r0ach's Cryptomarkets Watch & Scamcoin Observer

[fedmahnkassad]

r0ach is right, but only to some extend. Alts will be dead for a white until BTC enters a new accumulation phase. After that we will see a new alts bull run and people who shopped the dead alts for peanuts will be the ones who make the most money. All that said, don't go more than 10% in alts for the next 2 months.

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[Jcga]

btc is going to take a breath and cryptoes gonna explode, wait and... hold lol

[darlidada]

is this the bottom for alts? eth seems to be quite resistant. at one point wouldnt it start to raise with BTC? many alts did in 2013 no?

ps: no shilling just serious inquiry

[Jcga]

is this the bottom for alts? eth seems to be quite resistant. at one point wouldnt it start to raise with BTC? many alts did in 2013 no?

ps: no shilling just serious inquiry

I have seen that few times, the crypto currencies slowly get back as people investing with fresh btc once the increase slown down. hold and if possible, buy cheap for better days.

[r0ach]

The halving hasn't even happened yet.  You can stop fantasizing about an altcoin bull run.  There is no scamcoin bull run anywhere on the horizon.

[Jcga]

The Halving is day after day on for few months already...
Alt coins are going up today

[Nxtblg]

Well, r0ach was right in that Bitcoin, after a big fake-out drop, is rallying smartly: close to $520 as I write. And there definitely is a short-term drop in many alts that corresponds well to BTC's recent pump.

But of course, many of us oldies remember the days when Litecoin shot up faster than Bitcoin - that's the big story undergirding the positive-correlation "leverage" argument.

To be honest, I have no idea whether the correlation between Bitcoin & longstanding big alts is positive, negative, or how said correlation changes with time & market conditions. As far as I know, there's no archive of altcoin raw trading records - there is for Bitcoin - and Coinmarketcap's weekly archive page is too "chunky" to provide a statistically reliable data set.

[sillug]

Is it me or the date is becoming more and more close ? Last time I checked it was programmed for July 17th ?

[freshman777]

Well, r0ach was right in that Bitcoin, after a big fake-out drop, is rallying smartly: close to $520 as I write. And there definitely is a short-term drop in many alts that corresponds well to BTC's recent pump.

Prolonged and pronounced success is not possible while the network capacity remains inadequate of needs and due to loss of confidence in Bitcoin with mining amassed in one country. The spread between Bitcoin price on chinese and western exchanges suggests this is probably a set up by the chinese who also read charts and analytics and made this awaited rally a self-fulfilling prophecy to fill their pockets. Technically Bitcoin is a colossus with legs of clay.

[r0ach]

Prolonged and pronounced success is not possible while the network capacity remains inadequate of needs and due to loss of confidence in Bitcoin with mining amassed in one country. The spread between Bitcoin price on chinese and western exchanges suggests this is probably a set up by the chinese who also read charts and analytics and made this awaited rally a self-fulfilling prophecy to fill their pockets. Technically Bitcoin is a colossus with legs of clay.

LOL, this fucking idiot is back spamming the same shit again.  Listen, nobody believes your shit.  You're a shill account created in 2016 then went straight to threads to hype IPO scamcoins.  It doesn't take a genius to figure out this isn't your first account.  Get back on your real acct (probably someone like Come from Beyond) if you don't want to be referred to as an idiot shill.

[sadasa]

Prolonged and pronounced success is not possible while the network capacity remains inadequate of needs and due to loss of confidence in Bitcoin with mining amassed in one country. The spread between Bitcoin price on chinese and western exchanges suggests this is probably a set up by the chinese who also read charts and analytics and made this awaited rally a self-fulfilling prophecy to fill their pockets. Technically Bitcoin is a colossus with legs of clay.

LOL, this fucking idiot is back spamming the same shit again.  Listen, nobody believes your shit.  You're a shill account created in 2016 then went straight to threads to hype IPO scamcoins.  It doesn't take a genius to figure out this isn't your first account.  Get back on your real acct (probably someone like Come from Beyond) if you don't want to be referred to as an idiot shill.

But I think it is still necessary to increase the network capacity of the bitcoin transaction. That will help the adoption.

[freshman777]

But I think it is still necessary to increase the network capacity of the bitcoin transaction. That will help the adoption.

shuddup, you are my sockpuppet.

[iamnotback]

Well, r0ach was right in that Bitcoin, after a big fake-out drop, is rallying smartly: close to $520 as I write. And there definitely is a short-term drop in many alts that corresponds well to BTC's recent pump.

I believe it was acknowledged r0ach might be correct in short-term but there was a point-of-view that argued BTC is in a deadcat bounce mode:

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r0ach will not believe until it happens.

