Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[fonzie]

Bye bye Bitstamp & friends

http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2014/05/20/more-bad-news-for-bitcoin/

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304422704579570132275301414?mg=reno64-wsj&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB10001424052702304422704579570132275301414.html

It’s not yet clear which exchanges are being investigated in the new push, the Wall Street Journal reported Monday evening, but many exchanges including the Tokyo-based Mt. Gox have already received subpoenas.

“One of the people familiar with the matter said the investigation was at an early stage,” the Journal reported, “and conclusions hadn’t been reached as to whether the exchanges were connected with Silk Road.”


I´m pretty sure Bitstamp was one of them!
Cash out as long as you can! Don´t get stamped!
I´m pretty sure they will find a way to reach BTC-E too.
Funds will get frozen... years will go by. Dreams of crypto richness will be gone.
Amen

[1714311504]

1714311504

[1714311504]

1714311504

[N12]

The more contact points a trendline has, the more meaningful it is. There's no reason to go for a version that follows the price less closely over the same period.

Yours is arbitrary because it uses all candle wicks but one for the trendline. Either you do it by closes, or you do it by high/lows, not both.

Actually, not sure if that's a 'hard rule' of trendlines.

Anyway, the triangle looks fine to me. Broke out upwards. Don't know what porcupine's problem is with it... I think he just doubts that TA could ever dominate fundamentals, news, sentiment, etc.

If there is an actual glitch in the exchange data or it is due to some form of illiquidity (then again, you don't chart illiquid exchanges), then that's ok, but it's a bad idea to assume you can say which is valid and invalid, which is to be included and which ignored. It's the same thing with news, you don't have a framework of judging that, so might as well draw some dinosaurs.

I really don't think I know this as a 'hard rule'. Can you find me a quote on it?

The way I understand it, there are two ways to go about trendlines, in the most general sense: 1) not allowing any violation (in which case, only candle extrema are possible points of contact), 2) minimizing the no. of violations and only allowing candles that /closed/ above the trendline.

In the latter case, you can mix up extrema and closing points of candles. But like I said, I can be corrected on this.

http://www.babypips.com/school/elementary/support-and-resistance-levels/trend-lines.html

And most importantly, DO NOT EVER draw trend lines by forcing them to fit the market. If they do not fit right, then that trend line isn’t a valid one!

I suppose that can be interpreted such. I never read it anywhere, but it's my experience and it's the same way I approach all other things in technical analysis. If you start cherry picking, the only thing that will happen is for your bias to dominate the analysis. If you already know what is meaningful and what is meaningless, then you probably have no need for trendlines in the first place. The point is that once you judge the validity of data itself, then you have (except in special circumstances) departed from the realm of analysis and entered the realm of wishful thinking. You should take the data as is. But if it worked for you in the past, who am I to judge you?

The other things I'd say about trendlines aside from contact points and consistency is, like many other things, disregard all that is short term, because almost all of it is noise.

Bye bye Bitstamp & friends

http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2014/05/20/more-bad-news-for-bitcoin/

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304422704579570132275301414?mg=reno64-wsj&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB10001424052702304422704579570132275301414.html

It’s not yet clear which exchanges are being investigated in the new push, the Wall Street Journal reported Monday evening, but many exchanges including the Tokyo-based Mt. Gox have already received subpoenas.

“One of the people familiar with the matter said the investigation was at an early stage,” the Journal reported, “and conclusions hadn’t been reached as to whether the exchanges were connected with Silk Road.”


I´m pretty sure Bitstamp was one of them!
Cash out as long as you can! Don´t get stamped!
I´m pretty sure they will find a way to reach BTC-E too.

Holy shit. Time to buy and get your BTC off exchange.

[Bronstad]

.... don't quote the troll

[N12]

Would someone post the WSJ text please? Thanks.

[spooderman]

"No one buys the triple digit lie any more" - Blitz.

I just love this quote.

[fonzie]

Would someone post the WSJ text please? Thanks.

Could someone post this WSJ text too please.
"The Power of Negative Thinking
Both ancient philosophy and modern psychology suggest that darker thoughts can make us happier"
There is a link on the article about the Bitcoin investigation.
Coincidence??  

