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Gillette
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January 13, 2017, 11:47:50 AM |
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Shelby, what about POS coins? Don`t you think they are totally immune from government controls?
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iamnotback (OP)
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January 13, 2017, 01:46:35 PM |
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Looks like neither Armstrong nor even iamnotback advised us of BTC's 15% drop last night...
Incorrect. I advised that BTC would be very volatile. I also concurred with a maximum decline to $700, but a more likely decline back to the prior breakout at $788 (which is exactly what happened). Go read my posts and you will find it. Please don't lie again about me. Edit: you will also find where I concurred with $1100 - $1200 being the price to take profits. I have been predicting this perfectly. You just aren't reading all my posts intently. Someone questioned my honesty in a PM and I replied as follows: I advise extreme caution in backdating old predictions to make them "better".
I haven't edited any posts to change predictions. (I suggest readers add my posts to archive.org so there is a non-editable record) If you can't find the predictions I've claimed, it is because you are not treating my posts as a puzzle that has to be solved. Reading my posts chronologically can reveal what I was thinking more completely, than any one post in isolation. I did indeed state I didn't think BTC wouldn't fall much below $800 (with the $700 cup scenario being less likely but also possible), I did indeed state the pullback would come near the former ATH and I did indeed state in a response to trollercoaster to expect high volatility but to ride the wild horse because we are in a bull market now. Sometimes there are people who ask me specifically to confirm my specifics more explicitly and sometimes I do. I am in the midst of traveling since Monday Jan 9, so my posts are quick and sporadic when I get a moment to pop in and post. Nevertheless the above is not backdated. P.S. thanks for the compliment. I am not trying to claim I am infallible. Edit: I am too sleepy to go dig up the posts right now for proof. But the last time coinits challenged my veracity, this is what happened: You predicted BTC to crash to less than $100 by now. You predicted XMR was a nothing coin. Care to offer your thoughts now?
I have not really been following all iamnotbacks BTC predictions but I am aware of the following predictions. On October 14th 2014 when the price was around $374 he predicted a sustained BTC decline to $150. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=624223.msg9195517#msg9195517It did not get there but it did decline and spiked down close to that on January 14th 2015. Plz read that post of mine again. I did not write "sustained". I merely called for a bottom in the $150 - $200 range, which ended up being true! Also I alluded in that post to prior public predictions I had made when it was $600 predicting it would fall to the $300s, which is did! I made that prediction earlier than that on Oct. 27. Even OROBTC will confirm that I was telling him in PMs to buy BTC in the mid-$600s. I also wrote this: Any one buying precious metals right now and not Bitcoin @$700 is an idiot.
He categorically predicted the complete collapse of BTC and XMR.
I have not seen him predict the complete collapse of BTC and I have read a good portion (but definitely not all) of his stuff. Do you have a link to back that up? Here is proof coinits is lying: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1387214.msg17297476#msg17297476https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1727852.msg17295418#msg17295418I remember him arguing that BTC will eventually centralize and fall under government control way back in 2014 but even in that scenario BTC would not necessarily collapse. It would probably become some kind of official government quasi-fiat money and would probably be quite valuable.
I have also written numerous times that the centralization of Bitcoin wouldn't necessarily lead to a price collapse. And I was correct about the centralization. I was also correct in 2013 predicting the blocksize as the future problem and a tragedy of the commons in transaction fees (which my whitepaper will make crystal clear is insoluble for Bitcoin). |
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iamnotback (OP)
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January 13, 2017, 01:51:08 PM |
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Shelby, what about POS coins? Don`t you think they are totally immune from government controls?
Expect they are always controlled by a few whales, and thus the authorities can target those whales. Centralization is always the weak point. |
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Gillette
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January 13, 2017, 02:09:05 PM |
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Shelby, what about POS coins? Don`t you think they are totally immune from government controls?
Expect they are always controlled by a few whales, and thus the authorities can target those whales. Centralization is always the weak point. But if this POS coin is based on TOR or I2P? |
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miscreanity
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January 13, 2017, 07:25:40 PM |
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The reserve currency is a narrow phenomenon that has more to do with the dying Industrial Age (see my comments in the Economic Devastation thread for more insights). Bitcoin is serving a purpose in this evolution but it is not the be-all or end-all of this technological transformation. Make sure you read this: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg17458485#msg17458485Would it be possible for Bitcoin to become a global reserve currency at all? I'm assuming competitive collusion among major governments along with addition of control and tracking sufficient to enable AML/KYC for those governments.
