Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JorgeStolfi]

Dollar cost averaging means buying 100 at $800 and 200 at $400.  It will result in a gain on the total investment, with p -> 1.0 as t -> oo, if conducted without fail at a constant rate without slippage on a log-normal distributed series of increments.

Thanks for the clarification! 

However, is it necessary to buy the same dollar amount every time?  Is that strategy optimal in some sense, for that model?

If the increments in log(price(t)) have a normal distribution, the expected value of price(t) as t goes to infinity will slowly increase; won't it?  If so, that strategy works in theory because the assumed model is optimistic.   

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[billyjoeallen]

Six hour moving average just crossed. Even though I'm short, I really didn't expect it to go down so far so fast. I need a higher price so I can short some more.

So far so fast? Were $18 over the last five days. I used to enjoy your postings until you got crazy and missed the May run up. Sounds like much of the same talk now as then. Telling people they needed to sell now and help you defend the bottom etc. The fact that you think we need more people to loose money (the price going down) to attract new investors is just crazy. Investor - "That Bitcoin thing I was thinking about investing in just hit $100 down from an ATH of $1200, seems like a great investment to me" /s. Other than the fact your clearly trying to increase your stash I just don't understand where your coming from.

The thing that worries me about hodlers (and I was one) is that you aren't going to have much money to help stop the crash because you didn't sell anything at the higher level.

The crash wouldn't even start if people didn't sell, hodlers selling to defend the bottom just increases the pace and depth of the drop (if there is one) scaring even more investors away.

I did miss the runup, but I missed the crash back down also. Obviously I'll get another crack at it and so will everyone else who didn't fall for that bull trap.

Look, I'm still a long term bull, but You gotta admit that the near term momentum is down and this way I'll have more fiat to shore up support. What scares investers away (as opposed to traders) is volatility. We have failed to punish volatility sufficiently. To do that we need to sell when the price goes up as well as buy when it goes down.

[dreamspark]

I did miss the runup, but I missed the crash back down also. Obviously I'll get another crack at it and so will everyone else who didn't fall for that bull trap.

Look, I'm still a long term bull, but You gotta admit that the near term momentum is down and this way I'll have more fiat to shore up support. What scares investers away (as opposed to traders) is volatility. We have failed to punish volatility sufficiently. To do that we need to sell when the price goes up as well as buy when it goes down.

Putting a personal spin on your point of view of selling high and defending the bottom, I sold a chunk during that run, not particularly close to the top but I put that fiat to good use defending sub $300, since then all Ive seen is higher lows and a feeling we have seen the bottom.

In regards to this momentum I completely agree but expected nothing less in the middle of an auction for 50k coins, everyones just looking at each other to make a move. The fact that there was a big dump on stamp and it didn't send us tumbling down, to me demonstrates at least some confidence.

I guess the issue really is that you see this as selling after the price has gone up but for me $275 to $375 over the course of two months doesn't fit into that category.  I certainly dont feel the need to trade this super low volume which I view as due to the auction rather than any normal TA reasoning. Time will tell as always I just personally think its not a great spot to be selling or buying really for that matter.

[billyjoeallen]

about 1 hour to lift off.  

the launch has been delayed due to inclement weather.

Y'all should be happy I'm shorting. If there is a crash, I'll be there to cover my put and if it goes up from here, I'll be force liquidated, driving the price even higher.

[arklan]

apologies for ...well, for spamming this thread with something totally off topic, but i'm in a real bad way and need help.

in short, my car got hit in october, it's finally fixed, i need a total of $1000 to cover the deductible (total repairs were north of 5k) i've been loaned 1 b so far. if i could get two more i'd be set and able to get back to work.

any help will be repaid with interest (set your own rate!) and i'll owe ya a solid favor too.

[macsga]

about 1 hour to lift off.  

the launch has been delayed due to inclement weather.

Y'all should be happy I'm shorting. If there is a crash, I'll be there to cover my put and if it goes up from here, I'll be force liquidated, driving the price even higher.

Out of curiosity; what's the magnitude of coins you're trading? 10s / 100s / more?

[noobtrader]

about 1 hour to lift off.  

the launch has been delayed due to inclement weather.

Y'all should be happy I'm shorting. If there is a crash, I'll be there to cover my put and if it goes up from here, I'll be force liquidated, driving the price even higher.

 

smart moves, that means you can reap profit from any movement of the market. but of course you should constantly monitor the price... 

[jonoiv]

about 1 hour to lift off.  

the launch has been delayed due to inclement weather.

Y'all should be happy I'm shorting. If there is a crash, I'll be there to cover my put and if it goes up from here, I'll be force liquidated, driving the price even higher.

It does look that way yes. 

[billyjoeallen]

about 1 hour to lift off.  

the launch has been delayed due to inclement weather.

Y'all should be happy I'm shorting. If there is a crash, I'll be there to cover my put and if it goes up from here, I'll be force liquidated, driving the price even higher.

Out of curiosity; what's the magnitude of coins you're trading? 10s / 100s / more?

I only have a 50 coin short in right now. If we go back up in the 380s or 90s in the next week, I'll double it. I'll be the first to admit that I'm a shitty day trader, so I'm not going to make any big moves until I have some more confidence in my abilities.

I have substantially more in cold storage, so I actually hope I'm wrong about a retest of ~$300 support. I'll make money either way. I suspect better traders than me are trading these small bounces, betting on a rebound, giving bulls more rope to hang themselves with.