[oda.krell]

The more contact points a trendline has, the more meaningful it is. There's no reason to go for a version that follows the price less closely over the same period.

Yours is arbitrary because it uses all candle wicks but one for the trendline. Either you do it by closes, or you do it by high/lows, not both.

Actually, not sure if that's a 'hard rule' of trendlines.

Anyway, the triangle looks fine to me. Broke out upwards. Don't know what porcupine's problem is with it... I think he just doubts that TA could ever dominate fundamentals, news, sentiment, etc.

If there is an actual glitch in the exchange data or it is due to some form of illiquidity (then again, you don't chart illiquid exchanges), then that's ok, but it's a bad idea to assume you can say which is valid and invalid, which is to be included and which ignored. It's the same thing with news, you don't have a framework of judging that, so might as well draw some dinosaurs.

I really don't think I know this as a 'hard rule'. Can you find me a quote on it?

The way I understand it, there are two ways to go about trendlines, in the most general sense: 1) not allowing any violation (in which case, only candle extrema are possible points of contact), 2) minimizing the no. of violations and only allowing candles that /closed/ above the trendline.

In the latter case, you can mix up extrema and closing points of candles. But like I said, I can be corrected on this.

http://www.babypips.com/school/elementary/support-and-resistance-levels/trend-lines.html

And most importantly, DO NOT EVER draw trend lines by forcing them to fit the market. If they do not fit right, then that trend line isn’t a valid one!

I suppose that can be interpreted such. I never read it anywhere, but it's my experience and it's the same way I approach all other things in technical analysis. If you start cherry picking, the only thing that will happen is for your bias to dominate the analysis. If you already know what is meaningful and what is meaningless, then you probably have no need for trendlines in the first place. The point is that once you judge the validity of data itself, then you have (except in special circumstances) departed from the realm of analysis and entered the realm of wishful thinking. You should take the data as is. But if it worked for you in the past, who am I to judge you?

The other things I'd say about trendlines aside from contact points and consistency is, like many other things, disregard all that is short term, because almost all of it is noise.

Yeah, I added an EDIT later, making it clear that I don't claim you should declare candles "outliers" and ignore them (unless for technical reasons).

The idea runs down to the following principle, I guess: a violation of a trendline through candle extrema is overall less significant than a violation through a close above/below it.

Whether that is empirically motivated or not, is a good question.

[aminorex]

Monero receives some intense pumping in here 

I'd like to see it replace BTC.  BTC creates too much exposure, lost privacy.

[podyx]

So, should I take out my bitcoins of bitstamp?

[Walsoraj]

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304422704579570132275301414

U.S. authorities have opened a new front in their investigation into bitcoin exchanges and other businesses that deal in the online currency, examining possible ties between the firms and the online drug bazaar Silk Road, according to people familiar with the matter.

The new focus of the investigation is the latest indication of how the shuttered online drug market has become linked to bitcoin, tainting the currency with associations of shady activity as its advocates stress to regulators its legitimacy. It comes after prosecutors in January criminally charged the owner of one bitcoin exchange over alleged ties to Silk Road.

One of the people familiar with the matter said the investigation was at an early stage, and conclusions hadn't been reached as to whether the exchanges were connected with Silk Road.

Several bitcoin exchanges received subpoenas from Manhattan federal prosecutors this winter, including Tokyo-based Mt. Gox, once the world's most popular bitcoin exchange, according to people familiar with the matter. It wasn't clear which other bitcoin businesses have received subpoenas.

The subpoenas to Mt. Gox demanded customer-transaction logs and materials related to solicitation of investors. But prosecutors and Federal Bureau of Investigation agents also are examining whether the exchange and others like it may have processed transactions connected to Silk Road, the people said. Attorneys for Mt. Gox didn't respond to requests for comment.

Timeline: Bitcoin's Evolution
View Graphics
 
REUTERS
Mt. Gox suspended trading on Feb. 25 and announced the disappearance of 850,000 bitcoins—about 7% of the world's total—worth more than $470 million at the time. The exchange filed for Chapter 15 bankruptcy protection in Texas in March in a bid to stop customers from targeting the cash it holds in U.S. bank accounts.

