r0ach's Cryptomarkets Watch & Scamcoin Observer

[kiklo]

funny that alts have been gaining market share for quite a while now.

Do you remember a couple months ago when NXT had something like a 5 million dollar market cap with 15 BTC buy support on the only exchange it's traded at?  That guy Kiklo is constantly spamming advertisement for some PoS coin he's a bagholder on that probably isn't even traded on an exchange, yet someone still awarded it a market cap somehow.

LOL,  
KIKLO
JOIN THE ALT SIDE


 

FYI:
Thanks for the Undeserved Credit,
But BTC is sterile, and PoW Mining is unprofitable unless your name is CHINA.  
This is just the beginning of the Paradigm Shift from unprofitable PoW mining to profitable PoS mining.

FYI2:
We have got to work on your reading comprehension, r0ach.

some PoS coin he's a bagholder on that probably isn't even traded on an exchange

Exchanges: √  Trade ZEIT @ alcurEX & Cryptopia & SouthXchange & Yobit √  

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[TPTB_need_war]

So this means we might not get a crash in Bitcoin and gold at this time if they are still anti-correlated to the US dollar and US stocks. We might be looking at "happy speculating days are here again" for another 1.5 years!! OMG!!  

Hilarious, so no gold under $850 or Bitcoin under $150 this year. When predictions don't come true, you just make a new one Fed ain't raising no rates, they are searching for every possible excuse not to raise them and they are succeeding every Fed meeting, the one they did in December was a game of chicken, they learned they are the chicken. Hyperinflation baby. Bitcoin I am not sure, it's crippled by chinese miners, it can go belly up any minute.

lol, moving targets. He is trying to be prophet, yet he knows shit what will happen. I remember last year how he preached about BTC and Gold hitting the bottom. Since then BTC up 100%, Gold up +20%.

His problem is that he is trying to explain and predict what is going to happen with freebies that MA puts out here and there. Well, even MA was wrong this time, even though he won't admit it.

I did not have a copy of the gold report from last year, but someone I communicate with did. He told me the benchmarks indicated that gold would "most likely" still make lower lows (e.g. < $1050, with the first target for a bottom of $850), and that the first possible timeframe for the low was end of Q1 2016 (contrary to what I was thinking was just after 2015.75). Upon learning that, I stopped thinking Bitcoin would move lower than the mid $200s before then.

The benchmarks stated that the USA dollar and and USA stocks had to start moving in unison as another criteria and if this wasn't the case, then the benchmark low would be pushed out in time until they do.

Thus none of his predictions have failed. Those who expect him to say "this will happen on this date" are building a strawman illogic, because MA never predicts such. His method is to provide a "if this, then that" analysis of the computer model's outputs. As I explained my post yesterday upthread, since the Euro has made MONTHLY BULLISH reversals, this indicates a move back into the Euro by the speculation markes with a potential top 117 to 125+. Thus this indicates that the USA dollar will not just break out to the upside yet (i.e. that the world's capital is not yet fleeing to seek safe haven in the USA dollar which will come eventually). And the USA stock market has been up recently, so still out-of-sync with the USA dollar. So the interpretation of this appears to be that prediction markets are expect a "No" result for the upcoming BREXIT vote this June 23, 2016. Thus USA dollar down, and if USA stocks also follow the USA dollar down, then this would be the FALSE MOVE (moving in unison) that would load the SLINGSHOT move to the upside for the newly aligned safe haven assets of the dollar, USA stocks, gold, Bitcoin, collectibles, tangibles (e.g. land), etc.. Thus the earliest date (which is also confirmed by the computer model) is the May/June followed by August, etc..

