r0ach's Cryptomarkets Watch & Scamcoin Observer

[raphma]

...Besides money that you can only spend by converting it to fiat, isn't really an alternative asset. The appeal of gold was you could hope on a plane with it, and someone could convert it in the blackmarket and spend it for real goods. But this isn't going to be possible any more.

I agree with most of what you said, except that quote above.
bitcoin isnt perfect, isnt accepted in many places but its growing...  for example:

http://cointelegraph.com/news/uber-switches-to-bitcoin-in-argentina-after-govt-blocks-uber-credit-cards

[1714645806]

1714645806

[iamnotback]

...Besides money that you can only spend by converting it to fiat, isn't really an alternative asset. The appeal of gold was you could hope on a plane with it, and someone could convert it in the blackmarket and spend it for real goods. But this isn't going to be possible any more.

I agree with most of what you said, except that quote above.
bitcoin isnt perfect, isnt accepted in many places but its growing...  for example:

http://cointelegraph.com/news/uber-switches-to-bitcoin-in-argentina-after-govt-blocks-uber-credit-cards

When China's mining oligarchy can implement MIT's ChainAnchor which turns off your ability to spend unless you comply with your local government's taxation and capital controls, then where Bitcoin is accepted is less relevant than whether it is no longer a permissionless system.

In order for Bitcoin to scale, the mining must become (already is!) centralized. Blockstream's SegWit makes that even more so.

A centralized control over which transactions are allowed, is not an alternative to fiat. It is just fiat by another name or metaphor.

They said Anonymint was crazy in 2013 when he predicted all these things, and yet you all still won't believe that is coming.

[iamnotback]

For r0ach:

Must read.

[TrueAnon]

WBB will only become stronger regardless of halving

Why do you spam so many threads with your off-topic shitcoin pump. Keep that shit in your own official WildButtBaloney threads.

Cause it'll show how an altcoin and biz ecosystem SHOULD work and will even prevail vs. btc and especially vs. the 99% shitcoins out there.  So don't be so butthurt when I try and show something GOOD in the market vs. all the other shit.  Free world nigga.

[iamnotback]

WBB will only become stronger regardless of halving

Why do you spam so many threads with your off-topic shitcoin pump. Keep that shit in your own official WildButtBaloney threads.

Cause it'll show how an altcoin and biz ecosystem SHOULD work and will even prevail vs. btc and especially vs. the 99% shitcoins out there.  So don't be so butthurt when I try and show something GOOD in the market vs. all the other shit.  Free world nigga.

You haven't shown anything. Please go pump your shitcoin in your own thread.

Yeah free world, but at least post something informational and relevant to the thread you are posting in. You could at least relate some specifics about WBB that is relevant to the discussion we've been having here. Your opinion that WBB will become stronger doesn't tell us anything informational. Give us some valid reasoning so it isn't just "opinions are like assholes, everyone has one".

[r0ach]

When China's mining oligarchy can implement MIT's ChainAnchor which turns off your ability to spend unless you comply with your local government's taxation and capital controls, then where Bitcoin is accepted is less relevant than whether it is no longer a permissionless system.

This is not a valid criticism that is Bitcoin specific due to what I said a few pages back.  It's a problem inherent to ANY cryptocurrency you can possibly create, whether it's Bitcoin, Monero, Zcash, or Anonymintcoin:

It's inevitable that an alias system would be developed for any successful cryptocurrency.  The alias system would de-anonymize transactions of even the most perfect system because...that's what it's designed to do by voluntary compliance.  But, governments would then mandate all transactions be routed through the alias system or you're considered to be a criminal launderer.  So it seems no matter what type of cryptocurrency you develop, you will be forced to use the government scaffolding alias system regardless, which transforms the cryptocurrency into an entirely different thing than what it's designed as.

Governments just say, hey, fuck you, you gotta route all your transactions through our 2nd tier system, nullifying whatever it is your 1st tier system does.  This brings you back to re-examine the point emphasized by Ted Kaczynski about technology, where he states it's a net negative game for humans.  It's always possible he's right and nothing you can create in the digital space can be a net positive for freedom.  This is stuff that I already know well, but I still dabble in Bitcoin because it's not a debt based, usury based, or fractional reserve currency.  No matter what they do to it, I don't think they can make it worse than the fiat system that already exists.  

Yes, yes, I'm aware, you say they are going to use it to track people and tax 90% of all wealth.  That's a problem that already exists before Bitcoin, and Bitcoin honestly doesn't improve their ability to do so much, if at all.  Most transactions can't be done on-chain and will be done either off-chain or 2nd tier systems that have the exact same traceability as systems that already exist.