Mt. Gox's demise amplified authorities' concerns about the stability of bitcoin, which isn't backed by any central bank.

The shadow of Silk Road, where users could anonymously purchase everything from narcotics to forged passports, long has hung over bitcoin, the only form of currency Silk Road accepted.

Exchanging other currencies into bitcoin with the knowledge that the funds would be used for illegal transactions could violate money-laundering laws. Even without such direct knowledge, financial institutions are required under U.S. bank regulations to maintain robust internal controls to prevent money laundering by customers.

Prosecutors shut down Silk Road last year and charged its alleged founder, Ross Ulbricht, with several counts of conspiracy and other charges. He has pleaded not guilty and denied being Silk Road's founder. A trial is scheduled for November in federal court in Manhattan. A lawyer for Mr. Ulbricht declined this week to comment.

Charles Shrem, a bitcoin evangelist and businessman, was criminally charged in January with money laundering at his company, BitInstant, which like Mt. Gox swapped dollars for bitcoin and collected a fee on the transactions.

Prosecutors alleged he conspired to help customers of Silk Road convert dollars into bitcoin to use on the market.

Emails Mr. Shrem sent furthered suspicions about connections his company may have had with Silk Road, a person briefed on the investigation said.

In an email to an unnamed person in April 2012, cited in court documents filed by prosecutors, Mr. Shrem said that "[Silk Road] funds a decent percentage of the overall Bitcoin economy."

In a February 2012 email cited by prosecutors, Mr. Shrem wrote "wow, Silk Road actually works," explaining he had just received a shipment of marijuana brownies.

Mr. Shrem and his alleged accomplice pleaded not guilty last month in federal court in Manhattan. A trial is scheduled for September.

"He's cooperated with law-enforcement agencies in the past, and he looks forward to getting this case behind him," said Marc Agnifilo, a lawyer for Mr. Shrem.

Today's rally may have been triggered by criminals withdrawing coins before their accounts get frozen.

[N12]

Thanks Walsoraj, you're the only one I can rely on.

[bitcoinsrus]

So, should I take out my bitcoins of bitstamp?

Did you just have it there to day trade or as a wallet?  Why would you want to take it out?

[N12]

In a February 2012 email cited by prosecutors, Mr. Shrem wrote "wow, Silk Road actually works," explaining he had just received a shipment of marijuana brownies.

This won't ever get any less hilarious.

[podyx]

So, should I take out my bitcoins of bitstamp?

Did you just have it there to day trade or as a wallet?  Why would you want to take it out?

Kinda have it like a wallet now but will trade with them in the future

[hdbuck]

waaaaaa  

The service allows consumers to pay in bitcoin from any mobile device with SMS functionality via a ‘gateway’ in the user’s country of origin.

Anyone wanting a 37Coins wallet can set one up at the company’s website, but, for people lacking web access and/or smartphone, a hosted wallet is automatically created once a small amount of bitcoin is sent to their cellphone number.

The service acts virally and once, say, Alice has bitcoin in her new wallet, she can send funds on to Bob – thus creating a wallet for him, and so on.

The reason 37Coins sees SMS as the best way to reach the most people, is that almost everyone now has access to a cellphone. According to the International Telecommunications Union, cellphone penetration will reach 95.5% globally by the end of 2014 – far higher than the roughly 40% of people using the Internet globally.

...

-> http://www.coindesk.com/37coins-plans-worldwide-bitcoin-access-sms-based-wallet/

[spooderman]

So, everyone takes their btc off the exchanges suddenly?

wow
so price increase.

Will fiat be withdrawn to the same extent? Less so? More so?

[fonzie]

Will China shutdown before Bitstamp/BTC-E/Coinbase/Localbitcoins get freezed?
Sub 100$ incoming???

[bitcoinsrus]

So, should I take out my bitcoins of bitstamp?

Did you just have it there to day trade or as a wallet?  Why would you want to take it out?

Kinda have it like a wallet now but will trade with them in the future

If it is a lot, you might want to be careful by securing your bitstamp account (that recent localbitcoin attack affected even those with 2factor authentication).    Trading is always good, just safeguard yourself.  

[podyx]

Anyone know if the bitstamp thingis real and should we be worried?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation