r0ach's Cryptomarkets Watch & Scamcoin Observer

[Johnny Mnemonic]

1. When no whale is supporting the volume and price by manipulating with his tokens, then the price will decline and thus a whale will be able to accumulate low and then begin manipulating. So preventing manipulation is really difficult. Monero seems to have been able to do it, by selling "holier than thou" Jim Jones koolaid locking their supporters into a perpetually underperforming token but most other tokens aren't able to achieve this Zen masochism.

You're saying Monero avoids manipulation because the supporters think their coin is the best? I'm honestly trying to understand where you're coming from.

If Monero has prevented any manipulation in the markets (I'm not convinced it has), it probably has more to do with the lack of premine or ICO that would give a single party the resources to do it. In XMR's case, the manipulator would have to play with his own money.

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[iamnotback]

1. When no whale is supporting the volume and price by manipulating with his tokens, then the price will decline and thus a whale will be able to accumulate low and then begin manipulating. So preventing manipulation is really difficult. Monero seems to have been able to do it, by selling "holier than thou" Jim Jones koolaid locking their supporters into a perpetually underperforming token but most other tokens aren't able to achieve this Zen masochism.

You're saying Monero avoids manipulation because the supporters think their coin is the best? I'm honestly trying to understand where you're coming from.

If Monero has prevented any manipulation in the markets (I'm not convinced it has), it probably has more to do with the lack of premine or ICO that would give a single party the resources to do it. In XMR's case, the manipulator would have to play with his own money.

Agreed, and also I am thinking the price did not drop enough to incentivize a manipulator to accumulate very cheaply.  And also any manipulator knows he will be up against very savvy, hawk-eyed traders who will take advantage of him.

So my (naive, non-expert) guess is no whale manipulator of XMR.

My "holier than thou" point is only that I think there is a lot of idealogical desire to hold XMR despite the the lack of TO DA MOON performance.

I am becoming much more pragmatic (results talk, BS walks, discard the underperforming), and not just about this aspect, I mean everything (and not just CC either, I really mean everything in my life). No pain, no gain, but results required, e.g. 3 hours in the gym, but I can feel and see the results.

Don't expect much results from foruming. The less said with more incision, the more effective.

[iamnotback]

Here's a riddle for the Anonymizer:

It's inevitable that an alias system would be developed for any successful cryptocurrency.  The alias system would de-anonymize transactions of even the most perfect system because...that's what it's designed to do by voluntary compliance.  But, governments would then mandate all transactions be routed through the alias system or you're considered to be a criminal launderer.  So it seems no matter what type of cryptocurrency you develop, you will be forced to use the government scaffolding alias system regardless, which transforms the cryptocurrency into an entirely different thing than what it's designed as.

Which is how we arrive at:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9JgvkWRSq7Q&feature=youtu.be&t=47m33s

IMO this segment is the most astute, which basically says the only utility of Bitcoin thus far is skirting regulations:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9JgvkWRSq7Q#t=53m40s

Yesterday we couldn't even open a bank account for my gf, because they need to know her source of funds. I said I will provide the funds ($500), they said they couldn't allow that. Finally we worked out that if I send her money via AML compliant money transfer system (Xoom.com which is now owned by Paypal) then they will allow her to open a bank account. I asked them what happened to the bank secrecy law in the Philippines and they said that AML still applies. So just fucking forget hiding your money. TPTB have even got the entire Philippines (one of the most unregulated countries in the world just 10 years ago) to sign on the terrorism false flag crap.

TPTB will allow a privacy coin and use it for themselves so they can hide their wealth, but they will demand they have the viewkey for all of us. Btw, the best technology for anonymity appears to be Zcash, because the anonymity set is the all tokens. But I don't yet know how the viewkey will work on Zcash, someone may need to fork the technology and add a better viewkey. Monero/Cryptonote/RingCT is a weaker technology and overlapping rings could in theory break the anonymity. That is why I didn't appreciate your bullshit when you tried to pump Monero as being better than Zcash.

The only possible way to counter TPTB, is if the masses want something which TPTB can't give them. The masses want privacy, but they don't want anonymity and to destruct taxes, governance, and socialism. I argued to generalizethis recently that just paying our tax on each transaction anonymously would not be sufficient, because governance is a power vacuum (winner-take-all) and since we will never have a uniform distribution of wealth, it will always be the case that the peons want TPTB to steal from the collective on their behalf and thus it will always be the case that TPTB must know what all the millionaires are doing so they can keep them down and prevent them from rising to compete with TPTB. This is why anonymity without a mandatory viewkey for TPTB will not be a sustainable nor mass adopted direction.