[kiklo]

Here's a riddle for the Anonymizer:

It's inevitable that an alias system would be developed for any successful cryptocurrency.  The alias system would de-anonymize transactions of even the most perfect system because...that's what it's designed to do by voluntary compliance.  But, governments would then mandate all transactions be routed through the alias system or you're considered to be a criminal launderer.  So it seems no matter what type of cryptocurrency you develop, you will be forced to use the government scaffolding alias system regardless, which transforms the cryptocurrency into an entirely different thing than what it's designed as.

Which is how we arrive at:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9JgvkWRSq7Q&feature=youtu.be&t=47m33s

But with Monero my snoopy neighbors won't be able to see what I'm doing while with Bitcoin they will.  What you're describing is at least no worse than the current system.  I'd count preserving the status quo as a victory of sorts considering the alternatives.

Unless you give your Neighbors your BTC address or transactions opID, they can't tell what you are doing with BTC either.  
Or
If they are really nosy, they will just place a keyboard and screen logger on your PC while you're at work, and then no matter what you use they will know it.  

Only real solution is that you have to move away from those neighbors.  

 

FYI:
Are they sleeping with your wife too?

Dumb example maybe but we're talking about everyone having to use a registered alias, if people know it they can track you and everyone you transact with will know it.

What you want is true anonymity, which can not be achieved with any online crypto.
Even with BTC you could generate only 1 address to be used with 1 individual, the problem comes with registration requirements.
Even if monero code is not cracked in time, just using it's wallet shows your IP address , which can be directly back traced to you.
Tor is a joke designed by the US Navy, there is a backdoor it will not protect your IP address from discovery.

Here is what happens , some major crime occurs, The FBI or Interpol or Joint Operations , check every single IP attached to a Monero wallet ,
including exchanges , and force the exchanges to hand over IP logs and any email address or real names attached to said IP for a given time frame.
Even if you used Tor, they use their backdoor to track your real IP and show up at your apartment.
Now you know you did not commit the crime so you give them every view key you have so they can double check it and clear your name.
So now the Government agencies now have every single piece of data from every transaction (basically a Digital DNA of you ) and later you receive an audit from the tax agency for unreported income.  
Problem with Monero is Government Compliance is built in with the View Keys , which will be required by some new law otherwise you will be branded a criminal.

For True Anon,
No IP address, No Location with Cameras, No Locations that Satellites can view, basically no identifiable information on you or the vehicles you arrived in.
Even your Appearance must be disguised,
CIA version is a Patsy's identifiable information is used, and they kill the poor guy at the end of the OP without paying him or reclaiming the payment so there is no record.

Heck Monero , won't even stop your neighbors from knowing about those dirty magazines you get in the mail that come in brown paper bags from Big Butts & Long Legs Magazine if your Mail Man has a big mouth.

 

FYI:
The real problem is that the people of the world allow Gov registration requirements and define logs be kept.
Until those laws are changes to remove required registration , True Anon is a Pipe Dream for Online activities.
Offchain Transactions where someone has covered their tracks and destroy the history tracking them , is the closest way possible to achieve True Anon.

FYI2:
Funny Tip , when connected to anything Online, did you Spoof your network card's physical address, or leave the one that is default.
If you left the default, that physical address is stored in a database where anyone can see the make model & serial number of that PC.
Oh and you purchased your PC with a credit card which can be cross referenced with that serial number.
See the game is rigged against true anon, on levels most never even conceive.  
You can thank j edgar hoover for starting this insanity.

[Hueristic]

...FYI2:
Funny Tip , when connected to anything Online, did you Spoof your network card's physical address, or leave the one that is default.
If you left the default, that physical address is stored in a database where anyone can see the make model & serial number of that PC.
Oh and you purchased your PC with a credit card which can be cross referenced with that serial number.
See the game is rigged against true anon, on levels most never even conceive.  
You can thank j edgar hoover for starting this insanity.

FYI even if you have.

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2015/02/17/kaspersky_labs_equation_group/ 

[iamnotback]

The broader picture of worldwide declining interest rates has Central Banks
acting like beaters on a grouse moor, driving investors toward US corporate
debt to the benefit of global corporations...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-07/reason-relentless-scramble-us-corporate-debt-one-chart

Destroying the nation-states and sending the world's capital into the multi-nationals. Now please tell me why that wouldn't be well matched to the plans of the Bilderberg group for a world government beholden to their corporations.

And it will all come flowing in through the USD and US stock market, because that is still the most liquid due to being the reserve currency. Refer to the Armstrong quotes upthread where I replied to aminorex.