What appears to be the most likely outcome is that the EU will experience a resurgence of hot money inflows due to the "Remain" result for the BREXIT referendum. This will be a deadcat bounce extremis while the fundamentals will grow worse (fiscal, debt, migrant crises). If the USA dollar and USA stocks both decline at the same time due to this shift of the movement of hot money to the EU, Euro, UK pound, Europe stocks, then it means the world will become less risk adverse for that brief period, which will send gold down also since gold is a hedge against government failure. Whether Bitcoin also follows down is not stated by MA's model, because he isn't tracking it. But the USA dollar and USA stocks coming into alignment, would mean all safe haven assets go down. The likely event triggering such for Bitcoin is the exhale for the priced in expectation of price rise on the July halving, and also the realization that Blockstream's SegWit scaling solution is inadequate without more "soft version forks' later, but the realization that inserting this "soft fork versioning" in Bitcoin's protocol along with Blockstream cooperating with China's 65+% share (to increase on the halving as marginal miners fall away) of mining control means that Bitcoin is no longer a decentralized currency and thus Bitcoin has failed. But later the markets will rebound when they realize "nevermind" just use Bitcoin any way (and besides Bitcoin's true main market and use case is not for ideological perfect decentralized currency but rather as the unit-of-account for decentralized crypto-gambling).

Edit: this video explanation from MA, seems to indicate the FALSE MOVE described above, is expected to continue until 2017.95! Again this is really wow! So USD, USA stocks, gold, and Bitcoin could decline from this June or August until the end of 2017! Wow! The years 2018 and 2019 are going to hell on earth. We will see massive economic collapse, as well a global pandemic might resurface during this period (according to MA's cyclic models of pandemics).

MA's model provides key dates and it provides indications such as "Panic Cycle", "Directional Change", etc. on each asset analyzed. His model also provides "if this, then that" benchmarks on price reversals in both directions.

From this, the speculator can watch the market and try to interpret how the real world is matching the model and then infer decisions with a much better than 50% probability.

Something important does always happen on the ECM turn dates. For example:

1. On March 13/14 2016, the deadcat bounce of Baltic Sea index (measure of the world's trade activity) rolled over and started to decline again.

2. On 2015.75, was precisely the event that began WW3 and the stage of the conflict that sent the migrants invading Europe:

Putin invaded Syria precisely on September 30, 2015, which was to the day of 2015.75. That warned that whatever takes place right on the day becomes the main focus. Putin then withdrew precisely on pi day. So what is taking place from the Middle East will break the back of Europe economically as governments seek to raise taxes to pay for the pretend “refugees” as well as extremists who have infiltrated Europe and destabilized its borders and security. This is unwinding the entire freedom of movement within Europe which was the cornerstone of the EU concept. With borders resurfacing, Brussels begins its decline.

Even 9/11 took place right on our pi target from the peak in the ECM. This is starting to demonstrate that there is, in fact, a cycle to this type of activity that is following the 8.6 frequency. The Madrid attack on the train was March 11, 2004, or 2004.19. If we project target dates from the USA 9/11 incident, we arrive at 2004.16, which was March 1 or 10 days earlier before the attack. We have been running various terrorist attacks through our models. The list is indeed long (see Wikipedia). Nonetheless, it appears that certain groups do fall into unique cycle frequencies. This appears to enable one to determine which group was behind what.

2002.780 Indonesia Bali Oct 12, 2002
2002.810 Moscow October 23, 2002
2003.372 Morocco, Casablanca May 16, 2003
2003.361 Riyadh Saudi Arabia May 12, 2003
2003.887 Turkey, Istanbul November 20, 2003
2004.191 Madrid March 11, 2004
2004.668 Beslan, Russia September 1 – 3, 2004

Let’s face the facts. The Economic Confidence Model works with such precision it is often mind-numbing. This is monitoring human activity as a coherent, collective economic entity of “civilization” that materializes by people coming together. I suppose it makes sense that we are influenced collectively to respond with a cyclical rhythm. It appears the same is reflected in terrorist activity.

3. From my March, 2009 essay:

I don't know if anyone else has commented already, that Martin Armstrong's "It Is Just Time" prediction made back in October 2008, for a major turn event on March 19, nailed the exact day (after) the Fed announced to start buying government bonds directly.

He had also predicted ahead of time the turn that coincided with the peak in the precious metals prices last March 2008.

Google "Martin Armstrong", for the remarkable story about how accurate his computer model predictions have been, and him being in the maximum security prison without a trial, together with the Shoe Bomber and the Unibomber, alledgedly because of his unwillingness to share his model with the CIA.

