Speculation Rule: buy when others are irrationally pessimistic or too cautious

[iamnotback]

What about the lightning network?

Answer:

I have an entire section (#8) of my whitepaper dedicated to analyzing and explaining Byteball.

It is an interesting discovery. It has flaws (and not just related to the consensus algorithm). And my design is not Byteball, but there is one aspect which is similar to one aspect of Byteball, yet my design would not work if it was only Byteball.

One of the main flaws of Byteball that you should be aware of besides the messed up transaction fees and distribution, is that the consensus of the blockchain can become entirely stuck if > 50% of the witnesses collude or stop functioning. Then it requires a (political gridlock potentially) hardfork to unstuck the blockchain. Ditto Tendermint, Casper, and all Byzantine agreement variants (that includes DPoS, yet the whales can vote to unstuck it without a hardfork). Note there is a mechanism for voting in new witnesses, but because it requires a total order so it will in practice never work out because total orders don't exist in nature.

Yeah Byteball has something important in it, but it is not really the solution.

Iota has an entire different consensus than Byteball, and it doesn't work without centralized servers. We've already been down that technical debate in the past, so I won't repeat it and get trolled again by Iota shills. Readers can either learn to recognize that I know what I say, or they can suffer the same fate as all the other times I've been doubted.

And no, Bitcoin can't adopt any of these things. Bitcoin isn't ever going to be anything more than what it already is (which is sufficient). Learn to accept that and move on. Lightning Networks is never going to work (decentralized, which is thus the same as saying it is never going to scale up in terms of relevance).

[iamnotback]

The problem that crypto is facing, as compared to penny stock, is that it has no economic function AT ALL.

It has been much more easy for me to take investment from angel investors anonymously via Bitcoin (some was sent with XMR.to and ShapeShift) than I could have achieved with fiat to my bank account in the USA. Also I didn't want to have all my funds stored in that USA bank account, but for example the child support department in Washington State has already more than once gone into that account and stolen funds even if I was only 15 days late on a child support payment. And I figured at any time my ex might get an attorney and somehow garnish the entire account even though I haven't lived with her for 15 years (after she left!) and I don't have any assets whatsoever except my year 2003 model Isuzu SUV which about to die (negative net worth). Btw, my youngest child will be 18 in May, so it isn't like I haven't supported my kids (e.g. spent $8000+ tuition a year in 2004 to send them to Brent Baguio, the best private school in the Philippines).

Note I had closed my bank account in the Philippines because of FATCA. And opening another bank account in the USA wouldn't solve any of the above problems. And I can't easily open another account there since I am not there and haven't been in the USA since 2006.

Bitcoin has an economic function which is to the enable investment in this ecosystem, which is going to end up spawning the WWW of blockchains and cause blockchains to go mainstream, the same as TBL's WWW did for the nascent Internet which had been around for a decade before he invented the WWW.

Don't be so short-sighted and doomsday oriented. It isn't good for your mental health nor your investment decisions.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Even though we are turtle's heading a new ATH it's still a good idea to buy now. Just because we are near a new ATH doesn't mean it's too late.

A new ATH could look like small change in 5 years time.

[miscreanity]

A rushed update, and the charts have gotten a little messy - not much time to clean up.

On the weekly, it can be seen that the top of the bright green channel has been breached but not decisively exceeded yet. If it does continue, there's room above to a little over 1300. I expect the end of this run to stop between the current ~1200 level to the mid-1300s with a potential spike to 1400. We'll see how much momentum there is over the weekend.



Here we can see that the previous high is obviously exceeded and there is now some room for a sensible retracement to alleviate pressure - that's the clear space above the horizontal line of the Gann fan.



Finally, a bullish Gann perspective. Price has been oscillating around the blue Jan 12-31st uptrend projection line. There's a lot of room to jump from here and if a spike of $100-200 in a single day occurs, it would be a good time to wait for a pause and brief decline. Should that occur, I'd wager that sub-$1000 prices will be essentially historical.