And the implications for Bitcoin?

It has no impact on Bitcoin. Bitcoin is not liquid or large enough to talk to any of that $trillions of capital.

Bitcoin exists to preoccupy us nerds on a technology that can only become centralized (Bitcoin = ChinaCoin), while we might have otherwise actually have/had the capability of providing the world a viable technology currency option that could grow enough mass adoption to be large enough. But the we are in late innings already and the time and opportunity are slipping away.

Bitcoin exists to be sure that no nation nor entity can break away by offering a digital currency alternative. Bitcoin is a trap and trojan horse designed to be ideological with the promise of decentralization, but in reality that is an obfuscation and it is not.

Bitcoin exists so that all of us who are awake and want to change the system incriminate ourselves by mixing our ownership of tokens with tokens which have been used for money laundering and other illegal actions, with the entire history recorded publicly while the NSA saves all our IP address activity in their Utah data center, so that later all of us who were awake can be destroyed with clawbacks taking away our homes and every thing.

Bitcoin is very dangerous to be involved with. Ditto gold if there is any record you have it, and if there is no record then you won't be able to dispose of it later when it becomes illegal to dispose of gold without a paper trail. And of course when you do dispose of it correctly, you will (later) be taxed so highly that most of your gains will be wiped out.

Our brave new world. 666 and 1984 approaching. Enjoy.

[iamnotback]

When China's mining oligarchy can implement MIT's ChainAnchor which turns off your ability to spend unless you comply with your local government's taxation and capital controls, then where Bitcoin is accepted is less relevant than whether it is no longer a permissionless system.

This is not a valid criticism that is Bitcoin specific due to what I said a few pages back.  It's a problem inherent to ANY cryptocurrency you can possibly create, whether it's Bitcoin, Monero, Zcash, or Anonymintcoin:

1. The protocol change can in theory eventually be implemented on Bitcoin (and even Monero once it scales up) because Satoshi's block chain design centralizes. With a block chain design which doesn't centralize, it becomes more difficult to implement such a protocol change. A block chain should be practically unforkable. One of the issues that my design fixes, is that the miners are everyone, not just a few farms in known locations. The governments are not very successful when they try to regulate end users, because some people are hard-headed and there are always outliers who disobey and take their chances which causes others to become emboldened and copy them. The government can't stop what becomes popular and which is a leaky sieve (e.g. decentralized file sharing). They need a smaller set of entities (the miners) to regulate. Don't give up yet, I still have something to offer as a potential solution. Right now I am in the gym 3 hours intensely every other day, trying to will power my body back to condition that is conducive to sort of work I had done in my better years. I am sore and tired sometimes, but also I have significant improvement. I am also off on a tangent right now of trying to get my gf situated in either a job or small business so she is not disturbing me all day when I am on the computer. I need silence here at the house so I can code. She brings the dog upstairs and doing facebook on her mobile phone and every 2 - 3 hours some request such as "can we go buy ice cream". My health has improved a lot, but I am in the phase of grinding through the soreness of 3 hour barbell, boxing workouts and dealing with the soreness and my gut and skin are going through various phases of transformation towards healing but I am not yet at 100% health. We apparently don't cure a multi-year autoimmune illness 100% instantly. At least I don't look so frail now, and I very intense in my workouts (flames coming out of nose sort of intensity and not so incredibly exhausted the days after as before during the height of my illness). It is a battle of will power and discipline (which has been lacking on my side since I joined this forum, but I understand it is because of the illness I was dealing with).

2. Another strategy is to gain mass adoption of microtransactions because it is much more difficult for the government to prosecute billions of tiny transactions. We will bankrupt the government if they spend $1000 prosecuting every $0.001 transaction. The strategy I've been planning out is multi-pronged and it is economically clever.

3. If we have a form of privacy/anonymity for a while at least, and it is off chain (meaning even though the NSA records all traffic, they can't unmask the mixing even with analysis although of course this can break down with metadata as for any other anonymity technology although at least the IP address metadata is automatically mixed unlike for example Cryptonote and Zcash which require integration with Tor or I2P which are probably known honeypots of the NSA), then it can't be later unwound so that gives us a tool to use interim during some or most of the coming crisis. Even if the government ends up finally gaining control and the upper hand, that interim tool would have been available to us. I don't view anonymity against the national security agencies as very practical, except if you are very, very clever, resourceful, and careful (and even then all your effort might fail). So I think rather we should be looking for a way to make a currency that the masses can use. TPTB+Socialism are going after the millionaires and there is really nothing we can do to stop them. I think I can help the masses (which in my grandiose dream might cause them to reject socialism), which is what the wisdom in the Bible says to do. My suggestion is if you are millionaire or earn a lot of gains speculating, pay your taxes and do it all legally. Go find yourself a tax-free jurisdiction. Change your citizenship or residence accordingly. Play the game wisely.