The coming SDRs reserve currency will be a compromise by all the nations to fix the coming strong dollar vortex global collapse. That reserve currency is for the Industrial Age economy (the one built with huge fixed capital investment and huge fractional reserve banking leverage). The leftists (collectivists) are enslaving themselves in that dying, but huge albatross monolith. Gold is dying along with that physical economy. We will still have a physical economy, but it will provide no real economic growth and it will become very small in terms of profit relative to the Knowledge Age economy over the coming decades. Bitcoin, blockchains, and altcoins are the decentralization technology of the fledgling Knowledge Age which rises to replace the dying Industrial Age, as a network effect of the decentralized Internet. Bitcoin is the reserve currency of that new nascent economy. The economy and society are bifurcating. I predicted this years ago and have been using that term bifurcation. Ah, I have not had a chance to read all of your writings. If I'm not mistaken, you're saying the marginal cost of production will effectively be reached and there will be insufficient margin or even demand to profit on physical goods. In the sense you describe, it seems that Bitcoin as a reserve will only be a transition. What would the point of a reserve currency be in a Knowledge Age? I'd expect creativity, reputation and work to be indicators of worth instead. Isn't now the exactly such time?
It is indeed  I'm impressed at how well price stuck to the projection channel. Some stops were triggered, but most are still active. If this week closes out within the channel, I'll be adding.  Also of interest: Vatican Called For a “Central World Bank”; Blamed Money Printing for the Financial Crisis |
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thejaytiesto
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January 13, 2017, 07:30:43 PM |
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Well the question is... is people being ow irrationally pessimistic or too cautious? or right now if you buy it will go lower? we can't know.
Also I think the time to get rich with bitcoin is over. I think unless you are holding 3 figure coins you are not getting rich in the next decade or so, that's why im looking at other projects but I dont see anything worth my time and money.
What do you think about Iconomy? can this give us an uber pump? I dont know about the project but the asset itself seems to be performing quite decently compared to the rest out there. At least its not stagnating.
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RAJSALLIN
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January 13, 2017, 07:44:41 PM |
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Well the question is... is people being ow irrationally pessimistic or too cautious? or right now if you buy it will go lower? we can't know.
Also I think the time to get rich with bitcoin is over. I think unless you are holding 3 figure coins you are not getting rich in the next decade or so, that's why im looking at other projects but I dont see anything worth my time and money.
What do you think about Iconomy? can this give us an uber pump? I dont know about the project but the asset itself seems to be performing quite decently compared to the rest out there. At least its not stagnating.
Trying to ger rich fast is the fastest way to the poor house. |
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thejaytiesto
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January 14, 2017, 07:04:43 PM |
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Well the question is... is people being ow irrationally pessimistic or too cautious? or right now if you buy it will go lower? we can't know.
Also I think the time to get rich with bitcoin is over. I think unless you are holding 3 figure coins you are not getting rich in the next decade or so, that's why im looking at other projects but I dont see anything worth my time and money.
What do you think about Iconomy? can this give us an uber pump? I dont know about the project but the asset itself seems to be performing quite decently compared to the rest out there. At least its not stagnating.
Trying to ger rich fast is the fastest way to the poor house. Wrong. The only way to get rich is to get rich quick. If you don't get rich holding the same asset for 3+ years you are doing it wrong, it means you got in too late. It's all about getting in early, buying tons of shares/coins/whatever for a cheap ammont, and selling for retirement tier money. Everything else means you got in too late to make life changing money. Unfortunately bitcoin boat passed unless you want to wait until you are too old to enjoy the money, and all altcoins suck, so we are stuck in this nowhere land. |
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CyberKuro
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January 14, 2017, 11:58:01 PM |
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Bitcoin users has been separated into three sides.
People who don't believe in bitcoin which always support to not invest on bitcoin
Bitcoiners that have faith in bitcoin will be the greatest online currency.
People in the middle, usually act as traders.
Three sides that affected how bitcoin growing, when some sell out will be always believer that hold and buy bitcoin.
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iamnotback (OP)
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January 15, 2017, 07:33:04 PM |
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It may indeed be impossible to ban bitcoin in the long term, but in the short to medium term? It would IMHO be very messy should a major economic player attempt such a thing. Imagine the US gov. shutting down coinbase/bitstamp/etc, even declaring jail time for those that are caught using bitcoin after the ban. Bitcoin investors would panic and most bitcoin holders would make a mad dash for the exit, cratering the price. It would almost certainly end up recovering eventually (as you said it would require a NWO to ban completely), but who knows how long that might take; in the meantime btc wouldn't look so good as store of value even to those not directly affected. I feel a ban from a major nation such as the US or China would not be a negligible event, and I would imagine Armstrong is thinking along those lines. It would be a great opportunity to back up the truck and fill it up with BTC at lower prices, because this would be the US government shooting themselves in the foot. The worst thing a government can do is ban something only to have the population give them the middle finger and it be proven that the government is impotent. From there, Bitcoin would skyrocket in price as it being shown how powerless the government is to ban it. You are too fearful because you are a short-term speculator. Long-term crypto-currency investors understand that this is a paradigm shift for the world and they understand they are going to be very wealthy over the coming decade. Weak hands will be thrown off and end up not being wealthy. Apparently some of you have messaged Armstrong, but he is hard-headed and still doesn't understand that technically it is implausible ban all crypto-currencies regardless if the government wants to: I understand that people say I am wrong about bitcoin or cryptocurrencies. You cannot possibly fight against government. They can say whatever they want and their judges rule in government’s favor. Forget it! You cannot find any possible legal argument that will ever survive.