[TPTB_need_war]

Follow up to my prior post:

QUESTION: my normal logical mind tells me that whenever interest rates rise, money gets more expensive, so consequently the only true reason for doing so would be that underlying economic data shows the economy is doing well and can do without ‘help’.

A simple mind like I am tells me that a stock index should rise in case of a well doing economy. Instead I only hear markets fear a interest rate hike. Seems to me that the collective wants interest rates remain low, so stockindex growth driven higher by debt.

ANSWER: The fundamentals flipped after the shift from a private to public wave following 1929. Under the pre-1929 economics of laissez-faire, the government did not attempt to manipulate society with monetary policy. They attempted to lower U.S. interest rates to deflect capital inflows back to Europe, but they did not practice manipulating interest rates domestically to try to manage the economy. Therefore, raising interest rates before 1929 was often seen as bullish because it showed there was a demand for borrowing money due to economic expansion.

Today, the fundamentals are interpreted through the eyes of Marxism. Raising interest rates is now considered a punishment to society intended to deter them from borrowing. Yet, deflation involves declining interest rates due to the lack of interest to borrow. Some say that higher rates are bad for stocks, but they are solely looking at it as a punitive measure that will cost people more to borrow. You even have people cheering gold with lower interest rates.

None of this makes any sense economically. Nonetheless, we are looking at a sharp rise in stocks and gold along with rising interest rates, which will confuse everyone. Interest rates are the manifestation of expected inflation. If you think inflation will be 10%, you will lose money if you lend it at 5%. Interest rates are the price of expected inflation alongside the perceived risk.

Therefore, everything will take off to the upside and the majority, whom will be following the Marxist version of fundamentals, will feed the rally because they will be short. This view of fundamentals will eventually flip back, but only when the public at large sees this flip and goes with it. That is the point of no return where confidence in government collapses.

[rdnkjdi]

But BTC is sterile, and PoW Mining is unprofitable unless your name is CHINA.  Wink
This is just the beginning of the Paradigm Shift from unprofitable PoW mining to profitable PoS mining.

Electricity is .01 kw in Irkutsk & .025 in certain parts of the US.  Also the companies that are frontrunning the technology before selling the miners are likely profitable regardless of the electric rates.

[r0ach]

2. On 2015.75, was precisely the event that began WW3 and the stage of the conflict that sent the migrants invading Europe:

Actions like this are not due to capital movements.  In America, George Soros funded Black Lives Matter in order to try and create a buffer between the Jewish financiers and the angry masses who would come after them with pitchforks.  They attempted to give them a more immediate problem to deal with, a buffer.  I'm sure the Muslim invasion in Europe is no different.  Kill two birds with one stone.  Give the "goys" some enormous problem to deal with where they have no possibility at all of even thinking about going after bankers like in Iceland, while also aligning them against the Zionist's most immediate threat...the angry muslims.

It is a scorched earth strategy designed to benefit one group.  It has absolutely nothing to do with capital flows.  You should really stop pushing Armstrong.  I don't believe a single word the guy says.  He also predicted DOW 32,000 by 2015.  He's likely just another shill for the tribe.  People who don't even acknowledge who the biggest players are in this rigged game are garbage as far as I'm concerned.  Now that you know my stance on Armstrong, please do not try to push him on me.

[TPTB_need_war]

r0ach you will end up destitute.

That is my way of saying your conceptualization is incorrect and I don't want to waste my time repeating why. You are entitled to your delusions. Enjoy.

[r0ach]

r0ach you will end up destitute.

That is my way of saying your conceptualization is incorrect and I don't want to waste my time repeating why. You are entitled to your delusions. Enjoy.