4. Liquidity is a key attribute. For this we need scaling and we need a feature for mass adoption. This is why I have been working on microtransactions because it the feature that fiat and credit cards can't do. And I think it has huge mass adoption potential (in spite of the argument that says users don't want to pay per use and prefer subscriptions, I have a retort to that...).

It's inevitable that an alias system would be developed for any successful cryptocurrency.  The alias system would de-anonymize transactions of even the most perfect system because...that's what it's designed to do by voluntary compliance.  But, governments would then mandate all transactions be routed through the alias system or you're considered to be a criminal launderer.  So it seems no matter what type of cryptocurrency you develop, you will be forced to use the government scaffolding alias system regardless, which transforms the cryptocurrency into an entirely different thing than what it's designed as.

Governments just say, hey, fuck you, you gotta route all your transactions through our 2nd tier system, nullifying whatever it is your 1st tier system does.  This brings you back to re-examine the point emphasized by Ted Kaczynski about technology, where he states it's a net negative game for humans.  It's always possible he's right and nothing you can create in the digital space can be a net positive for freedom.  This is stuff that I already know well, but I still dabble in Bitcoin because it's not a debt based, usury based, or fractional reserve currency.  No matter what they do to it, I don't think they can make it worse than the fiat system that already exists.  

Yes, yes, I'm aware, you say they are going to use it to track people and tax 90% of all wealth.  That's a problem that already exists before Bitcoin, and Bitcoin honestly doesn't improve their ability to do so much, if at all.  Most transactions can't be done on-chain and will be done either off-chain or 2nd tier systems that have the exact same traceability as systems that already exist.

The Unibomber might be correct ultimately. Any way, I don't worry about creating an heirloom. I try to attack the problem the best that I can, and we will just see how it works out. I don't see any other option. We can't just go live in the wilderness and not use money, as that fights against all economies-of-maximum division-of-labor (including economies-of-scale).

In some respects, TPTB might view my work as a technological advance that aids the movement towards digital currency. I presume there are different factions of TPTB that have different vested interests.

The way to unite everyone, is to have a system that can't be owned by anyone. I think that was the fundamental ideological insight of Satoshi. But we need to make that a reality if possible.

[iamnotback]

Apologies for the triple post. As always I want to reiterate that I view Bitcoin as very important as at least the reserve currency of altcoins.

I tend to try to view every phenomenon as having some natural purpose.

Even for example Monero/Cryptonote has a purpose, as this has been one of the technological signposts along the way (and maybe more than that, I don't try to claim I am omniscient). Even Dash/Iota, etc.. have for example had an impact of my work, and other effects.

I don't say try to state only one thing. If nature wasn't diverse, then we'd be facing a Dark Age or potentially extinction.

[wiked1]

If nature wasn't diverse, then we'd be facing a Dark Age or potentially extinction.

This is probably your best qoute to date

[iamnotback]

My summary of our investing future from an Armstrong perspective. There is some relevance to discussions we've had upthread.

Watch.

[r0ach]

My summary of our investing future from an Armstrong perspective. There is some relevance to discussions we've had upthread.

Again, for the millionth time, you completely ignore black swan events and act like everyone can trade this market in an orderly walk to the exits.  Things like currency revaluations are black swan events themselves and happen overnight.  They're impossible to trade unless you're a government insider like George Soros.  The synopsis of your game plan is basically - don't buy anything, hold only USD cash, then you can get your 20% deflationary discount at some point (which might not even happen), except if you time it wrong, you not only get no discount, you also lose everything.  

What you're saying is not something any sane investor would do.  A real investor would invest for the endgame (things like metals, bitcoin, etc) and start buying now, then dollar cost average if any opportunity arises.  You're advocating a complete no hedge gamble.  When probably 95% of people reading this aren't good traders, and of the remaining 5%, most of those wouldn't even get the trade right, you have to notice that this is not actually valid investing advice.

This is why things like Bitcoin and metals have defied your expectations, like when you said Bitcoin wouldn't go up at $450.  You did not take into account that big money can't afford to stay out of the market while gambling on the most opportune time to enter.  They have the most to lose and have to be hedged.

Good luck getting some huge discount on things like metals and Bitcoin (we already know the Bitcoin chart is similar to this one) while attempting to time a rush to the exits with current charts that look like this:

[iamnotback]

My summary of our investing future from an Armstrong perspective. There is some relevance to discussions we've had upthread.