And this is why you can never be a millionaire and not adhere to TPTB's control. And of course where this all ends up eventually is precisely as it says in Revelation with all the wealth stored on the mountain in Israel and the destruction of man and his system here on earth.

Add:

I am thinking the real mass adoption utility of CC will be microtransactions and then some offchain form of anonymity (privacy). Utility of smart block chains will be an improved form a DAO.

[kiklo]

Add:

I am thinking the real mass adoption utility of CC will be microtransactions and then some offchain form of anonymity (privacy). Utility of smart block chains will be an improved form a DAO.

Agreed.
True Anon will only be possible through Offchain Transactions, at some point all visible transactions (no matter how mixed),
will be cross referenced by some quantum computer to coordinate the exact transactions data. 


 

[wiked1]

Btw, the best technology for anonymity appears to be Zcash, because the anonymity set is the all tokens. But I don't yet know how the viewkey will work on Zcash, someone may n

If you are referring to zerocash whats your take on these lot below?Interesting line up.

   Eli Ben-Sasson (Technion)
    Alessandro Chiesa (MIT)
    Christina Garman (Johns Hopkins University)
    Matthew Green (Johns Hopkins University)
    Ian Miers (Johns Hopkins University)
    Eran Tromer (Tel Aviv University)
    Madars Virza (MIT

[iamnotback]

My analysis thus far is that the best technology for privacy of a real-time transactions block chain will be my technology, which is a combination of homomorphic value implemented with my (yet unpublished, no peer review) elimination of the proof-of-square in Compact Confidential Transactions (assuming I don't have a math error) instead of Blockstream's much less efficient Compact Transactions, combined with my recent (unpublished, yet peer review vetted privately) innovation to remove the simultaneity requirement from CoinJoin. That CCT innovation is from the June 2015 Zero Knowledge Transactions (of which an excerpt from the white paper was already published to the Monero Speculation thread with the specific item above redacted).

I believe this will beat both Zerocash and Cryptonote for the actual use case that is going to be mass adopted.

This statement can't be verified until white papers are published.

Unfortunately from myself has been a lot of research but not enough coding. I am in the midst of trying to reorient my habits, but my chronic health issue is a major hindrance. It is not clear yet if I can still be productive as a programmer. I came back just now with some renewed vigor, after a few days of being off the computer and focusing on intense exercise, massive amount of eating (actually I am losing weight & gaining muscle mass while eating so much which is a sign that maybe my pre-illness metabolism is returning), resting my eye(s) (blind in one eye), and trying to set up a sandwich shop business (for my gf and some cash flow for myself).

...Also PoS (including DPoS) is basically a permissioned, centralized system, because the whales will control it.

If we just wanted a centralized, persmissioned system, then we don't need block chains. We could do that more efficiently. We have it already, it is named Paypal.

The only way you scale this globally, is if nobody owns it. This is why Paypal can't disrupt the existing financial structure of the world. Too many vested interests fighting turf battles.

So yes, you will need my design.

I already know what I have. The only issue is my health. I am fighting very hard to overturn a chronic health condition. 3 hours nonstop in the gym yesterday, then running in the evening, then running again this morning. Had my entire body coated in 25% oregano oil, turned red. Totally exhausted in the evening, slept like a rock could barely move. Jumped out of bed full of energy. Age 51, my eyes totally blurred when I get off the computer can't even see anyone's face. Got off the computer for 2 days and  could start to see again.

So I won't be posting much. I am in a battle right now and the only thing that matters now is action. I don't know if this old body, eyes, health of mine is going to perform or not. But now I am just going to be off this forum and fighting for it with 110% effort.

[r0ach]

Here is my explanation for trading the current world economy and why I don't follow anything Armstrong says, because he would have to be an insider trader knowing when and what the govt will do beforehand like Soros for what he says to have any value.  If the government took no action, there would be a black swan event and the system would all go down out of the blue one day.  His data is useless against black swans, and his data is also useless unless he can predict when and if governments will act.  It's a centrally run system, not an aggregate market by "capital flows".

