Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JorgeStolfi]

Jorge seems like a good guy.  I think the only thing that is frustrating to some of us is why he doesn't want to "join the fun" so to speak and just pick up a coin or two.   [... ] That said, I honestly wish he would buy a coin.  I wish everyone I know would.  Not for selfish reasons, but out of a sincere and altruistic desire for them to have something invested in one of the greatest opportunities that may come up in our lifetime.   

Thanks, I appreciate that. 

As for getting a coin, I would rather not invest in bitcoin, but will use it for payments if I find it is better than the alternatives.  Would that do?

[Taras]

Down we go everyone
Time to figure out how to buy at this low price

[Davyd05]

I mean hey when there are no rallies are in sight, what can we do but short and or sell now an buy back on the bounce...tis but a phase that takes place in the cycle of bitcoin

oh yeah hodl like me

[billyjoeallen]

They officially denied a rumor a week earlier. I'm sure they think they have better things to do than deny every rumor that comes along. They had time to confirm on Frday also and they didn't do that.

Maybe but note that that this 'rumour' was in Chinese news, and also that rumour-spreading online is illegal in China. You wouldn't expect them to deny every online rumour by Tom Dick & Harry but when it's published in the news there is much more reason to consider making a statement, no?

I expect they will likely make a statement one way or the other this Monday or Tuesday. The market is down because of uncertainty. A confirmation may even paradoxically cause the market to go up once the uncertainty is removed. It took a while, but that's what happened when Silk Road got busted.

Just keep in mind that these rumors have been going around for four months. Gox rumors turned out to be true, so this might also. It's a real possibility, just less likely than the market has priced in, in my opinion.

[silverfuture]

squeezing for all it's worth.... the question is...will i give up my stake in bitcoin?
Nope. it is worth so much more. I am the patient
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CuLy9shJNYc
.

[BitcoinAwesomeMan]

squeezing for all it's worth.... the question is...will i give up my stake in bitcoin?
Nope. it is worth so much more. I am the patient
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CuLy9shJNYc
.

Buy on fear. Always. Bought as much as I could

[ChrisML]

Bought in at $420 and I bought some a few weeks back at $700.

I am just hodling. I could have call it a quit a few days back when the price was around $640. But I didnt.

hodl.

[JayJuanGee]

Whatever else is true, I think most people consider that anyone resorting to threats in any argument instantly loses any shred of credibility they had remaining.

I would agree with that, but to be fair, Jorge was being taunted like a nerd set upon by a pack of schoolyard bullies.  No matter how reasonable and well-socialized and mature you may be, that sort of thing can elicit rash behaviour.  It's not an environment of rational, respectful argument.  It wasn't even worth the label "argument".   

I've spoken rashly here under less oppressive circumstances than that.

Well yeah I get that... and I do sympathise.  But it's not exactly his first day at the Internet.

Furthermore I appear to be included in the threat target group and I really don't think I'm guilty of conducting a concerted effort to direct any vitriol towards him - certainly never anything of a personal nature.  I've just expressed my increasing disappointment and frustration about his rather disingenuous 'technique', which is to present an agenda-driven opinion as if it were based on facts and objective research - not to mention consistently and consciously recycling already debunked arguments.

I too would prefer that all the people he antagonises would show some respect and civility - but throwing your toys out of the pram and threatening to 'teach people a serious and unforgettable lesson with just a few keystrokes' sounds like something an angry teenage script kiddy might say; not an academic of his years and experience.

The cultists picking on Jorge again while forgetting a significant fact.

Jorge is Jorge, one of the few with the balls to front up on his identity here, a fact that is regularly used against him.  It seems bizarre that he can be accused of being insincere by people who hide behind pseudonyms.

As regards 'civility'...I've yet to see Jorge be uncivil to anyone here, while he is regularly subject to personal abuse. 

Jorge seems like a good guy.  I think the only thing that is frustrating to some of us is why he doesn't want to "join the fun" so to speak and just pick up a coin or two.   I suppose the frustrations of those that do not feel that he is "part of the team" is what can come out in antagonistic ways.  We should appreciate his honesty and his contribution to the board in that he brings different viewpoints here.

That said, I honestly wish he would buy a coin.  I wish everyone I know would.  Not for selfish reasons, but out of a sincere and altruistic desire for them to have something invested in one of the greatest opportunities that may come up in our lifetime.   

He does NOT have to buy a whole BTC.  He can buy .1BTC or some other convenient amount in order that he can experience the process of buying and maybe trading and transferring, etc. etc.  If you are gonna be a scholar on any subject, you should gain some experiences withing.. especially both the eases and the frustrations of such.  Actually, it may give Jorge more to bitch about (and to educate us in that regard) when he figure out that it can be fairly technically difficult to accomplish certain kinds of bitcoin related tasks.... and that in other regards, it can be very easy and smooth to accomplish other tasks.

[billyjoeallen]

A weekend dip to 480 by Saturday night, not even seriously testing $466 resistance. We are on the way back up. An official denial of the rumor by the PBoC (should that happen) should take us to $540 in the short run, close to $600 eventually provided no new disasters surface. 

