r0ach's Cryptomarkets Watch & Scamcoin Observer

[r0ach]

I sold 1BTC @ $460. Dollar cost averaging what I believe to be a deadcat bounce.

It will be $500 soon.  The fact that Coinbase is the market leader in price AHEAD of the margin exchanges is crazy bullish because it indicates organic demand is high and there is no leveraging bubble.

[1714657058]

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[1714657058]

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[TPTB_need_war]

...organic demand is high and there is no leveraging bubble.

What is the volume on Coinbase right now?

Can't people use Coinbase to move from fiat to BTC to move the BTC to bet margin at other margin sites with the BTC? So can't it be a precursor?

Who uses Coinbase and why?

[kiklo]

...organic demand is high and there is no leveraging bubble.

What is the volume on Coinbase right now?

Can't people use Coinbase to move from fiat to BTC to move the BTC to bet margin at other margin sites with the BTC? So can't it be a precursor?

Who uses Coinbase and why?

Pair           Volume 24 hours      Price
BTC/USD    $ 2,728,180           $ 462.91    
http://coinmarketcap.com/exchanges/coinbase-exchange/


CoinBase links directly to your Bank Account,
currently the easiest and most notable way to get your US$ into BTC and convert your BTC into $Dollars and then directly to your bank account.
At the moment, they don't really have any competition or at least any that markets their services very well.

 

FYI: Trading Pairs
BTC/USD
BTC/CAD
BTC/EUR
BTC/GBP
Not all Trading Pairs are available in all regions.

[Barraken]

I sold 1BTC @ $460. Dollar cost averaging what I believe to be a deadcat bounce.

It will be $500 soon.  The fact that Coinbase is the market leader in price AHEAD of the margin exchanges is crazy bullish because it indicates organic demand is high and there is no leveraging bubble.

I don't think we will see $500 this month. it could happen in May or June. The bitcoin is still in consolidation.

[TPTB_need_war]

At the moment, they don't really have any competition or at least any that markets their services very well.

Potentially another manipulated market such as the argument about Mt.Gox bubble upthread. We could be witnessing a cashing out from recent altcoin bubbles while buying from himself to create the illusion of a rising price while doing so as they ostensibly did for the ETH bubble, e.g. Vitalik using Coinbase to cash out from ETH -> BTC -> USD.

Free markets = decentralized markets.

When you have whales and most volume going through 1 or 2 exchanges, you don't have decentralized markets.

[TPTB_need_war]

First TO DA MOON article on Bitcoin I've seen in a while:

http://moneymorning.com/2016/04/26/why-the-bitcoin-price-is-surging-in-spite-of-the-obits/

[r0ach]

First TO DA MOON article on Bitcoin I've seen in a while:

http://moneymorning.com/2016/04/26/why-the-bitcoin-price-is-surging-in-spite-of-the-obits/

TOO BIG TO FAIL

[r0ach]

There is good news and there is bad news:

[BitFomo]

Bravo OP. Good Call!

[rdnkjdi]

http://forums.prohashing.com/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=821&p=3113#p3113

I def don't take this as gospel.  But personally I would feel uneasy having the majority of my net holdings (or even crypto holdings) in bitcoin at this moment.

In addition to this - maximum leverage is being used for the coming halving.  I'm mining and converting to Monero for now.

If you want the "first mover always wins" you should stick with

[r0ach]

http://forums.prohashing.com/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=821&p=3113#p3113

Why are you linking to the "prohashing" guy when all of his predictions have been completely bogus.  It's just some guy that runs a pool or something.  He thought Ethereum was not a scamcoin for fucks sake and was bewildered when the price went down.  The guy just straight up makes things up in his posts to try to pump whatever altcoin he buys, whether it's Litecoin one day or Eth the next day.  Even in the post you linked, he's still shilling for Eth and claims OpenBazaar will "lower the Bitcoin TPS" due to multisig transactions taking more space (barely relevant), yet Bitcoin is planning to introduce Schnorr signatures anyway, so it would make zero difference. 