It is a centrally administered game that will end with a black swan event or controlled demolition by the people who run it, not an orderly walk to the exits predicted by "capital flows".  When the economic system is the equivalent of a few guys in a building flipping a lever up and down, and Armstrong doesn't even attempt to identify who the players are, it's a complete joke.  In fact, he does the exact opposite, assumes everyone will figure it out, then tries to defend them haha:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/history/europes-economic-history/jewish-bankers-vs-all-bankers/

ALL I care about is being on the right side of the trade when they inevitably flip the switch in the near future, or the black swan event that occurs before they do it where no human on earth is going to get it right except by sheer luck.

[TPTB_need_war]

It is a centrally administered game that will end with a black swan event or controlled demolition by the people who run it, not an orderly walk to the exits predicted by "capital flows".

I emphatically disagree! You think nature died and the Second Law of Thermodynamics has been voided.

Tinfoil hats are actually Marxists, because they think central command is possible or even that gold is some exceptional form of money (as if there is ONE RIGHT WAY).

BitFomo, the argument that the government won't care about the securities law violations in crypto IPOs, instamines, PoS coins, masternode coins, coins paying debasement to the developers (Z.cash), seems reasonable because the elite have bigger fish to fry.

However, the period of 2018 to 2020 is going to be utter scorched earth economic collapse followed by a coordinated monetary reform into a one-world reserve currency system, thus we could see governments become very totalitarian in terms of going after all illegal actions wherein they can confiscate people's money due to some law broken. They will hunt those with significant money, not nickels and dimes.

I would steer clear of violating laws as much as possible, if you have any money. As for thinking you can hide your money from the government in Bitcoin, the centralization (centralized control) of Bitcoin will eventually kill that.

Do you really think TPTB, the mainstream capital flows that are short the dollar+gold+Bitcoin, and the world's socialism is going to allow the "rich" (i.e. the upper middle class) to ride away with gains in gold and Bitcoin as the rest of the people become impoverished by the economic collapse

If you want to ride through this coming apocalypse unscathed, then you need to be extra diligent on not providing simple legal justification for confiscation of your wealth.

[TPTB_need_war]

r0ach, you know I respect you, so please don't take my comments as disrespectful.

There is so much serious work in front of me, I have to stop commenting in this forum. It is much more important that I complete my work, than comment in this forum.

I will try to make this quote my last commentary on this matter. TPTB are not entirely in control. Marxism and the entropic force is driving the current outcome, i.e. the Second Law of Thermodynamics. Read my 2010 essay, "Understand Everything Fundamentally".

The red text was predicted by myself in 2010 in the essay "Understand Everything Fundamentally" which is linked in CoinCube's OP of this thread and which was widely syndicated on the internet "goldbug" websites such as gold-eagle.com, financialsense.com, marketoracle.co.uk, silverbearcare.com, etc..

Follow up to my prior post:

QUESTION: my normal logical mind tells me that whenever interest rates rise, money gets more expensive, so consequently the only true reason for doing so would be that underlying economic data shows the economy is doing well and can do without ‘help’.

A simple mind like I am tells me that a stock index should rise in case of a well doing economy. Instead I only hear markets fear a interest rate hike. Seems to me that the collective wants interest rates remain low, so stockindex growth driven higher by debt.

ANSWER: The fundamentals flipped after the shift from a private to public wave following 1929. Under the pre-1929 economics of laissez-faire, the government did not attempt to manipulate society with monetary policy. They attempted to lower U.S. interest rates to deflect capital inflows back to Europe, but they did not practice manipulating interest rates domestically to try to manage the economy. Therefore, raising interest rates before 1929 was often seen as bullish because it showed there was a demand for borrowing money due to economic expansion.

Today, the fundamentals are interpreted through the eyes of Marxism. Raising interest rates is now considered a punishment to society intended to deter them from borrowing. Yet, deflation involves declining interest rates due to the lack of interest to borrow. Some say that higher rates are bad for stocks, but they are solely looking at it as a punitive measure that will cost people more to borrow. You even have people cheering gold with lower interest rates.

None of this makes any sense economically. Nonetheless, we are looking at a sharp rise in stocks and gold along with rising interest rates, which will confuse everyone. Interest rates are the manifestation of expected inflation. If you think inflation will be 10%, you will lose money if you lend it at 5%. Interest rates are the price of expected inflation alongside the perceived risk.

