Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[fonzie]

Could you all please provide an epic bulltrap to 520-550$?

Thanks

Yeah pretty oversold and strong support in 465-480 zone. I'd be surprised if we don't see a test of 518 level. My channel top is at 570 -- don't see that happening.

I´m a bit scared if Huobi really should go into a Gox-like death spiral, that there will be only downs and no bounces and waves which make crash tradin real profitable.
Just like it looks on the Huobi 1h chart.  

[JayJuanGee]

It's that moment where you're terrified you're going to lose it all.

aka "The time to buy more"

This. Always this. Some people never learn.

No no no, its going to $10, the mighty prophets of the temple of economics have given us their word on this, $10 spring 2014.

What ever happened to 10k by spring lol

Maybe the 10K prediction will have to wait a little bit, until either Spring 2015 or Spring 2016 or possibly Spring 2017 or lastly, possibly some other convenient time that will work out a lil better.  Spring 2014, is nearing its end point, so 10k does NOT seem likely in the next week or even the next month.

[tarmi]

Could you all please provide an epic bulltrap to 520-550$?

Thanks

I dont think so. we already had 2~3 really epic bull traps.

many dollars burnt.

[TeeBone]

puh for a second I thought my short at 474 would get squeezed

I'll see where this goes now from the sidelines

You shorted at $474? Are you fckin nuts?

Same was said to those who shorted at 1000, 800 and 600. 10K by spring yadda yadda. No one should be listening to bulltards right now.

The point is that you don't sell DURING the crash, when a bounce could happen at any time. You sell BEFORE the crash right after a bulltrap when there is low volume and everything is fizzling out and all the indicators are going down.

How do you know the crash has begun and this aint just a warmup ?

[edwardspitz]

Panik, I have a plane to catch very soon

[JayJuanGee]

Its 2 AM. I got my popcorn with me, but I must say, I am experiencing a certain level of fear.

Sadly, I can't buy moar, my fiat is running out.

Same here.... that's what I keep saying when guys say that they would buy a shitload of BTC if the price went to $100 per BTC... the problem is I would NOT have any money left by the time it got that low.

[TERA]

puh for a second I thought my short at 474 would get squeezed

I'll see where this goes now from the sidelines

You shorted at $474? Are you fckin nuts?

Same was said to those who shorted at 1000, 800 and 600. 10K by spring yadda yadda. No one should be listening to bulltards right now.

The point is that you don't sell DURING the crash, when a bounce could happen at any time. You sell BEFORE the crash right after a bulltrap when there is low volume and everything is fizzling out and all the indicators are going down.

How do you know the crash has begun and this aint just a warmup ?

I don't. In that case, I lose out on a good short. But it doesn't matter. You're discussing speculating on something that might happen and has a lot of risk. That's not the way I trade. I only trade when I have a good setup and I'm 80% sure that I'm going to win, and have a strategy to control risk. So I just ignore the trading opportunity and wait for another one. For example I'll at least wait for some kind of large spike (bulltrap) and then I'll short that. I'll then be prepared to cover this short very quickly if I feel that it is not a bulltrap but more of a longer-term recovery.

I guess you'e in a different situation though in which you're currently long. Maybe you're too heavily invested in btc now and you're forced to make a trade or else you feel like you are losing all of your capital.  It sucks to be in that situation. One should not have been long like that to begin with every single MACD on every scale on bitcoinwisdom was down.

[JorgeStolfi]

If you didn't like my bullish 70 USD prediction, here are two bearish ones:

These predictions assume that the ban will only undo the effect of the last rally of Mar/03 and get the price back to the previous trend that has held since Jan/19, apart from a detour in late january.   A possible justification for that trend would be gradual cash-out and exit of traders from the market, due to losses or other reasons, not compensated by the recruitment of new investors.

The black lines assume that the trend is either linear (by now at 2350 CNY) or decaying exponential (2600 CNY).

Of course, in either case, if the trend persists Bitcoin will be dead before the end of the year.  So you probably prefer the 70 USD prediction. 

[seleme]

Its 2 AM. I got my popcorn with me, but I must say, I am experiencing a certain level of fear.

Sadly, I can't buy moar, my fiat is running out.

Same here.... that's what I keep saying when guys say that they would buy a shitload of BTC if the price went to $100 per BTC... the problem is I would NOT have any money left by the time it got that low.

That's why it is good to day trade during downtrends. If you catch some bounces, you have similar amount of the money all the way down. I manage to do that so far since ATH and actually gained 300-400% but lot of that were some very profitable non btc vs usd trades though.

[vleroybrown]

When will a seriously innovative alt(s) completely decouple from this downward trend in btc pricing.  I imagine the first one with the best chance of doing so is listed on the the major exchanges that offer central fiat to alts.  Short list includes Ripple on Bitstamp & Kraken, Litecoin on Bitfinex & Kraken etc., some chance of the Vault of Satoshi and Kraken alt markets breaking out including Doge, which has done more trending uncoupled to Bitcoin than any other alt so far, is there anything else I'm missing with a offical collapse of the Chinese buying support?  And how much chance do you give for this to happen at each price level lower for bitcoin 300s, 200s, 100s.. 2 digits?

[MAbtc]

puh for a second I thought my short at 474 would get squeezed

I'll see where this goes now from the sidelines

You shorted at $474? Are you fckin nuts?

Same was said to those who shorted at 1000, 800 and 600. 10K by spring yadda yadda. No one should be listening to bulltards right now.

The point is that you don't sell DURING the crash, when a bounce could happen at any time. You sell BEFORE the crash right after a bulltrap when there is low volume and everything is fizzling out and all the indicators are going down.

How do you know the crash has begun and this aint just a warmup ?

I think that this is likely. But the point remains. One should be trying to short the reversal, not short into sustained selling. Same principle as "buy the crash, sell the rally."

[seleme]

When will a seriously innovative alt(s) completely decouple from this downward trend in btc pricing.  I imagine the first one with the best chance of doing so is listed on the the major exchanges that offer central fiat to alts.  Short list includes Ripple on Bitstamp & Kraken, Litecoin on Bitfinex & Kraken etc., some chance of the Vault of Satoshi and Kraken alt markets breaking out including Doge, which has done more trending uncoupled to Bitcoin than any other alt so far, is there anything else I'm missing with a offical collapse of the Chinese buying support?  And how much chance do you give for this to happen at each price level lower for bitcoin 300s, 200s, 100s.. 2 digits?

it's shit new trend since November, I liked it much more when alts would go up during Bitcoin crashes. It was fantastic hedge opportunity.

[fonzie]

A good bull-trap actually functions like a Ponzi, the first ones that get in will be rewarded when they leave at the right time.  

Edit: 1h chart actually looks like a waterfall

[boumalo]

The price is going down, when it goes down like that and in a negative environnement you feel it can go down very low

It will probably rebounce aggressively soon, let's get some fiat to the exchanges

We have a few technical levels that should resist, let's see

[JayJuanGee]

My predictions from yesterday were kinda not good as I see...

Instead of go up, price went down ... ~35$ ...

And no money to buy cheap coins! such sad.

I am definitely running out of Fiat reserves, too. 

UNEXPECTANTLY - In the past three weeks, I have been buying BTC since about $610, and i did NOT expect BTC prices to go lower than $610.  I have continued to expect BTC prices to go up... but I have bought about 6 BTC between $486 and $610.  If I had known (BIG IF), I would have saved my fiat and bought them all at $486... then I could have probably gotten 7 BTC for about the same price that I paid for the 6 BTC.

Maybe you can sell now and buy back when it's 50$ lower or you just patiently hold and wait like everyone else

I bet a lot of people are getting fiat to the exchanges to buy "cheap" coins..

