Speculation Rule: buy when others are irrationally pessimistic or too cautious

[iamnotback]

You only registered in 2016. It is quite easy to make money while bull trend lasts.

Check my signature. I (@AnonyMint) registered in March of 2013.

If you abided by your own advice during bear market, that is in 2013-15, you would go bankrupt. I should know, I did go bankrupt at that time.

I called correctly the decline from $600 to $150. Go check my history. I was also quite upset with my friend @rpietila at $700 for telling people to buy moar. I was flashing red alert signs when BTC crossed $1000. I did make one mistake expecting BTC to make another dive below $100 and so I missed the rise from $150 back to $300. Then I got back on board.

[1715253456]

1715253456

[1715253456]

1715253456

[ImHash]

Actually there shouldn't be any speculation about bitcoin[1] but litecoin though already 50.5M in circulation and even if $1 buck adds to it's price we're talking about a potential of almost $50M one thing I've learned in crypto that either you're too early and as a consequence price is relatively low and mining[2] seems unprofitable or you're too late and that's when price already jumped high people already started to mine and accumulate and difficulty has increased to a point where you can't financially afford it.
What makes you not to buy into LTC/mine it heavily? any coin with a consensus protocol in place like bitcoin should be deemed valuable as much as bitcoin is.
[1]= Bitcoin is all in the open, as you can determine how many coins will be available, as you can determine when and how difficulty will increase, as it was designed to gain more value over time and with the help of community ( if we keep buying and using bitcoin and never stop then more people will join us and if they do the same then BTC will never die, we only need a firm and strong neutral development team).

[2]= Cryptocurrencies, more specifically decentralized coins are to be mined by individuals, I think that's the point of being decentralized.

[iamnotback]

ltc is actually making me emotional recently, its obviously undervalued but not exempt from manipulation.

I am pondering this:

Uh oh:

https://www.reddit.com/r/litecoin/comments/631ffe/pools_that_block_litecoin_development/dfr3weo/

Seems some people might not understand capital, game theory, economics, etc.

I didn't like the conversation. I hope that is not representative of miners believing some BS about going slow on SegWit. The political propaganda on Redditard is thick.

Hopefully the economics of mining overruns lies and nonsense. I think so. Miners are in it for profit and they should be finding every way to maximize their profits.

The BS about faster block period enabling better scaling is a lie. It entirely ignores the equation on orphan rate which related to the ratio between block size and block period. As block period shrinks, block size much shrink proportionally. Thus the current message displayed on this Reddit community is propaganda. And I am also starting to wonder if you are also a political manipulator propagandist.

@dinofelis, I cited our upthread discussion in the Litecoin community. I also explained there that as a PoW coin matures it becomes much more intractable to gain consensus for significant protocol changes. Bitcoin being the dominant reserve could finance the change to the protocol of a lesser chain, if the quorum whales of Bitcoin who have any vested interest have a consensus to do such an attack. So I guess that is a clarification of my upthread claim that only the dominant PoW could be immutable. The lesser PoW chains are less immutable but the immutability game theory is still somewhat favorable.

The generative essence is that politics is a clusterfuck of inaction when it requires agreement on a single action. The only way politics functions is via debt and giving everyone everything at the same time, with no actual consensus. This was Satoshi's clever insight on how to attain immutability.

[iamnotback]

I sold 40% of my LTC at a profit and traded back into ETH which is on significant dip. Again my thesis is Bitcoin is locked into a range below $1150ish (maybe $1200) for the time being so the wave will rotate back to ETH next. Then once ETH gets news such as the Raiden LN clone, then ETH will make a huge jump.

Waiting for more clarity on LTC. The hornet's nest of dissonance and manipulation per my prior post makes me think the rise in LTC may be quite volatile. I'll wait for clarity and potentially a better entry price. If it runs away from me, I still have a significant holding.

[iamnotback]

The BS about faster block period enabling better scaling is a lie. It entirely ignores the equation on orphan rate which related to the ratio between block size and block period. As block period shrinks, block size much shrink proportionally. Thus the current message displayed on this Reddit community is propaganda. And I am also starting to wonder if you are also a political manipulator propagandist.

Lol. They fixed that error fast.

They changed the description of Litecoin on this community Reddit such that it no longer makes the incorrect technological claim.

