Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[1714623097]

1714623097

[1714623097]

1714623097

[1714623097]

1714623097

[touhonoob]

https://i.imgur.com/tFyUBEY.jpg

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[shmadz]

Hey Stolfi, I would appreciate your opinion on the second half of this interview.
(It's about Ebola and related DNA type research)

https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/letstalkbitcoin/podcasts/LTB158.mp3

The good stuff starts at 32:00

All comments are of course welcome, but I am especially interested in the thoughts of an academic regarding the corruption of incentives within the academic community.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[samsonn25]

On the brightside the price of btc currently $326

is up 162% from $201 last November.

[downtosimple]

...and yet difficulty is up and the number of transactions is at its highest.

I think only when difficulty turns down, there is a chance for a new buble. Why? Because that means miners will be having no profit, and those who are shorting can not buy enough BTC under exchange to close their shorts.

Whales are shorting,  but they have to buy it back to close their shorts. Where do they buy? they can't buy it back on the exchanges, as that in many cases would drive prices even higher than shorting level. I guess they cover from miners under the exchanges, at a so called market price that shorting whales actually made.

Only when miners have no profit and are unwilling to mine and to sell , the whales can not short anymore. A new bubble will start.  So, only  when difficulty trend turns down, the game will be over.

[Searing]

Just a 'back in time' break here to the beginning of this thread when bitcoin was a whopping $67.43 according to the chart on the first post

april 16th 2013

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.0

man would that be a bummer if that turns out to be the 'mean' on the bitcoin bubble this last year! heh puckered a few people up with that comment

anyway a lot of zooming about up down etc since then

[samsonn25]

Downtosimple:

Dont understand your logic.

But miners already run at a loss.

The price is currently low because there is more selling than buying.

Sellers sell because they think price will go down in future, thats why they dont want to hold.  

Gamblers who buy are thinking the price will go up in the future, as of now more people think price will go down rather than trend up.

[BitChick]

Just a 'back in time' break here to the beginning of this thread when bitcoin was a whopping $67.43 according to the chart on the first post

april 16th 2013

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.0

man would that be a bummer if that turns out to be the 'mean' on the bitcoin bubble this last year! heh puckered a few people up with that comment

anyway a lot of zooming about up down etc since then

Sometimes when it is really late and I am way too tired I open this thread and don't realize for a second that I am on the first page and I freak out at the $69 price for a second.    I guess the $350 price doesn't look too bad in comparison.

[downtosimple]

Downtosimple:

Dont understand your logic.

But miners already run at a loss.

The price is currently low because there is more selling than buying.

Sellers sell because they think price will go down in future, thats why they dont want to hold.  

Gamblers who buy are thinking the price will go up in the future, as of now more people think price will go down rather than trend up.

How do we know miners are running at a loss while difficulty is up up and up? In my mind, the pure cost is only electricity, the others could be regarded as sunk cost. How much is the electricity, anybody knows here?

Also in my mind, leverage shorting is the main power driving prices down. Others could be negligible. Importantly, where does the shorting cover to close their shorts?

[samsonn25]

Downtosimple:

Dont understand your logic.

But miners already run at a loss.

The price is currently low because there is more selling than buying.

Sellers sell because they think price will go down in future, thats why they dont want to hold.  

Gamblers who buy are thinking the price will go up in the future, as of now more people think price will go down rather than trend up.

How do we know miners are running at a loss while difficulty is up up and up? In my mind, the pure cost is only electricity, the others could be regarded as sunk cost. How much is the electricity, anybody knows here?

Also in my mind, leverage shorting is the main power driving prices down. Others could be negligible. Importantly, where does the shorting cover to close their shorts?

Incorrect.  The true cost is capital investment and electricity cost.  Where can you get asic equipment for free?

Anyway: 

KNC Neptune roi .6 btc
Bitmain c1 roi .16 btc

Both running efficient .65-.7 watts GHS

I think most will agree electricity is between .10 ans .32 cents kwh  so average is around .16

Leveraged shorting still needs capital to cover any leveraged losses.  Either that or they can borrow the btc for free to sell it.  But there is still a limit of how much they can short, they cannot short more btc than is available, and if there is alot of early adopters who are holding on im sure they can make them "not available" to borrow and short.  Thus making the float even smaller.

[touhonoob]

Downtosimple:

Dont understand your logic.

But miners already run at a loss.

The price is currently low because there is more selling than buying.

Sellers sell because they think price will go down in future, thats why they dont want to hold.  

Gamblers who buy are thinking the price will go up in the future, as of now more people think price will go down rather than trend up.

How do we know miners are running at a loss while difficulty is up up and up? In my mind, the pure cost is only electricity, the others could be regarded as sunk cost. How much is the electricity, anybody knows here?

Also in my mind, leverage shorting is the main power driving prices down. Others could be negligible. Importantly, where does the shorting cover to close their shorts?

Some mining factories in China claim that their cost of electricity is nearly 0.

[samsonn25]

Downtosimple:

Dont understand your logic.

But miners already run at a loss.

The price is currently low because there is more selling than buying.