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It is not over until the fat lady sings.

[r0ach]

Crom say chart bullish





And everyone who sells turns into Jurassic Park man

[iamnotback]

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But the permabull fails to note that BTC did not make lower lows after the initial waterfall crash in April 2013, yet during the current declining pattern since the $1200 peak, BTC continued to make lower lows.

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In addition to the quoted point which is evident by studying the cyan highlighted sections on the edited chart below, also notice historically on this chart Bitcoin must make a higher high than the highest high seen since the prior peak, before there is a confirmed breakout:

 (readers need to click the link for the image because a newbie's images don't appear)

Those prior cyan highlighted peaks before the $1200 one, were extremely deep crashes followed by immediate reaccumulation evident by the higher lows and higher highs, i.e. "oh shit the sky is falling selll!... oh shit, no it is not buy!". Whereas the $1200 peak was a gradually increasing capitulation as the permabulls gradually capitulate evident by the lower lows and lower highs. And that capitulation is not complete, evidence r0ach and the other religious, irrational permabulls have to lose their BTC wealth first before the bottom is in. When ever you see a tinfoil hat married to an asset, that is evidence of market froth. When an asset is universally hated or has level-headed investors, then it is ripe for under-the-radar accumulation.

Obviously Bitcoin is only in a deadcat bounce or in a long-winded, gradually rising U bottom, not on the verge of some immediately imminent vertical rocket upwards past the prior $1200 peak.

Looks like there is strong support for BTC historically in the $5 - 10 range. The other range of support is in the $50 - $150 range, which the range I am expecting for the ultimate bottom. But < $10 is not impossible.

Also notice the same chart pattern for gold, where support is in the $600 - $850 range after breaking through support in the $1000 - $1100 range:

[r0ach]

Looks like there is strong support for BTC historically in the $5 - 10 range. The other range of support is in the $50 - $150 range, which the range I am expecting for the ultimate bottom. But < $10 is not impossible.

Oh god man, now you're pulling a MatTheCat and just fantasizing about where you would love to be able to buy.  You also can't compare gold and Bitcoin because gold is a mature market who has already reached maximum market penetration.  If you really want to compare the two, compare the fact that I can do absolutely nothing with an ounce of gold except look at it, while I can actually spend Bitcoin at places like Newegg, Steam, etc.  Ironic that the utility for me of an $8 billion asset is higher than that of an $8 trillion asset.  

If the economy implodes and gold is actually spendable in it's native coin form, there will be no food on the shelves to buy with it anyway!  Meanwhile, Bitcoin dwarfs the usefulness of gold if we don't actually go back to the dark ages.  This leaves you with a choice of either Bitcoin or guns with little use for gold.

[iamnotback]

You also can't compare gold and Bitcoin because gold is a mature market who has already reached maximum market penetration.

The masses using Bitcoin is still a vaporware dream. Both gold and Bitcoin are used by the wealthy and stealthy to transfer large wealth covertly. They are both alternative assets for the wealthy, not for your average Joe Blow.

If the economy implodes and gold is actually spendable in it's native coin form, there will be no food on the shelves to buy with it anyway!

Refer to what I wrote in the prior post about a tinfoil hat (doom and extreme religion) permabull.

Obviously Bitcoin is only in a deadcat bounce or in a long-winded, gradually rising U bottom, not on the verge of some immediately imminent vertical rocket upwards past the prior $1200 peak.

It is possible that Bitcoin has U bottomed at $150 and will meander up to $1200 over the next several months.

A rocket shot to $3000+ is not in the cards this year.

If we do meander up to $1200, a flag 33 - 67% decline pattern is likely before advancing further.

I do hope for the U bottom scenario, because it means much more liquidity for altcoin moonshots, than the alternative crash scenario.

[freshman777]

The trick is to jump off the Bitcoin train to other cryptocoins right before TPTB take it down by cutting power to chinese mining farms. I think we're safe until the price is near ATH. It shouldn't happen this year, Bitcoin will survive the halving rollercoaster. 2017 is more like the time everyone should start packing up if they don't wanna be epic bagholders. This is not to say other lifeboats should be ignored today. Tickets will be expensive in 2017, not getting some minimal exposure to TPTB resistant alts in 2016 will end in many tears next year.

[r0ach]

Anonymint, I hope you aren't planning on holding fiat during 2018 when the Rothschild owned magazine - The Economist, has all fiat currencies in flames.  The banker mafia people tend to operate wide out in the open with their plans.  You already thought the world economy is imploding between 2018-2020, and here they are telling you it's 2018 for fiats.  This means you would likely only get one single year (2017) for your possible deflationary decline of assets, but it's not going to happen for Bitcoin.  Bitcoin is an emerging market; it is not gold whose market penetration is already maxed out.  

