Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[coins101]

Gut feeling is that there's going to be a big movement upward in the next few days. I don't expect it to drop much lower from these levels.

I agree with you, except also, that I was thinking the same thing when it was bumping along at $390

Even if a small pump happens, then what? Miners, merchants and bitcoiners giving up (or cashing out at their breakeven point) will lead to more slow bleeding until market sentiment changes. And sentiments don't change from one day to another, it needs time for consolidation which we still didn't have (or a miracle).

...and yet difficulty is up and the number of transactions is at its highest.

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[DeadCoin]

Ignoring people because they have different opinions than yours is the reason you holders are losing money every day, while people like me who are able to consider other peoples points of view cut their losses long ago.

I'll be listening for the butthurt to ratchet up a notch once we get sub 300. Shouldn't be long now. This train is off the rails.

It's impossible to lose money if you don't sell.

watching your posts lately really hurt my eyes, the level of writing doesn't really reflect posts from a PHD holder (as you claim).... especially a computer science one, when the most thing that profession relay on is the things that you seem to be missing (math+logic).

lol, are you Slovenian? Your English is pretty bad considering most of the Slovenians speak English fluently.

[inca]

...and yet difficulty is up and the number of transactions is at its highest.

Yes curious divergence isn't it. Something has to give

[BitAddict]

Gut feeling is that there's going to be a big movement upward in the next few days. I don't expect it to drop much lower from these levels.

I agree with you, except also, that I was thinking the same thing when it was bumping along at $390

Even if a small pump happens, then what? Miners, merchants and bitcoiners giving up (or cashing out at their breakeven point) will lead to more slow bleeding until market sentiment changes. And sentiments don't change from one day to another, it needs time for consolidation which we still didn't have (or a miracle).

...and yet difficulty is up and the number of transactions is at its highest.

Higher difficulty means less profit for miners, so they need to dump more percentage of their daily mining income to pay bills.... That's something bad for bitcoin price (and only good for security).

Highers transactions means more users, but if they are not willing to buy then it doesn't mean price will go up. People like to invest when price is going up, and when they look last year chart they get scared as fuck. This users will probably buy, but they will feel the real urge to buy when bitcoin is 2x or 3x over ATH because bitcoin will be "cool again" and they won't want to "miss the train".
And I'm also convinced it is growing faster because people are sending more bitcoins to exchanges and expending them, adding more selling pressure.

I think bitcoin will have a shiny future, but it will need time to develop, maybe 6, 12 or 18 months. It is not magically goin to rally like lot of people think here.

[brg444]

Higher difficulty means less profit for miners, so they need to dump more percentage of their daily mining income to pay bills.... That's something bad for bitcoin price (and only good for security).

Highers transactions means more users, but if they are not willing to buy then it doesn't mean price will go up. People like to invest when price is going up, and when they look last year chart they get scared as fuck. This users will probably buy, but they will feel the real urge to buy when bitcoin is 2x or 3x over ATH because bitcoin will be "cool again" and they won't want to "miss the train".

I have discussed at length in the other thread why it is naive to assume that miners (well most of the ones that matter i.e. industrial ones) have to dump their bitcoins in order to pay bills.

They have several other revenue streams that can cover these costs.

[brg444]

Highers transactions means more users, but if they are not willing to buy then it doesn't mean price will go up. People like to invest when price is going up, and when they look last year chart they get scared as fuck. This users will probably buy, but they will feel the real urge to buy when bitcoin is 2x or 3x over ATH because bitcoin will be "cool again" and they won't want to "miss the train".
And I'm also convinced it is growing faster because people are sending more bitcoins to exchanges and expending them, adding more selling pressure.

I think bitcoin will have a shiny future, but it will need time to develop, maybe 6, 12 or 18 months. It is not magically goin to rally like lot of people think here.

but what if higher transactions translates to more coins being bought off exchange?

that sound like a pretty bullish scenario would you not agree?

[BitAddict]

Higher difficulty means less profit for miners, so they need to dump more percentage of their daily mining income to pay bills.... That's something bad for bitcoin price (and only good for security).

Highers transactions means more users, but if they are not willing to buy then it doesn't mean price will go up. People like to invest when price is going up, and when they look last year chart they get scared as fuck. This users will probably buy, but they will feel the real urge to buy when bitcoin is 2x or 3x over ATH because bitcoin will be "cool again" and they won't want to "miss the train".

I have discussed at length in the other thread why it is naive to assume that miners (well most of the ones that matter i.e. industrial ones) have to dump their bitcoins in order to pay bills.

They have several other revenue streams that can cover these costs.

I would like to read that thread. Can you give me link?

Even if that's true, part of that coins are probably sold to lock profits and others in order to wait for the trend to change.
Would me less than if they need to sell nearly all to pay bills, but still adding selling pressure though.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[BitAddict]

Highers transactions means more users, but if they are not willing to buy then it doesn't mean price will go up. People like to invest when price is going up, and when they look last year chart they get scared as fuck. This users will probably buy, but they will feel the real urge to buy when bitcoin is 2x or 3x over ATH because bitcoin will be "cool again" and they won't want to "miss the train".
And I'm also convinced it is growing faster because people are sending more bitcoins to exchanges and expending them, adding more selling pressure.