Again, for the millionth time, you completely ignore black swan events and act like everyone can trade this market in an orderly walk to the exits.  Things like currency revaluations are black swan events themselves and happen overnight.  They're impossible to trade unless you're a government insider like George Soros.  The synopsis of your game plan is basically - don't buy anything, hold only USD cash, then you can get your 20% deflationary discount at some point (which might not even happen), except if you time it wrong, you not only get no discount, you also lose everything.  

What you're saying is not something any sane investor would do.  A real investor would invest for the endgame (things like metals, bitcoin, etc) and start buying now, then dollar cost average if any opportunity arises.  You're advocating a complete no hedge gamble.  When probably 95% of people reading this aren't good traders, and of the remaining 5%, most of those wouldn't even get the trade right, you have to notice that this is not actually valid investing advice.

This is why things like Bitcoin and metals have defied your expectations, like when you said Bitcoin wouldn't go up at $450.  You did not take into account that big money can't afford to stay out of the market while gambling on the most opportune time to enter.  They have the most to lose and have to be hedged.

Good luck getting some huge discount on things like metals and Bitcoin (we already know the Bitcoin chart is similar to this one) while attempting to time a rush to the exits with current charts that look like this:

r0ach, neither Bitcoin nor gold have defied my expectations. Why do you speak dishonestly about me?

First of all, I was buying gold and silver back in 2005, and then I was attempting to sell at the top at $21. Unfortunately, because I was traveling between the USA and the Philippines in late 2006, I had Jason Hommel hold my metals and he refused to sell my silver for me when I asked him to at $21. I had to have him ship my metals to First State Depository in Delaware, and then I was finally able to sell at $13. On top of that, a 1000oz bar which I had ordered from Tulving before the $21 peak, had arrived with the serial number chiselled off, so then I was unable to sell it and he wouldn't honor the price at the moment and instead forced me to return the bar for a replacement which took something like a month to complete. That was one an example of why physical metals are absolutely illiquid and unsuitable for trading.

So I was buying Comex 1000oz bars below $9 and minting rounds and selling them, many of them to rpietila in Finland. I had amassed 18,000oz of silver.

Then when silver hit $20s in Oct. 2010, I made my famous prediction that precisely predicted the timing and price that silver would rise to $45 and then fall back again to $26:

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article23786.html

Again the problem was I had shipped my physical metals to the Philippines at the only repository available which was run by European who was a former manager of Metanor's refining operation. He had a small refinery in Manila for gold coming in from the small mines in Luzon.

He ended up extracting about $50,000 out of my holdings through a series of slopping accounting, delays in providing account statements, delays on making requested trades, etc.. I was unable to hold my metals personally in Mindanao, because I didn't have the proper security here.

So he also made it impossible for me to sell at $48 even though several others in the Hommel forum sold precisely at that price based on my prediction and telling to sell at that time. I was finally able to sell some of my silver at $36, and then eventually the remaining in the high $20s. Armstrong's prediction for a long decline from 2011 forward (which I became aware of only in 2012), also aided my resolve to liquidate (in addition to realizing my savings was being stolen from me due to problem of who could store my metals).

In 2012 and then again Jan 2013, I was discussing Bitcoin with rpietila. In 2011, I was preoccupied on the start of my health problem, family problems (my kids were still with me at that time), living location problems, and also I was trying to code up a dating site and try to get some income rolling in because I hadn't had any income from my s/w work since roughly 2006 when my coolpage.com sales had finally tapered off to near 0. In May 2012 was when I was suddenly in ER with a bursted severe (life threatening) acute peptic ulcer, my ex showed up unannounced when I was so ill and yanked my kids, and the combination had done something to my state-of-mind (my adrenal glands were on overdrive and I was constantly under the feeling of "fight or flight" with my cortisol constantly elevated) that I had followed Graham Summers into a short bet on the Chinese markets and I tripled down on the bet ended up losing $75,000 in July/August. It was after this, that I started to follow Armstrong much more closely and realized if I had followed him I wouldn't have lost that $75,000.

In Jan 2013, rpietila and I discussed Bitcoin when it was around $10 or so, and I told him it was poised to go much higher and I approved of his decision to go all in. He sold $100,000 of silver and bought 10,000 BTC. He went from being less wealthy than me, to being a multi-millionaire. I told him that I really wanted to follow him into BTC, but that I had depleted all of my speculative investment capital (various reasons including the ones mentioned above plus for example my ex extracting $2000+ monthly from me during that 2012 - 2014 period once she had the kids back in the USA and also the expenses of my health debacle). I had just enough capital to support my cash flow requirements through 2014 and I had hoped I could code up something by that time. Unfortunately, the illness became chronic and I basically fell off the cliff into the abyss of non-production and my remaining savings dwindled away until I reached the point where I am now entirely bankrupt and my remaining cash flow (provided by an investor) is dwindling away as well.