[iamnotback]

I sold 40% of my LTC at a profit and traded back into ETH which is on significant dip. Again my thesis is Bitcoin is locked into a range below $1150ish (maybe $1200) for the time being so the wave will rotate back to ETH next. Then once ETH gets news such as the Raiden LN clone, then ETH will make a huge jump.

Waiting for more clarity on LTC. The hornet's nest of dissonance and manipulation per my prior post makes me think the rise in LTC may be quite volatile. I'll wait for clarity and potentially a better entry price. If it runs away from me, I still have a significant holding.

Apologies for the noise. I decided to reverse this trade. I see that LTC has a wedge pattern that is rapidly closing so it should breakout to the upside. Also on study of the ETH chart, I don't like the current pattern. Its very difficult to determine at what level the firm support is for ETH.

I need to ignore the discouraging discussion with the redditards and stay focused on the economics of what I had discovered.

That cost me ~$250. Fuck.

Lesson learned. Don't waste time talking to Redditards.

[RAJSALLIN]

I sold 40% of my LTC at a profit and traded back into ETH which is on significant dip. Again my thesis is Bitcoin is locked into a range below $1150ish (maybe $1200) for the time being so the wave will rotate back to ETH next. Then once ETH gets news such as the Raiden LN clone, then ETH will make a huge jump.

Waiting for more clarity on LTC. The hornet's nest of dissonance and manipulation per my prior post makes me think the rise in LTC may be quite volatile. I'll wait for clarity and potentially a better entry price. If it runs away from me, I still have a significant holding.

Apologies for the noise. I decided to reverse this trade. I see that LTC has a wedge pattern that is rapidly closing so it should breakout to the upside. Also on study of the ETH chart, I don't like the current pattern. Its very difficult to determine at what level the firm support is for ETH.

I need to ignore the discouraging discussion with the redditards and stay focused on the economics of what I had discovered.

That cost me ~$250. Fuck.

Lesson learned. Don't waste time talking to Redditards.

Thanks for posting your ideas and trades. Appreciated.

Seems to me LTC is the go to alt for the moment. ETH had it's pump for this time.

Also I can say I've followed Anonymint since 2013 and his price predictions are some of the best here imo.

[Spratan]

I sold 40% of my LTC at a profit and traded back into ETH which is on significant dip. Again my thesis is Bitcoin is locked into a range below $1150ish (maybe $1200) for the time being so the wave will rotate back to ETH next. Then once ETH gets news such as the Raiden LN clone, then ETH will make a huge jump.

Waiting for more clarity on LTC. The hornet's nest of dissonance and manipulation per my prior post makes me think the rise in LTC may be quite volatile. I'll wait for clarity and potentially a better entry price. If it runs away from me, I still have a significant holding.

Apologies for the noise. I decided to reverse this trade. I see that LTC has a wedge pattern that is rapidly closing so it should breakout to the upside. Also on study of the ETH chart, I don't like the current pattern. Its very difficult to determine at what level the firm support is for ETH.

I need to ignore the discouraging discussion with the redditards and stay focused on the economics of what I had discovered.

That cost me ~$250. Fuck.

Lesson learned. Don't waste time talking to Redditards.

I will send you a tip if LTC goes to 50$. I have never invested in LTC before today, after 4 years of trading. Your analyze is convincing.

By the way, why is LTCUSD okcoin futures so low compared to spot and other western exchanges ?
It "laggs" so much that it seems free money at this moment.

[mikenz]

That cost me ~$250. Fuck.

Lesson learned. Don't waste time talking to Redditards.

I know this board for 3+ years now. Everybody is screaming doom&gloom when it goes down and moon when it goes up.

Trade always only according to the hard facts and ignore all the chattering is the first I learned. Cut your losses early the 2nd.

Apologies for the noise. I decided to reverse this trade. I see that LTC has a wedge pattern that is rapidly closing so it should breakout to the upside. Also on study of the ETH chart, I don't like the current pattern. Its very difficult to determine at what level the firm support is for ETH.

I found your posts have high amount of original research and critical thinking. Thank you for posting and please keep us updated. There are not so many quality posts with valuable background infos like yours here.