<r0ach> if they don't create inflation, the system collapses.  If they manage to do so, it would require helicopter money, basic income, or confiscating gold again and paying everyone who owns gold higher than market rate.
<r0ach> only problem is, only people who own gold is central banks and ETFs, so that plan can't work because the money wouldn't circulate
<r0ach> when your choice is collapse from deflation in 1 year time span for instance, or central banker intervention to collapse in 2 years from hyperinflation, they will always stretch out the collapse
<r0ach> using the tool of inflation
<r0ach> this is how they screw you though, with no central banker intervention in their rigged market, you get deflation and the price of everything collapses:  houses, the value of gold, food, everything.  So the central bankers sometimes insider trade the market and let the deflation happen, buy everything for pennies, then initiate inflation after.
<r0ach> so it's all about guessing if they let deflation occur first or just go straight from here to wheelbarrow hyperinflation


<belcher> what if theres no deflation r0ach ?
<belcher> i.e. the world economy does ok

<r0ach> china is exporting deflation to the US currently
<r0ach> and deflation collapses the system
<r0ach> so central bankers are forced to act
<belcher> what if china stops doing that?
<r0ach> it's only a question of, do they let the deflation happen first and buy everything for pennies, or act to stop china
<r0ach> china can't
<r0ach> they have to keep devaluing to inflate away bad debts
<r0ach> to prevent systematic collapse
<r0ach> and of course, the US has to do the same thing
<r0ach> so it's a currency war
<r0ach> like I said, in a currency war of devaluation, both Bitcoin and metals would win in the end, but it seems like they do it by each nation taking turns to devalue one after another.  So first China devalues and creates deflation here, then the US does it and it goes back to normal, then EU, and they keep doing rounds in a circle
<r0ach> and then maybe you have rogue nations that don't follow the script and just devalue to hell and back out of turn
<r0ach> it's unknown by most people if China + US + EU are following a script or not
<r0ach> if a larger nation breaks from an orderly script, that's when the fireworks start and you get super deflation or wheelbarrow hyperinflation
<r0ach> it's totally unpredictable

[MatTheCat]

<r0ach> like I said, in a currency war of devaluation, both Bitcoin and metals would win in the end, but it seems like they do it by each nation taking turns to devalue one after another.  So first China devalues and creates deflation here, then the US does it and it goes back to normal, then EU, and they keep doing rounds in a circle
<r0ach> and then maybe you have rogue nations that don't follow the script and just devalue to hell and back out of turn
<r0ach> it's unknown by most people if China + US + EU are following a script or not
<r0ach> if a larger nation breaks from an orderly script, that's when the fireworks start and you get super deflation or wheelbarrow hyperinflation
<r0ach> it's totally unpredictable

This whole deflation/inflation question is a very intriguing question which is very difficult to get the head around.

I have heard arguments made that big deflation has already been diverted, with the bank bail outs and subsequent quantative easing, most of which has went into the equity markets and because of this, stocks have gotten way overvalued based on their earnings in the real economy, which are generally stagnating, or declining. Eventually (and perhaps the top is already in, but perhaps not), capital will stop flowing into stocks and start going in the opposite direction, and it is reckoned that after this wealth has come out of stocks and fled to government bonds; then as the market loses faith in government bonds, due either to negative interest rates or massive devaluation of the currency behind those bonds, as governments are forced to continually print in order to meet ongoing debt obligations, this wealth will finally flow into commodities. The world of real things. When capital flees from the pen-ultimate safe haven asset (government treasuries) into the ultimate safe haven (or fear) assets (all commodities but especially gold), then interest rates start to rise, and all that freshly created wealth starts getting loaned out into Main Street, and the very beginnings of a new bubble/growth cycle are set into motion, which will propel asset prices to eye watering highs by today's standards, but of course with the value of those USD, GBP, etc, being vastly less than it is even today.

[r0ach]

I have heard arguments made that big deflation has already been diverted

I would say this is not possible because the economy is bad, money velocity is low, and people are attempting to save instead of spend.  In other words, the debt is unservicable.  When the debt is unserviceable, you just have a continuous series of defaults, and since the money supply itself *is* debt, it shrinks and you get cascading deflationary collapse.  Deflation is currently an enormous problem for every nation, so they either let it happen and the system collapses, forgive the debt and issue non-debt based currency (Bitcoin anyone?), or they devalue the fuck out of the dollar.  

The price of oil is also a huge canary in the coalmine that deflation is imploding the system.  They basically have to unleash a huge tsunami of freshly printed fiat to stop it, but that fiat has to be distributed in the hands of the entire population or it solves nothing.  Random central banker choices would be forgiving things like student loans, helicopter money, "basic income", or all three.  Of course the "solutions" could collapse the system itself, so you have a situation of do nothing and implode, or forgive a few debts and create some wheelbarrow hyperinflation to maybe extend the collapse a little longer.

The funny part about the situation is, Bitcoin essentially is helicopter money for all intents and purposes.  If central bankers knew the system was doomed and had to issue helicopter money, it would be the most effective way to do so while still having plausible deniability.  They could then manipulate exchanges to pump it higher and give people increased buying power to negate deflation and stimulate the economy.  Giving a bunch of lower income people free money is one of the fastest known ways to stimulate an economy.