I think bitcoin will have a shiny future, but it will need time to develop, maybe 6, 12 or 18 months. It is not magically goin to rally like lot of people think here.

but what if higher transactions translates to more coins being bought off exchange?

that sound like a pretty bullish scenario would you not agree?

What?
Are you telling me if Satoshi comes and dumps off exchange 1 million bitcoins would be bullish for the price because lot of people would be buying?

When you sell something in the other side there is a buyer... that's granted. But what matters is sellers to buyers ratio. If you have more sellers price go down...
That's pretty simple, dude...

[brg444]

I would like to read that thread. Can you give me link?

Even if that's true, part of that coins are probably sold to lock profits and others in order to wait for the trend to change.
Would me less than if they need to sell nearly all to pay bills, but still adding selling pressure though.

some of my posts from the therad

Well if the mining profit margins are so narrow, how are they staying in operation without dumping BTC for fiat to cover their costs? They must have endless reserves of cash to hold all that BTC until the price rebounds right?

1. They have millions of dollars from selling mining gears
2. They have millions of dollars from VC investement
3. They have millions of dollars in Bitcoin profit from mining in the early days

So yes they must be burning through quite a lot of cash right now but in the long run they will be fine and they know it. Of course I am not suggesting they are ALL holding 100% of the Bitcoin mined but my guess is they are holding a good majority of them.
[/quote]

Miners are industry insiders at the top of the pyramid. I'm sure they are pretty confident about BTC's future.

BitFury founder and CEO Valery Vavilov indicated that the new funding will allow the company to complete production of its 28nm ASIC chip without selling the reserve bitcoins it has mined from its three industrial-scale data centres.

Vavilov told CoinDesk that it decided not to tap its bitcoin reserves as it remains bullish on the long-term value of bitcoin.

"We believe in the long-term perspective [the price of bitcoin] will grow and we decided to not to sell [our bitcoin] at such a low price," Vavilov added.

Here's another one from Josh Garza from GAWMiners at Hashers United conference :

Garza voiced the least concern regarding the price, saying that ultimately, the value of bitcoin is underpinned not so much by the consumers and merchants who use and accept digital currency but by the miners who facilitate the whole network.

“Miners believe in the currency the most,” he said.

More from this conference :

Terpin polled the crowd by asking how many sell a certain percentage of their bitcoins for fiat currencies like the dollar. One only miner raised their hand when Terpin asked if they sold 100% of their bitcoin for dollars, and about one-third of the crowd indicated that they don’t sell any of their generated bitcoins.

Again, I'm not saying all of the miners keep 100% of their coins but it is naive to believe the majority of them dump their Bitcoins for fiat

The thread is here :
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=833155.0

[macsga]

Higher difficulty means less profit for miners, so they need to dump more percentage of their daily mining income to pay bills.... That's something bad for bitcoin price (and only good for security).

Highers transactions means more users, but if they are not willing to buy then it doesn't mean price will go up. People like to invest when price is going up, and when they look last year chart they get scared as fuck. This users will probably buy, but they will feel the real urge to buy when bitcoin is 2x or 3x over ATH because bitcoin will be "cool again" and they won't want to "miss the train".

I have discussed at length in the other thread why it is naive to assume that miners (well most of the ones that matter i.e. industrial ones) have to dump their bitcoins in order to pay bills.

They have several other revenue streams that can cover these costs.

I would like to read that thread. Can you give me link?

Even if that's true, part of that coins are probably sold to lock profits and others in order to wait for the trend to change.

I'd like to read that thread too, because I have the urge to repeat that the price manipulation is based on the direct selling of a huge pool with the idea in mind to wipe out lower pools from existence. This could be certified (but not 100% proved) by checking the days destroyed chart. It's close to zero... THAT means Satoshi is NOT selling his stash. Oversimplifying also doesn't help. Of course the price goes down because of the more BTCs to sell vs less fiat to buy; but are you suggesting this couldn't be forged as well?

If you have another explanation please enlighten us. I'd very much like to know.

Edit: I concur with most of your opinions above. I share the same thoughts.
Cheers

[cbeast]

What?
Are you telling me if Satoshi comes and dumps off exchange 1 million bitcoins would be bullish for the price because lot of people would be buying?

When you sell something in the other side there is a buyer... that's granted. But what matters is sellers to buyers ratio. If you have more sellers price go down...
That's pretty simple, dude...

That would be like the equivalent of the end of Mt Gox. It would remove the Sword of Damocles and confidence would boom. That one million bitcoins would be eaten like chow in a mess hall.

[BitAddict]

What?
Are you telling me if Satoshi comes and dumps off exchange 1 million bitcoins would be bullish for the price because lot of people would be buying?

When you sell something in the other side there is a buyer... that's granted. But what matters is sellers to buyers ratio. If you have more sellers price go down...
That's pretty simple, dude...

That would be like the equivalent of the end of Mt Gox. It would remove the Sword of Damocles and confidence would boom. That one million bitcoins would be eaten like chow in a mess hall.