Eth has far worse scalability issues than Bitcoin, yet he's saying Bitcoin is doomed because multisig transactions on OpenBazaar.  This guy must believe everyone that reads his posts is a complete fucking idiot.

[rdnkjdi]

"Scam" doesn't really seem relevant here.  Ethereum talked about what they planned on trying to deliver over a year and a half ago in these forums and did exactly that.  They came out with prototypes long before release.  If they'd run off with all presale money without delivering then "scam" might be appropriate but when someone does exactly what they say they are going to try to do you can't classify it as a scam - doesn't really fit the dictionary definition.  Words mean stuff ... save scam for when it applies (and FUD too for that matter).

As to the scaling - ethereum has a roadmap that should lead it into feasable scaling with casper.  At Bitcoin's current trajectory even quadrupling the transaction load would be death.  At least ethereum acknowledges it as a problem and is taking proactive steps.  Not some hellish wallet hack that should be done thru a hardfork WITH a blocksize increase.

FWIW I feel as uneasy with my money in ethereum as bitcoin.  But his big picture view of what could happen with a price increase -> volume increase -> clogged transaction -> halving -> price drop -> further hash drop -> further price decrease reflects what I've been thinking for the last few months.  I give it some probability of happening and I see it discussed very little.

[TPTB_need_war]

"Scam" doesn't really seem relevant here.  Ethereum talked about what they planned on trying to deliver over a year and a half ago in these forums and did exactly that.  They came out with prototypes long before release.  If they'd run off with all presale money without delivering then "scam" might be appropriate but when someone does exactly what they say they are going to try to do you can't classify it as a scam - doesn't really fit the dictionary definition.  Words mean stuff ... save scam for when it applies (and FUD too for that matter).

As to the scaling - ethereum has a roadmap that should lead it into feasable scaling with casper.  At Bitcoin's current trajectory even quadrupling the transaction load would be death.  At least ethereum acknowledges it as a problem and is taking proactive steps.  Not some hellish wallet hack that should be done thru a hardfork WITH a blocksize increase.

FWIW I feel as uneasy with my money in ethereum as bitcoin.  But his big picture view of what could happen with a price increase -> volume increase -> clogged transaction -> halving -> price drop -> further hash drop -> further price decrease reflects what I've been thinking for the last few months.  I give it some probability of happening and I see it discussed very little.

At $500+, I don't know why anyone in their sane mind would hold Bitcoin. You aren't going to make +100% gain from $500 in 2016. No way Jose! The point of holding Bitcoin is for a long-term bet and with a lot of capital. For your quick 10 baggers, you have to play the bets with altcoins.

The dollar will appreciate 30 - 50% from now through end of 2017. Since Bitcoin is a preservation of capital holding, it is a no brainer to sell Bitcoin $500 to $600 and hold dollars until later in the year and get some clarity.

Btw, I think a double-top for ETH at $15 is likely. Too much bad news has come out, sentiment is negative, and I had always said it would bounce at $7. There needs to be a GPU mineable alternative to Bitcoin, same as the role Litecoin provided. It doesn't matter that ETH has no adoption. It is purely a store-of-value arbitrage/speculation proposition.

P.S. I've removed rdnkjdi from my Ignore list because he only went there because he asked me to, he doesn't deserve to be grouped with the real trolls, and his posts lately are more thought out.

Dont trust anyone who claims to know the exact date the market will crash.

Except the person who has done it so many times.

Again it is never "the market will crash on this date". It is always an "if this, then that".

All i now is that his 2015.75 prediction got blown out of the water. Zerohedge has been 'predicting' the great crash ever since 2009.

Try reading this thread before you put your foot in your mouth.

I already documented that the Baltic Sea index's dead cat bounce peaked exactly on March 13/14 turn date. And the 2015.75 turn date coincided precisely with either the refugee crisis start or Putin entering Syria (I forgot which it was).