As Bitcoin moved past $1000, my relationship with rpietila had soured because he became something like a King pronouncing that Monero was the only altcoin worth investing in and as well he was basically telling investors to buy BTC in the $600 - $700 level. I became negative on both of those investments and I was correct, with BTC falling to my predicted target of $150 and Monero also collapsing after rpietila's initial pump.

I also called many of BTC meandering moves interim, and for example one very public one was when I said in May 2015, that BTC would rise to $320 in the summer and fall back down again. Some people in this forum can vouch for that as they successfully shorted at $320. I was thinking about shorting, because I was talked out of by someone who told me I couldn't trust bitfinex.

I even called the moved in Ethereum correctly since February when it began its move up.

My one error in BTC was I expected both gold and BTC to make their final lows in Q1 2016, and wasn't looking at the long-term BTC chart since mid last year and observing the long U bottom that had formed. I did notice that recently when a friend asked me if there was any chance BTC could move to $1200 on this current move up, and I told him yes it was possible because a U bottom pattern had potentially formed since I had last looked at it carefully.

On the future we face now, while you were holding BTC all the way down from $1200 to $150 in your basement with your hunting rifle locked and loaded, others have been making enormous gains trading altcoins and other investments. You tinfoil hats are so easy to humiliate, and I picture in my mind Elmer Fudd.

Black swans are going to drive the international capital into the US dollar which is still by orders-of-magnitude the more liquid reserve currency. If you deny this reality, then I will label you a tinfoil hat who is hunkered down in his basement.

No I am not advocating holding USD only. Right now, if I had speculative capital I would be holding BTC and US stocks. If BTC hits $1200 this year, I would sell at least half and if US stocks are still low, buy them. I would not be buying speculative gold now, although of course any physical I wanted for long-term holding I would have long since bought at $1050 which had since 2012 at least been Armstrong's target for the first low reversal. For further gold buys, I would be waiting for gold to make its final low at $850 after the stampede into the US dollar and US stocks has run its course.

I would also be keeping my eye out for an altcoin that can make another run like Ethereum did. I would be looking for the right combination of features and pricing. Unfortunately I have no speculative capital to invest at this time.

For cash, I would (and do) hold USD.

If gold and Bitcoin make their corrections after this current runup, then I would look to increasing holdings, but again I would also be holding some US stocks and also making altcoin investments if they have the right attributes and timing.

As for gold mining investments, there is no way I would touch them again. Even in the 1930s, most of them failed. We only hear about the ones that did exceptionally well.

And we not going to see extremely high gold prices while the USD and US stocks still remain viable. Period. So farting around with gold mining stocks is a good way to lose your money as I did. I already made the mistake of investing in them in 2006 and 2007. I understand altcoins much better than I can possibly understand the corruption of these exploration and junior gold mining facades. Doug Casey and Rick Rule can lick my butthole.

Let me add this saga of the collapsing global economy and a monetary reset is going to transpire over many years. During this time, I don't want to be hunkered down in my basement with my stacks of End of the World hodlrings. The future is about being productive and generating or investing in new developments. So much opportunity for growth over here in Asia. So much work that needs to be done on block chain technology in altcoins. Etc.. Your single-minded basement End of the World blackswan paranoia is contrary to the way great wealth is generated and sustained.

[r0ach]

r0ach, neither Bitcoin nor gold have defied my expectations. Why do you speak dishonestly about me?

You said in this very thread you were dumping your last remaining Bitcoins (you said 6 or something) around $450 because you said it wasn't going up.

Black swans are going to drive the international capital into the US dollar which is still by orders-of-magnitude the more liquid reserve currency. If you deny this reality, then I will label you a tinfoil hat who is hunkered down in his basement.

This is a complete fantasy IMO.  There's no reason for everyone to pile into a worthless fiat currency as a safe haven when things like metals and Bitcoin exist.  Sure, SOME people will, but not everyone.  USD is overbought and things like metals and Bitcoin are underbought.  For your theory to be true, the vast majority of the world has to be composed of "dumb money".  The amount of nations ideologically opposed to buying US debt money are also pretty high.  