But we are speaking about short term price. That would drive the price instantly to something ridiculously low for a long time.
How can be that a bullish scenario in the short term?

[Dotto]

Lots of old coins are moving.

Try harder
https://blockchain.info/de/charts/bitcoin-days-destroyed

The moment btcney got ignored. Also, moderators, consider ban this account.

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

What?
Are you telling me if Satoshi comes and dumps off exchange 1 million bitcoins would be bullish for the price because lot of people would be buying?

When you sell something in the other side there is a buyer... that's granted. But what matters is sellers to buyers ratio. If you have more sellers price go down...
That's pretty simple, dude...

That would be like the equivalent of the end of Mt Gox. It would remove the Sword of Damocles and confidence would boom. That one million bitcoins would be eaten like chow in a mess hall.

I always wondered why the private keys to those coins weren't destroyed. That would have boosted confidence I imagine

[BitAddict]

What?
Are you telling me if Satoshi comes and dumps off exchange 1 million bitcoins would be bullish for the price because lot of people would be buying?

When you sell something in the other side there is a buyer... that's granted. But what matters is sellers to buyers ratio. If you have more sellers price go down...
That's pretty simple, dude...

That would be like the equivalent of the end of Mt Gox. It would remove the Sword of Damocles and confidence would boom. That one million bitcoins would be eaten like chow in a mess hall.

I always wondered why the private keys to those coins weren't destroyed. That would have boosted confidence I imagine

You can't prove you destroyed the private keys. But there are other ways, though.

[Dotto]

After gravity collapses, what do you expect people to be using to stay on the ground?

Are you thinking what i'm thinking?

tip: plug, tail

LOL

[cbeast]

What?
Are you telling me if Satoshi comes and dumps off exchange 1 million bitcoins would be bullish for the price because lot of people would be buying?

When you sell something in the other side there is a buyer... that's granted. But what matters is sellers to buyers ratio. If you have more sellers price go down...
That's pretty simple, dude...

That would be like the equivalent of the end of Mt Gox. It would remove the Sword of Damocles and confidence would boom. That one million bitcoins would be eaten like chow in a mess hall.

But we are speaking about short term price. That would drive the price instantly to something ridiculously low for a long time.
How can be that a bullish scenario in the short term?

Quite the opposite. It's the worry about the bitcoins that are not being sold (hence the low volume) that is keeping price down. Sure the price will go way down, because exchanges still use the Mt Gox model. If bitcoins were only sold through brokers and ATMs, the market would not be nearly so volatile.

[JorgeStolfi]

Bitcoin as an experiment is a huge success.

As the technical experiment that it was meant to be,  indeed bitcoin has not failed so far. Namely, the protocol designed by "Satoshi" has motivated enough volunteers to keep the blockchain updated and secure, non-stop, for almost 6 years now; and no fundamental security problems have been found.  (I gather that a bug made it necessary to rewind the blockchain some years ago, but it was not fundamental and quickly fixed.)

However, the experiment cannot yet be called a success, because it is not finished yet.  Mining is still supported by an "inflation tax" that increases the money supply to 5-10% per year.  At some point, that reward will be insufficient, and miners will have to depend on transaction fees.  In theory, the protocol should still work in that regime; but the point of the experiment is checking that the theory works in practice.  The experiment will be a success only if the network continues to function after that transition.

While the experiment has not failed so far, some developments, which may have been unexpected, suggested some potential problems that have not been adequately dismissed yet.  In particular, mining turned out to have substantial economies of scale, so that it has become concentrated in a handful of large companies and pools.  That increases the likelyhood of "51% attacks" and double spending in transactions with few confirmations.  It may also give the large mining companies the same oligopoly power that banks now have over international money transfers, with the same results.

Moreover, if there will be a large decline in price, difficulty will have to drop while some of the hashing equipment will have to be switched off.  Thus, at some point there may be enough idle hashing power in the hands of a single entity to mount a surprise 51% attack.

Also, its apparent anonimity (which was not a design goal, but merely an inevitable consequence of the "trustless" goal) attracted substantial criminal use.  It also made bitcoin theft and scams easy, profitable, and difficult to fight.  The huge price increase (partly driven by its illegal uses) caused all sorts of problems in itself.  It attracted people who were not interested in the technical experiment or its real goal, but only in the speculative potential.  A few people accumulated large hoards of cheap coins, reducing supply and leading to even higher prices (and unheard-of volatility).  Some investors have been trying to convince computer-naive people to buy bitcoin as a get-rich-quick scheme, or as a way to escape inflation.  As a result, bitcoin got a bad public image and hostility from many governments.  These developments do not yet threaten the technical experiment directly, but could do so if bitcoin gets banned over most of the world.

The question was whether something like this backed by nothing can have actual value, and the answer is a resounding yes.

The jury is still out on that.  There have been many things "backed by nothing" that were highly prized and profitable -- for a while.

[brg444]

The jury is still out on that.  There have been many things "backed by nothing" that were highly prized and profitable -- for a while.

 

Success is never truly final unless something comes to an end. In the case of Bitcoin it is more of a process and considering the mind share and capital it has attracted in the 6 last years I would be very comfortable to say that Bitcoin is presently a success