Armstrong never predicted a market crash on 2015.75. This is the turn date for the major downtrend for the sovereign debt crisis. And we got a major push to destroy Europe on precisely that Sept 30/Oct 1 date.

[kiklo]

FYI: Recent Artificial Market Pumping

You would have made more money on the Fake Pump from LTC than BTC.

example : March 30th, 2016
BTC ~ $415.94
LTC ~ $    3.35

So if you have purchased $10,000 bucks worth of each.
$10,000 / $415.94  = 24.04 BTC
$10,000 / $   3.35  =  2985.07 LTC

As of today you can sell at
BTC Price $465.38 * 24.04 BTC = $11,187.7352
New Total   original investment  Profit
11,187.74 -  10,000                =$1,187.74

LTC Price $4.06  * 2985.07      =  $12,119.3842
New Total   original investment  Profit
$12,119.38  -  $10,000            = $2,119.38

More Profit to be found in Alts than BTC.


 

[r0ach]

At $500+, I don't know why anyone in their sane mind would hold Bitcoin. You aren't going to make +100% gain from $500 in 2016.

Let's break out the list:

1)  Because it's literally a free money asymmetric trade, which is why the price is going up.  The odds of losing are far lower than gaining.

2)  There are only two monetary instruments on earth immune to cascading deflationary collapse of fractional reserve fiat from debts and loans going bad:  Bitcoin and Metals.

3)  If I buy gold, it has less utility than Bitcoin.  Where can I spend gold?  Nowhere.  All I can do with gold is mail it back to the gold dealer for 90% or less of what I paid for it.  Bitcoin utility is currently higher than gold for most people, yet the market cap is zilch.  Expect a correction to occur with Bitcoin market cap increasing because this is a truely distorted market if the tiny market cap asset has more acceptance and utility than the huge market cap one.

4)  Market cap is determined by market makers and market makers plan to raise the price.  People don't build 100 million dollar mining facilities and then let the price be determined by sheer luck or fate.

5)  Bitcoin moves in bubbles and there was an extremely long bear market accumulation period with observable hard floors.  Whenever a long accumulation period occurs on an actual liquid asset, the price explodes afterwards.  If you think Bitcoin is not going to see big moves, you are mistaken.

6)  The inflation rate is going from 8% to 4%, so it's actually a real currency now instead of some hyperinflating bullshit.

7)  Because fucking boats

[TPTB_need_war]

7)  Because fucking boobs

What boobs  

[TPTB_need_war]

At $500+, I don't know why anyone in their sane mind would hold Bitcoin. You aren't going to make +100% gain from $500 in 2016.

Let's break out the list:

1)  Because it's literally a free money asymmetric trade, which is why the price is going up.  The odds of losing are far lower than gaining.

That is what rpietila was preaching at $1000, $600, $300, but afair he got mighty quiet at $150. I was on the opposite side of all those calls.

Hope you aren't going to repeat the fatal mistake of marrying an asset. Marriage is for once-in-a-lifetime relationship between individuals. An asset is a groupthink phenomenon.

2)  There are only two monetary instruments on earth immune to cascading deflationary collapse of fractional reserve fiat from debts and loans going bad:  Bitcoin and Metals.

Until at least the end of 2017, the US dollar will not be deflating because the rest of the world is already deflating, is $10+ trillion "carry trade" short the dollar, and the chaos is sending massive international capital stampeding for a safe haven in the US dollar and US dollar assets such as the USA stock market and trophy real estate. Armstrong has been predicting this since 2012 and he explaining it will radically accelerate probably after the BREXIT vote.

BTC, gold down, US dollar up. Sorry man. Longer-term gold, CC up, and US dollar up. 2018+ a global monetary reset.

3)  If I buy gold, it has less utility than Bitcoin.  Where can I spend gold?  Nowhere.  All I can do with gold is mail it back to the gold dealer for 90% or less of what I paid for it.  Bitcoin utility is currently higher than gold for most people, yet the market cap is zilch.  Expect a correction to occur with Bitcoin market cap increasing because this is a truely distorted market if the tiny market cap asset has more acceptance and utility than the huge market cap one.

