Speculation Rule: buy when others are irrationally pessimistic or too cautious

[eddie13]

While I think it may go down just as well as it may go up, I don't think it would go much further down, but it may go a lot further up..
Either could happen while I'm not paying attention so I am heavily debating entering a long right now to sleep on..

The potential upside looks much greater than the potential downside, with the chances of either being about the same, that is much better gambling odds than you would get in a casino..

[iamnotback]

I get tempted to sell at $900 (right now we are at $901) because the $800 ish stable zone (with a potential dip to $700) makes sense and I lost the possibility to make some extra BTC by selling at $1100, but im too paranoid about it... at the end of the day we don't know what can happen. Going from the current $901 to $800 may seem reasonable but I may wake up to $1000+ again tomorrow for I all know... this is bitcoin after all.
I don't want to be left behind in a bad move holding USDT (I would use USDT in poloniex so I can avoid giving details to exchanges since there's no way im dealing with real fiat, so USDT seems like the alternative to try to play the BTC market a bit and stay anonymous)

I am not trying to increase my BTC. The 9.5 BTC I have is to pay my expenses over the next months. I should have sold some at $1100 because I was wallowing in illness and wasn't able to stay on computer.

My stance is that 10 x $300 is not going to change my life. It won't make a huge difference in whether I succeed or fail in greater endeavors.

So I am not going to panic sell at $900. We don't know if BTC might not go much higher right now.

If BTC bounces back up to $1000 and I happen to be on the computer, I will sell 2.5 BTC. But I am not selling all 9.5 BTC prematurely. There is a clear bull market underway and I doubt we are any where near the top yet. Prices will be much, much higher by 2018.

I don't think it would go much further down, but it may go a lot further up..

It won't go below $700. Period (unless something really bizarre happens such as China banning Bitcoin). Probably not below $800.

And it is headed to much higher prices. The bull market is intact and this is a healthy correction.

Flip a coin. Either we are going much higher now, or we will meander for some months first and perhaps even make another cup & handle dip to $700 first.

The $1300 ATH will be breached by 2018 at the absolute latest.

I am leaning towards we are entering a frenzy period. As you say, China appears to be driving this.

I think the price will double top up to $1300 - $1500 within the next weeks and then decline to $600 - $700 over the next 2-3 months with another run up for the latter half of 2017  You're in the wrong place if you're seeking financial stability..

I don't subscribe to any specific prediction, but volatility does appear to be increasing.

If you want to ride this wild horse, don't get thrown off.

[iamnotback]

Another opportunity to buy when others are fearful. Take your gift immediately while illogical fear is maximum and there is blood in the streets.

Re: China putting capital controls on BTC! (lol)

Afaics, the only practical technical way this can be accomplished is to ensure that the users never hold the private keys and thus ensuring that the exchanges do not allow any transfers to any Bitcoin address which is not controlled by the exchange (or another compliant exchange). To ensure that no exchange user can reside outside of China and that no such user can withdraw in fiat outside of the Chinese banking system. If they were to allow users to control private keys, then they would have to enforce such tracking on each user which is impractical to enforce.

Thus this proposal means that the Chinese could no longer participate in for example a social network (such as the project I am working on) where the crypto-currency moves from user-to-user regardless of their financial jurisdiction and in which the users control their private keys.

In other words, China would effectively be removing their citizens from the Bitcoin (and crypto-currency) ecosystem.

I don't see any way they can do this and not render China a 2nd class citizen on the future of the Internet economics. They will stunt the development of their own Internet software technology sector.

If China was going to do this, I think they would have done it a long time ago. I would tend to think this is some rumor put out there by those who wanted to make a lot of money shorting. Another sign that the corruption in governance also exists in the government of China's finance bureaucrats (and who would be surprised). Nevertheless before this could actually become a regulation, I think very astute people would have to sign off on it, and I just don't see China shooting themselves in the foot. They are too cunning for that. That Bloomberg has pulled the news off their website is another indication that this was probably malfeasance.

I see this as very likely a buying opportunity and a bear trap due to some errant malfeasance within the Chinese bureaucracy.

China Curbs Gold Imports

This would automatically shift demand to digital gold, aka Bitcoin. If that happens, you can expect China to take action restricting purchases of Bitcoin in some time. So a short and quick raise in bitcoin's price would be followed by a dump.  

Don't bet on it. First of all, it will boost smuggling and black market activity. Bitcoin is a niche product, only few people are aware of it as an investment alternative. The direct impact of China news on Bitcoin prices is greatly exaggerated.

So I don't expect a rise in BTC price because of it. Even if the scenario you are pointing out becomes reality, restrictions for Bitcoin purchases would not succeed on a large scale, because you can't ban p2p trade.

China doesn't need to import BTC since most of the minted BTC is now mined inside of China. Unless China can track ongoing every BTC mined in China by requiring them to be sold and held on regulated exchanges that never allow users to have access to private keys (which would not be Bitcoin any more), then they have no hope of regulating it.

If China does basterdize BTC that way, then Bitcoin is dead. And we will just move on to another altcoin. In which case the mining farms in China will be useless door stops. Also China would be shooting its own technology sector in the foot. I just don't think China's think tanks are this stupid.

China is powerless to stop crypto-currency.

Besides the capital flight via BTC is so damn small so as to be insignificant. The entire market cap of Bitcoin is only a minuscule $12 billion. The daily volume on Bitcoin is $48 million and RNB forex volume is some $5 trillion annually or $14 billion daily. We need a 10 or 100X higher BTC price before we have to worry about it being significant to China's capital flight volumes.


... [more to read] ...

[miscreanity]

... This would be especially true if we get any rumor out of China or India regulating Bitcoin further for capital controls. I don't expect it since Bitcoin is such an irrelevant small market cap, but Armstrong seems to think otherwise (yet he is not a Bitcoin expert and is always harping on this end of cash theme):

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/taxes/bitcoin-what-next/

There are a few issues that I have not seen cleared up by Armstrong. He has said that he does not dislike Bitcoin and stated that he thinks Google Wallet is more important. That may be on the consumer side, but the system is always more complex behind the scenes where I think Bitcoin is more apt to reside.

I had inquired as to whether Socrates has enough information to forecast Bitcoin. No reply was made and I suspect this is why there have been no charts on it.

Universality
One of the most significant positives for Bitcoin is that it is a common platform; no nation is actively excluded or prevented from using it today. Any consortium effort that does not involve all sides will invariably lead to a situation as exists with SWIFT wherein major parties are excluded or threatened by controlling members, so China may be more inclined to incorporate Bitcoin due to its relative control over the system and the appealing attributes that attract other other nations. Those other nations might be wary but would be unable to deny the established global usage and overall simplicity of onboarding.

Adaptability
Another positive is the adaptability of the sytem: Bitcoin is capable of changing to a greater degree and at an exceptionally faster rate than current financial systems. Capital controls including AML/KYC affect all forms of money and take time to implement; it won't happen overnight. Thanks to the flexible nature of Bitcoin, it is very likely that Mike Hearn's exploration of control and tracking in the system will become reality sooner rather than later.

Durability
The longer Bitcoin proves itself as a reliable platform, the more likely it will be that major government entities will adopt it. Along with that adoption, they will seek to undermine the liberty-related aspects via that flexibility just as they do with any other non-trivial freedoms.

As you've stated, Bitcoin could become the world's reserve currency - the institutional playground. This leaves me wondering whether a new Bretton Woods agreement may peg fiat currency to Bitcoin, probably at a discounted rate prior to being declared void, during a transition period. What remains is the time between now and then where there are no well-defined rules governing the cryptocurrency frontier. What will the pegged price be? How long will it take until the changes have been made? Will all major governments agree at once or will there be a polarization? Is this even what will actually occur?

[trollercoaster]

I had inquired as to whether Socrates has enough information to forecast Bitcoin. No reply was made and I suspect this is why there have been no charts on it.

I asked him this a while ago, he does not believe bitcoin is anything new nor is it going to survive, bitcoin didn't interest him at the time, so "no data"
I believe he would be able to forecast it now though to some degree based on smaller cycles, it may require too much research for something he believes will die in a few years.

[tabnloz]

nice thread and analysis iamnotback, miscreanity.

[trollercoaster]

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/precious-metals/gold/the-overview/

BTC appears to be coiling too, which way will it go mates?

[iamnotback]

As you've stated, Bitcoin could become the world's reserve currency - the institutional playground.

I have never said that and have instead argued that it won't be the reserve currency. Perhaps you are confusing where I have written that Bitcoin is the reserve currency of the altcoin ecosystem.

China has control over Bitcoin's mining and it is not yet a significant threat to capital controls (due to small volume), so I just don't see them reacting with regulation yet. Once BTC hits $5000+, then we may see China killing the nosebleed rally with regulation. It seems premature for them to do that now.

And because China controls the mining of Bitcoin, thus Bitcoin can never become the global reserve currency.

I had inquired as to whether Socrates has enough information to forecast Bitcoin. No reply was made and I suspect this is why there have been no charts on it.

I asked him this a while ago, he does not believe bitcoin is anything new nor is it going to survive, bitcoin didn't interest him at the time, so "no data"
I believe he would be able to forecast it now though to some degree based on smaller cycles, it may require too much research for something he believes will die in a few years.

Armstrong is myopic in this case. He can't possibly see the technological future. He doesn't understand that crypto-currency and blockchains are not just Bitcoin. This a movement towards decentralization that is a fundamental technological change and it can't be stopped.

My whitepaper will improve upon PoW and PoS and we will enter a new period of rapid innovation. Stay tuned...

The point is that crypto-currency and blockchains are not just Bitcoin nor are they just about a money system. It is much more broad than that and it is about the Knowledge Age. The reserve currency is a narrow phenomenon that has more to do with the dying Industrial Age (see my comments in the Economic Devastation thread for more insights).

Bitcoin is serving a purpose in this evolution but it is not the be-all or end-all of this technological transformation.

Make sure you read this:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg17458485#msg17458485

[iamnotback]

The following is scaremongering nonsense:

https://99bitcoins.com/why-is-bitcoin-going-down/

That author needs to read this thread and pay attention to the charts I posted upthread about technology adoption.

Bitcoin is now entering a more mature phase of investment/speculation (albeit with increasing volatility as the price moves higher faster) as it has matured into a vehicle for international capital transfer. The current price rise is a stable trajectory which is only in its infancy. The price is going much, much higher.

We might stall out in a cup formation for some months, but that would be the worst case scenario. There is a potential of moving higher sooner, perhaps within 3 months or less.

Tonight some random 20-something filipina (girl) asked me if Bitcoin is real bcz her friend is trying to sell her Bitcoin. That is a sign that Bitcoin is becoming much more mature! Asian girls selling each other Bitcoin.

Edit: more about my past performance:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=355212.msg17462668#msg17462668

[miscreanity]

As you've stated, Bitcoin could become the world's reserve currency - the institutional playground.

I have never said that and have instead argued that it won't be the reserve currency. Perhaps you are confusing where I have written that Bitcoin is the reserve currency of the altcoin ecosystem.

Yes, my mistake - altcoin reserve.

Would it be possible for Bitcoin to become a global reserve currency at all? I'm assuming competitive collusion among major governments along with addition of control and tracking sufficient to enable AML/KYC for those governments.

[miscreanity]

Imagine my surprise when the projection channel (red parallel lines) that I had added yesterday wound up being the stopping point of the decline.



Price had spiked to just below that channel but climbed back in almost immediately. It is still possible for a decline to around $700 but, if the projection channel holds, we may be set for an acceleration in value to the upside. Otherwise the longer-tem handle of the cup & handle becomes a stronger probability.

For now, I'm buying a small position at 780 with an eye to stop out at 760.

[iamnotback]

Armstrong on bitcoin again

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/precious-metals/gold/bitcoin-is-it-sustainable/

Doesn't really get into it in any depth. Seems convinced govt will ban it if it grows.

Armstrong doesn't understand that it is technically implausible to ban Bitcoin.

He doesn't understand that is why Bitcoin is the new escape valve, i.e. the new gold per my discussion with CoinCube. Bitcoin is transportable and gold no longer is.

We will need a world government and complete totalitarian control over every server that connects to the Internet via every host in the world in order to regulate crypto-currency and blockchains. We need absolute global totalitarianism in order to relegate crypto-currency to the new uselessness of gold, and that won't happen during this global collapse (that is for a future time as the Bible predicts). It isn't only Bitcoin, there are many altcoins.

Please send this rebuttal to Armstrong.

[iamnotback]

The reserve currency is a narrow phenomenon that has more to do with the dying Industrial Age (see my comments in the Economic Devastation thread for more insights).

Bitcoin is serving a purpose in this evolution but it is not the be-all or end-all of this technological transformation.

Make sure you read this:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg17458485#msg17458485

As you've stated, Bitcoin could become the world's reserve currency - the institutional playground.

I have never said that and have instead argued that it won't be the reserve currency. Perhaps you are confusing where I have written that Bitcoin is the reserve currency of the altcoin ecosystem.

Yes, my mistake - altcoin reserve.

Would it be possible for Bitcoin to become a global reserve currency at all? I'm assuming competitive collusion among major governments along with addition of control and tracking sufficient to enable AML/KYC for those governments.

The coming SDRs reserve currency will be a compromise by all the nations to fix the coming strong dollar vortex global collapse. That reserve currency is for the Industrial Age economy (the one built with huge fixed capital investment and huge fractional reserve banking leverage). The leftists (collectivists) are enslaving themselves in that dying, but huge albatross monolith. Gold is dying along with that physical economy. We will still have a physical economy, but it will provide no real economic growth and it will become very small in terms of profit relative to the Knowledge Age economy over the coming decades.

Bitcoin, blockchains, and altcoins are the decentralization technology of the fledgling Knowledge Age which rises to replace the dying Industrial Age, as a network effect of the decentralized Internet. Bitcoin is the reserve currency of that new nascent economy.

The economy and society are bifurcating. I predicted this years ago and have been using that term bifurcation.

[iamnotback]

Imagine my surprise when the projection channel (red parallel lines) that I had added yesterday wound up being the stopping point of the decline.



Price had spiked to just below that channel but climbed back in almost immediately. It is still possible for a decline to around $700 but, if the projection channel holds, we may be set for an acceleration in value to the upside. Otherwise the longer-tem handle of the cup & handle becomes a stronger probability.

For now, I'm buying a small position at 780 with an eye to stop out at 760.

This very high volatility is indicative of shaking the trees of weak hands and stop losses on the way to much higher prices.

The $700 cup is still possible though, because the price rise acceleration was extreme and we may not yet be ready to enter the phase transition. Perhaps the global capital controls are not extreme enough yet. Yet I think that accelerated channel may hold up.

$1300 in 2017, probably within 6 months or less. We've broken out above $788 Bitfinex-hack high, accelerating, opening wedge, and two flag patterns. This is uber bullish.

Yet with $700 as the absolute bottom, I would be buying hand and fist with no stop loss above $700 at this point. Although they say don't catch a falling knife, but is this really a crash (exchanges being investigated bullshit rumor to shake the trees?) or just a taking profits -> stop-loss -> piling on short correction?

I don't subscribe to any specific prediction, but volatility does appear to be increasing.

If you want to ride this wild horse, don't get thrown off.

Again back to the theme of this thread. Buy when others are irrationally short or pessimistic. We are in a sustained bull market now. All pullbacks are to the bought aggressively.

My prior two posts explained why Bitcoin is in a perma bull uptrend now. The early adopter bubble of 2013 is behind us. We are in the massive adoption phase now as the new gold to avoid capital controls. This will provide the impetus for another massive speculation bubble with grandmas piling in later at nosebleed prices ($5000+).

That author needs to read this thread and pay attention to the charts I posted upthread about technology adoption.

Bitcoin is now entering a more mature phase of investment/speculation (albeit with increasing volatility as the price moves higher faster) as it has matured into a vehicle for international capital transfer. The current price rise is a stable trajectory which is only in its infancy. The price is going much, much higher.

...

Tonight some random 20-something filipina (girl) asked me if Bitcoin is real bcz her friend is trying to sell her Bitcoin. That is a sign that Bitcoin is becoming much more mature! Asian girls selling each other Bitcoin.

Readers make sure you review the following two upthread posts:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1663070.msg17172787#msg17172787

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1663070.msg16697003#msg16697003

[Tanic]

Isn't now the exactly such time? Bitcoin dropped low and fast and there is no any directly information why it happend, so many people are on panic now. Good time to buy bitcoins.

[iamnotback]

Isn't now the exactly such time? Bitcoin dropped low and fast and there is no any directly information why it happend, so many people are on panic now. Good time to buy bitcoins.

Indeed! All those who bought at the decline to the prior breakout price $788 should pat themselves on the back.

The $700 cup is still a possibility but that doesn't scare me.

[iamnotback]

Armstrong on bitcoin again

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/precious-metals/gold/bitcoin-is-it-sustainable/

Doesn't really get into it in any depth. Seems convinced govt will ban it if it grows.

Armstrong doesn't understand that it is technically implausible to ban Bitcoin.

He doesn't understand that is why Bitcoin is the new escape valve, i.e. the new gold per my discussion with CoinCube. Bitcoin is transportable and gold no longer is.

We will need a world government and complete totalitarian control over every server that connects to the Internet via every host in the world in order to regulate crypto-currency and blockchains. We need absolute global totalitarianism in order to relegate crypto-currency to the new uselessness of gold, and that won't happen during this global collapse (that is for a future time as the Bible predicts). It isn't only Bitcoin, there are many altcoins.

Please send this rebuttal to Armstrong.

It may indeed be impossible to ban bitcoin in the long term, but in the short to medium term? It would IMHO be very messy should a major economic player attempt such a thing.

Imagine the US gov. shutting down coinbase/bitstamp/etc, even declaring jail time for those that are caught using bitcoin after the ban.  Bitcoin investors would panic and most bitcoin holders would make a mad dash for the exit, cratering the price.  It would almost certainly end up recovering eventually (as you said it would require a NWO to ban completely), but who knows how long that might take; in the meantime btc wouldn't look so good as store of value even to those not directly affected.  I feel a ban from a major nation such as the US or China would not be a negligible event, and I would imagine Armstrong is thinking along those lines.

It would be a great opportunity to back up the truck and fill it up with BTC at lower prices, because this would be the US government shooting themselves in the foot.

The worst thing a government can do is ban something only to have the population give them the middle finger and it be proven that the government is impotent. From there, Bitcoin would skyrocket in price as it being shown how powerless the government is to ban it.

You are too fearful because you are a short-term speculator. Long-term crypto-currency investors understand that this is a paradigm shift for the world and they understand they are going to be very wealthy over the coming decade.

Weak hands will be thrown off and end up not being wealthy.

[iamnotback]

Bitcoin is revolution but will it be used on more wide scale payment system?

It may be my altcoin which does that. But Bitcoin will remain the reserve currency of the altcoins and the on/off ramp to fiat. The point is the crypto-currency and blockchain ecosystem is a paradigm shift which will enable the Knowledge Age. The SDRs will be for the dying Industrial Age physical, usurious economy.

but I do not believe that "SDRs" are going to be going anywhere anytime soon, to be honest.

Because you don't understand Martin Armstrong's short dollar vortex thesis which makes the BW#2 monetary reset a certainty. The world will demand the strong dollar be replaced with a cooperate reserve unit, i.e. the SDR. This is a certainty.

[tabnloz]

Bitcoin is revolution but will it be used on more wide scale payment system?

It may be my altcoin which does that. But Bitcoin will remain the reserve currency of the altcoins and the on/off ramp to fiat. The point is the crypto-currency and blockchain ecosystem is a paradigm shift which will enable the Knowledge Age. The SDRs will be for the dying Industrial Age physical, usurious economy.

but I do not believe that "SDRs" are going to be going anywhere anytime soon, to be honest.

Because you don't understand Martin Armstrong's short dollar vortex thesis which makes the BW#2 monetary reset a certainty. The world will demand the strong dollar be replaced with a cooperate reserve unit, i.e. the SDR. This is a certainty.

Additionally, SDR's won't be for the general public. They will be the unit that governments use between each other. You'll never see one; you'll just continue using your USD or national equivalent. And when inflation kicks or whatever, your government can throw up its hands and blame the IMF. Can't vote the IMF out.

[iamnotback]

Armstrong on bitcoin again

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/precious-metals/gold/bitcoin-is-it-sustainable/

Doesn't really get into it in any depth. Seems convinced govt will ban it if it grows.

Armstrong doesn't understand that it is technically implausible to ban Bitcoin.

He doesn't understand that is why Bitcoin is the new escape valve, i.e. the new gold per my discussion with CoinCube. Bitcoin is transportable and gold no longer is.

We will need a world government and complete totalitarian control over every server that connects to the Internet via every host in the world in order to regulate crypto-currency and blockchains. We need absolute global totalitarianism in order to relegate crypto-currency to the new uselessness of gold, and that won't happen during this global collapse (that is for a future time as the Bible predicts). It isn't only Bitcoin, there are many altcoins.

Please send this rebuttal to Armstrong.

It may indeed be impossible to ban bitcoin in the long term, but in the short to medium term? It would IMHO be very messy should a major economic player attempt such a thing.

Imagine the US gov. shutting down coinbase/bitstamp/etc, even declaring jail time for those that are caught using bitcoin after the ban.  Bitcoin investors would panic and most bitcoin holders would make a mad dash for the exit, cratering the price.  It would almost certainly end up recovering eventually (as you said it would require a NWO to ban completely), but who knows how long that might take; in the meantime btc wouldn't look so good as store of value even to those not directly affected.  I feel a ban from a major nation such as the US or China would not be a negligible event, and I would imagine Armstrong is thinking along those lines.

It would be a great opportunity to back up the truck and fill it up with BTC at lower prices, because this would be the US government shooting themselves in the foot.

The worst thing a government can do is ban something only to have the population give them the middle finger and it be proven that the government is impotent. From there, Bitcoin would skyrocket in price as it being shown how powerless the government is to ban it.

You are too fearful because you are a short-term speculator. Long-term crypto-currency investors understand that this is a paradigm shift for the world and they understand they are going to be very wealthy over the coming decade.

Weak hands will be thrown off and end up not being wealthy.

Apparently some of you have messaged Armstrong, but he is hard-headed and still doesn't understand that technically it is implausible ban all crypto-currencies regardless if the government wants to:

I understand that people say I am wrong about bitcoin or cryptocurrencies. You cannot possibly fight against government. They can say whatever they want and their judges rule in government’s favor. Forget it! You cannot find any possible legal argument that will ever survive.

Can someone please message him and explain to him how dull minded he is on this issue. Explain what I wrote as quoted above about needing to ban every server on the planet. How the hell are governments going to coordinate and then enforce that?

Oh course governments can probably regulate the mining farms in China (and they could attack and hardfork with their superior hashrate), but that is why we will have altcoins, in particular the one I am developing which doesn't depend on either proof-of-work nor proof-of-stake.

Remind Martin, it is Shelby Moore who is refuting him. He should remember me from email. I am tired of emailing him. He should hear from more of you, instead always myself emailing him.