[iamnotback]

This whole deflation/inflation question is a very intriguing question which is very difficult to get the head around.

...it is reckoned that after this wealth has come out of stocks and fled to government bonds; then as the market loses faith in government bonds, due either to negative interest rates or massive devaluation of the currency behind those bonds, as governments are forced to continually print in order to meet ongoing debt obligations, this wealth will finally flow into commodities. The world of real things...

Sorry that can't happen, because the physical commodity markets are too small and illiquid to hold the $trillions of liquid wealth locked up in bonds and stock markets.

This is why assets are likely to flow in US stock markets (via the US dollar) as the sovereign bonds start to fail in Europe.

If there is a truly decentralized crypto-currency available when the US stock market begins to overheat at nosebleed levels, and if it has gained sufficiently liquidity, then it could see a tremendous influx of capital. Unfortunately, Bitcoin nor the altcoins have solved the scaling and decentralization issues.

Fuck this is an amazing opportunity for me if I can get my coding ass in gear.

They basically have to unleash a huge tsunami of freshly printed fiat to stop it, but that fiat has to be distributed in the hands of the entire population or it solves nothing.  Random central banker choices would be forgiving things like student loans, helicopter money, "basic income", or all three.  Of course the "solutions" could collapse the system itself, so you have a situation of do nothing and implode, or forgive a few debts and create some wheelbarrow hyperinflation to maybe extend the collapse a little longer.

Governments already have a helicopter money system, it is called "food stamps" and "unemployment insurance". The plan of the TPTB is to turn more than 50% of the people into social welfare parasites, so they will always vote to continue the totalitarianism.

There will be no dropping money from helicopters. Just more and more debt piled onto to people who have to beg for more totalitarianism so they can get some government handouts for their basic necessities of life.

[iamnotback]

r0ach et al, if you think interest rates didn't rise when Armstrong said they would, I urge you to go back to middle school and learn basic math:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/interest-rates/54580/ He said the rates would rise starting from 2013 and "The longest would be 2015."

That was not a prediction.

Good find. Note that is not a prediction of his computer model. It is him pontificating off-the-cuff in one dimension with Pi cycles. But we know his model incorporates multi-dimensional (multiple cycles) wave interference.

It is epitome of idiocy to criticize that which you haven't even bothered to comprehend. That you don't even know the basics of what I have written in the prior paragraph, you continue to display that you are not interested in the truth, but rather in some useless, non-factual, non-analytical smear campaign.

Also, rates have already been rising! But you don't realize that, because you are not very smart.

Central banks cannot “control” long-term rates. All they can do is try to “influence” it by buying debt in an attempt to reduce the supply. But they cannot FIX LONG-TERM rates. That is purely a market function. Capital is running away from government debt. The bondholders have been willing to sell this to them and many are starting to shift to corporate debt. Many pensions have started that process while others have tried to buy emerging debt with higher yields.

sloanf, you have basically failed at a simple math problem that you would find on an 8th grade math exam.

When we say "interest rates rising", then the only objective measure is the weighted average of all money invested in bonds/loans of all types. So when capital starts shifting from 0% sovereign debt (leaving the Fed as the main buyer) to higher yielding corporate or emerging market debt, then even though the interest rates for those peripheral bonds declines, the weighted average increases.

Please STFU your trolling smear campaign, and go back to middle school.

[r0ach]

Sorry that can't happen, because the physical commodity markets are too small and illiquid to hold the $trillions of liquid wealth locked up in bonds and stock markets.

That statement makes no sense!

The bond market is selling unservicable debt, aka bad IOUs, not "liquid wealth" as you put it.  The people buying the IOUs will eventually get shafted and hold a bag of zero, and when they do, things like metals and Bitcoin skyrocket while the debt markets collapse (and take down their respective currency with it).  It is not required to transfer the market cap from bonds to metals and Bitcoin in some type of orderly process on an exchange.

As a primitive example, let's say you only have two currencies on earth - the peso with 10% of market and the shekel with 90%.  The value of all labor is represented by those two assets.  If the shekel collapses, there's no such thing as "the peso is too illiquid to absorb the shekel market", it gets it by default - literally and figuratively.

If the govt buys their own debt, it's the same thing as printing paper and you're essentially transferring value to Bitcoin and metals in that manner anyway.  If governments try to rig metals and Bitcoin downwards, all it does is create bigger gains for the smart money that buys it while it's repressed unless you actually believe you can continue the fraud to eternity (not possible).

This is why assets are likely to flow in US stock markets (via the US dollar) as the sovereign bonds start to fail in Europe.