[Sellman]

http://www.edmontonsun.com/2014/12/04/50000-bitcoins-seized-in-silk-road-bust-up-for-auction


"My expectation is that most bids will be aggressively to the downside in the hope of getting a post-Black Friday bargain," he wrote.

[billyjoeallen]

http://www.edmontonsun.com/2014/12/04/50000-bitcoins-seized-in-silk-road-bust-up-for-auction


"My expectation is that most bids will be aggressively to the downside in the hope of getting a post-Black Friday bargain," he wrote.

Yeah, but you only need one sucker to meet your price. I hope the feds get next to nothing. and I hope the bidders lose money also. I don't approve of buying stolen property. This is somewhat in conflict with my hopes of a price recovery relatively soon, so I guess I can live with any outcome.

[N12]

The fiat & BTC poor trolls are out in force today.
They must be terrified incase the price rises after this auction.

It's so bitter I can almost taste the lemon.

CCMF soon. 850 BTC wall buy on Finex.

Howz that workin' out for you so far?

BillieJoeAllen who told us about the S-Curve in spring and that we are on our direct way to 250000$ coins.
BillieJoeAllen who insulted everybody massively that shorted@800$
BillieJoeAllen who was knee deep in BTC @6-700$ that he even couldn´t afford to pay his electric bills.
BillieJoeAllen who maxed out all his credit cards and the ones form his girlfriend to buy cheap BTC @ ~5-600$
BillieJoeAllen who missed the massive runup in May to 680$
...
...
...
BillieJoeAllen who is now shorting@370-380$.... and talking his book...

We´ll see how that works out!



 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[fichtn12345]

The fiat & BTC poor trolls are out in force today.
They must be terrified incase the price rises after this auction.

It's so bitter I can almost taste the lemon.

CCMF soon. 850 BTC wall buy on Finex.

Howz that workin' out for you so far?

BillieJoeAllen who told us about the S-Curve in spring and that we are on our direct way to 250000$ coins.
BillieJoeAllen who insulted everybody massively that shorted@800$
BillieJoeAllen who was knee deep in BTC @6-700$ that he even couldn´t afford to pay his electric bills.
BillieJoeAllen who maxed out all his credit cards and the ones form his girlfriend to buy cheap BTC @ ~5-600$
BillieJoeAllen who missed the massive runup in May to 680$
...
...
...
BillieJoeAllen who is now shorting@370-380$.... and talking his book...

We´ll see how that works out!



 

Fonzie, seriously... you "outentertain" the others by far. You are one of the two main reasons i still read this thread. Although it is getting boring from time to time, but hey that is reason number two... boredom.

[N12]

I only have a 50 coin short in right now. If we go back up in the 380s or 90s in the next week, I'll double it. I'll be the first to admit that I'm a shitty day trader, so I'm not going to make any big moves until I have some more confidence in my abilities.

I have substantially more in cold storage, so I actually hope I'm wrong about a retest of ~$300 support. I'll make money either way. I suspect better traders than me are trading these small bounces, betting on a rebound, giving bulls more rope to hang themselves with.

Unless your short is on such high leverage that it will compensate for losses in your cold storage, no, you are not making money either way (net).

Also:

I only have a 50 coin short in right now. If we go back up in the 380s or 90s in the next week, I'll double it.

Boy, what a great strategy. Average up your loss.

[jonoiv]

The fiat & BTC poor trolls are out in force today.
They must be terrified incase the price rises after this auction.

It's so bitter I can almost taste the lemon.

CCMF soon. 850 BTC wall buy on Finex.

Howz that workin' out for you so far?

BillieJoeAllen who told us about the S-Curve in spring and that we are on our direct way to 250000$ coins.
BillieJoeAllen who insulted everybody massively that shorted@800$
BillieJoeAllen who was knee deep in BTC @6-700$ that he even couldn´t afford to pay his electric bills.
BillieJoeAllen who maxed out all his credit cards and the ones form his girlfriend to buy cheap BTC @ ~5-600$
BillieJoeAllen who missed the massive runup in May to 680$
...
...
...
BillieJoeAllen who is now shorting@370-380$.... and talking his book...

We´ll see how that works out!



 

He sounds more confused than Tyler Durden.

[smoothie]

Wow.... Fucken quiet in here.   

Usually a good time to buy 

[billyjoeallen]

BillieJoeAllen who told us about the S-Curve in spring and that we are on our direct way to 250000$ coins.
BillieJoeAllen who insulted everybody massively that shorted@800$
BillieJoeAllen who was knee deep in BTC @6-700$ that he even couldn´t afford to pay his electric bills.
BillieJoeAllen who maxed out all his credit cards and the ones form his girlfriend to buy cheap BTC @ ~5-600$
BillieJoeAllen who missed the massive runup in May to 680$
...
...
...
BillieJoeAllen who is now shorting@370-380$.... and talking his book...

We´ll see how that works out!

Yeah, I'm also the guy who has money to lose because I bought in @ $10 four years ago. I'm not selling anything or trying to convince anyone of anything. I'm just calling it how I see it and time will tell.

The silver lining is that I'll have no capital gains to declare this year 

[billyjoeallen]

about 1 hour to lift off.  

still waiting.

edit: ~$0.75 so far. what does it have to rise to be considered a successful launch? I'm making popcorn.

[NotLambchop]

about 1 hour to lift off.  

still waiting.

Moonbound 2:00pm departing shortly.  All aboard, gentlemen!
Check ignition and may God's love be with you.  Ten... Nine...