Sellers sell because they think price will go down in future, thats why they dont want to hold.  

Gamblers who buy are thinking the price will go up in the future, as of now more people think price will go down rather than trend up.

How do we know miners are running at a loss while difficulty is up up and up? In my mind, the pure cost is only electricity, the others could be regarded as sunk cost. How much is the electricity, anybody knows here?

Also in my mind, leverage shorting is the main power driving prices down. Others could be negligible. Importantly, where does the shorting cover to close their shorts?

Some mining factories in China claim that their cost of electricity is nearly 0.

This is possible some miners have this advantage of almost zero cost for electricity, but for the masses no.They must be stealing it from the governenment, either way someone pays the cost.  

There is also land rent and maintenance expenses.

[aminorex]

But miners already run at a loss.

when diff was lower and price was higher, lots of miners operated at a loss.  now, not so much.  almost all mining is now industrial, centralized, and industrial miners in iceland and china will not operate at a loss. 

[exocytosis]

Sometimes when it is really late and I am way too tired I open this thread and don't realize for a second that I am on the first page and I freak out at the $69 price for a second.    I guess the $350 price doesn't look too bad in comparison.

350? On which exchange?

[touhonoob]

Downtosimple:

Dont understand your logic.

But miners already run at a loss.

The price is currently low because there is more selling than buying.

Sellers sell because they think price will go down in future, thats why they dont want to hold.  

Gamblers who buy are thinking the price will go up in the future, as of now more people think price will go down rather than trend up.

How do we know miners are running at a loss while difficulty is up up and up? In my mind, the pure cost is only electricity, the others could be regarded as sunk cost. How much is the electricity, anybody knows here?

Also in my mind, leverage shorting is the main power driving prices down. Others could be negligible. Importantly, where does the shorting cover to close their shorts?

Some mining factories in China claim that their cost of electricity is nearly 0.

This is possible some miners have this advantage of almost zero cost for electricity, but for the masses no.They must be stealing it from the governenment, either way someone pays the cost.  

There is also land rent and maintenance expenses.

You should take a look at this documentary from NHK about Bitcoin in China: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IwLXSoQZIMM
Chinese people who invest in mining factories are super bullish on the future value of Bitcoin.
Since the investors have a lot of spare money, they are not hurry to cash out.
The investment of mining factories is long-term for Chinese investors.

Edit:
English Sub here
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B58tVkY6NVg

[sleger]

On the brightside the price of btc currently $326

is up 162% from $201 last November.

hmm no it's not :
the price is 162% of what it was last November
OR
the price is up 62%

[downtosimple]

Downtosimple:

Dont understand your logic.

But miners already run at a loss.

The price is currently low because there is more selling than buying.

Sellers sell because they think price will go down in future, thats why they dont want to hold.  

Gamblers who buy are thinking the price will go up in the future, as of now more people think price will go down rather than trend up.

How do we know miners are running at a loss while difficulty is up up and up? In my mind, the pure cost is only electricity, the others could be regarded as sunk cost. How much is the electricity, anybody knows here?

Also in my mind, leverage shorting is the main power driving prices down. Others could be negligible. Importantly, where does the shorting cover to close their shorts?

Incorrect.  The true cost is capital investment and electricity cost.  Where can you get asic equipment for free?

Anyway:  

KNC Neptune roi .6 btc
Bitmain c1 roi .16 btc

Both running efficient .65-.7 watts GHS

I think most will agree electricity is between .10 ans .32 cents kwh  so average is around .16

Leveraged shorting still needs capital to cover any leveraged losses.  Either that or they can borrow the btc for free to sell it.  But there is still a limit of how much they can short, they cannot short more btc than is available, and if there is alot of early adopters who are holding on im sure they can make them "not available" to borrow and short.  Thus making the float even smaller.

You are right. The true cost is capital investment and electricity cost. But, when we are talking about a turning point of difficulty, things may be different. I suppose the day will come when miners will have to take electricity as pure cost whist others as sunk cost.

I guess shorting on exchange and covering off exchange is a cycling game running till now. If you have doubt in Btc supply for shorting,  look at swap offers on bitfinex, supply is plenty.  The true concern is how they can buy back to close shorts. If they do so on exchanges, this may drive prices even higher than shorting level. There, they can go to miners off exchange, who has  plenty block chain rewards. That makes the cycling game, driving prices down and down.

The key thing is, when will supplies be drained out? on swap offer end or miner supply end? It seems to me, btc supplies from the miners end will be drained out first. AND we can track that by difficulty.

Anyway this is only my guess, being a hodler desperate for rallies. It may be totally wrong.

[aminorex]

It's impossible to lose money if you don't sell.

That argument is usually used by gamblers investors. Even if you don't sell, what matters is how much that bitcoins are worth now when you need to spend them compared when you bought. So if you bought higher you are losing money a suboptimal investor, like everyone else. The past is over and you don't know what will happen in the future, the only thing that counts is the present what happens in the future, and how well your choices have prepared you for it.

Technically not selling is the same than buying not buying...

FTFY