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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26386542 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
empowering
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August 03, 2014, 04:42:03 PM


Check out all the jewelry and the broach Kurzweil is wearing, they are all DMLS 3D printed from shapeays.


Cool site.
arklan
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August 03, 2014, 04:46:08 PM

http://online.wsj.com/articles/portugal-mulls-banco-espirito-santo-recapitalization-1407078624?mod=WSJ_LatestHeadlines

in other news....
Huge timebombs just waiting to go off in more than one place atm...
How long can they plug the leaks?
How long until this is systemic?
Longer than any of us think.
Hmmm... you would hope so...  but I rather think that is still sooner than some think...to some degree the wheels are already in motion... just waiting for the chips to fall...
Can only kick that can down the road for so long...
Portugal
Italy
Greece
Spain
(and others in the Eurozone)
Are all in the shit.
So are Bulgaria
So are Argentina
and they are just the ones on the brink of the next wave of shit..
There are other even bigger problems brewing away underneath in several other places... (not to mention the US (and others) still seem to be on a debt suicide mission, with zero sign of changing course)
This cannot help long term confidence in the bond market.. there is already pressue on the bond markets in more ways than one..  one new big problem could lead to contagion and bingo it is systemic before you can say Bear Stearns.
Coupled with the QE scenarios , either QE to infinity nor tapering look that attractive
There is only so long that the can , can be kicked down the road... they are barely in control now... what happens if when fate throws a curve ball into the mix?

Sunday Thoughts:
The 'system' is essentially chaotic and too complex to not have an infinite number of 'curve balls' coming at it - all the time.   It is also fragile.
However most of the power in the world has no interest in a huge systemic collapse, so in the short term it is unlikely to happen.
In the long term, you're right it cannot survive as it stands. Therefore it adapts, or catastrophically fails.
Currently it is a holed ship with each of the seamen being relied upon to patch the holes next to them, and if necessary calling for help from others from time to time.
However, it is not robust enough to survive the circumstances of an extreme storm and storms do (and will) hit from time to time.
Sure, Bitcoin will survive - but at the moment it still interfaces with fiat money systems (people buy and sell it with fiat) and works with existing ways of exchanging goods and services as a 'alternative and better' transfer of value system.   It does still need to grow alongside the system, though.  
In a total catastrophic collapse of the financial system, Bitcoin may not be ready to help.  However, if the ship sinks slowly and parts of it fail enough to reduce confidence in fiat money, but not all fail, this will be the ideal scenario (for Bitcoin).
We just need patience.   The ship is getting more and more holes - but we do not want it sinking entirely with all the sailors drowning, as we would go down with it.

my full agreement. bitcoin lead to my eyes opening to see all this. the global system can't sustain itself indefinitely. honestly i doubt it's got 50 years left before catastrophic failure becomes inevitable, what with all the chaos from things like the ukraine and gaza going on to shock it. sadly, i don't think there's much we can do to prevent it. it's sorta automated from the perspective of the common man. i just pray it DOES adapt, and thus slowly transition to a better world, rather then basically entering into an apocalyptic scenario.

though perhaps i'm a bit of a pessimist. Cheesy
arklan
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August 03, 2014, 04:47:57 PM


Check out all the jewelry and the broach Kurzweil is wearing, they are all DMLS 3D printed from shapeways.


Cool site.

i actually have a shop on there. i can make pretty much whatever. my current favorite is the bitcoin themed cardholder i use as my wallet. been using it for a year now without any problems. https://www.shapeways.com/model/892826/bitcoin-themed-card-holder-wallet.html?li=my-models&materialId=6
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August 03, 2014, 04:49:56 PM

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August 03, 2014, 04:52:24 PM

http://online.wsj.com/articles/portugal-mulls-banco-espirito-santo-recapitalization-1407078624?mod=WSJ_LatestHeadlines

in other news....

Huge timebombs just waiting to go off in more than one place atm...

How long can they plug the leaks?

How long until this is systemic?

it's basically all about protecting france.

This.  Because France is the weak link in the backbone of Europe.  But how can you protect a vertebra which is dissolving with cancer?