When the US talks about locking up Saudi money to prevent them from withdrawing or operating in stocks, things like that create a rush to metals and Bitcoin.  All the Arabs and people with questionable relations to the US (lots of Asia, Russia, South America, etc) are not going all in on the US dollar.  This will be more of a breakdown of US monopoly on finance rather than a rush into US finance.  

You're operating under the assumption that the US can militarily hold every other nation on earth hostage and prevent them from divesting from the dollar in the middle of the biggest economic crisis ever?  The US can't go to war with every nation at once.  Russia and China are nuclear powers, they don't have to listen.  Other nations will go rogue as well.  It's not possible to maintain USD monopoly through this.

All the flight of capital really is is a search for yield.  There is no yield to be had in fake paper products.  The act of not losing money is good enough for most people right now.  This means they either have to mega hedge into lots of things they perceive as safe, or become market makers for what they conceive are underutilized markets.  From the chart I posted, you can tell metals are currently an underutilized market in finance (or artificially repressed, take your pick).  Bitcoin is another highly underutilized market for the cap it could be serving.

[iamnotback]

r0ach, neither Bitcoin nor gold have defied my expectations. Why do you speak dishonestly about me?

I'm not making anything up.  You said in this very thread you were dumping your last remaining Bitcoins (you said 6 or something) around $450 because you said it wasn't going up.

I told you that I sold my last remaining BTC (thought it was 3 BTC, but actually it was only 1.8 BTC) at $450 because I have no speculative capital to invest and I am only conserving cash flow at this time in order to make sure I can pay my bills so I can code. I have to take a double from the $200s whence I was given the BTC and lockin that cash because my risk profile is entirely different from someone who is well diversified and who is speculating with capital they can afford to lose.

I have told you so many damn times, yet you continue running around gloating that I sold 1.8 BTC at $450 (that trade btw I am quite happy with).

While you never talk about whether you sold at $1200 or held it going down to $150. As if you've made every perfect trade.   Being a permabull works on the way up and doesn't work on the way down.

I also told you in my prior post (and I had alluded this in upthread posts) that I had not been monitoring the long-term BTC chart since June 2015 and thus I hadn't noticed the long U bottom had formed. I hadn't updated my analysis since last summer. Had I more than a couple of BTC to sell, I would have made it a priority to study in more detail. When a friend with more BTC asked me if it could go to $1200, I took the time to study it more carefully and that was when I told him and posted upthread here that a U bottom had potentially formed and the second option was we could be headed to $1200 meandering over the rest of this year. BTC then moved up to the handle of the cup and now we are meandering before the next potential burst up to $1200 resistance (there may also be some resistance in the $700- $800 level).

I hope I don't have to explain this to you again.

Black swans are going to drive the international capital into the US dollar which is still by orders-of-magnitude the more liquid reserve currency. If you deny this reality, then I will label you a tinfoil hat who is hunkered down in his basement.

This is a complete fantasy IMO.  There's no reason for everyone to pile into a worthless fiat currency as a safe haven when things like metals and Bitcoin exist.

You apparently don't understand a damn thing about liquidity and size. I already explained to you upthread why the $trillions can't buy physical gold and BTC.

You are apparently simpleton tinfoil hat and not a sophisticated investor.

Edit: the masses in the USA are not any where near to the stage of buying gold or BTC. They will pile into the US stock market once DJIA gets past 23k as they will want to get on that "sure thing" bandwagon bubble. Ditto on BTC's next bubble. They won't pile on to gold until many years from now. You need to come out of your basement and see how normal people view the world currently.

Sure, SOME people will, but not everyone.  USD is overbought and things like metals and Bitcoin are underbought.  For your theory to be true, the vast majority of the world has to be composed of "dumb money".

You need to come up from your basement sometimes and learn from a sophisticated former $2 trillion hedge fund manager:

COMMENT: Dear Martin,

Another element that strongly supports your view is that US equities will fly at some point in the future. If you take the trailing 10y avg real earnings yield from S&P500 (you can easily get them from Shiller’s site) and you normalise it by the 10 year US yield you get the attached chart.

We are at the same level of pre WWII when USA was an emerging market, now if we assume the normal range being between 1 and 1.5, rate may double and we would still be at the bottom of the range. This is without even taking into account any strong dollar cycle or sovereign debt crisis.

Having said that, earnings have been softening in dollar terms over the last few years but with a raising dollar which may have pushed people totally in the wrong direction.

Thank you very much for all you do.



REPLY: Yes. This is one of the views we track as well, but it is highly controversial. Many view the P/E ratio as proof that the market is overvalued, but the DOT.COM produced a P/E at 50. During a crisis when people are afraid to park money, the P/E will exceed 100 as it did with the 2007 crash.



Overall, there is a deep reflection of how cheap the market is today with low trading volume. It will not take much to shift capital flows from bonds to equities and this has nothing to do with its cheap price, growth, value, or any of the other scenarios that people rely on. We are in a different place — the preservation of capital.

The amount of nations ideologically opposed to buying US debt money are also pretty high.  

When the US talks about locking up Saudi money to prevent them from withdrawing or operating in stocks, things like that create a rush to metals and Bitcoin.  All the Arabs and people with questionable relations to the US (lots of Asia, Russia, South America, etc) are not going all in the US dollar.  This will be more of a breakdown of US monopoly on finance rather than a rush into US finance.  

You're operating under the assumption that the US can militarily hold every other nation on earth hostage and prevent them from divesting from the dollar in the middle of the biggest economic crisis ever?  The US can't go to war with every nation at once.  Russia and China are nuclear powers, they don't have to listen.  Other nations will go rogue as well.  It's not possible to maintain USD monopoly through this.

You are in a tinfoil hat delusion.

You understand nothing about large capital and liquidity. The oil producing nations are having cash flow problems now that oil has dropped in price. That is why OPEC failed to limit production.

Etc, etc, etc.. You need come out of your basement and read Armstrong. Or don't. I don't care. I have to go do my work, else I will end up destitute. I don't have time to argue and explain to you every detail. You need to read more outside of the tinfoil delusion magazines in your basement.

[r0ach]

You need to come up from your basement sometimes and learn from a sophisticated former $2 trillion hedge fund manager:

This appeal to authority nonsense is not a valid argument.  You claim that people are trying to preserve capital and looking for safe havens to do it.  Stocks have far higher counterparty risk than Bitcoin and metals.  They can just suspend trading on the market at a whim.  Stocks are complete garbage as a "safe haven".  Stocks are more like an unsafe haven.

You say things like metals and Bitcoin can't absorb enough flight capital so they're not valid LOL.  HELLO?  That's the most bullish thing on earth you could say for the future prices of Bitcoin and metals.  Armstrong has brainwashed himself through constant repetition of playing the Jew's paper wealth shuffling game and thinks that fraudulent game will just continue forever.  

In the really old days, most people considered the stock market a giant scam.  We will likely return to those days when the value drops in half in a short duration.  The alternative would be more QE to try and prop markets up, but the effect of that is waning because EVERYONE knows it's a bubble, so things like Bitcoin and metals would benefit even more from the QE.  It's inevitable there's a rush to the exits for more sound money while the QE bubble assets collapse.

(fyi my metals history was going all in on gold at $430)

[generalizethis]

When someone finds a way to short the entire world economy, call me. It's just being moved from one hand to the other (but becoming less handy).

Gold  :

BTC  

The new network will need to feed all those competing for resources--not all those resources want, or even should be, easily tracked or be worth their (market manipulated) weight in gold. If cryptonight was developed by the NSA (who knows), it was with the purpose of destroying China's track-it money. Freemarkets wreak havoc on closed systems, no matter if they're hybrid capitalism or not--once you close it, the capitalistic (feed me, feed me more, more, more!) system isolates the cancer and grafts resources as best it can without letting the non-capitalist contagion grow into anything but competitive motivation. Funny that there are a group of people that think you can destroy capitalism by over-feeding it (the housing crisis showed human emotion kicks-in and reacts by limiting the damage while the machine gets more efficient and stronger), but I don't think they counted on space exploration, and compared to what we have now, infinite resources as far as imagination can see.

The machine will press on and it's just a battle for who thinks they are behind the wheel. To put it another way. If you remember the conversation we were having on whether ai can be creative, Shelby, I figured out that if you create a machine that can adjust its programming, and this is important, force it to fight for resources against other thinking machines (humans or otherwise) you get creativity (unless you want to define it in metaphysical terms and get all misty eyed over human consciousness).

[/rant/observation/whatever]

[kiklo]

, but I don't think they counted on space exploration, and compared to what we have now, infinite resources as far as imagination can see.

 

What percentage of the world's population has electricity?
An estimated 79 percent of the people in the Third World -- the 50 poorest nations -- have no access to electricity, despite decades of international development work.

Does the world have enough resources for all, Sure does.
Could be a Utopia.

But the evil ones always limit access to those resources to increase their own wealth.
North Korea is a good example, their people are starving but their leader is fat.
Bad Management especially considering they are next to the ocean.  

 

FYI:
Riddle for you,
US went to the Moon & Back with 1969-1972 Technology.
Why is it , that no other country with 2016 Technology has been able to send a living man to the moon and back.
Clue : Van Allen Radiation Belt