Therefore, everything will take off to the upside and the majority, whom will be following the Marxist version of fundamentals, will feed the rally because they will be short. This view of fundamentals will eventually flip back, but only when the public at large sees this flip and goes with it. That is the point of no return where confidence in government collapses.

I really doubt any result but remain is what occurs unless Im somehow missing some vast but hidden harbour of discontent or apprehension at EU policy.  Its possible and probably would even be accurate to the situation but the average person is more guided by their own impression of EU money flow to them personally I think.   Many land owners receive cash for otherwise fairly useless open land on their large estates so are likely in favour of continuing subsidies and similarly those in power and also the wider public love the idea of free money scheme 'initiatives' ;that is probably the perception of EU.

  Also the common argument seems to be along the lines of but I like Europeans as if UK will cast adrift into the Atlantic if a vote should be made to distance from the EU, not only does business stop and any travel plans but literally UK leaves europe.  To me the vote is on politics and unbound and expanding budgeting power of EU, its quite reasonable to leave and if you really want return a decade later, meanwhile we trade with europe anyway because that's what companies do to profit.

You affirmed the red text in my post. And thus affirmed my 2010 prediction has remained correct.

[r0ach]

Tinfoil hats are actually Marxists, because they think central command is possible

Maybe you just lack ambition.

"When Alexander saw the breadth of his domain, he wept for there were no more worlds to conquer."

or even that gold is some exceptional form of money (as if there is ONE RIGHT WAY)

I'll go back to my statement about the only true sound form of money being the theoretical currency used in the transformers cartoon "energon", blocks of energy that can be redeemed at full face value at any given time regardless of externalities.  Lacking such technology, since matter and energy are interchangable, the next most likely candidate is the most easily convertable form of matter, and thus we end up with oil backed currency.

So no, from a rational point of view, gold doesn't actually make the most sense unless it can be easily converted, or you're living in a pre-industrial revolution civilization.  But the problem is, the oil, or most energy sources in general that act as commodities, can be cheated with fractional reserve, so here we are with Bitcoin because gold has lack of granularity, high friction in use, and the same counterparty risk as the oil dollar when it has to go in vaults and be used with IOUs.

[TPTB_need_war]

TPTB are not entirely in control. Marxism and the entropic force is driving the current outcome, i.e. the Second Law of Thermodynamics. Read my 2010 essay, "Understand Everything Fundamentally".

[TPTB_need_war]

I'll go back to my statement about the only true sound form of money being the theoretical currency used in the transformers cartoon "energon", blocks of energy that can be redeemed at full face value at any given time regardless of externalities.  Lacking such technology, since matter and energy are interchangable, the next most likely candidate is the most easily convertable form of matter, and thus we end up with oil backed currency.

So no, from a rational point of view, gold doesn't actually make the most sense unless it can be easily converted, or you're living in a pre-industrial revolution civilization.  But the problem is, the oil, or most energy sources in general can be cheated with fractional reserve or inflation, so here we are with Bitcoin because gold has lack of granularity, high friction in use, and the same counterparty risk as the oil dollar when it has to go in vaults and be used with IOUs.

And crypto-currency can't remain decentralized. So again there is no ONE RIGHT WAY.

Never will be.

You are a Marxist because you want a total order to the universe.

Learn to accept the reason we can't have a total order. I explained it already about the speed-of-light must be finite else past and future collapse into the same nothingness.

[r0ach]

You are a Marxist because you want a total order to the universe.

Acknowledging the existence of monopolies doesn't make someone a "Marxist".  That was a ridiculous comment.  I never stated I wanted to be the monopoly owner either.  It's like a sine wave, you have anarchy, the anarchy creates the power vacuum and a strongman takes over, then the strongman's monopoly implodes and breaks back down into anarchy.  Repeat to infinity.

[TPTB_need_war]

You are a Marxist because you want a total order to the universe.

Acknowledging the existence of monopolies doesn't make someone a "Marxist".

Marxists believe that the business cycle can be eliminated. You believe a more perfect money can exist. Same myopia at the highest level of abstraction which is you both don't accept that the universe is composed of partial orders, not totality.

