Speculation Rule: buy when others are irrationally pessimistic or too cautious

[iamnotback]

Dollar up, gold down.

Who didn't hear me (and Armstrong) incessantly when gold peaked at $1362?

Gold today $1188.

On the way to $1050. Then possibly $850. We'll have a bottom eventually and then 2018ish or so gold can shine again.

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[Fakhoury]

Is Bitcoin doomed then by 2018 or so ?

Wild speculation is differentiated from certainly doomed.

For example, I could speculate a wild theory that the plan of the global elite is to capture Bitcoin and integrate it with their monetary reset, and ordaining it as an international system for exchanging value.

Also we can't be sure of the timing or even if there will actually be a shutdown of the current monetary system while transitioning to a new one.

And we aren't omniscient about what technologies might be adapted to Bitcoin.

Also we don't know what replacement altcoins might or might not scale up and provide an offramp before hand.

There is a lot of wild conjecture involved in all those factors.

Well said.

But for iamnotback, where does he sees Bitcoin in the long term (10 - 15 years), for price and technology ?

Waiting to hear from you

[EdenHazard]

I doubt we'll get that much acceleration, but let's see what happens.

My intuition would lean rather to a pullback before ATH and a breather before reaching an ATH in 2017. But let's see how my reading of the tea leaves changes between now and then.

Let me add that we need to get past $750 first. That isn't certain yet, although looks likely.

We've reached $751 today. I think it is possible to reach $800 by Christmas.

763,85 next stop should be 789 (last bfx high) then moon

also imnotback: if we reach ATH there would be another cup and handle forming so we could go super high again afterwards no?

we all expect a sweet gift on the christmas , wish it is gonna be true.

i just feel like nostalgia, the same situation happened last year when bitcoin price dropped 4 months before the end of the year but gained back almost 40% in the early year , this can be happened again?

[iamnotback]

Here comes $850 (in gold):

Marty; I find the Global Market Watch really amazing. The talk of India banning gold imports could lead to a crash you have warned about under $1,000. The weekly level in gold came up and said about to crash and even caught the high the week of 07 November. The monthly also caught the high and said it was important back in July. But the monthly level at the close of October said a waterfall in motion. It seems like the GMW can even anticipate fundamentals. I really do not understand how the gold bugs keep attacking you. It appears they enjoy losing.

ANSWER: The Global Market Watch is purely pattern recognition. It is a confirming tool to cycles and reversals. It did a good job on gold. Yes, there are two risks to gold. First the ban by India, but second, as the debt crisis explodes, we will see more central bank selling. We will do a report on gold for year-end. Nothing has changed from what we laid out months ago or at the WEC.

[iamnotback]

Is Bitcoin doomed then by 2018 or so ?

Wild speculation is differentiated from certainly doomed.

For example, I could speculate a wild theory that the plan of the global elite is to capture Bitcoin and integrate it with their monetary reset, and ordaining it as an international system for exchanging value.

Also we can't be sure of the timing or even if there will actually be a shutdown of the current monetary system while transitioning to a new one.

And we aren't omniscient about what technologies might be adapted to Bitcoin.

Also we don't know what replacement altcoins might or might not scale up and provide an offramp before hand.

There is a lot of wild conjecture involved in all those factors.

Well said.

But for iamnotback, where does he sees Bitcoin in the long term (10 - 15 years), for price and technology ?

Waiting to hear from you

I am biased because I think I will kill Bitcoin in a few years.

But as for crypto-currency, I see it widely adopted in less than 15 years. Probably less than 6 more years.

[iamnotback]

I am biased because I think I will kill Bitcoin in a few years.

But as for crypto-currency, I see it widely adopted in less than 15 years. Probably less than 6 more years.

More on this...

I am also from India and facing this issue as well.The main reason behind this have our government is taken a huge step and banned the higher value notes to take control of black money.So peoples here are trying to either buy gold with them quickly and some who know about bitcoins want to buy it.
Every day i see in our india exchange btcxindia.com,the price of bitcoin is just inreasing.

Is gold viable as a currency? How do you trade a gold necklace for a hamburger?

Wouldn't an instant currency transfer with your mobile phone be more practical?

Aren't Indians very fond of having a smart phone as soon as they can afford one?

The government can't stop people from using crypto-currency unless they block the Internet.

Am I correct that Indians hate to pay taxes?

