massively inflated since Day 1 of the ICO. That hasn't been relevant though.

[Nxtblg]

I mean, it's obvious why, just military dominance.

There's a lot of truth in that. London UK became the financial center of the world thanks in large part to the British Empire. And with American geopolitical predominance, history has repeated: trillions upon trillions of greenback-equivalent just keep knocking of the door of New York to be let into the American capital markets.

And here's a fun fact: when the sun sets on the geopolitically-predominant power, two aftereffects persist: 1) world-class standing in the capital markets; 2) a bloated military budget.

[TPTB_need_war]

I mean, it's obvious why, just military dominance.

There's a lot of truth in that. London UK became the financial center of the world thanks in large part to the British Empire. And with American geopolitical predominance, history has repeated: trillions upon trillions of greenback-equivalent just keep knocking of the door of New York to be let into the American capital markets.

And here's a fun fact: when the sun sets on the geopolitically-predominant power, two aftereffects persist: 1) world-class standing in the capital markets; 2) a bloated military budget.

The shift of the military and financial capital of the world from the USA to China+Asia won't be complete until 2032.95 (thus isn't relevant to our current discussion):

https://www.google.com/search?q=site%3Aarmstrongeconomics.com+rise+of+China

[Spoetnik]

I don't know what you guys are smoking but any type of economic activity is good for a currency.  It doesn't matter if it's the girl scouts or ransomware.  I don't believe the ransomware market is anywhere near that big though.  I'd be surprised if it was 1/10th of that.

Well for one thing i don't think you understood what i was trying to say.
I made an observation not a judgment.
I never DID say Ransomware market activity is bad.
So no offense but you are the one smoking something not me.

I find this funny because no matter how intensely hardcore i bend over backwards to lay out a verbose rant
spelling out every little bit in excruciating mind bending detail i still get utterly misunderstood completely.

Also I pulled my numbers on the market activity of Ransomware via the news website Neowin.net.
Who i believe gets the estimates from AV manufacturers like Kaspersky etc.
Feel free to Google it though.

I do find it amusing how you all took a small tiny part of the grander larger point i was trying to make
and gone off on a tangent railing on and on about an irrelevant point unrelated to the topic.
It's like sliding in a keyword that sets off alarms and all of sudden the hounds are let loose.

I was talking about the end of month dumping i have postulated many times on the forum over the last few years.
And that the Ransomware coders collecting Bitcoin revenue are simply a part of the whole entire economy.
A large collection of people made up of anyone & everyone.

When i posted here last night i seen a giant pile of dumping of BTC on BTCe
so i brought up my theory to say hey.. that it explains it
BUT.. we are STILL going up.. bit by bit gradually.
I also just checked right now and i am right as always.
The dumping stopped and the price is rebounding fairly quick.
And i am fairly certain it will keep doing that with maybe some more bursts of dumping.
Because although the overall price of Bitcoin is going up and up there is still people out there that need to dump.
My point that was 100% ignored completely was..

That not everyone out there is in the position of sitting on their Bitcoin indefinitely..
There -ARE- people who have bills to pay or people who simply want the money.
Maybe try and reread what i actually said if you guys want to argue with me ?
Then at least we can be arguing about the same fucking thing  

I hoped my point was crystal clear and i was just gonna hit submit but.. uhhhhh i fucking doubt it  

Point ? ..the price is going up on Bitcoin.
And this is tied to Altcoins being dumped because of the speculation that "the halving" will cause BTC to rise.
Which i already said i personally think it's a self fulfilling prophecy at work by you all.
EDIT: and not just because of ALT's dumping but people buying just because..

Generally speaking i have a hard time taking other peoples "market analysis" opinions
when they fail miserably on a consistent basis to address or understand what is being said by someone.
And as usual i always feel compelled to say everything here repeatedly in different ways
Which is EXACTLY why i always have long comments.. I am talking to people who are off in their own little world.

It's not about judgment or agreeing with someone.
It's about understanding what is said and what is going on around you.
I would never skip through reading 1 line of a guys rant then argue on with him (which is what most of you do to me)
Nor would i rail on and on 100% ignoring the guys point and if i did not get it i would simply ask.

[r0ach]

Indeed this is what is predicted for 2017 to 2020ish. But first there will be an initial asset-wide reaction to a global liquidity squeeze when the interest rates change direction. Then the capital flight movement (from the liquidity crisis affected economies) leads to a concentration in USD, US stocks, Bitcoin, and gold and other tangible private assets will upward spiral (positive feedback loop effect) into to a bubble stampede into them. Thus the V bottom slingshot prediction.

Bitcoin is a (perceived) high risk, high reward, emerging market.  The people who are investing in Bitcoin don't care about some miniscule change in interest rates because they're chasing the high risk, high reward market anyway.  If it wasn't Bitcoin, it would be buying land next to a volcano or something, NOT a bank.  Interest rates do not matter for Bitcoin.  You might be able to draw some tiny correlation, but nothing big enough to matter.  

Gold, on the other hand, the market cap is already assumed to be somewhat maxed out, so things like interest rates actually do matter for that market while being meaningless for Bitcoin.  Any type of new development announcement, the halving, ETF acceptance, etc, completely dwarfs whatever interest rates are doing.