Can someone please message him and explain to him how dull minded he is on this issue. Explain what I wrote as quoted above about needing to ban every server on the planet. How the hell are governments going to coordinate and then enforce that? Oh course governments can probably regulate the mining farms in China (and they could attack and hardfork with their superior hashrate), but that is why we will have altcoins, in particular the one I am developing which doesn't depend on either proof-of-work nor proof-of-stake. Remind Martin, it is Shelby Moore who is refuting him. He should remember me from email. I am tired of emailing him. He should hear from more of you, instead always myself emailing him. Unfortunately Martin Armstrong continues this false reporting on Bitcoin: Bitcoin has been the escape method for capital fleeing China. China’s major bitcoin exchanges halted or otherwise updated their bitcoin trading services. The changes to bitcoin are being made in response to interactions with the People’s Bank of China. The People’s Bank of China delivered “informal guidance” that is beginning to take notice of the capital flight through bitcoin exchanges. The central bank called in the big exchanges for a discussion.
Bitcoin is not being shut down, but there is concern that the capital flight must be stopped. BTCC is the only exchange to explain the changes in a message posted to its website: “BTCC will [suspend loans and borrowing services] from 12th January, 2017.”
Effectively, loan-based trading services were no longer available using bitcoin.
The truth is that China's regulators are simply trying to reduce excessive volatility by doing some oversight on margin trading. A regional exchange employee wishing to remain anonymous dismissed the news as "no big deal" and unlikely to be motivated by any fears that bitcoin may compete with the yuan.
Another exchange employee, who wished to remain unidentified, expressed dissatisfaction with the reporting, alleging that some of the directives were not in fact new, though he did not provide clarity on which might have been previously given.
“The creation of regulations will more likely benefit the industry than hamper it,” he told CoinDesk. “We are already seeing this happening. BTCC has just announced that they had stopped providing leverage and other exchanges will likely follow suit.” He elaborated on the situation's foreseeable costs and benefits, stating: “We will likely experience a price decline, but bitcoin's volatility will be reduced. Reduced volatility, combined with a stamp of approval from PBoC with regulation, will likely positively contribute to bitcoin's adoption in China and elsewhere.” Zivkovski took a similar view, saying: “In a nutshell, regulating margin trading is a very smart consumer protection policy.” The reduced use of margin should lower the incidence of long and short squeezes, he emphasized, which should reduce volatility. |
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iamnotback (OP)
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January 15, 2017, 07:35:41 PM |
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In the sense you describe, it seems that Bitcoin as a reserve will only be a transition. What would the point of a reserve currency be in a Knowledge Age? I'd expect creativity, reputation and work to be indicators of worth instead.
Agreed. We only need reserve currencies in centralized monetary systems. Bitcoin is the link between the fiat world and the crypto-currency world. In a Knowledge Age, worth is non-fungible. But whilst humans still cling to stored monetary capital, then we will have these legacy systems. |
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iamnotback (OP)
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January 16, 2017, 06:46:37 PM |
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Reading more about the recent actions in China, the government is trying to get exchanges to not market BTC as a capital control subversion method.
This is not necessarily indicative of their ability to shut it down, but rather indicative of trying to minimize the growth of the loophole. It would seem to me that if they could shut it down, they would or wouldn't bother with persuasion on marketing interim until they do. Per my prior posts, I don't think technically they can unless they go for scorched earth by forcing their mining farms to change the protocol (which would just drive an altcoin replacement).
As for margin trading, the Chinese are clever and will find a way around any such regulations.
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bitebits
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Flippin' burgers since 1163.
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January 16, 2017, 07:10:34 PM |
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[...]rather indicative of trying to minimize the growth of the loophole. [...]
Serious question: is there anything different in the US? I am referring for example to the real intention of things like the Bitlicense, IRS invading Coinbase, insane KYC rules on exhanges, imprisoning Charlie Shem of BitInstant because of serving one client that bought bitcoins being sold for usage on Silkroad, etc etc. |
- You can figure out what will happen, not when /Warren Buffett - Pay any Bitcoin address privately with a little help of Monero. |
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iamnotback (OP)
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January 17, 2017, 08:00:31 AM |
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Let China and the IRS suffer the same fate as the Spanish did if they try to play Whack-A-Mole against a decentralized phenomenon: |
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Gillette
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January 17, 2017, 08:13:08 AM |
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Shelby, what about POS coins? Don`t you think they are totally immune from government controls?
