Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Biro Bob]

I'd prefer a log-pumposaurus

It would be too flat, like a crocodile.

A linear giraffosaurus!

[1714302220]

1714302220

[hmmmstrange]

Jorge retains some fantasy illusion that his posts affect the behavior of some marginal newbies

Rua Santa Ifigênia is the traditional "electronics street" of São Paulo, some 5-10 blocks with tiny to medium-sized shops selling from transistors to consumer electronics, with sidewalks lined with street merchant stalls selling all sorts of accessories, cartridges, software, etc.. A large part of it is contraband, pirated, or counterfeit (you can surely find a "legitimate" copy of Photoshop or Autocad there for a few bucks). Once in a while the police raids the place, confiscates a couple of tons of merchandise, gves out fines and maybe some arrests, just to justify their salaries; but that is all "priced in" as you might say.

Some 10-15 years ago a Ph.D. student of mine bought for her project a Sony camera that had a CD burner built-in and recorded images directly on small 3" CD-Rs.  (There was a short time window when that camera made sense, because flash memory cards had about the same capacity as those CD-Rs but were much more expensive.) She was running out of the original supply of CD-Rs, and could not find then in Campinas; so one day we happened to be in São Paulo we thought of checking at Sta. Ifigiênia.

When you buy anything in Brazil the store is supposed to give you a "fiscal note", an official serially numbered receipt, of which they keep a copy.  Those receipts are used by tax auditors to check whether the state sales tax is being paid.  Obviously street merchants and  stores selling contraband don't give no friggin' fiscal notes, especially for a small purchase like a box of blank CDs; but since we were paying with federal grant money we needed the fiscal notes, and moreover we had to pay with a check from the government account.  We had to walk the whole street, asking at half a dozen computer supply shops, until we found a store that had those 3" CD-Rs, accepted the check, and gave us a fiscal note.

While we were walking back, people started shouting "tax inspectors, tax inspectors" all over the place.  In ten minutes (no exaggeration) half the small shops in the entire street closed their doors, and all the sidewalk stalls had been hastily folded and thrown into vans that disappeared from view.   For, you see, they had spotted two odd-looking people entering random shops and asking to buy some trinket with a fiscal note -- what else could they be?

So: don't underestimate.

Just think how many children went hungry after your shopping spree

Just think how many children went hungry because Jorge's government stole the money from the public that was used to purchase the CD's and the camera and pay Jorge's salary, in the first place.

[aminorex]

I am rather sceptical about this. Not because it's a bad model overall, but because I suspect the amount of fiat coming in does not correlate well to adoption. Namely, over-represented speculators must have vastly over-pumped the market, so it's hard to tell where we 'should' be at this point.

PQ=MV, M=k*n^2, n~r*exp(t)+f

Cheapness is near historical maxima.  That's all you really need to know, if you think BTC is technically and politically evolvable to serve as, e.g. SDRs, with probability > 0.001%.

I had intended to be levering up about now, but in the event I decided to keep it down to about 80%, so that I can short stock markets (and bull-ride the faster-cycling bubble waves on MRO, with the small amount suited to its embryonic liquidity state) while we wait for the party to start rocking.  At the dogleg I will lever up, if I'm functioning.  Less than 80% sacrifices too much, takes too much risk, for my present taste.

[aminorex]

It would be too flat fiat, like a crocodile.

True: Fiat is like a carnivorous reptilian holdover from the cretaceous which lies submerged in pools of liquidity waiting for a hapless gazelle to get thirsty.

[Argwai96]

Seems we have flattened here at 490-495, kinda thought we might dip and make a nice flag. Dont really know what to think. Any thoughts on where were going from here? (besides the proverbial moon)

[JimboToronto]

Seems we have flattened here at 490-495, kinda thought we might dip and make a nice flag. Dont really know what to think. Any thoughts on where were going from here? (besides the proverbial moon)

Just catching our breath after a big day. I'm surprised it didn't slip further.

[Adrian-x]

Seems we have flattened here at 490-495, kinda thought we might dip and make a nice flag. Dont really know what to think. Any thoughts on where were going from here? (besides the proverbial moon)

A couple of houses just sold for BTC, (converted to fiat for the owners at market) I've seen large purchase through pay merchants like BitPay bring downward pressure on price as those coins work through the dark pools.