This does NOT seem the time to buy, although it won't be the multi-year wait from the previous ATH until buyers are back in black. I'd wait for a peak and decline below $1100.

[manselr]

What is the best way to go from BTC to something else then buy the dip and go back to BTC without having to give all of your details to an exchange? (so without touching fiat)?

I can only see two options:

1) Buying a big volume alt like ETH
2) Buying USDT (good volume in Poloniex)

What do you think?

I would like to gamble about a correction happening with a small amount and buy back in.

[Mahdi0]

If you like to gamble you can do this on bitfinex as well. the usd will just sit there since you need to be verified and give them info to withdraw. but bitfinex has been known to steal your money

[manselr]

If you like to gamble you can do this on bitfinex as well. the usd will just sit there since you need to be verified and give them info to withdraw. but bitfinex has been known to steal your money

Bitfinex allows you to deposit bitcoin without sharing any amounts of data? Well, I guess that would count as another option, but doesn't sound very appealing if you say they are known for stealing your money...


So we got

1) BTC to USDT in Poloniex
2) BTC to fiat in Bitfinex
3) BTC to a big alt

What's your take on this iamnotback? I just would like to know, what would be the best way to go out and back into BTC to try to profit a bit from dips. Sometimes I feel like a gambling a bit. For example I felt like it would correct when it reached $1,200, and wanted to rebuy back at $1,150, but since I dont know the best way to do this, I didnt do nothing.

[manselr]

What is the best way to go from BTC to something else then buy the dip and go back to BTC without having to give all of your details to an exchange? (so without touching fiat)?

I can only see two options:

1) Buying a big volume alt like ETH
2) Buying USDT (good volume in Poloniex)

What do you think?

I would like to gamble about a correction happening with a small amount and buy back in.

For a small amount buying USDT on Poloniex is a better way to do it. It's less volatile and doesn't entail any unnecessary risk. Buying ETH has that risk. We will never know when another DAO-like attack is coming.

Indeed, the problem is you are still exposed to the exchange, with ETH I could be able to hold locally by keeping them in a wallet for a couple of days before I go back to BTC. Im not sure if you can do this with USDT somehow. The more you are exposed to an exchange the better.

[European Central Bank]

A question in relation to the speculation rule. Since others look like they're now irrationally optimistic and a little reckless, is it now time to sell? Now might be a good time to.

what's interesting about the current situation is that optimism and recklessness right now really isn't all that present.

read the wall observer thread in late 2013. the heat back then was about 1 million degrees higher than it is now with talk of loans and the old 'this time it's different' trope.

[cellard]

The uptrend still seems reasonable to me. Let's not forget we hit $1140 on January 4th, so we are now consolidating that price. I expect trading to keep occurring above $1,000 with a resolution depending on what happens with the ETF. If sec approves it we may see a massive pump, if not, then a subtle to moderate dip and accumulation phase continues, hopefully this is the case because im sure we all need to buy more cheap BTC before being able to buy 1 BTC per month becomes a thing of the past.

[miscreanity]

The uptrend still seems reasonable to me.

Yes, next range appears to be $1300-1500. Almost immediately after my last post, price dipped to within $10 of $1100 without going below. If I'd been watching, I would've been buying.

The channel top is at approximately $1213 and the uptrend projection is around $1175. I expect an upward breach to continue and will be buying in that case. If the highs hold at the end of the month, we'll most likely continue rising through March into April.

[cellard]

The uptrend still seems reasonable to me.

Yes, next range appears to be $1300-1500. Almost immediately after my last post, price dipped to within $10 of $1100 without going below. If I'd been watching, I would've been buying.

The channel top is at approximately $1213 and the uptrend projection is around $1175. I expect an upward breach to continue and will be buying in that case. If the highs hold at the end of the month, we'll most likely continue rising through March into April.

We are about to test $1,200 again (bitfinex price). It would be fantastic news to surpass $1250. As far as I can remember, $1250 was the MtGox all time high. It is discussed often if we should or shouldn't count the MtGox ATH as a real ATH, but in my book it will feel good mentally, to know that we went higher than that in a real scenario with a bitcoin that is way more mature, so we finally get rid of the MtGox nightmare.