Again, this doesn't make any sense either.  For the stock prices to go up, those companies actually have to be moving product off the shelves, and the economic outlook of every country is generally bad.  So you're basically saying a company like Ford, even though they are selling no cars, is just going to skyrocket in value for no reason?  You're describing a speculative bubble, and those speculators would instantly sell the asset because they know the fundamentals are bad and put the money somewhere safer (something like agriculture that comes before cars, and safe haven investments like metals and Bitcoin).

If there is a truly decentralized crypto-currency available when the US stock market begins to overheat at nosebleed levels, and if it has gained sufficiently liquidity, then it could see a tremendous influx of capital. Unfortunately, Bitcoin nor the altcoins have solved the scaling and decentralization issues.

From my estimates, all Bitcoin would need to do is scale to 8MB to allow market penetration as a checkbook type device for large value transactions in the middle/upper middle class of around $5,000 - $10,000.  At around 1-2 MB, Bitcoin would be more of a tool for the top 2-10% of wealth assuming we rely on on-chain transactions to prevent fractional reserve.  It's unknown just what percent of the transaction volume is required to be on-chain to prevent fractional reserve.  If you think the answer is 100%, then obviously only something like LN would work.  I don't care if you think it's "flawed" or whatever, that would be the only type of solution if you require all transactions on-chain.

The only other alternative would be to use a technically federated chain where verification is centralized amongst one node or a few federated nodes, but the centralized orderer/verifier can't actually double spend or anything like that.  All they can do is take the thing offline and then you're forced to manually replace them somehow.  Realsolid actually already coded this system out, but it's a pretty hard sell being technically a federated chain because it has no way to replace the verifiers should they spontaneously die.

Governments already have a helicopter money system, it is called "food stamps" and "unemployment insurance". The plan of the TPTB is to turn more than 50% of the people into social welfare parasites, so they will always vote to continue the totalitarianism.

There will be no dropping money from helicopters. Just more and more debt piled onto to people who have to beg for more totalitarianism so they can get some government handouts for their basic necessities of life.

And you think creating a dystopian civilization run by a single room full of jews to control a population of 6 billion will actually work?  No, it will not work.  The end result of such attempts is always being beheaded by guillotines.

[kiklo]

Here's a riddle for the Anonymizer:

It's inevitable that an alias system would be developed for any successful cryptocurrency.  The alias system would de-anonymize transactions of even the most perfect system because...that's what it's designed to do by voluntary compliance.  But, governments would then mandate all transactions be routed through the alias system or you're considered to be a criminal launderer.  So it seems no matter what type of cryptocurrency you develop, you will be forced to use the government scaffolding alias system regardless, which transforms the cryptocurrency into an entirely different thing than what it's designed as.

Which is how we arrive at:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9JgvkWRSq7Q&feature=youtu.be&t=47m33s

But with Monero my snoopy neighbors won't be able to see what I'm doing while with Bitcoin they will.  What you're describing is at least no worse than the current system.  I'd count preserving the status quo as a victory of sorts considering the alternatives.

Unless you give your Neighbors your BTC address or transactions ID, they can't tell what you are doing with BTC either.  
Or
If they are really nosy, they will just place a keyboard and screen logger on your PC while you're at work, and then no matter what you use they will know it.  

Only real solution is that you have to move away from those neighbors.  

 

FYI:
Are they sleeping with your wife too?

[iamnotback]

Bitcoin and gold have both rallied, so at least the part about my prediction that CC and gold would be aligned has been true. I've said I am following MA on the timing and reason for any macroeconomic decline in these alternative assets (notwithstanding I could see BTC peak out at wither $800ish or $1200ish as overhead resistance and decline before blasting through to ATHs):

Is MA still calling for gold to drop below $900? That call doesn't seem likely at this time.

Actually I think that was one of his best calls. Came pretty darn close, at the bottom.

$1050 was the first target. We hit that.

MA stated it was possible for gold to decline further to $850 or even as low as $680, but this would depend on the reversal system. Just recently gold moved above the critical $1362 level, so it appears the lower lows scenario is no longer a possibility or at least we have rally period first.

The potential reason for gold to decline is when the stampede into the USD and US stocks begins in earnest (once it is clear that Europe is totally fucked), this could cause move out of anti-dollar assets such as gold and even Bitcoin. We could be seeing a bounce in gold because the outcome for the USA is still murky until after Trump wins and also because it is not clear yet to the mainstream that Europe has come off the rails. Thus indecision and move to gold instead of chasing the herd into the USD and US stocks, which will instead come later probably Q1 2017 or so, as MA has been indicating lately.