I'm still confused, I don't think the trigger on the next bull run has been pulled.

I think the bull run will be triggered by a redistribution of new coins evident in a rapid increase in difficult.

[Cassius]

I am rather sceptical about this. Not because it's a bad model overall, but because I suspect the amount of fiat coming in does not correlate well to adoption. Namely, over-represented speculators must have vastly over-pumped the market, so it's hard to tell where we 'should' be at this point.

PQ=MV, M=k*n^2, n~r*exp(t)+f

Cheapness is near historical maxima.  That's all you really need to know, if you think BTC is technically and politically evolvable to serve as, e.g. SDRs, with probability > 0.001%.

I had intended to be levering up about now, but in the event I decided to keep it down to about 80%, so that I can short stock markets (and bull-ride the faster-cycling bubble waves on MRO, with the small amount suited to its embryonic liquidity state) while we wait for the party to start rocking.  At the dogleg I will lever up, if I'm functioning.  Less than 80% sacrifices too much, takes too much risk, for my present taste.

I've no doubt that impressive growth is possible. But I'm slightly cautious of equating speculators' with regular punters' money. It could easily be an order of magnitude bigger.
But there's no arguing with people who use that kind of language.
(Perhaps you could clarify the terms - I assume M = market cap, n = number of adopters, k is your constant?)

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChrisML]

Seems we have flattened here at 490-495, kinda thought we might dip and make a nice flag. Dont really know what to think. Any thoughts on where were going from here? (besides the proverbial moon)

Just catching our breath after a big day. I'm surprised it didn't slip further.

This.

I thought we would settle down at +-$475 before going into a rally in a few days. It's hodling pretty nice up there.

[Walsoraj]

6 billion market cap + 11 million bid sum on Stamp = lol.

Stop over complicating things.

[oda.krell]

Seems we have flattened here at 490-495, kinda thought we might dip and make a nice flag. Dont really know what to think. Any thoughts on where were going from here? (besides the proverbial moon)

Just catching our breath after a big day. I'm surprised it didn't slip further.

This.

I thought we would settle down at +-$475 before going into a rally in a few days. It's hodling pretty nice up there.

Same though here. ~470 is something I really expected (and still could happen). Back to 450, without bouncing up, and I'd start worrying that it was a pump&dump after all.

[derpinheimer]

I sure hope the next jump is coming soon; looks like it could be in the next hour or so

[Spaceman_Spiff]

Seems we have flattened here at 490-495, kinda thought we might dip and make a nice flag. Dont really know what to think. Any thoughts on where were going from here? (besides the proverbial moon)

Just catching our breath after a big day. I'm surprised it didn't slip further.

This.

I thought we would settle down at +-$475 before going into a rally in a few days. It's hodling pretty nice up there.

Yeah, looks like it wants to go to $550 for now.

[ErisDiscordia]

So it appears Peter Schiff has finally wrapped his mind around Bitcoin:

http://blog.europacmetals.com/2014/05/euro-pacific-precious-metals-now-accepts-bitcoin/

[rezurect]

http://advivo.com.br/blog/jorge-stolfi/cuidado-com-bitcoin

[ChrisML]

So it appears Peter Schiff has finally wrapped his mind around Bitcoin:

http://blog.europacmetals.com/2014/05/euro-pacific-precious-metals-now-accepts-bitcoin/

2 da moon pics, anyone?

[wasserman99]

Seems we have flattened here at 490-495, kinda thought we might dip and make a nice flag. Dont really know what to think. Any thoughts on where were going from here? (besides the proverbial moon)

Just catching our breath after a big day. I'm surprised it didn't slip further.

This.

I thought we would settle down at +-$475 before going into a rally in a few days. It's hodling pretty nice up there.

Same though here. ~470 is something I really expected (and still could happen). Back to 450, without bouncing up, and I'd start worrying that it was a pump&dump after all.

I'm still kind of thinkin it was a pump and dump. But that doesnt mean we cant get one more leg up! A nice dip from 500 could have been a nice bull flag though and a nice place to get a leveraged long in!

[Cassius]

http://advivo.com.br/blog/jorge-stolfi/cuidado-com-bitcoin

Meh. Not impressed.

[ShameOnYou]

Not a pump and dump. Its a dump and pump!!! Dont get caught in the bear trap yall, it aint good for your health.