[manselr]

I think I have decided to try some luck by converting to USDT then buying back. Of course.. the question now arises: When it's a good time to short? and by short I mean selling to then buy back later.. none of that leverage shit, can't deal with that)

Im considering various prices but I always think it will keep growing. I think I can't do this, it's better that I just hold. I don't want to be stuck holding useless USDT.

[iamnotback]

What you guys think about the Bitcoin ETF news coming March 13?

Re: Altcoins coming to their glory in a matter of days!

Bitcoin is not going to do a double-top at its ATH because that is not what technology adoption curves do (see the chart I posted of Amazon's stock in the past). At worst, it will consolidate at $1100 or so, and continue to move higher this year. We've broken out of the "mountain of premature hope" of the first hump of technology adoption curves. These don't breakout to a new ATH and then crash anew. We'd been climbing the "wall of worry" lately due to block scaling concerns, but the fact remains that Bitcoin is crypto-currency and the altcoins are not (yet). Bitcoin is going higher because it is the reserve currency of all the experimentation in blockchains (regardless of Bitcoin's scaling).

We are entering a massive exodus from the Euro and into dollars and other safe havens outside the collapsing economies of Europe due to BREXIT and will accelerate when Le Pen is elected in France in 2 months. This will also drive an increase in speculation in those assets which are ignited by this flood of capital seeking a home.

There three ETFs under consideration, not just the Winklevoss ETF. Also there sentiment is not expecting a certain approval. Approval sends Bitcoin skyrocketing. Disapproval merely causes a minor consolidation.

I am not selling BTC fearing a massive price collapse. Diversifying into best of breed altcoins for more leverage is okay, but this leverage can bite you in both directions.

I personally see BTC consolidation happening at a $900-$1000 range.

It is plausible. I am not trading, so I won't stress over it. Traders may wish to analyze it deeper.

[miscreanity]

What you guys think about the Bitcoin ETF news coming March 13?

Bitcoin is not going to do a double-top at its ATH because that is not what technology adoption curves do (see the chart I posted of Amazon's stock in the past). At worst, it will consolidate at $1100 or so, and continue to move higher this year. We've broken out of the "mountain of premature hope" of the first hump of technology adoption curves. These don't breakout to a new ATH and then crash anew. We'd been climbing the "wall of worry" lately due to block scaling concerns, but the fact remains that Bitcoin is crypto-currency and the altcoins are not (yet). Bitcoin is going higher because it is the reserve currency of all the experimentation in blockchains (regardless of Bitcoin's scaling).

We are entering a massive exodus from the Euro and into dollars and other safe havens outside the collapsing economies of Europe due to BREXIT and will accelerate when Le Pen is elected in France in 2 months. This will also drive an increase in speculation in those assets which are ignited by this flood of capital seeking a home.

There three ETFs under consideration, not just the Winklevoss ETF. Also there sentiment is not expecting a certain approval. Approval sends Bitcoin skyrocketing. Disapproval merely causes a minor consolidation.

I am not selling BTC fearing a massive price collapse. Diversifying into best of breed altcoins for more leverage is okay, but this leverage can bite you in both directions.

I personally see BTC consolidation happening at a $900-$1000 range.

It is plausible. I am not trading, so I won't stress over it. Traders may wish to analyze it deeper.

An ETF would simply add fuel for a short burst. Maybe $2000-2500 to start. After a correction from there, a flood will probably start (likely coming from Asia & Europe) with $6000 as an initial target for late 2017 to 2018.

The chances of BTC going below $1000 are rapidly dwindling. We're currently at the top of the red channel from my prior posts, and if we exceed $1288-1290 for more than a day it's very likely the trend will continue.

Eventually we may have to retest $1000-1100 but that's likely to be short-lived and sometime around Armstrong's call to beware of April. As of now I still see only the beginning of an acceleration in trend. If we hold above $1265, I think it will be more of a pause in trend than a correction. It still seems that $1300-1500 is being reached for. To borrow a term from Armstrong - this may be a phase transition; the rules seem to be shifting.