Edit: you also believe in the totality of the elite's "monopoly" control.

[generalizethis]

You are a Marxist because you want a total order to the universe.

Acknowledging the existence of monopolies doesn't make someone a "Marxist".

Marxists believe that the business cycle can be eliminated. You believe a more perfect money can exist. Same myopia at the highest level of abstraction which is you both don't accept that the universe is composed of partial orders, not totality.

http://cnqzu.com/library/Philosophy/neoreaction/Nick%20Land/(1998)%20LAND%20--%20Mechanomics.pdf

[AlexGR]

So no, from a rational point of view, gold doesn't actually make the most sense unless it can be easily converted, or you're living in a pre-industrial revolution civilization.

In most countries gold can be easily converted to local fiat and that makes it a sound alternative currency.

We cannot prescribe a universal rule for gold's attractiveness as a diversification tool because different economies have different relative results.

If you live in the US of A, you know gold was at 1800 and is now at 1300. You are losing, in terms of your local currency, if you bought the top / ATH.

If you live elsewhere, things might be different and gold may be at an ATH right now due to currency devaluation. The gold price chart in AUD, NOK, CAD, INR, RUB, ARS, BRL etc are quite different than the USD chart... Thus gold is waaaay more attractive in certain markets compared to local fiat. Holding local fiat is what doesn't make sense under these circumstances.

[mybitcoin101]

no it wont. its the part of cryptos that people get rich off of

[TPTB_need_war]

mprep needs to be careful about deleting content that is relevant to the thread. Here I have rephrased to make it more clear that my deleted posts were relevant...

Note I had written similar explanations several times, including this published essay (but note I didn't understand at the time of that published essay that gold is just a hedge against government and the hyperinflation is not the normal outcome, which are both facts I learned from Martin Armstrong).

Granted you may be actively trading and planning on stopping out before taking a big loss, sure, but that whole approach is still not really "risk averse" as I would consider the term (in the sense of owning 25% metals, 25% land, etc.)

Correct, because stop losses are losses. They are not diversification.

Anyone who is risk adverse would have a portfolio of something like 25% physical cash, 25% metals, 25% land/rental properties, 25% btc.

Anyone who has more than 25% of their liquid network in crypto (and the rest in instantly illiquid assets such as gold, cash, and land since governments routinely cancel cash, apply capital controls to gold, and can raise taxes egregiously on land causing buyers to run away) at this stage of the imminent global liquidity squeeze as interest rates rise and with the risks of CC failure due to centralization, is either very poor already and gambling with lunch money, or is a high stakes gambler and not a prudent investor.

Related to the thread topic, smooth's point about diversification, and my point that tinfoil hat type of attitude leads to ONE RIGHT WAY myopia in investing:

Anarcho-capitalism is a political philosophy that advocates the elimination of the state in favor of individual sovereignty, private property, and open markets.

Minarchism is a libertarian political philosophy which advocates for a minimal state, that is, a state that acts only on very essential functions, while all other functions are provided by the free market.

I voted that I am a Minanarchist, because I live in reality not delusion.

Crypto-anarchists' delusions lead to a totalitarian State., i.e. these tinfoil hats aren't diversified.

[r0ach]

So no, from a rational point of view, gold doesn't actually make the most sense unless it can be easily converted, or you're living in a pre-industrial revolution civilization.

In most countries gold can be easily converted to local fiat and that makes it a sound alternative currency.

You took my statement completely out of context.  I was talking about a conversion of a commodity/resource to energy, NOT convertibility to fiat.

[AlexGR]

It has to do with the theoretical ideal currency in terms of energy. Gold may not be energy in itself, but if you think about it, gold is proof-of-spent-energy. All metals are. Some need more energy to reach their final state, others less energy. Metals are like tokens of energy. They cannot be turned into energy, but they can be traded to someone who would otherwise need to spend energy to dig them up or process them. On top of that, gold is also universally accepted and converted to local fiat. So you have an indirect connection between energy, commodities and fiat.