India is Paying $900+ for Bitcoin Amid Cash Crisis

https://news.bitcoin.com/india-paying-900-bitcoin-cash-crisis/

What do you think about this?

They will need to switch to Bitcoin to escape from government taxes:

http://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/after-complaints-of-printing-variations-rbi-says-new-rs-500-rs-2000-notes-legal/

Sadly yes indian dont love to pay taxes but i am totally against it because there is a huge lot of black money in our country which is slowing down country's progress for sure,thats why that strong step being taken to remove all those black money.

Bitcoin can be an option but still to buy bitcoin people have to first deposit their cash to bank account and then buy bitcoin and i that way government can track that big amount is being deposited but yes they can never know how much bitcoins have been holded and hence cannot take tax for that.

Bitcoin has that problem of onboarding, but Steem(it) does not. And there is a better clone/kind of Steem(it) coming which I think is going to make it very easy for the people to get crypto-currency without needing to go through an exchange. And then the world will change. I say this, because I am the person who is creating this new project.

Why is not paying taxes bad for your country? The government is the most inefficient use of resources, so keeping resources out of the government's hands should be the best for growing the economy.

“An elephant is a mouse built to government specifications.”  ― Lazarus Long

You think the government is the only entity which can build roads, schools, and provide food and health care to the indigent?

Rather the problem in India is your country doesn't allow foreigners to invest there without a lot of corrupt bureaucracy. The problem of India is all the corruption. I read there are corrupt police and officials and it is very difficult and dangerous to attempt to do business there.

So what you really need in India is to stop the caste system and stop the corruption.

With crypto-currency and the Internet, we can empower the people of India to rise above the corruption, because the government officials can't control the Internet, the way they can control the lands, the licenses to build infrastructure and do physical business. The virtual economy is global and the people can increasingly go to it to earn income which can't be corrupted.

This is the future.

[uki]

@OP:
technically we have a double top formation with the lower second top on the chart for this year. This looks technically ugly, and I guess correction is imminent.
how about that? Do you still think it is a good buying time?

[bitebits]

@OP:
technically we have a double top formation with the lower second top on the chart for this year. This looks technically ugly, and I guess correction is imminent.
how about that? Do you still think it is a good buying time?

It is called 'painting the chart', so a meaningless indicator if you ask me.

Bitcoin has so much room to grow since it still is very tiny on a macro level. Not even a blip on the radar. So of course it is a good time to buy, considering the insane upward potential versus the limited downward potential (0.00 $).


Speculation Rule: sell when others are irrationally optimistic or too reckless. We are far from there at a meager 12 billion market cap.

[lumeire]

Like right now I suppose? People are beginning to be more cautious.

[sandiman]

@OP:
technically we have a double top formation with the lower second top on the chart for this year. This looks technically ugly, and I guess correction is imminent.
how about that? Do you still think it is a good buying time?

It is called 'painting the chart', so a meaningless indicator if you ask me.

Bitcoin has so much room to grow since it still is very tiny on a macro level. Not even a blip on the radar. So of course it is a good time to buy, considering the insane upward potential versus the limited downward potential (0.00 $).


Speculation Rule: sell when others are irrationally optimistic or too reckless. We are far from there at a meager 12 billion market cap.

greed + meaning less speculation arguments = welcome joe 

[audaciousbeing]

I totally agree with OP's position and that is what any reasonable trader would want to do. To buy when the price is low and when people are not sure then sell when the price is on the increase then you make enough income. But the issue is "when is the right time to buy" when people are dumping? and you just decide to buy? what will be my basis?. If people are skeptical about a coin, is that enough reason for me to buy? among other questions that remained unanswered. Everything boils down to risk which a trader will take and sometimes lucky and some other times will be bitten hard.

[bitebits]

^ Buy low, sell high. Sounds easy in theory, but in practice most of us miserably fail while doing so (same for >90% of the actively managed 'professional' investment funds versus solid low fee diversified index funds).

Second best is just buy and hold. In the end they are after your appreciating deflationary bitcoins instead of your depreciating inflationary fiat.

[iamnotback]

@OP:
technically we have a double top formation with the lower second top on the chart for this year. This looks technically ugly, and I guess correction is imminent.
how about that? Do you still think it is a good buying time?