[Fakhoury]

What you guys think about the Bitcoin ETF news coming March 13?

Bitcoin is not going to do a double-top at its ATH because that is not what technology adoption curves do (see the chart I posted of Amazon's stock in the past). At worst, it will consolidate at $1100 or so, and continue to move higher this year. We've broken out of the "mountain of premature hope" of the first hump of technology adoption curves. These don't breakout to a new ATH and then crash anew. We'd been climbing the "wall of worry" lately due to block scaling concerns, but the fact remains that Bitcoin is crypto-currency and the altcoins are not (yet). Bitcoin is going higher because it is the reserve currency of all the experimentation in blockchains (regardless of Bitcoin's scaling).

We are entering a massive exodus from the Euro and into dollars and other safe havens outside the collapsing economies of Europe due to BREXIT and will accelerate when Le Pen is elected in France in 2 months. This will also drive an increase in speculation in those assets which are ignited by this flood of capital seeking a home.

There three ETFs under consideration, not just the Winklevoss ETF. Also there sentiment is not expecting a certain approval. Approval sends Bitcoin skyrocketing. Disapproval merely causes a minor consolidation.

I am not selling BTC fearing a massive price collapse. Diversifying into best of breed altcoins for more leverage is okay, but this leverage can bite you in both directions.

I personally see BTC consolidation happening at a $900-$1000 range.

It is plausible. I am not trading, so I won't stress over it. Traders may wish to analyze it deeper.

An ETF would simply add fuel for a short burst. Maybe $2000-2500 to start. After a correction from there, a flood will probably start (likely coming from Asia & Europe) with $6000 as an initial target for late 2017 to 2018.

The chances of BTC going below $1000 are rapidly dwindling. We're currently at the top of the red channel from my prior posts, and if we exceed $1288-1290 for more than a day it's very likely the trend will continue.

Eventually we may have to retest $1000-1100 but that's likely to be short-lived and sometime around Armstrong's call to beware of April. As of now I still see only the beginning of an acceleration in trend. If we hold above $1265, I think it will be more of a pause in trend than a correction. It still seems that $1300-1500 is being reached for. To borrow a term from Armstrong - this may be a phase transition; the rules seem to be shifting.

May you elaborate on this please ?

To borrow a term from Armstrong - this may be a phase transition; the rules seem to be shifting.

Thank you

[miscreanity]

May you elaborate on this please ?

To borrow a term from Armstrong - this may be a phase transition; the rules seem to be shifting.

Thank you

Certainly - the best option is to go straight to the source, but in summary:

Water splashes when it flows rapidly into a reservoir, and it also splashes when boiling - two similar effects with drastically different causes. The phase change Armstrong refers to is when markets move in a different manner than what we're accustomed to. Markets behave differently during growth phases and when they mature - even though asset values rise, the reasons and trends may be completely different.

[Fakhoury]

May you elaborate on this please ?

To borrow a term from Armstrong - this may be a phase transition; the rules seem to be shifting.

Thank you

Certainly - the best option is to go straight to the source, but in summary:

Water splashes when it flows rapidly into a reservoir, and it also splashes when boiling - two similar effects with drastically different causes. The phase change Armstrong refers to is when markets move in a different manner than what we're accustomed to. Markets behave differently during growth phases and when they mature - even though asset values rise, the reasons and trends may be completely different.

Thank you for the summary, much apperciated.

I guess what you want to say here is that Bitcoin is evolving from growth phase to a mature phase, am I right ?

If I'm right, could you please describe the new era in numbers ? Like what are you expecting in the coming years, what high numbers do you see is achivable and such ?

Thank you again

[edgar]

quite a  bit of consolidation going on.

[pitham1]

quite a  bit of consolidation going on.

That is a good thing. The maniac upsurges are the ones which result in crashes.
When people get hurt, they tend to avoid bitcoin. Hopefully, that won't happen in the current case.