Speculation Rule: buy when others are irrationally pessimistic or too cautious

[Fundamentals Of]

I was expecting we might have to have a large dip in the price in order to shock miners into switching pools:

https://twitter.com/SatoshiLite/status/850048867160662016

I think also these Chinese are manipulating the market.

I didn't sell any LTC.

What do you guys think?

ETH will recover the volume first and back to 0.04. 

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[mining1]

I sold my ltc after i've seen that BW won't signal for segwit. Because these pools that don't signal have about ~25% of the hashrate, and then there are 4-5 more smaller pools that haven't announced anything. Therefore, segwit might be anywhere between 2 and 8 weeks away from the 75% target.

So i will move these funds into ETH to be ready for raiden's implementation, EEA announcement and alphabay's officially accepting eth.

Edit: bought back eth, i don't trust segwit's 75% can be achieved before ETH's rumors become news.

Edit2: f2pool reconsiders segwit, so they might stop signaling https://twitter.com/SatoshiLite/status/850058511199248384

[vlight]

Huge uncertainty in LTC. Would rather take partial profits.

[miscreanity]

I was expecting we might have to have a large dip in the price in order to shock miners into switching pools:

https://twitter.com/SatoshiLite/status/850048867160662016

I think also these Chinese are manipulating the market.

I didn't sell any LTC.

What do you guys think?

Channels are important and to me the market says this is not an issue. The thick blue line in the LTCBTC chart is the long-term downtrend from the 2013-2015 highs. This run should go to 0.015 at a minimum. I also consider this to be a stair-step advance where the decline is not enough to allow solid entry points, but sufficient to force weak holders into panic selling.

Additionally, markets like to fill the gaps seen on the downward move in the LTCBTC chart, so we should come back up to at least close those.

We have until April 10th for the long-term downtrend and the bottom of the current channel to force a direction. There is likely to be a decisive move over the weekend, which I expect to be positive.

I would sell some if 0.00855-0.00865 is broken, and most if 0.00775 is breached.

I sold my ltc after i've seen that BW won't signal for segwit.

...

Edit: bought back eth, i don't trust segwit's 75% can be achieved before ETH's rumors become news.

...

Noise. Rely more on fundamentals for long-term trends. For shorter-term uncertainty, let the market tell you what's happening.

ETHBTC is falling to 0.035 and if that fails, 0.0275 is next followed by 0.021. ETHUSD seems to be holding up better, but that can still fall to around 32. I would start accumulating at those lows unless activity clearly shifts.

Edit: On that same time frame as Litecoin of April 10th, Bitcoin needs to exceed 1207 for a continued rise. Otherwise, a correction or consolidation is in the cards. Of note is how BTC and LTC are taking turns climbing - the interplay is obvious and ratchet-like. If Litecoin gets SW then that will probably be the point where they separate for a while, with Bitcoin range-bound as @iamnotback has stated.

At the current pace, LTC could hit 50 by late May to early June, while BTC approaches 2000 by mid-May. These are already unstable trajectories, and any upward acceleration has the potential to blow past those targets.

[mining1]

I do rely on fundamentals, and ltc's grow was mostly caused by segwit's chance of success. Now that is a bit further away.

About ETH's curent price, the downtrend is caused by people moving funds to catch btc's upside trend and not fundamentals. ETH's rumors are too close to become news so i'd rather not play chasing tail with LTC's segwit.

[iamnotback]

Lol, the Chinaman is manipulating the hell out of this. And they've been reading me because you know how many numerous times I used "tail doesn't wag the dog" in my recent thread about how I am going to end PoW mining. No one else has been using that phrase in our ecosystem lately. So I think I got their attention. Look at Charlie Lee's statement:

https://twitter.com/SatoshiLite/status/850058511199248384

I'm not selling. They are clearly playing a game to shake the trees of weak hands.

And they've been monitoring my posts, because they clearly saw me as a leader in their pump.

So from now on, you might want to do the opposite of what ever I write, because I might be writing BS just to confuse them.

But I will say this, PoW must die. Soon. Didn't I just say I would write BS.

[miscreanity]

About ETH's curent price, the downtrend is caused by people moving funds to catch btc's upside trend and not fundamentals. ETH's rumors are too close to become news so i'd rather not play chasing tail with LTC's segwit.

Probably. I'm not arguing against the fundamentals that provide direction over months and years. It's good to hold all of the majors.

I might be writing BS just to confuse them.

BlockStream?

They can only manipulate for so long - there's still old world capital flow to consider.

[thejaytiesto]

It's insane to see how that chink is blatantly manipulating the market and doing insider trading with an obvious short coupled with that tweet. Then "hey, just joking, segwit continues". And now this?

https://twitter.com/f2pool_wangchun/status/850070006830292992

This guy is a troll playing with people's money. He can crash the market one tweet at a time and keep making millions from the shorts. This is a dangerous game to play when you have to show up IRL and meet investors that get fucked by your tweets.

Anyway, we can't do much follow along. Looks like segwit hype will continue with that remaining 5%, but if they do this again confidence will be destroyed. Too much of a joke to gamble anymore. As of now i'll hold and see what happens, leaving some BTC out of the game just in case.

[mining1]

This is also one of the many reasons why POW sucks. In POS miners are also investors.

[iamnotback]

Who else is tired of this shit?

[thejaytiesto]

Dumped my entire LTC stack by panic selling at 0.009 to watch and see from the sidelines. The good news is I didn't lose any money, in fact I made a decent amount.I decide to stay away from this for the entire weekend, let's see if I can catch the next wave. LTC's segwit still remains closer to getting activated so the speculation-hype is still alive and I think there's money to be made in the next round.