"Buy when others are irrationally pessimistic or too cautious"

Do you not see the uptrend? That imaginary "double top" is just the unavoidable intersection of that powerful uptrend with the prior Bitfinex hack (likely an insider "hack" where the exchange is shorting and did the hack).

that is the time when price is at the lowest (with the exception of weird unexpected stuff like bitfinex hack and the drop).

The Bitfinex hack overreaction was another buying opportunity.

In the short term, anything is possible. There could be a hack or something which could create a sell-off and buying opportunity. But that uptrend line will over a long enough time horizon remain intact.

[pereira4]

Don't worry about whether Bitcoin is perfected yet. It is just time for it to go back to ATHs because there are finally major upgrades on the way. Buy rumor, then sell the news. Meaning you are buying the fact that crypto is progressing and not sell because of the realization it isn't perfect yet. The problems of crypto will get worked out over time via competition from altcoins and Bitcoin. Right now, the smart (early mover) money is selling altcoins to buy Bitcoin in anticipation of the big move up which appears to probably be finally upon us.

Then at ATHs next year, they will be selling BTC to buy into altcoins for the next wave of 10 - 100X gains on the serious altcoins.

Learn how the smart money is getting rich in crypto (trading between BTC and altcoins, and buying serious altcoin ICOs and holding for the 10X price rise). You need to first toss out your emotions and learn to think rationally.

Overall good calls.. for me the uptrend is clear. We have been on the way up since january 2015, where me and some others called an unique opportunity to get in at such low prices (BTC traded as low as 150ish during that crash). Of course and always ruling out potential "hacks" (which btw, over time seem to be less damaging to bitcoin because it absorbs the impact better), the uptrend is still there and there are positive stuff to look forward with the up and coming software upgrades. The problem of mining persists, but I am also positive about us seeing the situation improve:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2-fUosBOu58

Therefore and given that there's no real competition right now, bitcoin remains the king of crypto and every time someone thinks about putting their wealth into some sort of void outside of the standard options, they will think about bitcoin. As banning carrying gold around becomes the norm and more people get aware on bitcoin, we will see an huge surge in marketcap.

Im also all about getting rich through altcoins during BTC corrections.. problem is, I see less and less "serious altcoins" popping. It seems to me like everything has been tried before, and it has always failed to get any traction. Do you see any ICO worth investing at? Most ICOs end up at lower prices than they sell for. Once it hits the market, instadumps always happen, then it's when you should actually consider buying, in hopes for a post-ICO pump that may or not happen, so it's a total gamble. Even "really serious" coins like ETH can end up in an endless mess and never get anywhere after they peak.

I feel like getting rich with an altcoin requires very precise movements and situations... like the ETH/ETC mess was a good one. Or when new concepts are introduced like back in the day with NXT (I think it was the first POS) or Blackcoin (afaik it was the birth of "hybrid mining" and people got hyped) + all that marketing they invested at, or when there's a big project like MAID that has not gotten any press, then it goes viral, explodes in price, and unfortunately keeps stagnating for ages again.. there's always a big risk of buying something that all it does is stagnate unless you sell it at a moderate price increase (if you get too greedy, you will miss the pump). It sucks since you get way less profits, but it's worse to end up with a bag of useless coins.

Then there's Litecoin and the "silver" psychological factor (which for me is it has the "original altcoin" aura about it too)... you may think right now by looking at the all time graph, it has bottomed and it's a good bet to buy a decent amount for a long term strategy of waiting for a BTC disturbance and hoping for another LTC pump, but you may see it stagnate in slow motion for many more months... and who knows. We have not seen it yet, but we may start seeing "famous" coins getting delisted if they stagnate coupled with no software updates.

I just don't see anything that makes me want to move a single BTC from my wallet. All horses have been already beaten. The smart contracts one, the "anonymous coins" one with the XMR viral news and the ZEC mess, MAID as far as I know still fails to deliver what they promised, then you have ETH with the constant hard forks, the STEEM thing which got pumped by famous crypto people and we all know what happened.. I see no good investment opportunities, not even for pump and dumping with a reason other than pure luck (for example 1Credit whatever that is, just got pumped the fuck out out of nowhere)

[iamnotback]

re: Jim Rickards: How to make a fortune before 2018

At 6:30 minute he predicted gold would rise $100 if Trump won.

Well I also predicted Trump would win and even wrote a detailed blog on why.