[NUFCrichard]

I sold 40% of my LTC at a profit and traded back into ETH which is on significant dip. Again my thesis is Bitcoin is locked into a range below $1150ish (maybe $1200) for the time being so the wave will rotate back to ETH next. Then once ETH gets news such as the Raiden LN clone, then ETH will make a huge jump.

Waiting for more clarity on LTC. The hornet's nest of dissonance and manipulation per my prior post makes me think the rise in LTC may be quite volatile. I'll wait for clarity and potentially a better entry price. If it runs away from me, I still have a significant holding.

Apologies for the noise. I decided to reverse this trade. I see that LTC has a wedge pattern that is rapidly closing so it should breakout to the upside. Also on study of the ETH chart, I don't like the current pattern. Its very difficult to determine at what level the firm support is for ETH.

I need to ignore the discouraging discussion with the redditards and stay focused on the economics of what I had discovered.

That cost me ~$250. Fuck.

Lesson learned. Don't waste time talking to Redditards.

Do you have no problem buying into coins that have already risen considerably?  I find that I look at LTC or XPM now and think, that has gone up and could come back down.
The way the market is now, I tend to look for what hasn't gone up recently, buy, wait and then sell.  It is obviously a game of luck, but as basically every coin has been pumped in the last few days, it is working well (primecoin was the last one for me, shame I woke up 2h after the big rise)

I guess my problem is that I am not a fan of any alts. I will happily trade them, but I don't see any true value in them.  Bitcoin on the other hand...

[iamnotback]

Do you have no problem buying into coins that have already risen considerably?  I find that I look at LTC or XPM now and think, that has gone up and could come back down.
The way the market is now, I tend to look for what hasn't gone up recently, buy, wait and then sell.  It is obviously a game of luck, but as basically every coin has been pumped in the last few days, it is working well (primecoin was the last one for me, shame I woke up 2h after the big rise)

I guess my problem is that I am not a fan of any alts. I will happily trade them, but I don't see any true value in them.  Bitcoin on the other hand...

Here is the perspective on how potentially huge this opportunity is:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1851296.msg18425425#msg18425425

Start reading the thread from this point forward:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1663070.msg18421588#msg18421588

[iamnotback]

It is running away from all of you who aren't already on board. Jump on now before it breaks $10. Last chance to board the trainrocket.

[iamnotback]

https://litecoin-foundation.org/2017/04/litecoin-foundation-is-successfully-incorporated/

[iamnotback]

Another bullish wedge forming at $9.50. The pump is underway. Again get on board before breaking $10.

Another tidbit of evidence of my hypothesis:

My asic scrypt miners are on double rent out rates these days, a good sign that there is faith in a price rise.

[WarrEagle]

I sold 40% of my LTC at a profit and traded back into ETH which is on significant dip. Again my thesis is Bitcoin is locked into a range below $1150ish (maybe $1200) for the time being so the wave will rotate back to ETH next. Then once ETH gets news such as the Raiden LN clone, then ETH will make a huge jump.

Waiting for more clarity on LTC. The hornet's nest of dissonance and manipulation per my prior post makes me think the rise in LTC may be quite volatile. I'll wait for clarity and potentially a better entry price. If it runs away from me, I still have a significant holding.

Apologies for the noise. I decided to reverse this trade. I see that LTC has a wedge pattern that is rapidly closing so it should breakout to the upside. Also on study of the ETH chart, I don't like the current pattern. Its very difficult to determine at what level the firm support is for ETH.

I need to ignore the discouraging discussion with the redditards and stay focused on the economics of what I had discovered.

That cost me ~$250. Fuck.

Lesson learned. Don't waste time talking to Redditards.

Good call, I wouldn't try to fight that ETH trend. LTC has my interest too. Since reading about Segwit and the rapid spike in signalling in the blocks. I'm all in and hoping to ride it out.

[willope]

Well I think that having seen what happened with Dash, ripple, Monero, Ethereum... and all the big alts, Litecoin has a lot of potential of going up to 50-100$. Yes, it would be a pump and dump just like the case of Dash. But this is the speculation thread. We are here for profit.
So I think, the actual price is a good entry price.

[iamnotback]

Don't you love this. Got to dump all the weak hands off the rocket before we move past $10. They are taking their 50% profits and running away scared.

Big time gains are for those who have conviction in the hard facts.

