Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[NotLambchop]

...
More like sell to me before it takes off again. Nice reverse psychology.. works on 4 y/o's.  

Leave our children alone, shameless Bitcoiner!

[1714989057]

1714989057

[1714989057]

1714989057

[Sitarow]

2:05PM EST

[Iraes78]

Down to the deep again, sell before its too late. 

More like sell to me before it takes off again. Nice reverse psychology.. works on 4 y/o's. 

You're too evil-minded my dear, im just trying to help the comunity   

[jeffhuys]

Hahahaha, thanks for the laugh 

[JorgeStolfi]

The US Marshals have announced they will auction 50K bitcoins on 5th March. I'm wondering if we might get a pamic dump because of it. These auctions seem to have a big effect on the price.
http://www.coindesk.com/us-marshals-auction-50000-bitcoins-march/

The first one caused a drop of ~70 USD on its announcement (~2014-06-11) which was reversed when it was known that one bidder had bought all the coins (~2014-06-30). 

The ssecond one (announced ~2014-11-17, result known ~2014-12-09) did not have any clear effect although there was a ~25 USD drop on the day before the result became known (a leak perhaps?).

Auctions are good, rich dumb guys buy all the btc, they hold it, less coins in circulation, btc bagholders win long run.

It depends... Those coins are now out of the active market, whether open (exchanges) and OTC (off-exchanges).   The auction will take a lot of dollars out of the pockets of people who would otherwise buy bitcoins in the market; so it will put a negative pressure on the price. 

If the coins are bought by long-term hoders, the effect will not be immediate; simply there will be less money around in the following onths.  If the winners are short-term speculators, the drop may be immediate as they offer the coins for sale.

(On the other hand, perhaps there are people who are not buying BTC now because they hope to get a better deal at the auction.  If they do not win the auction, perhaps they will start buying from the market.)

[bitards]

The US Marshals have announced they will auction 50K bitcoins on 5th March. I'm wondering if we might get a pamic dump because of it. These auctions seem to have a big effect on the price.
http://www.coindesk.com/us-marshals-auction-50000-bitcoins-march/

The first one caused a drop of ~70 USD on its announcement (~2014-06-11) which was reversed when it was known that one bidder had bought all the coins (~2014-06-30). 

The ssecond one (announced ~2014-11-17, result known ~2014-12-09) did not have any clear effect although there was a ~25 USD drop on the day before the result became known (a leak perhaps?).

Auctions are good, rich dumb guys buy all the btc, they hold it, less coins in circulation, btc bagholders win long run.

It depends... Those coins are now out of the active market, whether open (exchanges) and OTC (off-exchanges).   The auction will take a lot of dollars out of the pockets of people who would otherwise buy bitcoins in the market; so it will put a negative pressure on the price. 

If the coins are bought by long-term hoders, the effect will not be immediate; simply there will be less money around in the following onths.  If the winners are short-term speculators, the drop may be immediate as they offer the coins for sale.

(On the other hand, perhaps there are people who are not buying BTC now because they hope to get a better deal at the auction.  If they do not win the auction, perhaps they will start buying from the market.)

Your points are much better lol.
Maybe btc will go back up, as it has been the Chinese manipulating the btc price downwards to screw the US out of money in the auctions!!!

[tarmi]

all the previous auctions were won by newcomers.

Second market Bagholdin inc.

&

Tim Draper, CEO of Bitcoin bagholders

[damiano]

Nice bounce
No Panic

[silverfuture]

CNN: Breaking the bank: Bitcoins hit Africa's money transfer traditions

http://www.cnn.com/2015/02/17/business/bitcoin-africa-unbanked/

Transferring cash via a bank or a Money Transfer Operator (MTOs) like Western Union or MoneyGram can be costly. According to the Overseas Development Institute, the average charge to transfer $200 to Africa using traditional money transfer services is 12%. If you send $200, you pay $24. The ODI added up all the transfers that happen in a year, and found remittance fees cost the African continent $1.8 billion a year.

  
What if that money could be spent on things, rather than fees?

As Bitcoin is a virtual peer-to-peer currency -- designed to operate on the border-less internet -- the costs of transferring money can be radically cheaper than traditional methods, and the process is much quicker.

"Bitcoin can greatly alter the remittances industry and beyond," says Michael Kimani, who heads the African Digital Currency Association, a Kenya-based group launched last May to promote digital currency technologies. "From seven days [for a transaction to clear] using banks & PayPal, down to 20 minutes speaks volumes."

A laudable intention, and I hope that international payments and remittances will be much, much cheaper in the future.  However, bitcoin as a remittance mechanism has a problem: it does not actually send dollars to the Zimberians, it only shuffles Zimberian patacas among Zimberians.  This is what happens then:

https://np.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/2vypy9/if_i_was_looking_to_sell_big_or_relatively_big/

Hi guys, I'm from a Bitcoin startup in the Philippines [ReBit] and we have services that range from payment processing, remittance, prepaid cards, and even new order book exchange.