Those whales who invest in gold don't trust Bitcoin as an asset. Those who use Bitcoin for transactions are not that numerous. Bitcoin is caught in between two markets it can't do either one very well. Why do you think I am going to fix this problem! Because I see precisely where the problem is and how to fix it.

4)  Market cap is determined by market makers and market makers plan to raise the price.  People don't build 100 million dollar mining facilities and then let the price be determined by sheer luck or fate.

The mining profit will come from increasing transaction fees × transaction volume. The problem is that increasing the block size too much will lower the fees. This is why this has been such a contentious issue. The mining cartel in China wants to make sure they can set the block size to maximize that multiplicative product. Why do others not able to deduce what is so obvious to me 

5)  Bitcoin moves in bubbles and there was an extremely long bear market accumulation period with observable hard floors.  Whenever a long accumulation period occurs on an actual liquid asset, the price explodes afterwards.  If you think Bitcoin is not going to see big moves, you are mistaken.

Volume matters. We have very low volume on this rise.

6)  The inflation rate is going from 8% to 4%, so it's actually a real currency now instead of some hyperinflating bullshit.

Bitcoin's volatility makes that entirely insignificant. Bitcoin can't be a currency until it has an economy where it is the unit-of-account. Well it actually has one, that is Bitcoin is the unit-of-account the crypto gambling economy.

[r0ach]

after the BREXIT vote.

BTC, gold down, US dollar up. Sorry man. Longer-term gold, CC up, and US dollar up. 2018+ a global monetary reset.

I'm not going to argue these point by point because I feel I have already won the thread when you were talking about dumping everything at $450 and the price is $470 with no stopping in sight now.  Even the TA-only traders who care nothing about Bitcoin and just want to maximize fiat are saying a push to $600 is likely pre-halving:

Higher lows since then support the view imo that, although 465-500 is a resistance level, it looks more likely than not to break on this third attempt and overrun on stoploss and fomo buying to 600ish before becoming overbought

[TPTB_need_war]

after the BREXIT vote.

BTC, gold down, US dollar up. Sorry man. Longer-term gold, CC up, and US dollar up. 2018+ a global monetary reset.

I'm not going to argue these point by point because I feel I have already won the thread when you were talking about dumping everything at $450 and the price is $470 with no stopping in sight now.  Even the TA-only traders who care nothing about Bitcoin and just want to maximize fiat are saying a push to $600 is likely pre-halving:

Higher lows since then support the view imo that, although 465-500 is a resistance level, it looks more likely than not to break on this third attempt and overrun on stoploss and fomo buying to 600ish before becoming overbought

I wrote $450 - $500, not $450. I sold exactly 0.71BTC @ $460. Haven't sold more yet. And tmfp is correct that $450 - $500 it is a resistance level.

[r0ach]

I also believe, due to the phrase I've used a million times, "cascading deflationary collapse of fractional reserve fiat" that the economy will go down to a black swan event and not some years long drawn out process.  Satoshi is not going to call you on the phone and say, "hey man, the inverse relationship of stocks and interest rates is doing whatever the fuck, so you now have a nice safe time to buy Bitcoin around the bottom over the next 180 days".  This is just not going to happen.  

You're just going to turn on the TV and see bank holidays and you either own Bitcoin then or you don't.  Armstrong will be lucky if he even gets anywhere near the correct year for it.  If it doesn't go down by black swan, it will be from controlled demolition and still not adhere to anything on his schedule.

You want to know what the rise of Bitcoin will look like during this?  It will be just like when the price went from $230 to $500.  You'll see the price start to spike up a little and say, "hmm, think I'll wait for it to drop back down then buy some", but nope, this is the insiders buying.  There is no drop, the big financial catastrophe hits, and you're staring at the screen saying, "I made 7000 posts on the Bitcoin forum, the price is now $100,000 and I own 0".