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NotLambchop
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December 03, 2014, 02:07:59 PM |
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I finally did it, I Ignored NotLambchop. Damn that feels good, breath of fresh air for sure.
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I realize it's pleasant to ignore painful facts--but it's me who'll be wiping your snot and drying your tears when you [predictably] end up broke.  |
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NotLambchop
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December 03, 2014, 02:11:41 PM |
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LOL, okay Citi says the coins are going to go for a steep discount, must sell all my coins, after all they are bitcoin experts  Which thought is correct? (a) They should go for somewhat of a discount because it's an auction, and they are buying in bulk. OR (b) They should go for a bit over the current price because one couldn't simply buy that large amount of coins regularly without causing major slippage. (c) They should keep doing what they're doing: Politely stifling their laughter. *No one has answered my culinary question. |
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dreamspark
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December 03, 2014, 02:13:33 PM |
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LOL, okay Citi says the coins are going to go for a steep discount, must sell all my coins, after all they are bitcoin experts Which thought is correct? (a) They should go for somewhat of a discount because it's an auction, and they are buying in bulk. OR (b) They should go for a bit over the current price because one couldn't simply buy that large amount of coins regularly without causing major slippage. If you go back this thread in June you'll see this discussed over and over again. Im going to quote oda here rather than writing lots of stuff out I hope he doesn't mind but it should give you an idea of what likely happened last time and theres not much to suggest it should be different. Tim Draper is holding (so he says; although his coins moved recently, it seems). Given his experience (~33% paper loss so far), the next auction winner may be a speculator who buys substantially below market to sell right away, possibly on the markets.
People (the bearish side of the forum, I mean) said exactly the same thing last time. That'd it be turned into arb profit right away (which was and is plausible, of course. iirc correctly, there was even a lady from some bank registered that *did* specialize in arb ^_^). Didn't work out that way. We don't know the exact price that the lots took in last time, but probably neither drastically above nor below market. Not drastically below, because one guy got them all, not drastically above, because the premium to get them all in one, counter party risk free lot is there, but probably not so large that it warrants, say, doubling market price. All of the above holds this time again. Arb opportunity still exists, but requires getting the coins well below market. Will that happen? I strongly doubt it. Renewed volume across all exchanges, and several large buys of Secondmarket during the last weeks lead me to think the current price level is maybe not "stable" (nothing is ever stable in the banana republic of Bitcoin), but that it is at least as tempting to buy in at the current level than it was at the level during the previous auction, and probably more so. Not sure how you got from "two participants [going] on record [with] lowball offers" to anything meaningful. If offers were made @$100 or even $20 per, would the statements be any different?
Lowball offer based on market price means market price times some value < 1. The lower that value, the more arb profit. The closer that value to 1, the higher the chance you'll get a chance at arb profit. If you think they submitted a $20 offers, sure, go ahead. I sure would have liked to see the meeting the bank lady had with her superiors afterwards.  What wraps it up is that one participant outbid all other participants on all lots. The previous auction converged around market price at the time, that's all I'm saying. I don't care if it was market +5% or market -5%, but my point is, from references to on-exchange market price plus auction mechanics and one winner of all lots, "near market" is a pretty conservative conclusion. Harping on about how it probably went away for a fraction sounds more like wishful thinking to me, tbh. |
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NotLambchop
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December 03, 2014, 02:16:32 PM |
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^TL;DR of the above, in a single gif:  |
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cbeast
Donator
Legendary
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Activity: 1736
Merit: 1006
Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.
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December 03, 2014, 02:53:28 PM |
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Future News Headline: Kim Jong-un surrenders the Korean War. Terms of surrender include DPR's and Gox's bitcoins totalling nearly 1 million. Whil;e the world goes broke rebuilding North Korea, Dr. Kim as he calls himself now buys The Dallas Mavericks with Dennis Rodman and renames the team the White Skins.
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ChartBuddy
Legendary
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Activity: 2170
Merit: 1776
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
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December 03, 2014, 03:00:56 PM |
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noobtrader
Legendary
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Activity: 1456
Merit: 1000
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December 03, 2014, 03:12:20 PM |
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i wonder when we will receive info about the auction  this market is killing me. no volume and flatlined price. |
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Assad
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December 03, 2014, 03:14:15 PM |
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i wonder when we will receive info about the auction this market is killing me. no volume and flatlined price. Auction will be tomorrow. Guess no info until friday, maybe until monday |
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uvt9
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December 03, 2014, 03:17:59 PM |
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OMG Bashar al Assad is interested in Bitcoin, this is bullish  |
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cbeast
Donator
Legendary
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Activity: 1736
Merit: 1006
Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.
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December 03, 2014, 03:18:28 PM |
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i wonder when we will receive info about the auction this market is killing me. no volume and flatlined price. Auction will be tomorrow. Guess no info until friday, maybe until monday Expect FUD and false leaks. |
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JayJuanGee
Legendary
 Online
Activity: 3710
Merit: 10220
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
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December 03, 2014, 03:31:06 PM |
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Fucking broken logic, did a woman done came up with this? So tell me, is it sexual frustration or financial frustration that makes you say sexist shit? Fake edit: Probably both. It was a joke Relax kid! But aren't jokes supposed to be funny? That joke was funny... |
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spooderman
Legendary
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Activity: 1638
Merit: 1022
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December 03, 2014, 03:42:13 PM |
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What kind of gentlemen is this?
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600watt
Legendary
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Activity: 2338
Merit: 2106
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December 03, 2014, 03:43:36 PM |
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nice buy on stamp
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Unpredictable
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December 03, 2014, 03:47:33 PM |
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nice buy on stamp
and dump before it |
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FUR11
Sr. Member
Offline
Activity: 378
Merit: 250
FURring bitcoin up since 1762
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December 03, 2014, 03:52:12 PM |
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nice buy on stamp
and dump before it Well, the slipping down to $374 made me dread another big dumping down into the $360s or $350s, but this really looks rather optimistic now. I wonder if this is sustainable growth, or just another slow train that falls down at some point. |
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Torque
Legendary
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Activity: 3556
Merit: 5041
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December 03, 2014, 03:54:35 PM |
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It's just too much of a coincidence that the USMS auction is going to coincide perfectly with the Stamp 3d EMA cross. |
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findftp
Legendary
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Activity: 1022
Merit: 1006
Delusional crypto obsessionist
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December 03, 2014, 03:58:39 PM |
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It's just too much of a coincidence that the USMS auction is going to coincide perfectly with the Stamp 3d EMA cross. And we all know what that means, right? Drop down to at least 270 in 3 weeks. |
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ChartBuddy
Legendary
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Activity: 2170
Merit: 1776
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
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December 03, 2014, 04:01:01 PM |
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wobber
Legendary
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Activity: 1064
Merit: 1001
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December 03, 2014, 04:06:11 PM |
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Show me an ATH before I die
Take me out of this stag-cry
Teach me again on how to fly
Lead me so that I can buy
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