And I also wrote extensively about that gold had peaked at $1362 and would crash after the coming Trump victory, and head towards $1050 and probably a low of $850.

It is all in the Martin Armstrong thread.

Rickards is correct about the coming monetary reset, but he is wrong about gold in the near-term. Again everything  you need to know is in the Martin Armstrong thread.

Continue to ignore me at your peril. And that includes the Bitcoin killer altcoin I will soon be launching.

(Note I also predicted the recent rise of Bitcoin from mid $600s to high $700s. I also predicted the rise of silver from $20s to $48 and fall back to $20s back in 2010 many months before it happened. That was published on marketoracle.co.uk. I also predicted the fall of Bitcoin from the $700s to $300 and then the $150 low.)

[iamnotback]

@OP:
technically we have a double top formation with the lower second top on the chart for this year. This looks technically ugly, and I guess correction is imminent.
how about that? Do you still think it is a good buying time?

"Buy when others are irrationally pessimistic or too cautious"

Do you not see the uptrend? That imaginary "double top" is just the unavoidable intersection of that powerful uptrend with the prior Bitfinex hack (likely an insider "hack" where the exchange is shorting and did the hack).

that is the time when price is at the lowest (with the exception of weird unexpected stuff like bitfinex hack and the drop).

The Bitfinex hack overreaction was another buying opportunity.

And so as I told you: Bitcoin Price Watch; Breakout Time!

[iamnotback]

And so as I told you: Bitcoin Price Watch; Breakout Time!

Looks like a serious breakout to ATHs is within months:

Core is working on a 2mb hardfork proposal, testing is in progress! Amazing news!

" 4) Some of us also agreed to work on another hardfork proposal including a 2 MB "no wallet changes necessary" block size bump, which we've been making progress on over the past year, including even after conclusion of the original agreement (there is currently a testnet for an incomplete version running)."

http://np.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/5gcg98/will_there_be_no_capacity_improvements_for_the/darfdyg/

Note they need the raise the upper limit of block size (while lowering the average block size with the one-time SegWit compression) in order to accommodate surge load and also one of the flaws of Lightning Networks is it can place very high surge load on the blockchain.

So although this isn't the fix for the long-term, it is a near-term solution to open the throttle on Bitcoin adoption.

[iamnotback]

I have nothing more to say to you fools who don't recognize that Armstrong has been correct (you all go on ignore for being useless noise trolls and will no longer even be responded to! Waste of time!):

We are witnessing what a Private Wave is all about. The Italian Referendum came in on point with the NO vote at  59.4% against 40.6%. Our model is now four for four with BREXIT, Trump, Hollande in France exiting the election, and now Italy. We will see the same defeat for Merkel.

What politicians do not grasp is that they have destroyed the world economy with taxes and regulation. Enough is enough. In Europe, the single currency has totally failed because it required a single debt. The refusal to consolidate the debts has been the death of the Euro.

This is all playing out into a major dollar rally for like a game of musical chairs, it’s the last place to park money.

[Dafar]

Buy rumor, then sell the news. Meaning you are buying the fact that crypto is progressing and not sell because of the realization it isn't perfect yet. The problems of crypto will get worked out over time via competition from altcoins and Bitcoin.

I completely agree with this logic.


SegWit, LN, schnorr signatures, etc upgrades + ETF (SolidX + Winkelvoss) are the rumors right now. I don't wanna buy after these come into fruition.


The only thing that slightly concerns me is that everyone seems to be bullish... which goes against the "buy when others are fearful, sell when others are greedy" logic

[pereira4]

Buy rumor, then sell the news. Meaning you are buying the fact that crypto is progressing and not sell because of the realization it isn't perfect yet. The problems of crypto will get worked out over time via competition from altcoins and Bitcoin.

I completely agree with this logic.


SegWit, LN, schnorr signatures, etc upgrades + ETF (SolidX + Winkelvoss) are the rumors right now. I don't wanna buy after these come into fruition.


The only thing that slightly concerns me is that everyone seems to be bullish... which goes against the "buy when others are fearful, sell when others are greedy" logic

This works until it doesn't. A lot of people may think like you, "these suckers don't know once the software upgrades actually take place people will sell". Well it may turn out a lot of people think alike and it actually pumps harder after the software gets updated and you end up missing on further gains. The fact is, predicting dips is hard, but the real hard part is predicting when to buy back and when to sell at what you may consider a peak.