Of course, we are all subjected to unexpected tweets by mining moguls tho so gotta pay attention to those.

[mining1]

I moved my small ltc value into ETH. Think it's quite cheap atm, considering the 3 big news that will follow in the next 30 days. I consider these POW projects with centralized mining extremely risky, one lying tweet and they can double their stash while halving yours. Especially those that can be mined asics, like bitcoin, litecoin, dash, etc.

Edit: Also it is foolish to say "but don't panic" because you can't just hold and risk. LTC's value is backed by nothing since it has 0 usage except speculation. It's as good as doge in that regard. It's only value comes from the hope that one day it might be accepted.

[miscreanity]

Who else is tired of this shit?

Exhausted... but it can fund your project and others (not necessarily crypto-related).

Dumped my entire LTC stack by panic selling at 0.009 to watch and see from the sidelines. The good news is I didn't lose any money, in fact I made a decent amount.I decide to stay away from this for the entire weekend, let's see if I can catch the next wave.

Good, no sense getting stuck and having to hold for months until price crosses your threshold again. The second break of the channel at 0.0089 was my partial sell point. It looks like 0.0078-0.008 is the initial buy target and I've picked up most of what was sold.

Keep an eye on XMR and ZEC as well.

[Hueristic]

I posit a reason that Bitmain's surrogate pools will stop blocking SegWit on Litecoin soon.

If you read the entire linked thread, you will catch up on a lot of the details as to why I am nearly certain Bitcoin is going to remain small blocks and never get scaling.

as Satoshi (aka Nash) intended its equilibrium game theory to be a clusterfuck of politics insuring the immutability of the protocol which is what gives Bitcoin its trust and value.

What did I miss?

Nash?

I can't continue providing links to every thing I write all over the place. But one more time, go read this thread and also this post.

Thanks, found this:
http://www.coindesk.com/did-john-nash-help-invent-bitcoin/

Thanks for the link, I've been saying forever that a global currency must be tied to time and apparently he thinks so as well.

Nash described the concept of ideal money as having the function of a standard of measurement and, thus, it should become comparable to the watt, the hour or a degree of temperature.

[trollercoaster]

Dumped my entire LTC stack by panic selling at 0.009 to watch and see from the sidelines. The good news is I didn't lose any money, in fact I made a decent amount.I decide to stay away from this for the entire weekend, let's see if I can catch the next wave. LTC's segwit still remains closer to getting activated so the speculation-hype is still alive and I think there's money to be made in the next round.

Of course, we are all subjected to unexpected tweets by mining moguls tho so gotta pay attention to those.

Yeah I decided to offload my bag on that final weak push up to .0091, I will probably refill if there's a sell off by speculators to chase the next coin of the week.

[WarrEagle]

I moved my small ltc value into ETH. Think it's quite cheap atm, considering the 3 big news that will follow in the next 30 days. I consider these POW projects with centralized mining extremely risky, one lying tweet and they can double their stash while halving yours. Especially those that can be mined asics, like bitcoin, litecoin, dash, etc.

Edit: Also it is foolish to say "but don't panic" because you can't just hold and risk. LTC's value is backed by nothing since it has 0 usage except speculation. It's as good as doge in that regard. It's only value comes from the hope that one day it might be accepted.

Zero usage is not accurate at all. There are lots of sites that accept LTC and its listed on far more exchanges than numerous other tokens.

https://litecoin.info/Category:Services

[JohnUser]

Does anyone intend to see LTC 50$ before the end of the year ? Most of site i read about ltc talk about 13$ bottom.

I take the ltc train late (10$), seeing it at the same price year after year..

[iamnotback]

Friends this isn't a joke...

Very strong circumstantial evidence that John Nash was Satoshi Nakamoto!

Read this!

He is dead, and to me it appears they firebombed his taxi.  

[Kramerc]

I'm starting to think anonymint might be my alter ego, seeing how he basically posts exactly my thoughts wrt price speculation. Can't be true though, for he is much smarter than me; does this make me his alter ego

[iamnotback]

More discussion over at this other thread. Many are saying this might crash the price of BTC. I never thought of it that way. Do you all think so?

Re: They found Satoshi?

@OP you may have put so much time to make that evidence but for me non of them are convincing. And i think many other also feel same about your evidence.

Here we go again! another serious research thing about Satoshi? but your research was quite accepting with the evidence you have presented and the number of time he is involve in certain and major transaction between different country that will certainly pump up is idea currency and presenting the good benefits it has with the economy, I think you had a point in your research but there are still a big question mark in these, the real truth if Nash really is Satoshi? well one man can not certainly take a step in saying it and change our beliefs right?

No my evidence is based on the timing that he wasn't active publicly presenting was precisely the timing when Satoshi was active publicly.

And also on the focus of his Agencies game theory research being exactly what was needed to see the way from Szabo and Wei Dai's work to Satoshi's PoW solution.

And also because the timing when he went silent to work on coding Bitcoin was right about the time that Szabo (re-)published his bit gold, which was probably the key development that gave Nash the final insight on how to apply his Agencies research to his ideal money concept. Then the evidence shows he went quiet at that time, until right before he launched Bitcoin.

Nash's Agencies research was on Cooperation in Non-Cooperating Repeated Games, which is precisely what Satoshi's PoW is!

It all fits far too well.

You guys are too lazy to read carefully what I wrote in the linked research.