Our business has been growing steadily and we've found ourselves needing to trade out big amounts of BTC for fiat on a consistent basis daily, which we have so far been able to do using our own contacts. Increasing volumes of incoming BTC is making it harder and harder though. [ ... ]

Some comments on that from the premier Skeptic Tank:
https://www.reddit.com/r/Buttcoin/comments/2w1f4g/rebit_having_problems_finding_bagholders_in_the/

Yes, those are legitimate challenges to overcome in using bitcoin for remittances. The fact is though that there are people looking to overcome those challenges and provide a valuable service. It is undeniable that this is an industry ripe for disruption with a lot of profits to chase. Wider adoption is needed in order to get us to a point where btc-btc remittances are all you need. You don't even need a third party for that.

[marcus_of_augustus]

The US Marshals have announced they will auction 50K bitcoins on 5th March. I'm wondering if we might get a pamic dump because of it. These auctions seem to have a big effect on the price.
http://www.coindesk.com/us-marshals-auction-50000-bitcoins-march/

The first one caused a drop of ~70 USD on its announcement (~2014-06-11) which was reversed when it was known that one bidder had bought all the coins (~2014-06-30). 

The ssecond one (announced ~2014-11-17, result known ~2014-12-09) did not have any clear effect although there was a ~25 USD drop on the day before the result became known (a leak perhaps?).

Auctions are good, rich dumb guys buy all the btc, they hold it, less coins in circulation, btc bagholders win long run.

It depends... Those coins are now out of the active market, whether open (exchanges) and OTC (off-exchanges).   The auction will take a lot of dollars out of the pockets of people who would otherwise buy bitcoins in the market; so it will put a negative pressure on the price. 

If the coins are bought by long-term hoders, the effect will not be immediate; simply there will be less money around in the following onths.  If the winners are short-term speculators, the drop may be immediate as they offer the coins for sale.

(On the other hand, perhaps there are people who are not buying BTC now because they hope to get a better deal at the auction.  If they do not win the auction, perhaps they will start buying from the market.)

... wrong, this a "Buy the news" moment, because all the psychology that you meticulously detail here with great effort has already been priced in awaiting this announcement. Only a few slow beartards traders will get caught expecting any drop ... that's all folks, next stop 2 fitty.

[Fatman3001]

Nice bounce
No Panic

The sky is falling!

wut?

[Wary]

The US Marshals have announced they will auction 50K bitcoins on 5th March. I'm wondering if we might get a pamic dump because of it. These auctions seem to have a big effect on the price.
http://www.coindesk.com/us-marshals-auction-50000-bitcoins-march/

The first one caused a drop of ~70 USD on its announcement (~2014-06-11) which was reversed when it was known that one bidder had bought all the coins (~2014-06-30). 

The ssecond one (announced ~2014-11-17, result known ~2014-12-09) did not have any clear effect although there was a ~25 USD drop on the day before the result became known (a leak perhaps?).

Auctions are good, rich dumb guys buy all the btc, they hold it, less coins in circulation, btc bagholders win long run.

It depends... Those coins are now out of the active market, whether open (exchanges) and OTC (off-exchanges).   The auction will take a lot of dollars out of the pockets of people who would otherwise buy bitcoins in the market; so it will put a negative pressure on the price. 

If the coins are bought by long-term hoders, the effect will not be immediate; simply there will be less money around in the following onths.  If the winners are short-term speculators, the drop may be immediate as they offer the coins for sale.

(On the other hand, perhaps there are people who are not buying BTC now because they hope to get a better deal at the auction.  If they do not win the auction, perhaps they will start buying from the market.)

... wrong, this a "Buy the news" moment, because all the psychology that you meticulously detail here with great effort has already been priced in awaiting this announcement. Only a few slow beartards traders will get caught expecting any drop ... that's all folks, next stop 2 fitty.

The bidders would try to keep price low till the March 5.

[Sitarow]

2:55PM EST

[NotHatinJustTrollin]

There is no bounce lol

[NotLambchop]

[got nothing]

How is it you're so consistently & unabashedly wrong?

[JorgeStolfi]

... wrong, this a "Buy the news" moment, because all the psychology that you meticulously detail here with great effort has already been priced in awaiting this announcement. Only a few slow beartards traders will get caught expecting any drop ... that's all folks, next stop 2 fitty.

You assume that traders are perfectly rational.  But the only rational price expectation for the bitcoin price is 0/0 = NaN.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[fonzie]

The bidders would try to keep price low till the March 5.

That´s what bullscammers tried to tell us during the last 2 auctions....
We all know what happened to the price in the months after the auctions..  

[JorgeStolfi]

all the previous auctions were won by newcomers.
Second market Bagholdin inc.
&
Tim Draper, CEO of Bitcoin bagholders

SecondMarket only organized syndicates of small buyers who could not afford a full 2000 BTC bid.  Those small buyers (from a couple hundred BTC to 1000 BTC, IIRC) took 48'000 BTC in the second auction.

I would guess that they are newcomers.  Someone who bought a few thousand BTC at sub-100 prices would not care to buy a few more at 370, I would think.

[fonzie]

I highly doubt that this time there will even be enough bidders for all 50k coins if the price is >100$
They struggled to find enough last time. Market is saturated.