Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[1714630031]

1714630031

[fonsie]

Now bigger, smarter, girthier kids are providing the surprise buttsecs.

There is way more money in it for them to rally the price higher yet again than crashing the market into the floor. Hundreds of millions of VC money, infrastructure, rising user numbers, potential ETF to draw in investment capital. It's really a matter of when we go up. There is too much money to be made in this space for us not to mount another bubble or three. I still think this is all a distribution phase prior to the next run up. Unless we smash below the previous ATH on heavy volume, bitcoin days destroyed goes berzerk, or the black swan - the US comes out and bans bitcoin.

I don't see how one can make money with a pure pump-and-dump strategy (buying to increase the price, then selling at the higher price).  Sounds like those old perpetual-motion machines where falling weights are supposed to pull other weights up.  A successful pump-and-dump must include substantial misleading marketing as well.

Venture capital (which seems to grow 2--3x each time the original estimates are re-quoted  ) has been going mostly into auxiliary services like exchanges, payment processors, fund management, gambling sites, etc.  Those enterprises do not profit from BTC price increase, but from fees collected from BTC users.  While increasing price and/or usage would increase their fees, the investment they would have to make in order to pump the price is much more than what they expect to profit from the resulting price increase.

There is no data on actual BTC usage for e-commerce.  More shops accepting bitcoins may be just splitting the same market niche (owners of old coins who decide to cash in by shopping) over a larger merchant base.  Ditto for the increasing numbers of payment processors, funds, gamblings sites etc..

I'm very skeptic about your academic interest. Venture capital doesn't benefit directly from increasing prises, but they also don't go investing in something they see dissapearing into oblivion in a years time.

[fonsie]

$319.88 here it comes again!

Dude, that was like... I don't know, like ages ago. Back at 323 again.

Take a look at the 1 minute chart, for the bigger picture on it all.

[r0ach]

and the attractiveness of BTC as an investment cannot be growing

I made a pretty solid case that if BTC does not go below previous ATH levels, which most people don't expect it to do, that BTC has already entered savings account level of interest rates (5%ish per year) in a bad case scenario where the price only remains stagnant but BTC keeps on surviving:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=837260.msg9353457#msg9353457

[grappa_barricata]

I don't see how one can make money with a pure pump-and-dump strategy (buying to increase the price, then selling at the higher price).  Sounds like those old perpetual-motion machines where falling weights are supposed to pull other weights up.  A successful pump-and-dump must include substantial misleading marketing as well.

You must be more subtle when trying to understand psy-ops. For example, consider if most of the book is filled with the pump-n-dumper offers.
Also, marketing is not strictly required. It is a bonus. It can be used to optimize the process, but the process doesn't require marketing per se.

[fonsie]

and the attractiveness of BTC as an investment cannot be growing

The cheaper it gets, the more attractive it looks to invest in. You don't wanna go investing at the top.
Didn't they teach you that in "Academics School".

[JorgeStolfi]

The cheaper it gets, the more attractive it looks to invest in. You don't wanna go investing at the top.

Well, I always understood that, in the basic rule "buy low, sell high", the word "low" means "lower than TOMORROW", not "lower than YESTERDAY".   

[Erdogan]

and the attractiveness of BTC as an investment cannot be growing

I made a pretty solid case that if BTC does not go below previous ATH levels, which most people don't expect it to do, that BTC has already entered savings account level of interest rates (5%ish per year) in a bad case scenario where the price only remains stagnant but BTC keeps on surviving:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=837260.msg9353457#msg9353457

Wtf? There is only one ATH, and we will almost always be below it.

[r0ach]

Academic interest in bitcoin only. Not owner, not trader, very skeptical of its longterm success.

Your signature above.  After fiat collapses, what do you expect people to be using?  Gold?  Barter with seashells?  Obviously gold will be around, and all Bitcoin has to do is survive until that moment of fiat implosion happens to catch much of the same incoming cash flow gold receives.