Also there rumblings out of Europe and also Trump about cracking down on regulating Bitcoin and the other means of sidestepping taxes and regulation. So that is another possible reason these assets could take a blow as capital controls are enacted and the USD and US stocks present a more sane alternative...

MA from Feb 16th:

"...We need a monthly closing in gold ABOVE 1363 and a quarterly closing above 1309 before you can negate a potential collapse below $1,000..."

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/precious-metals/gold/gold-what-now-february-16th-2016/

I'm wondering if here he means that the "monthly closing" is specifically for Feb (plus end of Q1) this year or ongoing, so that we should be expecting to see above 1363 July month end and beyond before being reasonably confident of avoiding a "potential collapse below $1,000".

For what it's worth - and while acknowledging the other potential factors mentioned above - I feel the probability is now in favour of it not going that low. The public confidence in govt appears to be disappearing fast, especially recently with Clinton's non-indictment; Blair's Chilcot whitewash; the non-triggering of Article 50 for Brexit, to name just three - the list goes on and on.

I am not a paying subscriber so I don't know what he is writing now on his paid blog.

My guess is that the "monthly" requirement means we need to see a month above $1363, before we can conclude we aren't just witnessing a spike in volatility.

I don't think the public's confidence in government has disappeared. Rather the public is trusting the voting process enough to have 75% of the voters vote on the BREXIT referendum (a record voter participation level). And voters are becoming very passionate and engaged in the US Presidential election. So the public is focused on politics and the battle cry of voting out the incumbents. The public has not yet reached for their parachute. When they do other actions instead of political, then we will know they've abandoned governance and reach of their parachute.

At the moment, the investors are still conflicted about which is the stronger of the three: UK, EU, or USA, post BREXIT and pre-Trump election. The knee jerk reaction was to buy some gold in case the BREXIT sent the global economy into a tailspin. But the fact is that BREXIT is a non-event, because with only a 4% mandate over Remain, the Leave camp is losing momentum and leaving the EU will not happen quickly, if ever.

As time goes on, the reality of how fucked the EU economy is (incomes are now declining in EU) and how much lucrative the investing opportunity of buying US stocks is, that there will be a massive stampede into the USD and US stocks (probably starting Q1 2017 or thereabouts), which could take the luster away from gold and alternative assets such as Bitcoin.

In order to reach that lower low in gold, we need this deadcat bounce to draw in more tinfoil hats and bolster than TO DA MOON delusion.

When it becomes more clear that USD and US stocks are the only mainstream investment remaining that isn't paying negative interest rates, this could make small mcap volative assets such as gold and Bitcoin look much less attractive. Everyone is going to want to get on that bandwagon gravy train of a double or triple in US stocks. The public participation in US stocks is near an all time low. It can only go up.

I think we forget how clueless the sheeople are. They aren't even at the level of understanding what we all started to research and realize 10 years ago. Mainstream investors don't think we are on the cusp of Armageddon, otherwise the global economy would already be burnt to the ground with the loss of confidence. For them, the BREXIT was a like a one-off risk that had to be hedged with gold. The mainstream investors don't envision it as a succession of Leave votes and a devolution of the EU. The public is pissed off about the migrancy issue, but they view this as a political problem, not the economic abyss which it really is ahead.

[iamnotback]

Sorry that can't happen, because the physical commodity markets are too small and illiquid to hold the $trillions of liquid wealth locked up in bonds and stock markets.

That statement makes no sense!

The bond market is selling unservicable debt, aka bad IOUs, not "liquid wealth" as you put it.  The people buying the IOUs will eventually get shafted and hold a bag of zero, and when they do, things like metals and Bitcoin skyrocket while the debt markets collapse (and take down their respective currency with it).  It is not required to transfer the market cap from bonds to metals and Bitcoin in some type of orderly process on an exchange.

As a primitive example, let's say you only have two currencies on earth - the peso with 10% of market and the shekel with 90%.  The value of all labor is represented by those two assets.  If the shekel collapses, there's no such thing as "the peso is too illiquid to absorb the shekel market", it gets it by default - literally and figuratively.

If the govt buys their own debt, it's the same thing as printing paper and you're essentially transferring value to Bitcoin and metals in that manner anyway.  If governments try to rig metals and Bitcoin downwards, all it does is create bigger gains for the smart money that buys it while it's repressed unless you actually believe you can continue the fraud to eternity (not possible).

Until bonds are unserviceable or the market believes they are, Bitcoin and gold mcaps are too illiquid to absorb the $trillions of inflow. Once that capital is trapped and expropriated, then it can't move into Bitcoin or gold. You lack logic skills r0ach. My statement was logically correct.

Also you are putting the cart before the horse, in that we haven't even YET seen the Europeans attempting to bail out of their F.U.B.A.R. economy into the USD, US Treasuries, and finally US stocks (but they will next year when the SHTF). So we have a long way go before the masses think the US bonds and stocks are unserviceable. And by definition, once there is a stampede of confidence, only a very small percent of the capital will escape into these alternative assets.

This is why assets are likely to flow in US stock markets (via the US dollar) as the sovereign bonds start to fail in Europe.

Again, this doesn't make any sense either.  For the stock prices to go up, those companies actually have to be moving product off the shelves, and the economic outlook of every country is generally bad.

Nope. You don't seem to understand anything about markets. Do altcoins actually have to offer any thing real in order to go up in price! Of course not!

All that is required is that the world sees the USA as somewhat more stable or safe, that can ignite an influx and then capital follows capital, because everyone wants to get some of those gains in valuations, i.e. the wealth effect.

You don't seem to understand that in the brave new world of collapsing velocity of money, collapsing marginal-utility-of-debt, ZIRP, etc., that investing is forced off of any fundamentals and just blowing bubbles seeking yield, liquidity (follow the herd), and valuation appreciation.

(Besides the US Treasury debt is no where near being unserviceable. Rather it is only the unfunded future liabilities that will be defaulted on, e.g. Social Security. Come on man, at least get a clue)

It is such a pita and waste of my time to read your weak ass attempts to slander and smear Armtrong, when you seem to not even understand basic issues about investing in times like this.

If there is a truly decentralized crypto-currency available when the US stock market begins to overheat at nosebleed levels, and if it has gained sufficiently liquidity, then it could see a tremendous influx of capital. Unfortunately, Bitcoin nor the altcoins have solved the scaling and decentralization issues.

From my estimates, all Bitcoin would need to do is scale to 8MB to allow market penetration as a checkbook type device for large value transactions in the middle/upper middle class of around $5,000 - $10,000.  At around 1-2 MB, Bitcoin would be more of a tool for the top 2-10% of wealth assuming we rely on on-chain transactions to prevent fractional reserve.  It's unknown just what percent of the transaction volume is required to be on-chain to prevent fractional reserve.  If you think the answer is 100%, then obviously only something like LN would work.  I don't care if you think it's "flawed" or whatever, that would be the only type of solution if you require all transactions on-chain.

Bitcoin is already ChinaCoin. It is not decentralized even at 1MB blocks.

Besides money that you can only spend by converting it to fiat, isn't really an alternative asset. The appeal of gold was you could hope on a plane with it, and someone could convert it in the blackmarket and spend it for real goods. But this isn't going to be possible any more. And ditto Bitcoin, as the capital controls come down the pike, you won't be able to spend it on stuff with only 8MB blocks. You need actually scaling if you want it become a currency. And you decentralization if you want to it be resistant to control by any one nation or power (e.g. China).

I am just going to need to get my coding ass in gear and fix this shit.

The only other alternative would be to use a technically federated chain where verification is centralized amongst one node or a few federated nodes, but the centralized orderer/verifier can't actually double spend or anything like that.  All they can do is take the thing offline and then you're forced to manually replace them somehow.  Realsolid actually already coded this system out, but it's a pretty hard sell being technically a federated chain because it has no way to replace the verifiers should they spontaneously die.

That is not the only other alternative design for a scalable, decentralized block chain.

Governments already have a helicopter money system, it is called "food stamps" and "unemployment insurance". The plan of the TPTB is to turn more than 50% of the people into social welfare parasites, so they will always vote to continue the totalitarianism.

There will be no dropping money from helicopters. Just more and more debt piled onto to people who have to beg for more totalitarianism so they can get some government handouts for their basic necessities of life.

And you think creating a dystopian civilization run by a single room full of jews to control a population of 6 billion will actually work?  No, it will not work.  The end result of such attempts is always being beheaded by guillotines.

Define "work". The masses will seek their own destruction as they always do, by clinging to collectivism. That is nature's culling mechanism at-work. So it is "working".

Tyranny will come in the guise of safety and security and of course the envoirnment and health and safety are included because it is always best to hide the lie in the truth. Selective truth and doublespeak create the narrative as the tyranny rolls out and the sheeple have been slowly boiled like a frog.

Tinfoil hat investors don't seem to understand that the masses are still a long way from viewing all of the current financial system as F.U.B.A.R.. They are just at the point of trying to vote to kick out incumbents. They are no where near yet bailing out with a parachute.

We have a long ways to go and this will culling of the herd will get very ugly as it always does throughout repeating bouts in man's history.