I estimate this China ban is 90% priced in since rumors started four months ago, so even if it turns out to be true, the down side is much smaller than the potential upside if again it proves to be false. This is a good time to buy a small amount, IMHO.

Probability the story is fake or just plain wrong I estimate to be 51%, based on no confirmations yet by anybody, despite a market plunge and four days of looking.

Once again, I was too early. We were all expecting this test of support, so my gut was right and my second guess was wrong. There may even be a test of $400 support if $466 doesn't hold.

Now we get to see who's smarter than me and waited to buy.

[ShroomsKit]

squeezing for all it's worth.... the question is...will i give up my stake in bitcoin?
Nope. it is worth so much more. I am the patient
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CuLy9shJNYc
.

Buy on fear. Always. Bought as much as I could

So you've been buying non stop the last few months? How much did you lose?

[Davyd05]

squeezing for all it's worth.... the question is...will i give up my stake in bitcoin?
Nope. it is worth so much more. I am the patient
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CuLy9shJNYc
.

Buy on fear. Always. Bought as much as I could

So you've been buying non stop the last few months? How much did you lose?

its only temporarily at a loss .. unless you wuss out and realize the loss and sodl

[Tyson95]

A weekend dip to 480 by Saturday night, not even seriously testing $466 resistance. We are on the way back up. An official denial of the rumor by the PBoC (should that happen) should take us to $540 in the short run, close to $600 eventually provided no new disasters surface. 

I estimate this China ban is 90% priced in since rumors started four months ago, so even if it turns out to be true, the down side is much smaller than the potential upside if again it proves to be false. This is a good time to buy a small amount, IMHO.

Probability the story is fake or just plain wrong I estimate to be 51%, based on no confirmations yet by anybody, despite a market plunge and four days of looking.

Once again, I was too early. We were all expecting this test of support, so my gut was right and my second guess was wrong. There may even be a test of $400 support if $466 doesn't hold.

Now we get to see who's smarter than me and waited to buy.

Hang in there man, I got fiat on the way so the price should skyrocket.

[ShroomsKit]

squeezing for all it's worth.... the question is...will i give up my stake in bitcoin?
Nope. it is worth so much more. I am the patient
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CuLy9shJNYc
.

Buy on fear. Always. Bought as much as I could

So you've been buying non stop the last few months? How much did you lose?

its only temporarily at a loss .. unless you wuss out and realize the loss and sodl

There is no guarantee it will go back up again.

[BBmodBB]

Explanation

ok $250 support--//^$3000 target on rumoured run by May-June ...am i reading the tea leaves right?

[silverfuture]

squeezing for all it's worth.... the question is...will i give up my stake in bitcoin?
Nope. it is worth so much more. I am the patient
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CuLy9shJNYc
.

Buy on fear. Always. Bought as much as I could

So you've been buying non stop the last few months? How much did you lose?

hundreds of thousands since the top. but I am 100% bitcoin for a long time. Since the beginning I am still up. Glad to see the point of entry is getting affordable lately for newcomers.

[JayJuanGee]

[ ... ]

It is not a "threat in an argument"; it has nothing to do with bitcoin, it is about attacking my person instead of my posts.

Why would I try to hide the fact that I delivered an apt and well deserved lesson to someone?

Well, 'delivering a lesson' is clearly a euphemism.

I can only speak for myself and you know that I'm not attacking you personally.

I have simply been asking you to try to be more objective and to endeavour not to mislead people.  Otherwise you are guilty of almost the very same 'crime' that you accuse these mysterious Bitcoin 'salesmen' of committing.

I'm sorry if you feel that this particular line of argument is ad hominem but if you are persistently selective about the arguments that you either ignore or respond to and if you consistently try to rehash dead issues in an effort to reinforce your own worldview - well, that's just not the same position that you're claiming to take.  It is an intellectually dishonest technique - at the very least it is certainly perceived as such.  I suspect that's what antagonises people so much.  Ad hominem is pretty much the only option they have left - not that I consider it to be a particularly honourable or even appropriate option.

So in the meantime you will continue to find that people either ignore your contributions and/or treat you with disdain, which is a very great shame because they would otherwise be most welcome.  

And I'm afraid that some people will always take things personally and direct insults towards you but that there is life on the Interweb.  I speak from experience here - I've suffered much worse unwanted forum attentions without resorting to threats.

I, and I'm sure many of the other grown-ups here, would be immensely grateful if you just took a moment to thoroughly challenge yourself and see that your position is just as you claim it to be.

We do want you here Jorge - well I certainly do.  But sometimes you make it damn hard to take you seriously.  

I can assure you that any ad hominem attacks directed at you would be treated with immense disdain, by both those who agree and disagree, if people felt that you were approaching things in a truly scientific, objective and/or academic way, which after all is the banner under which you are standing.

I mean no disrespect whatsoever and could not be more sincere.  And in that spirit I shall endeavour to refrain from commenting on your posts from now on.  Feel free to reciprocate the goodwill intended.