I'm too afraid to sell any more than .2BTC at a time.  Almost any time that I begin to attempt to profit from trading or to sell larger quantities of BTC expecting to trade and to profit from that, I get left in the dust. 

Trading BTC does NOT seem to be my forte...

Unless there is some kind of extremely negative news, I have resolved NOT to sell any BTC until I am getting closer to being in the black.  Currently my BTC buy-in price is about $670... so BTC has a way to go UP before I am back in the black.

[TeeBone]

puh for a second I thought my short at 474 would get squeezed

I'll see where this goes now from the sidelines

You shorted at $474? Are you fckin nuts?

Same was said to those who shorted at 1000, 800 and 600. 10K by spring yadda yadda. No one should be listening to bulltards right now.

The point is that you don't sell DURING the crash, when a bounce could happen at any time. You sell BEFORE the crash right after a bulltrap when there is low volume and everything is fizzling out and all the indicators are going down.

How do you know the crash has begun and this aint just a warmup ?

I think that this is likely. But the point remains. One should be trying to short the reversal, not short into sustained selling. Same principle as "buy the crash, sell the rally."

Point taken, but if you expect a big drop at some point, missing out on small bounces isnt that big a deal. Most of my bids are in the 200's and 300's. Maybe his are too.

[arepo]

A good bull-trap actually functions like a Ponzi, the first ones that get in will be rewarded when they leave at the right time.  

Edit: 1h chart actually looks like a waterfall

this is how all trading works it's identical to a game where there are two rooms, A and B, and players move from one, to the hallway in between, to the other. each player's reward is proportional to the number of people who enter room A after him, minus the number of people who leave room A before him, as well as the number of people who enter room B after him, minus the number of people who leave room B before him.

imagine actually playing that game. seems silly, doesn't it? that's what we're doing here, all of us!

--arepo

[fonzie]

Stamp/Finex ask side is almost complete empty.
1688BTC to 550$
I expect a nice green candle!

[MAbtc]

puh for a second I thought my short at 474 would get squeezed

I'll see where this goes now from the sidelines

You shorted at $474? Are you fckin nuts?

Same was said to those who shorted at 1000, 800 and 600. 10K by spring yadda yadda. No one should be listening to bulltards right now.

The point is that you don't sell DURING the crash, when a bounce could happen at any time. You sell BEFORE the crash right after a bulltrap when there is low volume and everything is fizzling out and all the indicators are going down.

How do you know the crash has begun and this aint just a warmup ?

I think that this is likely. But the point remains. One should be trying to short the reversal, not short into sustained selling. Same principle as "buy the crash, sell the rally."

Point taken, but if you expect a big drop at some point, missing out on small bounces isnt that big a deal. Most of my bids are in the 200's and 300's. Maybe his are too.

I don't know what size positions you play with. Mine are large enough that a $10 move is painful. A $50 move is damn near heart attack mode.

On a move from 535 > 466, shorting 470s is playing with fire. As long as you aren't one of these people that sells as soon as they are whipsawed, you're fine. But I know what it's like to sit on a short $5k in the red, anxiously waiting for it to play out, and it ain't pretty. I take lengths to avoid that sort of pain, and I'm willing to sacrifice some profit to do it.

[fonzie]

A good bull-trap actually functions like a Ponzi, the first ones that get in will be rewarded when they leave at the right time.  

Edit: 1h chart actually looks like a waterfall

this is how all trading works it's identical to a game where there are two rooms, A and B, and players move from one, to the hallway in between, to the other. each player's reward is proportional to the number of people who enter room A after him, minus the number of people who leave room A before him, as well as the number of people who enter room B after him, minus the number of people who enter room B before him.

imagine actually playing that game. seems silly, doesn't it? that's what we're doing here, all of us!

--arepo

you´re right But if the trend will not be reversed at any time in the future, there are some people left who will not only be not rewarded, but also lose money