[NotLambchop]

Academic interest in bitcoin only. Not owner, not trader, very skeptical of its longterm success.

Your signature above.  After fiat collapses, what do you expect people to be using? ...

After gravity collapses, what do you expect people to be using to stay on the ground?

[goldsun]

So how will we do on Monday? Any thoughts?

Anyone buying now or do everyone wait for even lower prices?

BTW, its kind of annoying with pics in the thread. And I don't think I only speak for myself when I say this.

[grappa_barricata]

After gravity collapses, what do you expect people to be using to stay on the ground?

Are you thinking what i'm thinking?

tip: plug, tail

[JorgeStolfi]

Venture capital doesn't benefit directly from increasing prises, but they also don't go investing in something they see dissapearing into oblivion in a years time.

Yes, those venture capitalists surely expected to make profit from their investment.  They may have made a bad decision, betting that the price would recover and attract more customers to their businesses.  However, even if the price keeps falling at the present rate, they can still have a profit.

SMBIT, for example, charges fees whether people stay or leave.  They buy BTC with money from customers (those who buy SMBIT shares), not from investors (those VCs who have equity in the company that manages SMBIT).  If the BTC price keeps dropping, the SMBIT shares will drop too, but only customers will lose their money; the managers and their VC partners will still collect fees.  By my estimates, they have already collected a few million dollars in fees, with very little expense.  Even if the price drops to zero over a couple of years, they may still make more than they invested.

Plus, the managers sold an initial "endowment" of 18'000 old coins to their customers in September for 120$ each, and that adds to their profit too.  Indeed, starting a bitcoin fund (or buying equity in a fund management company, paying in BTC; like Fortress did earlier this year with Pantera) is a good way to sell a large amount of old cheap coins at the current market price, with little slippage; while keeping those old coins out of the open market for six months at least, together with any additional coins that the fund then buys from the open market.

[Micky25]

After gravity collapses, what do you expect people to be using to stay on the ground?

Are you thinking what i'm thinking?

tip: plug, tail

a buttplug? Scary..

[fonsie]

Venture capital doesn't benefit directly from increasing prises, but they also don't go investing in something they see dissapearing into oblivion in a years time.

Yes, those venture capitalists surely expected to make profit from their investment.  They may have made a bad decision, betting that the price would recover and attract more customers to their businesses.  However, even if the price keeps falling at the present rate, they can still have a profit.

SMBIT, for example, charges fees whether people stay or leave.  They buy BTC with money from customers (those who buy SMBIT shares), not from investors (those VCs who have equity in the company that manages SMBIT).  If the BTC price keeps dropping, the SMBIT shares will drop too, but only customers will lose their money; the managers and their VC partners will still collect fees.  By my estimates, they have already collected a few million dollars in fees, with very little expense.  Even if the price drops to zero over a couple of years, they may still make more than they invested.

Plus, the managers sold an initial "endowment" of 18'000 old coins to their customers in September for 120$ each, and that adds to their profit too.  Indeed, starting a bitcoin fund (or buying equity in a fund management company, paying in BTC; like Fortress did earlier this year with Pantera) is a good way to sell a large amount of old cheap coins at the current market price, with little slippage; while keeping those old coins out of the open market for six months at least, together with any additional coins that the fund then buys from the open market.

Don't you get tired of all that yapping?

[grappa_barricata]

a buttplug? Scary..

LOL, at first i thought it was a very good photoshop, but no. Holy shit, nope, it's real!

[JorgeStolfi]

You probably do not want to know that I guessed "330$ by Halloween" on Adam's  poll, right after it was posted. 

(OK, OK, "even a broken clock"...)

[NotLambchop]

[Tzupy]

Adam, time to change the poll (Halloween is over anyway). I voted 360$ and it turns out I wasn't bearish enough.

[touhonoob]

IG Launched Flexible Bitcoin Trading
http://www.ig.com/au/bitcoin-btc