Very well said KFR... though I think you were being too nice.... if that is possible.. b/c I have been getting very frustrated with the intellectual dishonest technique tactic that sometimes is subtle and can trick people in their thinking.. and b/c I have the sense that Jorge is a smart guy, I am inclined to think that he is employing this technique on purpose.. and without adequate disclaimers...  which causes me to want to be less polite in my criticisms.

Also, I find it problematic if you are providing assurances NOT to comment on his posts.. maybe that could be your overall practice; however, sometimes it is necessary for  people to really call others on their misleading posts rather than saying that you will abstain... .. anyhow, in the end, you need to decide what makes you comfortable.

[Davyd05]

squeezing for all it's worth.... the question is...will i give up my stake in bitcoin?
Nope. it is worth so much more. I am the patient
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CuLy9shJNYc
.

Buy on fear. Always. Bought as much as I could

So you've been buying non stop the last few months? How much did you lose?

its only temporarily at a loss .. unless you wuss out and realize the loss and sodl

There is no guarantee it will go back up again.

there is none but I highly doubt less people are going to find out about it than more at this point.

[T.Stuart]

hundreds of thousands since the top. but I am 100% bitcoin for a long time. Since the beginning I am still up. Glad to see the point of entry is getting affordable lately for newcomers.

Does anyone else get the impression that overall, investors in Bitcoin put more into Bitcoin vs their entire portfolio than those invested elsewhere? Ie that the "all eggs in one basket" attitude is more prevalent in Bitcoin.

If so what effect does this have on price?

[JayJuanGee]

. Lots of money was lost there, putting people permanently out of the game. Gox was one of the major, if not the major propellant upwards. With that money out of the game and not supporting the high price anymore, the price is set to go a lot lower than 500.

Permanently out of the game means dead.  I don't think they died.
Gox victims have a lot of btc to buy if they hope to recover. 

Yeah, that's how people think..."hhmmm...I lost a load of money on BTC...I have no money left...I'd better work harder to buy MORE BTC".

C'mon...

Hey.... that is what i have been doing.. more or less...  It is called dollar cost averaging and I do NOT believe that i am crazy.. b/c it is an investment strategy.. have you heard of it?  It is a pretty solid investment strategy when predicting that an asset is going to go back up in value.  I began investing in BTC at $1200.  And, BTC prices have been declining ever since.  I have been buying BTC when the prices gets lower.

Yes, you are probably behaving rationally under your assumptions, to a high degree -- whether you are correct or incorrect about your price trajectory assumptions is another question.  But I think  creekbore's point remains:  Mass psychology is somewhat less rational, more brutish and reactive.  "Once burned, twice shy" is an apt aphorism describing his inferred assumptions about market behaviour.

Personally, I believe that you are giving Creekbore too much benefit of the doubt.   But to each his own....  To me, Creekbore seems to be engaging in broad generalizations that may have some truth to them, but largely he seems to be denigrating others for being stupider than he is. 

Damned with faint praise (I think).
Anyway, I don't claim to be smarter (or more stupid) than the next man.

But the fact is lots of people lost money (cash or coins) on Gox...the fallout from that has been huge not just in publicity but word of mouth also.  I'd suggest most of the money lost on Gox was not 'cultist coins' but Mr Average spending some investment money via what they'd read/seen in the media.  They've lost that money now and they won't be coming back for a long time I suspect.  Public confidence in a market/investment drops...it takes time to rebuild...time is the one thing 'new' BTCers don't have....everyone wants to double their money in a week.  Those who say through 2012 know different.

If you have a different hypothesis, I'd love to read it.

I am not denigrating those people (indeed I fully understand their attitude).  What I have trouble with is the idea they are going to rapidly reinvest in BTC (and lets recall most here castigated these people for using Gox in the first place).

I have NO meaningful assessment to broadly categorize conduct b/c I am of the sense that there is going to be considerable variance regarding how people behave and how much knowledge they have and whether they act on their knowledge.  Some people are really dumb and/or act on their emotions, and some people are lucky or unlucky.

 Many people chose NOT to invest in Gox after about mid-2013 b/c there seemed to be fishy practices at GOX, and others took their money out of GOX.. .and still others purposefully went to Gox for various reasons, including some who wanted to go and to get into GOX during the last week of its being opened for business b/c they though that it woudl be a great opportunity to pick up some BTC around $100.  As we found out in retrospect, those who either knowingly or unknowingly took risks with GOX are likely going to have lost a certain percentage (possibly) all of their GOX BTC portfolio.

NO matter what happens with GOX investors, there will be variation with what these many investors do in the future.  Some will jump back into BTC, and others will be scared off of BTC.  Probably you recognize some of this variance in how investors will respond... but you make your statements in such a way to fail to account for such variations... which end up coming across as denigrations on a broad level... which may have some truth to it, but does NOT apply to everyone in the category.. and may NOT even apply to many in the category b/c the category or the referent has been left vague.

[fotosonics]

This is just freaky.

Critical mass of FUD. Critical mass of weekend awareness levels. Critical mass of fear.

All that and more intersecting, as the clock runs out on Chinese reactions and volume.

Freaky, dark world it is now for bitcoin hodlers like myself. Slow, murky, foreboding descent.