[iamnotback]

I am also discussing that same topic with aminorex:

assets are likely to flow in US stock markets (via the US dollar) as the sovereign bonds start to fail in Europe.

An unsolicited opinion: Good conclusions, questionable reasons;  EUR is likely the weak link, not bunds. BTPs and even OATS may face a crisis, but not bunds, not forseeably, what with all the consumption in Europe feeding the mittelstadt.  (Unless Germans were to suddenly become much more stupid that they have been since WW2.)

Anyhow, spx/gold is unlikely to surpass 2015 highs over the next 10 years. Softs and industrials just reflect demand collapse.  Monetary metals have no where to go but up now, at least 4 months out, and perhaps forever.  Demographics are a bitch goddess.  Either risk bottoms out in 2025 or there is a "reset" and a new regime along the way, with imperfect conversion making for massive volatility, stacked crises, and all that implies in politics.  

Best case scenario is conversion to a classical gold standard, which at least provides known workable precedents.  It would have to start in US or China.  Unlikely in any case because it is so hard to game it, long term. Why change to a game you are not guaranteed to win?  CCCP is more likely to go that route than is the western deep state, due to the characteristic Chinese long view and worship of stability. Western elites prefer fascism to mercantilism.  It would be ironic if the communists saved capitalism from the capitalists, eh?

Going into deeply negative interest rates can be seen as a failure (a form of expropriation and slow default), when the stampede into the USD, and US assets appreciation is making negative ROI looking pretty fucking stupid in comparison. Capital tends to not be that stupid and follows capital instead to last-man-off-the-boat (aka greater fool theory of investing) appreciation wealth effect.

Germans are already doing insanity with Merkel at the helm inviting millions of Muslim migrants in a form of delusional socialism that is analogous to the Weimar Republic's mass delusion. They even shut off all their nuclear generation plants and will be at the mercy of Putin for electricity. This is repeat of Hitler's problem of not having enough FOREX to pay for oil, so he had no choice but to go take by force.

SPX will likely double or triple in a massive bubble, which may take some of the steam out of gold for the interim (2017-18ish) because a booming USD and US assets, will be seen as a less risky bubble to pile into, than gold. So it is possible we haven't yet seen the high for SPX/AUG, but eventually the USD stampede will peak and then the wheels will entirely fall off the current financial system, so then expect gold to rally into 2024 at least and the SPX/AUG will have peaked 2017/18ish.

Perhaps Western fascism and Asian mercantilism are semantic analogues at some abstraction. It is really all about the elites holding the power. Asia has youth so they don't need to cull the unfunded liabilities, so the lurch forward into Digital Technocracy (666 system controlled by the elites) can be a positive lifestyle improvement in Asia. In the West, the wealth has to be expropriated from all the middle class to pay for the unfunded liabilities, whilst eventually defaulting on them any way (i.e. there is no political solution in the West which isn't fascist because the Westerners don't want to willing accept a downgrade of their financial status so there must be a fight to the 0 level for everyone).

Edit: read this post also.

Saying AI can't surpass human creativity, though - that's utter bunk.  Stick breaking in Banach spaces is not rocket science any more.  We have the math.  We just haven't had the time and money to implement it yet.

Try to actually rebut my mathematical and physics reasoning. Then we can have a discussion.

[iamnotback]

Bitcoin is already ChinaCoin. It is not decentralized even at 1MB blocks.

Good Satoshi just look at the stats: China is home to 90% of bitcoin trades and 70% of mining.

how long until hit the big fork button on the github repo and force everyone else to use their version of the network?

Of course, as I said many times since 2013, that Bitcoin is a TrojanHorse planted by the global elite to accomplish two goals:

1. Trap all the tinfoil hats by incentivizing them to think their trades are not traceable and let them mix their coins with lots of money laundering, so it can all be expropriated by law when the big economic reset comes in a few years. Since everything is permanent on the block chain, the authorities will be able to apply clawbacks and come take your house and everything from you, because you thought you were smart for investing in BitCON.

2. Bitcoin kills the ability of any nation-state to take the lead on issuing a digital currency. This is to prevent competitors that could offer liquidity and way out other than the coming monetary reset and world reserve currency managed by the IMF and WorldBank under a power sharing agreement of all the nations (but actually controlled by the elite banksters).

[TrueAnon]

WBB will only become stronger regardless of halving

[iamnotback]

WBB will only become stronger regardless of halving

Why do you spam so many threads with your off-topic shitcoin pump. Keep that shit in your own official WildButtBaloney threads.

[Monerobuyer0]

How is the "holding bitcoin instead of monero into the halving" thing going for you roach?