The insiders such as BTCC are ostensibly quietly waiting to push this over 75% activation threshold later around the $30 price level so they can send it crazy shooting past $50. Very clever the way they are playing. Why waste that event at such low price levels. Let it build first. Kudos.

Weak hands goodbye losers.

[btcbug]

Putting that aside however and thinking realistically, I don't see banks going anywhere in the short - medium term. As a speculator/investor, I'd like to play both sides so that I win either way or hopefully BOTH at the same time.

Ripple is the tech that banks need to remain somewhat relevant going forward in today's globalized economy.

There is something very strange going on with Ripple. Its features are entirely incompatible with sound banking. So it can't be for banking. Whereas LN on Litecoin will be compatible with sound private fractional reserves in alignment with Nash's ideal money concept (with the failure mode being long-term when Bitcoin becomes controlled by one whale due to concentrating effect of fungible finance).

I wonder if Ripple is a bet on corrupt fiat system finding a way to force all public funds and banks into a system which self-destructs? Some people seem to think Ripple is more compatible with governments and laws?

I really can't find any logic in it at all except that speculators will buy anything that the other dumb speculators will associate progress even though it isn't.

I'd be very wary of holding Ripple as it appears to me to be an extremely volatile greater fool speculation (raping) tool. Ripple is having its 2nd hump adoption (similar chart pattern to LTC).

And I think that is the utility of Ripple. It is way to separate more fools from their capital. So get on board and join the musical chairs raping party. Just pray you get out in time.

I have thrown the question out on XRPChat https://www.xrpchat.com/topic/3551-ripples-fatal-defects-would-like-to-hear-an-expert-rebuttal-please/

Ripple Consensus Ledger (RCL) is not difficult to understand.

- RCL is about trustlines and IOUs
- Every account on RCL can issue an IOU. E.g. I can issue USD.roborovskii or EUR.roborovskii or XAU.roborovskii, basically anything except XRP which is the reserved native token.
- Another person may also issue IOUs, but theirs would be seen as USD.anotherperson, EUR.anotherperson, CNY.anotherperson, etc.
- Note that on RCL you may not see USD.anotherperson, but the actual account address (USD.rxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx)

- Nobody needs to trust anyone blindly. This is where trustlines come in. Trustlines are simply how much you are willing to trust another party holding an IOU for you.
- E.g. You deposit 1000 USD into bitstamp through the usual banking transaction. You NEED to set a trustline to bitstamp on RCL for at least 1000 USD, or bitstamp will not be able to credit 1000 USD.bitstamp to your RCL account.
- Once you do that, bitstamp can then send 1000 USD.bitstamp to you.
- It is a common problem that new users forget (or do not know how) to set the trustlines. They deposit the money, and wonder why they have not yet received it on RCL.

- The main misunderstanding (or ignorance) in that written piece of garbage, is that you could receive anyone's IOU (e.g. USD.scammer). This is not possible if you do not have a trustline setup to trust 'scammer'.
- E.g. If you had the 1000 USD.bitstamp deposited earlier, and you want to pay your friend through RCL 10 USD, you will NOT be able to send him the 10 USD.bitstamp if he does not have a trustline setup to bitstamp.
- Maybe he only has a trustline setup to gatehub. In this case he can ONLY receive USD.gatehub

So this problem of sending your friend USD who has a different trusted gateway; is where the magic of rippling occurs:
- On RCL there are market makers, there would be a currency (or IOU) pair that trades between USD.bitstamp and USD.gatehub.
- Ideally this would be 1:1 being the same currency, but not always. For the following example, let's say it's an ideal 1:1
- When you send your friend 10 USD.bitstamp on RCL, he would receive 10 USD.gatehub through the rippling process that the market makers help to bridge.
- If you had a friend in Japan who only trusted JPY.MrRipple, sending him 10 USD.gatehub would bring out an option for him to receive 1115 JPY.MrRipple.
- This again is bridged by market-makers trading the pair USD.gatehub : JPY.MrRipple

To sum it up, you cannot receive an IOU that you do not have a trustline setup to. What the sender CAN see are the available routes and IOUs that you can receive (that you have existing trustlines with).

The written piece is by someone who is ignorant of how RCL works, and criticizes through his boneheadedness. This is a common trait of "bitcoiners" you see on Polo and elsewhere.