Europe needs a titanium France.

empowering
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August 03, 2014, 04:53:48 PM

http://online.wsj.com/articles/portugal-mulls-banco-espirito-santo-recapitalization-1407078624?mod=WSJ_LatestHeadlines

in other news....
Huge timebombs just waiting to go off in more than one place atm...
How long can they plug the leaks?
How long until this is systemic?
Longer than any of us think.
Hmmm... you would hope so...  but I rather think that is still sooner than some think...to some degree the wheels are already in motion... just waiting for the chips to fall...
Can only kick that can down the road for so long...
Portugal
Italy
Greece
Spain
(and others in the Eurozone)
Are all in the shit.
So are Bulgaria
So are Argentina
and they are just the ones on the brink of the next wave of shit..
There are other even bigger problems brewing away underneath in several other places... (not to mention the US (and others) still seem to be on a debt suicide mission, with zero sign of changing course)
This cannot help long term confidence in the bond market.. there is already pressue on the bond markets in more ways than one..  one new big problem could lead to contagion and bingo it is systemic before you can say Bear Stearns.
Coupled with the QE scenarios , either QE to infinity nor tapering look that attractive
There is only so long that the can , can be kicked down the road... they are barely in control now... what happens if when fate throws a curve ball into the mix?

Sunday Thoughts:
The 'system' is essentially chaotic and too complex to not have an infinite number of 'curve balls' coming at it - all the time.   It is also fragile.
However most of the power in the world has no interest in a huge systemic collapse, so in the short term it is unlikely to happen.
In the long term, you're right it cannot survive as it stands. Therefore it adapts, or catastrophically fails.
Currently it is a holed ship with each of the seamen being relied upon to patch the holes next to them, and if necessary calling for help from others from time to time.
However, it is not robust enough to survive the circumstances of an extreme storm and storms do (and will) hit from time to time.
Sure, Bitcoin will survive - but at the moment it still interfaces with fiat money systems (people buy and sell it with fiat) and works with existing ways of exchanging goods and services as a 'alternative and better' transfer of value system.   It does still need to grow alongside the system, though.  
In a total catastrophic collapse of the financial system, Bitcoin may not be ready to help.  However, if the ship sinks slowly and parts of it fail enough to reduce confidence in fiat money, but not all fail, this will be the ideal scenario (for Bitcoin).
We just need patience.   The ship is getting more and more holes - but we do not want it sinking entirely with all the sailors drowning, as we would go down with it.

my full agreement. bitcoin lead to my eyes opening to see all this. the global system can't sustain itself indefinitely. honestly i doubt it's got 50 years left before catastrophic failure becomes inevitable, what with all the chaos from things like the ukraine and gaza going on to shock it. sadly, i don't think there's much we can do to prevent it. it's sorta automated from the perspective of the common man. i just pray it DOES adapt, and thus slowly transition to a better world, rather then basically entering into an apocalyptic scenario.

though perhaps i'm a bit of a pessimist. Cheesy

Then again... if you look at the world Kurzweil is positing... then ... maybe all this changes a lot faster, and plays out a lot different to how we are expecting.. like I posted yesterday... the world is going to change more in the next 25 (ish) years than it has in the past 100 ...
that is the flipside..
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August 03, 2014, 04:56:22 PM

it is 603 on cex.io
empowering
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August 03, 2014, 04:57:40 PM

http://online.wsj.com/articles/portugal-mulls-banco-espirito-santo-recapitalization-1407078624?mod=WSJ_LatestHeadlines

in other news....

Huge timebombs just waiting to go off in more than one place atm...

How long can they plug the leaks?

How long until this is systemic?

it's basically all about protecting france.

This.  Because France is the weak link in the backbone of Europe.  But how can you protect a vertebra which is dissolving with cancer?

Europe needs a titanium France.



House of cards.
ChartBuddy
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August 03, 2014, 04:59:53 PM


Explanation
JorgeStolfi
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August 03, 2014, 05:04:06 PM

Taking all factors (political, financial, rationality, greed, etc.) into consideration, I predict BTC will hit a high of $950 in 2015 and settle at about $750.
I predict your prediction to be wrong.
I predict that yours may be right or may be wrong.
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August 03, 2014, 05:06:44 PM

Taking all factors (political, financial, rationality, greed, etc.) into consideration, I predict BTC will hit a high of $950 in 2015 and settle at about $750.
I predict your prediction to be wrong.
I predict that yours may be right or may be wrong.

I predict that your prediction concerning my prediciton will be correct, as will mine concerning Moria843s prediciton.

esse83
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August 03, 2014, 05:19:37 PM

Good news, it would only take the entire bid side canceling their bids and doing a market buy to get us back to ~680  Cool Looking bullish. Whooping $7.7mill on bidside at stamp (19.86k btc).
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August 03, 2014, 05:20:28 PM

http://youtu.be/d-_DuWWPvKg  
Published on 22 Oct 2013
VERY Interesting interview with R Kurzweil .. also there is a brief bit about Bitcoin and there is some discussion of decentralisation. [ ... ]
Anyone watch the video?
It was fun seeing him squirm and dodge while the interviewer tried (twice) to press him into endorsing bitcoin. 8-)

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August 03, 2014, 05:23:38 PM

http://youtu.be/afLH5MBtHLM

Modern way....

Hopefully we can keep the riots off for a long as possible  Wink
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August 03, 2014, 05:24:04 PM

http://youtu.be/d-_DuWWPvKg  
Published on 22 Oct 2013
VERY Interesting interview with R Kurzweil .. also there is a brief bit about Bitcoin and there is some discussion of decentralisation. [ ... ]
Anyone watch the video?
It was fun seeing him squirm and dodge while the interviewer tried (twice) to press him into endorsing bitcoin. 8-)



Indeed.. but also the least interesting part of the video.
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August 03, 2014, 05:33:35 PM

http://youtu.be/d-_DuWWPvKg  
Published on 22 Oct 2013
VERY Interesting interview with R Kurzweil .. also there is a brief bit about Bitcoin and there is some discussion of decentralisation. [ ... ]
Anyone watch the video?
It was fun seeing him squirm and dodge while the interviewer tried (twice) to press him into endorsing bitcoin. 8-)
Indeed.. but also the least interesting part of the video.
I predict that by 2030 malnutrition will be a major public health problem among the patrons of all-senses-covered virtual restaurants.  Cheesy

(Something like that was described in an old book by Stanislaw Lem, /The Futrological Congress/.  By the way, that is where the Wachowski stole the red pill / blue pill idea from.)
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August 03, 2014, 05:36:52 PM

http://youtu.be/d-_DuWWPvKg  
Published on 22 Oct 2013
VERY Interesting interview with R Kurzweil .. also there is a brief bit about Bitcoin and there is some discussion of decentralisation. [ ... ]
Anyone watch the video?
It was fun seeing him squirm and dodge while the interviewer tried (twice) to press him into endorsing bitcoin. 8-)
Indeed.. but also the least interesting part of the video.
I predict that by 2030 malnutrition will be a major public health problem among the patrons of all-senses-covered virtual restaurants.  Cheesy

(Something like that described in an old book by Stanislaw Lem, /The Futrological Congress/.  By the way, that is where the Wachowski stole the red pill / blue pill idea from.)

Indeed... there is a lot of work out there on similar topics... but you do not even need to go into the future.. in Taiwan I hear they have huge problems and in S Korea.. I already heard one story of a lady who was in virtual world for 23 hours a day , malnourished herself and had a dead baby in her apartment as she had not fed the baby... though the babies she had in her virtual world , were looked after...




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August 03, 2014, 05:59:53 PM


Explanation
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August 03, 2014, 06:01:45 PM

http://online.wsj.com/articles/portugal-mulls-banco-espirito-santo-recapitalization-1407078624?mod=WSJ_LatestHeadlines

in other news....

Huge timebombs just waiting to go off in more than one place atm...

How long can they plug the leaks?

How long until this is systemic?

it's basically all about protecting france.

How long will the Germans play? and by play I mean Pay.


imho "germans paying" is a myth. the german economy is one of the biggest beneficiaries of the euro crisis (as of the globalization, as of the creation of the euro itself) the german government pays historical low interest rates for bonds, the strong engineering industry can export record highs due to the weak euro, german companies never had more funds than right now.

this success story though looks totally different when looking at german taxpayers or german employees: they did not get anything of all this riches, on the contrary there haven't been so many poor germans since the 40ies or 50ies
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August 03, 2014, 06:08:30 PM

http://online.wsj.com/articles/portugal-mulls-banco-espirito-santo-recapitalization-1407078624?mod=WSJ_LatestHeadlines

in other news....

Huge timebombs just waiting to go off in more than one place atm...

How long can they plug the leaks?

How long until this is systemic?

it's basically all about protecting france.

How long will the Germans play? and by play I mean Pay.


imho "germans paying" is a myth. the german economy is one of the biggest beneficiaries of the euro crisis (as of the globalization, as of the creation of the euro itself) the german government pays historical low interest rates for bonds, the strong engineering industry can export record highs due to the weak euro, german companies never had more funds than right now.

this success story though looks totally different when looking at german taxpayers or german employees: they did not get anything of all this riches, on the contrary there haven't been so many poor germans since the 40ies or 50ies

Ah.. yes there is that.. my point was more about how I do not think they are overjoyed at the prospect of continuing to bail out Europe ... or coming to the rescue of France or the PIGS... indeed I believe they legislated against doing so...  It seems they feel they have little in common with the "southern europeans". Sure I can see they have the motivation to try to keep it all a float at the moment... but those tax payers you speak of.. they are starting to get pretty pissed from what I can understand..... anyway country like Germany... no need to worry... they have never..

ah.

 Grin

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