Expect they are always controlled by a few whales, and thus the authorities can target those whales. Centralization is always the weak point. But if this POS coin is based on TOR or I2P? So you have no answer to my question? |
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iamnotback (OP)
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January 17, 2017, 09:23:17 AM |
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Shelby, what about POS coins? Don`t you think they are totally immune from government controls?
Expect they are always controlled by a few whales, and thus the authorities can target those whales. Centralization is always the weak point. But if this POS coin is based on TOR or I2P? So you have no answer to my question? Apologies I've been suffering a bad GI infection past few days so my attention span was quite limited. I didn't see your reply. TOR and I2P can be subverted by national security agencies (don't ask me to rehash the details of this as I already had these discussions long ago in the context of Monero and anonymity). Bottom line is that if a government wants to pinpoint an individual, they have the resources to do so. Again I repeat, Centralization is always the weak point.Please read my prior post just above yours. Understand how the pathetic Apaches defeated the mighty Spanish. Also it isn't just that the whales can be targeted by the authorities, but the whales themselves ruin the ecosystem. Only decentralized systems can scale. This is why open source trumps closed source. Who would invest in an ecosystem controlled by individuals. Imagine if the underlying Internet protocols such as TCP/IP were controlled by whales. |
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Fakhoury
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Permabull Bitcoin Investor
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January 17, 2017, 09:37:06 AM |
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Wishing you a full & quick recovery brother, you are so respected and well-mannered man. Want to hear from you about the recent up leg in BTC please |
Feb. 14, 2010: I’m sure that in 20 years there will either be very large transaction volume or no volume.
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iamnotback (OP)
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January 18, 2017, 07:05:05 PM
Last edit: January 20, 2017, 01:09:06 AM by iamnotback |
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Wishing you a full & quick recovery brother, you are so respected and well-mannered man.
Guava young leaf tea (boiled leaves) cures horrendous GI infection when antibiotics (metronidazole + ampicillin weren't working for me this time). My gf and her native relatives say it always works for them. Worked instantly for me. Want to hear from you about the recent up leg in BTC please Already did and those who bought are up $100 or so already: This very high volatility is indicative of shaking the trees of weak hands and stop losses on the way to much higher prices. The $700 cup is still possible though, because the price rise acceleration was extreme and we may not yet be ready to enter the phase transition. Perhaps the global capital controls are not extreme enough yet. Yet I think that accelerated channel may hold up. ... Yet with $700 as the absolute bottom, I would be buying hand and fist with no stop loss above $700 at this point. Although they say don't catch a falling knife, but is this really a crash (exchanges being investigated bullshit rumor to shake the trees?) or just a taking profits -> stop-loss -> piling on short correction? ... Again back to the theme of this thread. Buy when others are irrationally short or pessimistic. We are in a sustained bull market now. All pullbacks are to the bought aggressively. My prior two posts explained why Bitcoin is in a perma bull uptrend now. The early adopter bubble of 2013 is behind us. We are in the massive adoption phase now as the new gold to avoid capital controls. This will provide the impetus for another massive speculation bubble with grandmas piling in later at nosebleed prices ($5000+). Tonight some random 20-something filipina (girl) asked me if Bitcoin is real bcz her friend is trying to sell her Bitcoin. That is a sign that Bitcoin is becoming much more mature! Asian girls selling each other Bitcoin.
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miscreanity
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January 19, 2017, 10:34:33 PM |
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I'm keeping an eye on Ripple. There's a bearish case to be made, but it's nowhere near as strong as the bullish one. From the weekly and daily charts below, it seems that XRP should start moving no later than early March.   Consider that XRP has been effectively flat in USD terms since early 2015 (with what looks like a possible mistaken order in February 2016) while mainly volatile in relation to Bitcoin. The chart formation appears to have bottomed out in BTC and has gained traction with global financial institutions during that time.  I will not be fully comfortable investing a large amount in XRP until the long-term downslope trendline has been breached to the upside, but there does not seem to be much risk in accumulating some quietly between now and then. The trend lines converge in early 2018 so holding will be somewhat long-term. Interestingly, Armstrong is showing that April and May are going to experience increased volatility - right on time for a build in March to catch some attention. Bitcoin seems to be rumbling in that direction as well, so it will be curious to see what happens by mid-year. |
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iamnotback (OP)
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January 20, 2017, 01:08:36 AM |
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Interestingly, Armstrong is showing that April and May are going to experience increased volatility - right on time for a build in March to catch some attention. Bitcoin seems to be rumbling in that direction as well, so it will be curious to see what happens by mid-year. Market uncertainty as to whether Trump can really push through a 15% corporate tax? Maybe by April he has done it? |
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