Even if you believe 2017 will be a deflationary year for asset prices, it makes zero difference for Bitcoin because it's the equivalent of a small cap equity that can do +2-10x at any time and far outweigh any deflation.  Then you have the other inconvenient truth that you believe there will be massive capital flight to the US dollar as the last bastion of hope.  Since Bitcoin is the king of capital flight, it would actually benefit EVEN MORE in your deflationary, capital flight to the US scenario.

The trick is to jump off the Bitcoin train to other cryptocoins right before TPTB take it down

This Freshman777 guy is a shill account created in the year 2016 to try and hype IPO scamcoins.  You can stop pretending your propaganda works.  Nobody believes a damn word from your shill accounts (probably all operated by Come from Beyond).

[iamnotback]

I hope you aren't planning on holding fiat during 2018 when the Rothschild owned magazine - The Economist, has all fiat currencies in flames.

Did you know that shelby wrote 6 and 8 years ago about that Economist magazine article entitled, “Get Ready for the Phoenix,”.

Don't delude yourself into thinking you know anything that Shelby didn't already know.

This means you would likely only get one single year (2017) for your possible deflationary decline of assets

Even if you believe 2017 will be a deflationary year for asset prices,

Then you have the other inconvenient truth that you believe there will be massive capital flight to the US dollar as the last bastion of hope.  Since Bitcoin is the king of capital flight, it would actually benefit EVEN MORE in your deflationary, capital flight to the US scenario.

I have never written that Bitcoin will decline in 2017. I don't know why you think that. I have always said it would be between 2015.75 and Q1 2017 if it occurs.

It has been explained to you many, many times already that the deflationary contagion after ZIRP ends (when the private sector loses confidence in government and stops buying sovereign bonds) will drive all private assets up, including Bitcoin, gold, the dollar, and USA stocks. After 2017.9, the dollar and stocks will peak then crash as well, then the ongoing rise is likely to be in gold and CC as we will have a monetary reset at some point 2018+ (but maybe not completed until 2024). The interim adjustment phase from the public confidence in government we have now and the stampede change of direction, is what can cause a liquidity selloff in private assets, before their big move gets underway in 2017. MA named this phenomenon, "The Slingshot Move", because first there is a sharp false move to the downside with a V bottom and slingshot to the moon thereafter.

So any precipitous and sharp decline in gold and Bitcoin is between now and Q1 2017. After that, it is upwards.

, but it's not going to happen for Bitcoin.  Bitcoin is an emerging market; it is not gold whose market penetration is already maxed out.

 it makes zero difference for Bitcoin because it's the equivalent of a small cap equity that can do +2-10x at any time and far outweigh any deflation.

Being a small cap is a double-edge sword. On the upside it means larger gains. On the downside, it means larger declines.

Being a small cap, Bitcoin is super vulnerable to macro contagion that impacts the whales.

Don't count your chickens before they hatch. Bitcoin may have U bottomed and may meander up to $1200 over next months, then it might crash 33 - 67%, before renewing its move up in 2017. Or Bitcoin may not have bottomed yet, and may crash again to $150 or below before moving up to $1200 and beyond.

Those are the only two scenarios I see as likely based on both the chart analysis and also on the reality of lack of impetus for a gold rush mania for BTC in 2016. The probability of Bitcoin rocketing up now past $1200 and through the $3000 moonshot is very, very unlikely.  That will come later in 2017 or 2018, not now.

The trick is to jump off the Bitcoin train to other cryptocoins right before TPTB take it down

This Freshman777 guy is a shill account created in the year 2016 to try and hype IPO scamcoins.  You can stop pretending your propaganda works.  Nobody believes a damn word from your shill accounts (probably all operated by Come from Beyond).

A price move from $550 to $1200, is only a double for BTC holders. Ethereum and other ICO holders have earned 10 and 100 baggers interim.

I don't agree with freshman777 that TPTB will shut down BTC. Why would they do that when it is the greatest spying tool they ever created. They are getting the Chinese taipans to incriminate themselves by moving illicit funds through the traceable Bitcoin. Thus these taipans will be beholden to the TPTB to prevent their jail time. This is all about collecting more control over the wealth of the world by TPTB. Bitcoin is a Trojan Horse. And if you think I am going to standby and let them succeed, then you don't know me very well.

Now I will be gone. Have the last word, but please don't twist my words. Read carefully what I have written.