[TPTB_need_war]

Indeed this is what is predicted for 2017 to 2020ish. But first there will be an initial asset-wide reaction to a global liquidity squeeze when the interest rates change direction. Then the capital flight movement (from the liquidity crisis affected economies) leads to a concentration in USD, US stocks, Bitcoin, and gold and other tangible private assets will upward spiral (positive feedback loop effect) into to a bubble stampede into them. Thus the V bottom slingshot prediction.

Bitcoin is a (perceived) high risk, high reward, emerging market.  The people who are investing in Bitcoin don't care about some miniscule change in interest rates because they're chasing the high risk, high reward market anyway.

Some whales are the ostensibly debt slave Chinese mining farms. Economics 101 says price is set by marginal supply and demand intersection.

not necessarily so

He changed it to "Some whales".  Looks like he remembered people like the Winklevoss exist...

And I changed it from "The whales" before I saw his post. It wasn't remembering, it was simply re-reading and realizing I chose the wrong word.

[razen489]

not necessarily so

[r0ach]

not necessarily so

He changed it to "some whales".  Looks like he remembered people like the Winklevoss exist.  Not to mention when you click one of those maps that shows the movement of BTC on heavy volume, like 90% of it is going straight to NYC.

[kiklo]

Indeed this is what is predicted for 2017 to 2020ish. But first there will be an initial asset-wide reaction to a global liquidity squeeze when the interest rates change direction. Then the capital flight movement (from the liquidity crisis affected economies) leads to a concentration in USD, US stocks, Bitcoin, and gold and other tangible private assets will upward spiral (positive feedback loop effect) into to a bubble stampede into them. Thus the V bottom slingshot prediction.

Bitcoin is a (perceived) high risk, high reward, emerging market.  The people who are investing in Bitcoin don't care about some miniscule change in interest rates because they're chasing the high risk, high reward market anyway.  If it wasn't Bitcoin, it would be buying land next to a volcano or something, NOT a bank.  Interest rates do not matter for Bitcoin.  You might be able to draw some tiny correlation, but nothing big enough to matter.  

Gold, on the other hand, the market cap is already assumed to be somewhat maxed out, so things like interest rates actually do matter for that market while being meaningless for Bitcoin.  Any type of new development announcement, the halving, ETF acceptance, etc, completely dwarfs whatever interest rates are doing.

Those people are mostly venture capitalist, and they usually follow the best sales pitch , not the best solution.
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/v/venturecapitalist.asp

A venture capitalist is an investor who either provides capital to startup ventures or supports small companies that wish to expand but do not have access to equities markets.
Venture capitalists are willing to invest in such companies because they can earn a massive return on their investments if these companies are a success.

Venture capitalists also experience major losses when their picks fail, but these investors are typically wealthy enough that they can afford to take the risks associated with funding young, unproven companies that appear to have a great idea and a great management team.

Interest rates may or may not matter to Venture Capitalists , but it does matter to individuals that can think and want a profit while keeping their principle intact.  
So interest rates will make all of these individuals head in certain directions based on guaranteed rate of return.

VCs may help get a technology started, but individuals will decide if it is a success or failure and they do pay attention to interest rates.
And no interest rate is the big issue for BTC, there is no reason to hold it except a speculative hope to sell on an increase.

 

FYI:
Never forget Satochi BTC wallet with 1,148,800 BTC
https://bitslog.wordpress.com/2013/04/17/the-well-deserved-fortune-of-satoshi-nakamoto/
If that wallet is ever cashed out BTC price will collapse like an imploding star.


 

[r0ach]

Interest rates may or may not matter to Venture Capitalists , but it does matter to individuals that can think and want a profit while keeping their principle intact.  

Only an idiot would believe a checking/savings account is a safe place to keep money right now.

[TPTB_need_war]

My point is that BTC is the unit-of-account by which everyone measures their gambling success, not fiat.

not really, for the good or bad, when people say their loss in bitcoin they are mentally measuring it in fiat. they just say it in bitcoin because they have used bitcoin and lost bitcoin. you never say someone say "aww that is a lot of bitcoin you lost" they say that is a lot of money. they will all multiply it with the price and then decide how big it was.

Disagree, because the are counting the Bitcoin's future value at $10,000+ per Bitcoin. They only care they earned more Bitcoin out of the trade. Whether they compute that in Bitcoin or fiat is irrelevant, because they want more Bitcoin. If they had a fiat loss but got more Bitcoin, they are happy. Because sometimes they will have a fiat gain but less Bitcoin, which is not what they want.

Edit: a follow-up post confirming my theory:

Hmmm.  I've been gambling online longer than I'd like to admit.  I've had to use several methods over the years to get funds transferred to my gambling sites due to various restrictions in my region.  I've used everything from phone credit schemes to Western Union....So, bitcoin does have an unrecognized value here in the gambling industry.  I don't trade my bitcoin out for fiat....it's too valuable a gambling commodity!  And, I do use my bitcoin to invest in alts to increase the size of my bitcoin holding.  My bitcoin is reserved for gambling, period.

[kiklo]

Interest rates may or may not matter to Venture Capitalists , but it does matter to individuals that can think and want a profit while keeping their principle intact.  

Only an idiot would believe a checking/savings account is a safe place to keep money right now.

Those so-called idiots outnumber your VCs and they are risk averse.
They will trust their cash in a mattress before BTC.
And they will determine if BTC ever reaches true Utility.  
BTC has still got years of Public Relations efforts to go thru before the majority of the public trusts them.