I am following the lead of banks who are testing and backing Ripple. Perhaps it will blow up on them, but that remains to be seen.

[fright]

Don't you love this. Got to dump all the weak hands off the rocket before we move past $10. They are taking their 50% profits and running away scared.

Big time gains are for those who have conviction in the hard facts.

The insiders such as BTCC are ostensibly quietly waiting to push this over 75% activation threshold later around the $30 price level so they can send it crazy shooting past $50. Very clever the way they are playing. Why waste that event at such low price levels. Let it build first. Kudos.

Weak hands goodbye losers.

I wanted to ask you, is now the good time to buy some extra LTC for holding or can we expect a correction soon? Thank you

[iamnotback]

Speaking about reddit, I was checking out the litecoin one and saw this comment:

https://www.reddit.com/r/litecoin/comments/632yau/i_just_rented_some_hash_to_support_segwit/dfr0x1g/

So according to this guy's calculations it would take around $1million "only".

Litecoin will take care of itself. Charlie Lee's brother owns warehouses full of GPUs he can stop mining ETH and mine LTC when they are ready to activate. Bobby Lee of BTCC also has warehouses of Scrypt ASICs mining Litecoin, so he has every profit incentive to do so. Bobby Lee got into mining because of his brother. 'Nuff said.

The economic majority wins. Those who are buying LTC now are doing so because they want SegWit to be activated. Jihian Wu of Bitmain who is blocking SegWit on both LTC and BTC, created the new more efficient Scrypt miners, so I didn't realize this before. They could monopolize these in theory. So this fight might not be as easy as I thought. But the economic majority should win, unless it lacks resolve and/or patience. Already people are arbitraging and finding ways to rent hashrate in order to earn money and support SegWit. If you think the price is going up, you try to lock in a rental price that doesn't increase as the price rises, so you can profit. Others may be buying A4s if they want to maximize profits and believe the price will remain high (and going higher).

Jihan Wu needs to get his ass kicked economically so both Bitcoin and Litecoin can move forward.

It is most likely that BU is a diversionary lie. These miners simply want to gouge high fees on Bitcoin and block any alternatives. They were never going to fork with BU. It was a lie to prevent everyone from joining together to kick Jihan's ass.

If my health will improve or stabilize, my plan is to launch a Bitcoin Killer which doesn't require PoW (the design is already completed). I want to bankrupt all these miners. Their vested interests are a pain in the ass. We need to kick all their arses out into the street and turn their ASICs into door stops. I am talking long-term plan.

Those who are buying ASICs now, my plans are a year or more away from reaching any relevancy or size, so fear not. Buy A4s and profit.

Both you guys are obstructionist wolves in sheepskin. You pretend you want to make progress but you are intentionally stalling. Any one with a brain stem can see right through your deceit.

ProHashing is not signaling SegWit thus they are an obstructionist. Their words are meaningless. In a meritocracy only actions count.

"Talk is cheap, show me the code", wrote Linus Torvalds

Also it is quite clear that BU never intended to fork Bitcoin with that Buggy Unlimited piece-of-shit, because they know damn well the economics of Bitcoin are that the whales can and will destroy any miners who attempt to fork Bitcoin. I explained this in great detail on BCT.

BU is a lie and diversionary tactic in order to fool everyone. The real goal of Jihan Wu is to gouge maximize transaction fees from Bitcoin and block any alternatives for scaling. These obstructionists are blocking progress on both Bitcoin and Litecoin, because Bitcoin depends on Litecoin to add off chain scaling, because the whales of Bitcoin will never allow SegWit on Bitcon. Period. ProHashing by their actions is complicit. Words are meaningless.

Look at your conflicting statements:

He states that we oppose Segregated Witness, which is true. We do not think that SegWit is the best course for bitcoin or litecoin.

We do intend to implement SegWit

A majority of customers have requested SegWit, so we plan to implement it.

Stalling. Deceit. An obstructionist wolf in sheepskin.

the IRS doesn't move its deadline back because of SegWit, and we won't have any business at all if they come after us

Miners should leave such an incompetent company.

Whining in a forum about not being able to do your accounting at the same time you do your technical work.

Of course it is quite clear you are just lying and deceitful.